저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
스탠리 드러켄밀러가 마이크로소프트 주식을 전량 매도하고 메르카도리브레에 대규모 투자한 것을 분석. MSFT는 AI 투자 대비 수익성·매출성장 둔화 우려와 높은 밸류에이션(PER 약 30배)이 매도 배경으로 제시됨. MELI는 라틴아메리카 전자상거래 점유율 28%, 4분기 매출 37% 성장, 순이익 3배 이상 증가, 예상 이익성장률 32% 등을 근거로 긍정적 전망 제시. 다만 영상은 한 투자자의 과거 시점 관점일 뿐이며 현재 보유 여부는 불확실하다고 명시.
다듬은 글
Okay. So, you know, when a big-time investor like Stanley Ducken Miller makes a major move with their portfolio, Yeah. it kind of makes everyone else sit up and take notice, right? Yeah. You got to you got to pay attention. Especially with a track record like Ducken Miller. Exactly. We're talking about like 30% annual returns.
Oh. Over three decades. That's incredible. That's not luck, right? That's serious skill. That's remarkable. So recently he did something pretty big. Oh. And it has everyone buzzing. Oh, really? Yeah. I'm curious. It's um What do you do? It involves Microsoft and Marcato Libre. Oh, interesting. So, he completely sold off all of his Microsoft stock.
Wow. And pumped a ton of money into Marcato Libre. Okay. So, that was a major shift. Yeah. Huge. And Microsoft was his biggest investment. Oh, wow. Just last year. So, a complete 180. Yeah. So, what's the thinking there? That's what we're going to try to figure out today. love it, right? Like why would someone like Drunken Miller, right, step away from a giant like Microsoft?
It doesn't make sense on the surface, right? I mean, Microsoft is the biggest huge company. They are the dominant force in enterprise software. Yeah. And cloud computing for sure. And on the other hand, you have Marcato Libra, which is like the top dog in Latin America and the e-commerce platform. Yeah.
For e-commerce and retail advertising. Okay. So, we really want to unpack his thinking here. Yeah. Let's get into it. Let's figure out what's going on. So, first let's talk about Microsoft, okay? Because big company, it's not like there's some struggling startup. No, not at all. Like they are a global powerhouse.
They're dominant. The biggest enterprise software vendor in the world. Yeah. Worldwide. And number two in public cloud services when you look at revenue. Yeah. When we talk revenue. Yeah. Yeah, very very powerful position to be in. And they're not just sitting around either, right? They're not complacent.
They're investing heavily in AI. Yeah. Which makes sense. Everyone is. It's the future. Yeah. And they're going all in. How much are they investing? Well, they're projecting to spend like $80 billion. Wow. On data center infrastructure this year alone. That's a lot of servers. It is. And that's not all.
But there's more. They're also pouring $13 billion into Open AI. The folks behind Chat GPT. Yeah, the Chat GPT people. That's a bold move, right? So, clearly they believe in AI. They're putting their money where their mouth is. They are. So, how's that been working out for them? Well, it seems like it's paying off so far.
Yeah. At least on the surface. You know, their partnership with OpenAI has made Microsoft Azure the go-to cloud platform. Oh, I see. For generative AI. Makes sense. So companies wanting to use those services, they're flocking to Azure. So Microsoft is positioned really well there. Makes sense. And the adoption rates for their AI products are crazy high.
Oh, really? Over 85% of Fortune 500 companies. Wow. We're using at least one Microsoft AI product. Okay. So they're everywhere. Yeah. Interesting. And their Microsoft 365 co-pilot Yeah. has adoption rates around 70%. That's impressive. So that's like their AI assistant, right? Built into the office suite.
Built right into all the office apps. So people seem to like it. So it sounds like things are going well for Microsoft on the AI front. It does. But here's the thing. Okay. If everything seems so rosy, why did Draen Miller sell all his Microsoft stock? Yeah, that's the big question, isn't it? It is a head scratcher.
Like what's he seeing that we're not, right? Is there something under the surface? Yeah. Yeah. Well, the source material points to a few potential concerns. Okay. I'm all ears. Well, one of the biggies Yeah. is whether Microsoft can actually make money from all this AI stuff. So, it's about profitability.
Exactly. Not just adoption, right? Because they're spending a ton. Yeah, they are. But will those investments translate into profits? Right. And sustainable profits, too. Yeah. Because some investors are getting worried about whether Microsoft can actually turn all this AI spending Yeah. into cold hard cash.
That makes sense. Especially since their revenue growth is slowing down. Oh yeah. Gil Laura at DAD Davidson. Okay. He pointed this out. What did he say? He said that you have this increasing capital expenditure, right? But decelerating revenue. Okay. And that leads to a lower return on investment. So they're spending more, right?
But making less. not making less, but the rate of growth is slowing. Okay. So, the returns are diminishing. Yeah. Exactly. And it's not just about Microsoft's own spending either. It's the whole AI landscape that's getting super competitive. Makes sense. A lot of companies jumping on that bandwagon.
Yeah. And some of these newcomers are shaking things up. Oh, really? Yeah. Like Deepseek, for example. Okay. I'm not familiar with them. They figured out how to train large language models. Okay. Which is like the heart of AI. Yeah. The core tech. Yeah. But they're doing more efficiently for way less money than open AI.
Oh, that's interesting. Yeah. So, if others can develop similar AI models, right, but cheaper Yeah. that could squeeze Open AI's profits, right? And that could impact Microsoft. Exactly. Because Microsoft has a big stake in Open AI. So, if Open AI makes less money, so does Microsoft. Microsoft gets a smaller piece of the pie.
Yeah. But here's an interesting counterpoint. Okay. The source material also mentions that cheaper AI models, okay, could actually be good for Microsoft. How so? Well, because it could make AI more accessible. Oh, I see. So more businesses and people could use it and that would increase the demand. Oh, I see.
Yeah. For AI cloud services, which is where Microsoft comes in with Azure. Exactly. So it's like a trade-off, right? Lower profit per unit but higher volume. Yeah. Maybe lower profit margins. but potentially much higher volume. Interesting. So, it's not a simple equation. No, not at all. Now, let's talk valuation.
So, Microsoft's expected annual earnings growth, yeah, through fiscal year 2026, okay, is projected to be around 13%. Okay. Solid growth. And at the time, Dreen Miller sold. Okay. The stock was trading at about 30 times earnings. Okay. So, that's the PE ratio. Yeah. That's the price toearnings ratio.
Meaning investors were paying 30 bucks for every dollar of expected earnings for a company like Microsoft. Yeah. That's not crazy high. No, not really. Especially with that growth rate. But it's not cheap either, right? And the article points out Yeah. that the PE ratio was even higher. Okay. When Dreen Miller decided to sell.
Oh, so it was even more expensive back then. It was. So maybe he felt like the stock had gotten a little ahead of itself. Maybe a little overvalued. Yeah. Yeah. Given those uncertainties around the AI investments, right? And maybe he wasn't totally convinced that those AI investments would pay off as much as the market was expecting.
That makes sense. So, let's move on to Marcato Libra now. Okay. The other side of the trade. Yeah. So, Dr. Miller dumped Microsoft and loaded up on Marcato Libra. Yeah. And what's interesting is Marcato Libra is dominant in a totally different market. They're like the Amazon of Latin America. Oh, wow.
Okay. Yeah. They run the biggest online marketplace down there. Okay. And last year they had like 28% Wow. of all regional retail e-commerce sales. That's a huge chunk. It is. And e-arketer thinks that by 2026 their market share will hit 30%. Wow. So they're just going to keep growing. Yeah. They're in a great position.
And this is in a region where e-commerce is still expanding rapidly. Exactly. And their growth is driven by something called what's that? The network effect. Okay. I've heard that term before. Yeah. It's basically it means the more people use the platform, the more valuable it becomes. Oh, right. Yeah.
Yeah. So, in Maricotta Libra's case, the more merchants they have, the more attractive it is to shoppers, right? Because more more selection, better prices. Yeah. Yeah. And the more shoppers they have, the more merchants want to join, right? Because that's where the customers are. Exactly. Okay, I got it.
So, it's a virtuous cycle. Yeah, it's a good way to put it. More merchants attract more shoppers, right? More shoppers attract more merchants. makes them the clear leader and that just keeps building like a snowball effect. Yeah. Just keeps getting bigger and bigger and they're not just an online marketplace either.
Oh, really? They've built this whole ecosystem. Okay. Around their core business. What else do they do? Well, they do payments. Oh, okay. They do fulfillment. So, like shipping and logistics. Yeah. They have the fastest and most extensive logistics network. Okay. In all of Latin America. That's huge in a place with challenging infrastructure.
It is. And they do advertising, too. Oh, wow. So, they're hitting all the key areas. They are. They're the biggest retail advertiser. Yeah. In Latin America. Wow. So, they're really leveraging their platform and data. Yeah. That's to build this whole comprehensive offering. So, they're not just a marketplace.
They're like a one-stop shop. Yeah. They're like a one-stop shop for e-commerce in Latin America. That's impressive. And we can't forget about their fintech business. All right. They're big in that, too. Yeah. That's a big part of their story. Where do they stand in that market? They're the biggest fintech platform in Argentina.
Okay. Chile and Mexico. Wow. And second biggest in Brazil, which is a massive market. Huge market. So, they're a major player in fintech as well. They are. And it supports their e-commerce business, right? Seamless payments, but it also gives them a foothold, okay, in the broader digital payments market.
So, they're tapping into that growth as well. They are. So, they're firing on all cylinders. Sounds like it. Now, let's look at their recent financials. Okay. Their fourth quarter numbers were amazing. Oh, really? How so? Their revenue jumped 37%. Wow. To $6.1 billion. Okay, that's serious growth. And their commerce segment, their core business, Yeah.
that grew 44%. Wow. Even faster. Yeah. And fintech grew 28%. So, both segments doing really well. Yeah. What about profitability? their net income, okay, more than tripled. Wow, that's incredible. Yeah. So, they're making a lot more money. Yeah, they are. So, those numbers really back up the story. Yeah, the numbers speak for themselves.
They do. So, what about the future? Well, the outlook for Marcato Libre is extremely bright. Okay. Why is that? Because e-commerce penetration in Latin America, okay, is still pretty low compared to what? Compared to the US. Oh, okay. Yeah, we're pretty much maxed out here. Yeah, it's close to 30% in the US.
Okay. Okay. But in Latin America, it's only around 15%. Oh, wow. So, a lot of room to grow. Huge room to grow. That makes sense. So, as more people in Latin America come online and start shopping online, Yeah. Marcato Libre is poised to benefit. They're in the perfect position. They are. And digital payments are also growing rapidly.
Okay. Which is great for their fintech business, right? Synergy. Yeah. And retail advertising spending in Latin America. Okay. Is expected to more than triple. Wow. By 2028. So, they're going to benefit from that, too. Yeah. with their advertising business. So, they've got multiple growth drivers. They do.
It's a pretty compelling story. Yeah, it is. What about the valuation, though? Well, analysts are expecting Okay. Marcato Libresy's earnings to grow at like 32% annually. Wow. That's incredible. Through 2026. That's some serious growth. It is. And their current valuation is around 54 times earnings.
That's a pretty high multiple. It is. But with that kind of growth rate, it's understandable. Yeah. The market's pricing in that growth and they have a good track record above of beating earnings estimates. Oh, so they consistently outperform expectations. They do by an average of 6% over the past six quarters.
Okay, so they're not just hitting their targets. No, they're exceeding them. Okay, that's good. And the stock has gone up. Has it? 334%. Wow. Over the past 5 years. So investors have been rewarded handsomely. They have. So there's a lot of confidence it seems like it in their long-term growth. Okay.
So let's take a step back now, okay, and try to connect the dots. The risks associated with AI were too high at least for him. Yeah. At least at that time, given Microsoft's valuation and the competitive landscape. Yeah. And he saw more certainty, well, in Marcato Libra's growth. So bird in the hand is worth two in the bush kind of thing.
Yeah, maybe a little bit of that. Okay. And the difference in expected earnings growth, yeah, is pretty stark. What are we talking about here? 13% for Microsoft, right, versus 32% from Ricardo Libre. That's a huge difference. It is. And that probably played a big role. It had to in his decision. Yeah.
Now, remember, this is just one investor's perspective. Yeah. One very successful investor. Yeah. But still just one perspective at a specific moment in time, right? This was back in the fourth quarter, right? So things could have changed since then. Who knows what he's holding now? Who knows? Right.
Right. But it's still a fascinating case study. It is because it highlights those contrasting investment philosophies. So you have the bet on cutting edge AI. Yeah. Which could be revolutionary. Yeah. If it works out, but it's a big if. It is. It's very uncertain. And you have the bet on established dominance.
Yeah. In a growing market like Mercyri in Latin America. Yeah. So for you the listener, what's more important to you? Yeah. That potential for massive returns, right? But with high risk. Yeah. High uncertainty or the more predictable growth. Okay. of an established player, but maybe less upside. Yeah.
Maybe lower potential returns, right? But less risk. So, which path do you choose? It's a question every investor has to answer. Yeah. There's no right or wrong answer. It depends on your own goals, your risk tolerance, your time horizon, all sorts of factors. Yeah. So, let's recap our deep dive here.
Okay. Den Miller sold Microsoft, right? Probably because he was worried about the AI investments. Yeah. How profitable they would be. Maybe he felt the stock was overvalued and he bought more Marcato Libra because he likes their strong position in the Latin American e-commerce market and their growth potential.
Lots of room to run. Exactly. So he's basically betting on betting on the continued growth of e-commerce in Latin America. Okay. And the ability of Makuta Libre. Yeah. To capitalize on that growth to remain the dominant player. Yeah. So, it's a bet on a region, okay, and a company. So, what does this all tell us about the state of tech investing?
That's a great question. Like, is this a sign of things to come? Yeah. Is this a broader trend? Are investors shifting away from those big tech companies? We're looking for opportunities elsewhere in emerging markets. Yeah. Maybe places where the growth is more predictable, more tangible. Yeah. So, it's something to think about. It definitely is food for thought. It is. What do you think?
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