저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 우버 대규모 투자를 다룸. CEO 다라 코스로샤히 체제에서 우버가 흑자 전환(EBITDA·GAAP 흑자)했고, EV/총예약액 0.9배, EV/EBITDA 18배 미만으로 저평가라는 주장. 2025년 1분기 총예약액 18%, EBITDA 30~37% 성장 전망. 네트워크 효과로 리프트 대비 우위, 자율주행을 위협이 아닌 플랫폼 기회로 봄. 규제·거시경기·경쟁 리스크도 언급. 장기 투자 관점의 낙관론이며 개별 매매 지시는 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone welcome back we're going deep on Uber today Uber yeah Uber specifically uh Bill amman's recent huge investment in them oh yeah Amman that's a that's a big deal yeah he's not known for making small moves not at all our source is this great article all about it okay and it's really interesting stuff the more I read it I uh I think I see why Amman is so excited about this yeah it seems like he thinks the market is massively underestimating Uber right now h interesting yeah and and it all starts with their CEO Dora Kos Shahi okay Amman calls him superb which is High Praise coming from him right and says that Kos for Shahi has transformed Uber into a quote highly profitable and cash generative growth machine unquote well he certainly uh he's turned things around from where they were a few years ago that's for sure yeah I remember back in like 2017 Uber was burning through cash they had negative IA yeah it was not a pretty picture but by 2024 things were looking very different totally different billions in operating cash flow positive IA even positive Gap profitability wow now for anyone who's not a financial whiz eitas stands for earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization right it basically measures a company's profitability from its core operations without all the extra Financial stuff exactly so you can see how the actual business is performing yeah and GAP profitability means they're making money overall according ording to like the standard accounting rules the generally accepted accounting principles yes okay so Uber has gone from losing money to making money a true turnaround story yeah but amman's bullishness goes deeper than that okay he's really digging into the valuation metrics and he thinks Uber is trading at a massive discount to its intrinsic value so he thinks it's worth more than what the market is currently saying exactly one metric that he highlights is Enterprise Value as a multiple of gross bookings right which is currently sitting at pretty low .9 times yeah but uh what does that actually mean for like the average person who doesn't speak Finance well basically it means that if you look at the total value of uber like including its stock and debt okay and compare that to the total value of all the bookings they make like for rides food delivery everything that ratio is only 0.9 times which is really low compared to similar companies so it's like they're on sale in a way yes Aman seems to think that the market isn't fully appreciating Uber earning potential interesting he also points to the Enterprise Value to eitaa Which is less than 18 time 2025 estimat right and that also suggests a potential undervaluation especially when you consider that Uber is projected to grow significantly they're predicting 18% growth in Gross bookings and a 30 to 37% surge in IA just in the first quarter of 2025 wow if those numbers come true that's uh that's some serious growth potential yeah the kind of growth that makes investors pay attention so why should all this matter to like the average listener well if Amman is right and Uber really is undervalued then that could mean some pretty big returns for investors oh okay so it's about finding those hidden gems those companies that the market might be overlooking exactly I like it but amman's thesis goes beyond just the financials oh yeah he sees a real fundamental shift happening in Uber's business model it's [clears throat] not just about ride sharing anymore right they've been branching out yeah KR Shahi has been [clears throat] really expanding their reach they're moving from just getting people from point A to point B to basically moving anything from point A to point B so they're becoming more like a general transportation platform exactly you need groceries order them on Uber you need a package delivered Uber can do that too makes sense this diversification is a big part of their growth strategy and it seems to be working oh so well the article mentions that their monthly active platform consumers have grown from 62 million in 2017 to 71 Million by the end of 2024 wow that's almost triple the users yeah and this leads to something called Network effects which is a really interesting concept Network effects yeah could you explain that a little bit sure so basically it's like a snowball effect the more customers Uber attracts the more appealing it becomes for drivers and businesses to join the platform okay and then the more drivers and businesses there are the more options and convenience Uber can offer to his customers ah so it's like a positive feedback loop that keeps growing and growing exactly it creates a really powerful growth cycle that makes it hard for competitors to keep up but couldn't that kind of network effect end up stifling competition and maybe even innovation in the market that's a good point and it's something that Regulators are definitely looking at as these platform businesses become more and more common yeah it's a tough balance for sure but in Uber's case this network effect has helped them become the dominant player in the market especially compared to their main rival Lyft lift yeah they've been strling to keep up even though lft actually started with a larger market share Uber has been steadily gaining ground shows you the power of those Network effects yeah it's like the tortoise and the hair story except the tortoise is winning uhhuh so Amman sees this dominance over lft as another positive sign for Uber's future but there's one more piece of this puzzle that's really fascinating what's that amman's take on autonomous vehicles self-driving cars yeah most people probably see them as a threat to Uber's business model right if you don't need drivers what do you need Uber for but Amman and apparently K Rahi see it differently oh really they see autonomous vehicles as an opportunity not a threat huh how so well that's where things get really interesting and we'll dive into that in the next part of our Deep dive ooh a cliffhanger I like it yeah stay tuned because we're about to explore how Uber could actually benefit from the rise of self-driving cars can't wait welcome back okay so that Cliffhanger about Uber and self-driving cars yeah has me really curious to hear more definitely an interesting angle but before we get too far ahead of ourselves I think it's important to acknowledge some of the challenges that Uber is facing right now oh for sure they're not without their hurdles yeah like no company operates in a vacuum nope even one as big and ambitious as Uber exactly so what are some of the big ones well one of the biggest I think is regulation ah yeah the everchanging regulatory landscape it's a constant battle for companies like uber especially in the ride sharing and delivery Industries governments all over the world are still trying to figure out how to regulate these businesses it's a new frontier yeah and the rules are constantly changing it's like navigating a maze with moving walls ooh that's a good analogy right they have to balance so many different factors like what well worker rights for one oh right making sure drivers are treated fairly then there are safety concerns yeah passenger safety data privacy and of course making sure there's Fair competition in the market right preventing monopolies and all that does lot to juggle yeah and the article definitely highlights this regulatory uncertainty as a key risk factor for investors because one new law or regulation could have a huge impact on Uber's bottom line absolutely it adds a whole layer of unpredictability and on top of that you've got the whole economic situation to worry about oh yeah can't forget about the macro stuff inflation Rising interest rates the possibility of a recession all those things can affect consumer spending which directly impacts a company like uber right if people are feeling the pinch they might cut back on things like ordering takeout or hailing rides exactly discretionary spending is often the first to go when times get tough so that's where Uber's diversification strategy could really help them yeah spreading the risk by having multiple revenue streams like rides food delivery Logistics they can potentially cushion the blow if one area starts to slow down right like having a backup plan it's always good to have options but even with all that diversification Uber still faces intense competition oh yeah for sure I mean they might be the big dog in many markets but they're always new players trying to get a foothold you've got companies like Lyft still nipping at their heels and then there are all those new hyper local delivery services popping up some of them are even using autonomous delivery robots it's getting crowded out there it is so how does Uber stay ahead of the game right how do they maintain their Edge well this is where their size and scale really come into play ah the power of those Network effects we were talking about earlier exactly they have a huge network of drivers and Riders which gives them a big Advantage they can offer more competitive pricing faster delivery times a wider selection of options it's hard for smaller companies to compete with that it's almost like the bigger they get the stronger they become yeah kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy but they can't just sit back and relax oh definitely not they have to keep innovating improving their services and adapting to changing consumer preferences if they become complacent someone else will come along and disrupt them it's the nature of the Beast right they have to stay ahead of the curve and that brings us back to those autonomous vehicles ah yes the self-driving Revolution remember that idea of uber becoming the operating system for the whole autonomous vehicle ecosystem I do that's where we're headed next this is a crucial part of understanding amman's long-term vision for Uber Le the way let's see what the future holds yeah okay so autonomous vehicles self-driving cars the future of Transportation the future we were talking about how agman sees them as an opportunity for Uber not a threat right it seems counterintuitive at first yeah because you'd think that if cars can drive themselves people wouldn't need Uber anymore right that's a logical conclusion but Amman and KR Shahi they see a different path okay I'm all ears so imagine this instead of uber trying to build and maintain its own Fleet of self-driving cars okay which would be a huge she undertaking oh yeah super expensive complicated all the technology the infrastructure the regulations it's a logistical nightmare for sure so instead of doing all that Uber becomes the platform that connects all the different self-driving car companies with passengers they're like the middleman exactly the Hub the central nervous system of the whole autonomous vehicle ecosystem okay I'm starting to see the vision here you open the Uber app and you've got options a traditional Uber with a driver a wayo self-driving car a cruise autonomous vehicle all right there in one place so it's like they're aggregating all these different Services exactly Uber becomes the Amazon of Transportation I like that analogy it's brilliant they leverage their existing strength their massive user base their technology their brand recognition and they become the go-to platform for all things autonomous Transportation exactly they're basically preempting the future positioning themselves as The Gatekeepers of this new era of Mobility smart but wouldn't it be hard to get all those self-driving car companies to play ball yeah that's a good question why would they want to partner with Uber well put yourself in their shoes okay you've spent years developing this amazing self-driving technology bleeding edge stuff but you still need a way to connect those cars with passengers to manage all the logistics to handle the payments that's true and Uber already has all that in place plus a Global Network of users ready to go exactly so it's a win-win the self driving car companies get access to a huge market and Uber stays relevant even essential in a world without human drivers it's a pretty genius strategy it is and it fits perfectly with amman's overall thesis about Uber being undervalued right this move into the autonomous vehicle space just adds another layer of potential growth and market dominance makes sense I'll admit when we started this deep dive I wasn't totally convinced yeah I was curious to see where this was going but after really digging into to amman's rationale and exploring all the different facets of Uber's business their financial performance their growth strategy their plans for the future I'm starting to see why he's so bullish it's been an eye-opening conversation for short we've covered a lot of ground today from questioning amman's investment to understanding the forces driving Uber's Evolution it's a reminder that the business world is constantly changing and that companies need to be adaptable and Innovative to survive absolutely and sometimes the companies that seem most vulnerable to disruption end up being the ones who lead the way so what do you think yeah what's the takeaway for our listeners do you agree with amman's assessment do you see Uber as a company poised for long-term success we've given you the information the questions the evidence to consider now it's up to you to form your own conclusions do your own research weigh the risks and rewards that's what makes investing so interesting but remember the world of business is unpredictable things can change quickly so stay curious stay informed and keep those questions coming thanks for joining us for this deep dive on Uber see you next time
Comments 0