저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee은 금리 상승과 중간선거 이슈로 9월 조정 가능성을 경고하며 S&P 7900~8000 부근에서 쉬어가는 조정을 예상한다. 엔비디아 밸류에이션은 낮고 소프트웨어 반등은 건강하다고 봤다. 소형주·산업재·금융주와 암호화폐(4분기 촉매)를 선호한다. 진행자 측은 9월 계절성 약세를 근거로 분할 매수 또는 9월 말 이후 진입을 제시했다.
다듬은 글
Because we think that there are midterm, uh , elections ahead. There is a whole movement in bond yields. Tom just appeared on CNBC with a warning for all investors for September. And also about when you can re-enter the market if you want to wait on the sidelines. Also, why Nvidia is considered cheap at a valuation of $5 trillion.
I'm . Now . Congratulations to Tom Lee. He is a managing partner at Fundstrat, head of research, and a CNBC contributor. Nice to see you again . Good to see you, Scott. I said at the very beginning of the show that the market reaction today is a bit strange. Nvidia is having a great day, but other sectors are mixed.
What do you think about this? Uh, I mean it's a healthy market, Scott, because Nvidia has been doing good numbers. So you want Nvidia to grow on good news, which it did. She has now Which rarely happens. Yes, that's rare. So , this breaks the stereotype that people don't care about profits. It really did n't matter.
And I think we're seeing a positive response in software, which of course is related to good performance , and these companies are derivatives of the AI trend. So I think it's a generally healthy reaction. The software movement is so specifically tied to what we've gotten from Salesforce , CrowdStrike, Okta, and others.
I'm curious about Meta falling, Amazon falling, Alphabet falling, AMD falling, Micron falling, Marvell falling, Corvus falling. I wouldn't expect this after Nvidia showed such results. Yeah, I mean, maybe people were using these assets and didn't have a stake in Nvidia, so they had to find a source of funding if they undervalued Nvidia.
And again, I've heard from many guests on CNBC that Nvidia's low multiplier stands out. So, they have huge forecast revisions, and the stock is not keeping up with them. Now the P/E ratio continues to decline. Yes. So what is your overall view of the market right now? We're not that far from the end of the year, believe it or not.
Do you still expect a significant correction before new growth, or does this report from Nvidia eliminate such a possibility? Um, well, I think August will end on a very strong note anyway. So, in our opinion, this week was a week of clarification. Part three of this event is tomorrow with Kevin Warsh, and I think the market should react positively, just like last year.
The S&P rose more than 4% immediately after his speech. And I think once we get to the 7900-8000 mark on the S&P, that would be a good point to pause. Pressure, and then also the unlocking of the offer. So I think the market will have to digest certain things along with the margin debt and that will cause a correction after this month.
How about the debate about data centers in the context of the midterm elections? This will only get louder as Election Day approaches. Now it's still a few months away. Yes. But it seems to be playing a role too, and that's why the market and these particular companies have n't been trading very well lately.
This is true. This is becoming an issue that is really resonating with voters, and it seems to have already affected the outcome of some elections, such as in Ohio. We see governors in Republican-controlled states and states that support data centers advocating for a pause. So, you are absolutely right.
This became a political issue. I don't know if this is fueled by China, which wants the US to slow down its AI efforts. But you are right . This is becoming a problem, and perhaps that is why secondary industries related to AI are performing better. What about beyond technology and AI? Can you direct your gaze in that direction?
What do you see that you like? Well, we still have a lot to like, because we know that the reporting season was not bad. In fact, small-cap companies have become some of the leaders . So I think they will maintain their leadership as they are in the process of re-evaluating relatively large companies.
We like the industrials and financial sectors, and I think crypto assets have a lot of catalysts for the fourth quarter. Many investors have missed the crypto market, even though crypto is currently the most profitable asset in the third quarter. Ethereum rose by 54%. If this continues in the fourth quarter, there will be a large capital inflow due to the FOMO effect.
But look, if you think yields are going to stay high and are a risk to the market overall—that's definitely on your list of possible risks—isn't that a problem for trading small-cap stocks? Uh -huh. Because you can see they are quite correlated. Yes. The stakes rise, Russell falls. The rates are falling, Russell is rising.
The stakes, well, they've gone up a bit. Russell stood up a little. Yes, you know, this requires some analysis. If rates rise due to an increase in the risk premium, it is bad for capitalization. If rates rise due to an overestimation of long-term growth, this is optimistic for small companies, because it is a good environment for mergers and acquisitions.
Well, this year was great, 21%—that's better than anything else. Yes. Therefore. According to Tom Lee, the market will have a lot to digest in September, so get ready for volatility, okay? However, around October, after falling 10% or more, stocks will turn around and go up by the end of the year, right?
I have this article to discuss with you the confirmation of new issues in September. Here's an article I want to share that says September is historically slow for the stock market, right? If you scroll down, you'll see that September is usually not a great month for US stocks , right? The average has declined by about 0.06% in September since inception, making it the only calendar month with a negative historical average, right?
But the September effect can be explained by three factors. It could be financial managers returning from summer vacations and rebalancing their portfolios, locking in profits and getting rid of loss-making assets for tax optimization, right? By the end of the year. Secondly, the Fed's interest rate decision in mid- September could, you know, cause selling pressure through widespread media coverage and, in fact, trigger the September effect.
This could force investors to prematurely reduce their positions at the end of August, right? So, investors can reduce their portfolios. So if you are a short-term investor, yes, of course you will change positions to show profits to your shareholders or the people who invest in your company. So, many investors are coming back and will be selling shares in September.
So yes, if something goes wrong, they lock in a profit. It may be tempting to follow this trend, but investors who sell stocks in September could miss out on big gains, right? Long-term profits and things like that. So, in the short term, the September effect is similar to the idea of " sell in May and walk away." May is also a slow month for stocks as investors often lock in profits before the summer, but those investors may return once the summer is over.
After the end of summer, September can also be a disappointment, but it's only a temporary slump, friends. If you are investing in the market for the long term and own the S&P 500, you should not sell it trying to guess the right moment. So, you know, that's... that's not very smart, right ? But if you have individual stocks and you try to guess the time, exit the market, and actively manage, then you probably will, but it's not worth doing.
Some still go out and try to come back, guessing market timing, which is extremely difficult to do. But the best thing is to stay invested. If you are not in the market right now and you have free funds, then I personally would wait until the end of September, after the midterm elections and when everything calms down, and then I would enter the market.
That's what I would do personally, right? So, as you can see, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual total return of about 10% since its inception in 1957. That's a total of 120% since the beginning of October. But if you invested in the S&P 500 from January 1 to August 31 of each year, then cashed out for the last four months and repeated this cycle every year, you would have a historical average of only 66%.
So guys, it's not the best time for the market, but here's a clear warning: if you're going to invest right now with a lot of cash, I'd probably put half or a quarter in and then wait and see what happens in September, right? While trying to guess market timing is not very good, September is likely to be a tough month for the market as a whole.
This is what I wanted to discuss with you. my community. Thanks for watching, and see you next time.
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