저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 4분기가 생애 최대 랠리 중 하나의 시작이 될 것이며 내년까지 이어질 수 있다고 주장한다. 연말 S&P500 8200 돌파 가능성을 언급하며, 기술주(매그니피센트 7)와 AI 추세 지속을 근거로 든다. 단기적으로는 중간선거 전 위험회피 구간을 예상한다. 진행자는 Fed 금리 인상 후 수혜 ETF(EQRR)와 에너지주를 소개하지만 이는 발언자의 예측이 아니다.
다듬은 글
I think the fourth quarter could be one of the most powerful periods of growth, and I believe it will continue into next year as one of the biggest rallies of our lifetimes. So, Tom Lee says the fourth quarter will be the start of one of the biggest market rallies of our lifetimes. Plus, we'll look at which ETFs or stocks to look out for after the Fed just raised rates.
Yes, but we haven't seen that big pullback that you warned viewers about and that you think could have been caused by the Fed yet. So how do you explain all this? Well, the factors pointing to a possible major pullback are still present: Fed market testing, margin debt, IPOs, leverage, but pessimism reigns now, and markets are not peaking in pessimism.
So I think we're in for a significant rally by the end of the month. And then, when the mood becomes optimistic, all the other negative factors may appear.
What about the midterm elections? What risk do you think is associated with the midterm elections? Again, this will be a period of risk aversion because people don't like binary outcomes, so they will just wait for the elections.
But the political deadlock that markets are assuming, such as the Senate and House of Representatives going to the Democrats, is actually a good scenario, because stocks usually do better in such a situation. And do you think this is still relevant? Yes, I think that after the elections the situation will improve, because this year has been very difficult, and I know that it was not easy for many viewers.
I think the fourth quarter could be one of the most powerful periods of growth, and I believe it will continue into next year as one of the biggest rallies of our lifetimes.
What do you think is the real figure, 75 or 85 on the S&P at the time of our conversation? Although there isn't that much of a year left.
Yes. What do you think is a reasonable expectation until then? I think we can easily exceed 8200 by the end of the year. This will happen because the technology sector will take the brunt of the burden. The "Magic Seven" you mentioned earlier is starting to come to life. And software companies, which were important to keep in the portfolio, are showing better results.
So until the AI trend fades, which we don't expect, I think the market will come out of this correction. We have significant growth at the end of the year.
So, AI commerce is obviously a key topic of conversation wherever you go, especially after the events of this weekend. What do you think the implications, if any, will be for trade itself?
Well, this weekend is a reminder that AI is central to the growth of the US economy and the global economy. And I think it's appropriate to worry about certain safeguards, because it literally creates new economics, new ethical issues, and new security concerns. But we are really in good hands. These are really responsible companies, and I support the idea that maybe we should set ethical boundaries or, you know, limits on what's going on.
Now let's check out this article from Barron's about which ETFs and stocks to look out for after the Federal Reserve raised rates. So, here is the article I want to share with you. The headline reads: This ETF should rise as interest rates go up. It's not too late to invest in this fund now, is it?
So let's look at some key points. The ProShares Equity for Rising Rates ETF is up 36% this year thanks to significant attention to energy stocks amid rising oil prices, right? Since the beginning of this year, the ETF has attracted 12.3 million in net assets, bringing its total assets to 35 million.
So it's relatively small and still growing, right? The Federal Reserve raising interest rates at today's September meeting looks like a done deal, doesn't it? And Wall Street is even starting to consider the possibility of another rate hike this year, right? So this might make some investors nervous, but of course there are stocks that can thrive on this, right? As soon as the Fed starts raising rates, right? The cycle of our tightening monetary policy.
So, that's where the ProShares Equity ETF comes in, right? So the price is now $86 and the ticker is EQRR, right? So, it has a dividend yield of 1%. So this is an ETF to look at if you want to diversify and reduce your risks.
And, of course, several types of fixed-income funds, including floating-rate funds and other funds holding short-term U.S. Treasury bills, benefit from higher interest rates, but there are few stocks that can thrive when the Fed raises rates, right? As the name suggests, the ProShares ETF invests in stocks that are likely to rise when interest rates go up, right?
So, it has passive management, which means there is no team that picks individual stocks. The fund tracks assets in the Nasdaq Large Cap US Index, designed for a period of rising rates, right? So this ETF delivered on its promise in 2022, the last time the Fed was in the midst of a major rate hike cycle, right? It showed a total return, including dividend reinvestment, of over 2% in 2022, while the S&P 500 fell over 18%, right?
So, it's been a pretty tough year for the stock market, right? Many people have suffered significant losses, and the market has displaced many, right? So, on top of everything, he kept your money, right? You got at least the minimum of 2%, right? So, could history repeat itself? There are some challenges, but the fund may still have potential for growth, right? So, this might be a pretty safe option, right?
And it's true that there was a question about how much the Fed would raise rates. The Federal Reserve rate is currently between 3.5% and 3.75%, right? After three reductions last year, but now it's at four, right? This is after the FOMC meeting I'm writing this at, but it's worth noting that the rate was rising to 5.25–5.55% in 2023 after a series of hikes to combat rapid inflation following the COVID pandemic, right?
So, another risk: Investors who want to buy this ETF now should also remember that the fund is relatively small and it has already made phenomenal returns, right? It's up 36% this year alone, thanks in large part to energy stocks that have soared on rising oil prices, right? And against the backdrop of events in the world around Iran.
So, Marathon Petroleum, right? Which has a market cap of 115 billion, price 413, right? So Andeavor Energy, which has a market cap of $115 billion, is pretty similar. Ticker VLO. And we have ConocoPhillips, ticker COP, market cap of 169 billion. You know, these companies have pretty high dividends, right? Here, the dividend yield is 2.5%, then Valero—1.1%, and Marathon—almost 1%.
So, investors continue to invest in the fund because of its high returns, right? It looks like it will continue like this, right? The ETF's strong performance is the main reason it attracted 12 million in assets this year, right? That's a significant portion of its total 35 million assets, according to FactSet. However, the fund remains relatively small compared to other ETFs, many of which have billions of dollars in assets. So he still has room to grow, right?
But, you know, proceed with caution, okay? ProShares could continue to benefit from other macro trends, such as in the technology sector, which is the fund's largest holding. It's up over 36%, thanks to stakes in super-popular cybersecurity companies like Zscaler, CrowdStrike, and Palo Alto being among the top 15 ETF holdings, right? The fund also owns shares of Nvidia and Alphabet, which should benefit from the AI boom, despite concerns about the pace of its adoption, right? This prompted executives from Anthropic and OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, to talk about slowing down AI, right?
The ETF also has almost 20% of assets in financial stocks, which have historically benefited from higher short-term and long-term interest rates, right? There are American Financial, JP Morgan Chase, MetLife, Raymond James and many other banks here, right? So, a Fed rate hike could support these and other investments, even if oil prices eventually fall, reducing the value of energy assets, right?
The ETF is relatively cheap, trading at just 14 times 2017 earnings, compared to a price-to-earnings multiple of about 18 for the S&P 500. In other words, investors shouldn't worry too much about how much the ETF has risen this year. There is still potential for growth, right?
That's all for today, friends. I hope I was able to give you some insight into this ETF. You might want to study it or pick some stocks that are in the fund's portfolio and are showing good results, right? Assuming that oil prices will rise if the conflict with Iran doesn't end, right? Then some stocks like Chevron, right? Some energy companies, right? They will likely increase in price due to rising oil prices. So this company is really making a profit from this. So that's a pretty good move, right?
For those who want to be one step ahead and find out where the market is heading, I would definitely recommend looking into this to see if it's a good fit for your portfolio, or looking into energy stocks. See if it works for you, but help with accounting or bookkeeping for your business.
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