저자: PositiveInvesting채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
넷플릭스 주가가 고점 대비 40~50% 하락한 상황에서 빌 애크먼이 11억 달러어치를 매수해 주목받고 있다. 진행자는 매출 성장과 잉여현금흐름 흑자 전환(2022년)을 근거로 장기 투자 매력이 있다고 본다. 매출·현금흐름 지표: 넷플릭스는 꾸준한 매출 성장을 보이고 있으며, 2022년을 잉여현금흐름(FCF) 흑자 전환의 해로 보고, 이후 FCF가 크게 성장할 것으로 전망된다. EV/Sales 배수는 2015년 이후 보지 못한 수준으로 하락했다. 애크먼 매수 배경: 실적 발표 후 약 1주일 뒤 3.1백만 주를 매수해 상위 20대 주주에 올랐다. 창업자 리드 헤이스팅스도 최근 지분을 매입했다. 애크먼은 단기 부정적 심리 속에서 장기 잠재력이 과소평가되었다고 보았다. 애크먼이 제시한 강점: 구독형 반복 매출과 높은 고객 고착도, 최상위 경영진, 규모의 경제에 따른 해자 강화, 인플레이션 환경에서의 가격 결정력, 시간이 지나며 나타날 마진 확대, 그리고 이에 따른 잉여현금흐름 창출. 진행자 견해: 오늘 주가가 크게 올랐지만 여전히 저평가 가능성이 있으며, 북미는 포화 상태이나 해외 시장과 국제 콘텐츠 확대로 연평균 5~20% 수준의 복리 성장이 가능하다고 본다. 투자 판단은 장기 관점이다. 리스크: 영상에서 구체적인 손절 조건이나 단기 목표가는 제시되지 않았으며, 단기 시장 심리 악화 가능성은 언급되었으나 상세 리스크 분석은 부족하다.
다듬은 글
so guys here's a chart that i got from ticker.com on the revenue growth of a company that bill ackman just bought recently and we can see that this has been a very consistent growth name for the last few years and according to endless estimates this is projected to keep growing at that growth rate steadily for the foreseeable future and here if we tack on free cash flow expected we can see that this year 2022 it's a pivotal year for the company they're turning to a free cash flow positive business here and then moving forward it expects to grow this free cash flow quite substantially over the years now if you look at the ev to sales metric another metric that i love using to look at growth type stocks we can see the valuation here for this business has come down significantly from levels that we haven't seen since 2015.
so there's a lot of interesting stuff to discuss in this video again if you like the data that you just saw with analyst estimates and charts and that kind of stuff check out ticker i am affiliated with them but i only use services that i absolutely love so check it out in the description down below and i'll leave it as a pin comment as well if you want to look at some information on your favorite stocks so anyways looking at the metrics we just saw the business is quite healthy the revenue is growing quite well for your cash flow is expected to be extremely strong so you would expect the stock price to also be quite high pretty much nearest all-time highs right well here's the thing the stock's actually down you know 40 to 50 off of its highs but it's starting to get some big names purchasing shares like bill ackman so earlier this week guys bill ackman bought 1.1 billion dollars of netflix that's the stock we're talking about today and this was all done since the earnings report like a week ago or so and he suggests that investors are ignoring the long-term potential of this company his fund picked up 3.1 million shares on netflix and this actually makes them one of the top 20 shareholders in the company we also got some news late last week that the founder reed hastings purchased shares in the company as well so now you have two big names that are buying this stock after this massive sell-off you know what they say right there's many reasons to sell a stock maybe it's for taxes maybe it's for a purchase maybe you don't believe in the company anymore who knows there could be plenty of reasons but there's only one reason that you buy a stock and that's because you believe it's going to be worth more in the future and we have some big names and big money backing this one up and it's quite crazy for bill ackman to scale into an over billion dollar position so quickly you don't really see that too often guys and that shows you that he believes the price here especially in like the 300 range is extremely lucrative and now if you're watching this video you're like netflix oh my gosh that's like one of the worst stocks to invest in i'm bearish on the company i don't think their their future is going to be as strong all this stuff well guess what bill ackman's actually taking advantage of that negative sentiment that's out there right now and that's one of the big reasons he purchased this stock he said that many of his best investments actually emerged when other investors were focused on the short-term disregard grade companies and then him as a long-term investor that he swoops in picks up a bunch of shares and he will see the potential of this over time and this kind of goes hand in hand with my investment philosophy as well of course i know bill ackman here but i kind of follow the same logic i like looking for businesses that are undervalued but have great great long-term prospects maybe they have negative sentiment here in the short term all the more reason to buy shares at a cheaper price and i've seen this play out to my benefit time and time again so guys in my opinion netflix here meets the criteria that bill ackman is looking for which is why he added this to his pretty condensed portfolio now what he did was when he purchased this and he publicly announced this he actually created a letter he sent out to his shareholders for pershing square his fund and he kind of outlined some of his bullish points here and why he likes netflix so firstly you know the obvious netflix is subscription business they have recurring revenue and they have a sticky product it's a very lucrative business model next they have the best in class management team which is key to a company's success next they have an advantage of economies of scale which will strengthen its moat over time pricing power is another key metric here for growth especially in inflationary environments and netflix has that margin expansion this something he believes will come with time as the business keeps scaling and finally he believes all of this will lead to positive free cash flow generation for the company as we saw from the screenshots from ticker earlier in this video so it's clear bill ackman loves netflix here for long term the stock is up huge today but it's still potentially quite undervalued here and could be a great long-term investment this is one of those stocks that's kind of like a compounder stock yeah they have a couple hundred million subscribers but we look at the global reach for what they're actually doing and you know converting people from traditional cable to streaming sure north america may be a little saturated but the rest of the world still has a long long way to go and netflix now with their focus on international content has a really good chance of capturing a huge audience in years to come which will result in the stock kind of compounding you know 5 10 15 20 year-over-year anyways guys love to hear your thoughts and comments down below do you agree with bill ackman are you a buyer of netflix do you believe in this company long term love to hear your thoughts in the comments down below thank you so much for watching don't forget to rest positively i'll see you in the next one peace







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