저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
9월은 인플레 우려 완화와 FOMC 금리인상 가능성 감소로 주식에 강한 달이 될 것이며, 현 시장은 '걱정의 벽' 속 매수 기회라는 주장. 암호화폐 반등 선행 후 주식 바닥이 오늘일 수 있다고 봄. 로빈후드는 예측시장·신탁계좌 확대로 시총 1,090억달러에서 1조달러까지 상승 가능하다고 주장하며 개인적으로 100% 매수 의향을 밝힘. 이는 투자 조언이 아니라고 고지함.
다듬은 글
This is truly the moment when markets peak, when people are optimistic; You know, these highs were set in August when people were cautious, and they remain cautious now. So for me, he just appeared on CNBC and said September is going to be a strong month. Also, stay until the end and you will see which stock can grow 10 times from current levels.
I'm A now . Let's ask Tom Lee. He's the head of research at Fundstrat, he's a CNBC contributor, and he's back at post 9. Welcome back. Nice to see you, Tom. It's good that you're with us this month, which has already arrived. How are you feeling? Well, I know people are entering September with caution because markets are down, oil is up, yields are up, and people are talking about seasonality.
I will go against the grain and believe that these are the prerequisites for September to actually be a strong month for stocks. Why? Why? Well, first of all, I think inflation concerns are likely to subside this month. We have the employment report on Friday. Next week comes the August CPI, and then, of course, the FOMC rate decision in September.
I think the sequence of these events will show that inflation is weakening, and I believe that the chances of a rate hike in September may actually drop to zero. I mean, you thought we could hit 7,900 or 8,000 in August alone. Yes. We obviously didn't do that. So, aren't you being overly optimistic about this market, ignoring some of the challenges you yourself mentioned?
Inflation, higher rates, more expensive oil, you know, more hostility in the Middle East, among other issues around AI trade, data centers, etc. Yeah, and you know, of course it makes sense to worry about these things, but 7900-8000 to me should be a level where investors are optimistic. For me, I think there is a "wall of fear" here that is actually conducive to shopping.
I mean, fears of war, as you know, have historically created buying opportunities. And the AI sector still has a lot of room for improvement, in my opinion, so I'm curious that you have a growing chorus of warnings now. Yes. From many different angles. Scott Rubner from Citadel Securities, I talked about this a lot on Halftime.
I will do it again because he says that the short-term risk-reward ratio has changed. And he notes that the profits were great, but they are in the past. They are already behind. Retail investors remain buyers, but historically their activity decreases in September. Systematic exposition was restored.
Corporate demand will begin to fade. "Closed window" periods are returning, making share buybacks impossible. And after a significant drop in volatility, that is now also a thing of the past. He says it's worth using market power to reduce exposure and buy inexpensive protection. He adds that he does not expect a general bearish reversal, but only a tactical reset.
What do you think about this? These are all valid arguments. What's interesting is that, to me, this describes most of the cryptocurrency trading last month. You know, volatility went down, the role of retail went down, and we saw a rapid 30% growth. Cryptocurrencies, believe it or not, historically outperform the S&P by about a month.
So I think the situation for stocks is very similar. In fact , the bottom for stocks could even be today. But I think If you don't think that the cryptocurrency rebound could have happened for many other reasons. The Treasury Secretary's intervention in the bond market is drawing more attention to the $40 trillion deficit.
This whole complex of issues. So, why do you think that what could have been a one-off moment actually has potential? Well, I think when I look at the stock market today, one of the most talked about topics is inflation. And the fact that inflation remains high. We wrote about this last night that Fed research showed: the core PCE index may be flawed due to the impact of software accessories, namely flash memory.
It accounts for a third of all excess inflation this year, but most people don't encounter flash memory inflation in their daily lives. No, but they face, for example, fuel inflation. Right. So fuel , unfortunately, is something the Fed can't control, but other components of inflation look stable. Core PCE, when adjusted, is almost identical to the consumer price index, which is 2.4 .
So, if we get a 2.4 CPI next week, I think the market will lose its anxiety about inflation. Are people becoming too cautious too quickly? I mean that JP Morgan's trading division is moving to a tactically cautious- neutral position. Wells Fargo, we're getting cautious on the stock. Are all these people wrong?
Well, as you know, they're probably not wrong, but when everyone becomes cautious, it means that the consensus is already considering the cautious scenario. And unless the economy is going to fall sharply, as you know, this caution means that stocks can rise on bad news. In fact, it is when the last sellers have sold that markets begin to recover.
We've been talking a lot, every time you've been on the air lately, about this data center issue, which is now at a boiling point, or on the verge of a fairly steady boil. What impact do you think this will have on the broader market in early September? This is a real issue because, as we discussed, it resonates with voters.
And we see Republican governors supporting this by advocating for moratoriums. I just think the AI industry needs to do a better job of explaining its benefits. And I think they got that signal. It creates jobs and benefits users. And, of course, this is strategically important for the United States.
So I think this will definitely be a major topic even during the midterm elections. But once that's behind us, I think the story of the return on investment in AI is what matters to the stocks we care about . Although big banks like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are now issuing stock warnings, right? But Tom Lee is extremely optimistic.
He believes the wall of worry is actually making the market attractive to buy now. Now Robinhood is worth buying. Is there anyone else you have your eye on? You could say, essentially, "Hey, Apple has customer relationships, you know, Google and Meta have customer relationships." Robinhood could become one of the top five companies in terms of customer relations.
And in a world where Robinhood is going to be one of the " magic seven" or something like that in 10 years, and 10 trillion is the price of entry into that club. This is a 100x increase for Robinhood. Yes, and Robinhood probably won't consume much capital. They could buy back a lot of shares during that time.
So in reality the result should be better than 100x as the number of shares may decrease. Now let's look at an article from Barron's that covers Robinhood in a little more detail. So guys, this is an article about Robinhood that I want to share with you, and it's called " Robinhood Stock Soars on Wall Street Rating Upgrade, Platform Expansion." Some of the key points are that Robinhood shares jumped 15% on Thursday morning after a positive analyst report and more favorable forecasts for the company, right?
Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Scotia Bank upgraded Robinhood shares this week, and analyst Piper Sandler raised its price target, right? Robinhood is expanding its range of income diversification services, including adding trust accounts, robo- advisors, and a prediction market, right? This is what I think will take Robinhood to the next level, namely—the prediction market.
So they're entering this space, effectively competing with Kalshi and Polymarket, right? This is quite an interesting market where you can bet on football and other crazy types of betting, which probably ruins the youth, but in any case it will bring them a lot of income. So I think that will be one of the main factors that will help them reach the next level or potentially grow 10 times from where they are now.
Given their market share, what's that, 119—is that market capitalization? Yes, 109 is the market capitalization. So I think Robinhood could actually become a trillion dollar market cap company. I really believe this. And if the situation calms down, these are some of the main driving forces, right? New trust accounts, right ?
That's actually pretty good, right? The company is constantly adding new features that it hopes will generate more business with existing customers, right? Especially as they grow older and acquire more assets, right? And they have new needs, right? Last month, Robinhood opened up the ability for all of its customers to set up trust accounts for children, right?
Clients have deposited about 150 million into trust accounts, with the average account size being over $500,000, according to the company, right? So, if we move on, they have football season, right? Robinhood's prediction market offers something that actually allows customers to bet on sports and other events, right?
He benefited from the start of the professional football season and the college football season this year, right? Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Mosi sees significant revenue growth potential from Robinhood's prediction market . In his research note dated September 2nd, he writes that volumes in the prediction market were extremely high during the summer, even in August, which is probably one of the slowest months in the sports calendar, right?
So the trading volumes in the prediction market have undoubtedly received a boost from the World Cup, given the company's focus on the US and the large gap in popularity between soccer and American football, right? Football season should be a big boost to Robinhood's forecast market revenue in Q3 and Q4 , right?
So, Moley writes that under his base case scenario, Robinhood could execute about 29 billion contracts from September to December 2026 , generating about $ 230 million in revenue and $ 960 million in annualized terms, right? So, according to the study, right ? So I think Robinhood is getting ready to become a trillion-dollar company .
They still have room to grow, but I really think Robinhood has a lot to offer, especially with their entry into the forecasting market and the introduction of trust accounts, right? This, you know, is pretty good strategic thinking , going beyond the usual, right? They are making a lot of strides, and I really think Robinhood can definitely reach a trillion.
A trillion is a pretty good 10x increase for me, considering the market cap is 109 billion. Stocks move in sync with cryptocurrency, so when crypto falls, stocks fall too. When cryptocurrency goes up, stocks go up too. They are currently tied to crypto, but the company is making investments and strategic moves to improve the stock's condition.
And I think Robinhood stock is worth buying. I would personally 100% buy Robinhood. This is not financial advice, so please do your own research. This is something I would probably do myself for my portfolio. But judging by what's happening, I think Robinhood is a good choice for my portfolio. So, that's all I wanted to say today, guys.
Thank you for joining . See you next time. I plan to do more research to find interesting opportunities and something worthwhile for you. I think one of my best predictions in the last few years was Palantir, when I said $35 before everyone rushed to buy it, right? I had Palantir for another $7 a share, but I recently mentioned it again at $35, before it skyrocketed, and I'm glad if any of you managed to take advantage of i.
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