저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 2019년 주가가 부진했지만 2020년에는 상승 가능성이 있으며, 중국 기가팩토리3 가동이 핵심 촉매라는 결론. 중국 생산 시작: 기가팩토리3 생산이 이달 시작될 것으로 보이나 증산 속도는 늦을 수 있다는 보도가 있음. 중국 생산이 되면 수입 관세·세금이 줄어 중산층도 살 수 있는 가격이 되어 판매가 크게 늘 것이라는 전망. 인도 목표 및 인도량: 2019년 인도 가이던스 3만~4만 대(실제로는 연간 인도량 약 25.5만 대 수준)를 언급하며 머스크는 이를 넘길 자신이 있다고 함. 현재 가이던스 하단보다 약 10.5만 대 부족하다는 점이 4분기 관건. 4분기 전망: 기가팩토리3가 주당 약 1,000대(목표 2,000대)를 생산하면 4분기 인도량이 약 10.8만 대로 가이던스 하단을 넘을 수 있음. 2,000대 달성 시 상단 돌파도 가능하며 이 경우 2020년 강한 랠리 기대. 밸류에이션: 시가총액 약 420억 달러, 연매출 약 250억 달러로 매출 대비 2배 미만이라 저평가. 쇼피파이·로쿠 등 성장주 대비 낮게 평가되며, 테슬라는 자동차보다 AI 등 기술기업에 가깝다고 주장. 체크포인트: 10월 25일 3분기 실적 발표에서 잉여현금흐름(FCF)과 4분기 인도 전망 확인 필요. 주가는 200달러대에서 횡보 중이며 2019년 한때 100달러 근처까지 하락. 진행자는 2019년 인도량이 40만 대에 도달하지는 않겠지만 근접할 것으로 예상. 리스크: 생산 증가 지연 보도, 경기침체 시 자동차 판매 감소 우려, 가이던스 미달 가능성.
다듬은 글
so Tesla has had a pretty rough 2019 as a stock here but going into 2020 things may be looking up for this company. One of the biggest catalysts around the corner is the Gigafactory 3 that's coming out in China, and today we'll be discussing some progress on this factory that any Tesla investor should be aware of. If you enjoy these Tesla videos, make sure to drop a huge like down below. 300 likes on this video, and we'll continue coverage of Tesla on this channel.
So we didn't get some news in the last week or so around the progress of the Giga Factory in China here, at Giga Factory 3. Sources say that it is set to start production this month. However, there are some reports saying that production may not ramp up as quickly as initially expected, and this could be bad for two reasons. Remember that most analysts that cover Tesla stock are very short-term thinking, and as a result they're going to be looking at what the stock is capable of and what the company is capable of in the next year or so. This means that any news or changes that affect the company in the short term will most definitely impact the stock price. So what I want to discuss are two situations here: if things work out, they could set up Tesla stock for a massive run in 2020; however, if things don't go according to plan, it could actually set up Tesla for another rough year ahead.
So the first thing being watched closely by these analysts is their production number in China. China is seen as a huge market for Tesla, and this is critical because it presents a massive opportunity for the company. The country is moving more and more towards an EV future, and Tesla is actually the only U.S. car manufacturer allowed to operate independently in China, and their cars are in big demand in the country. However, the way it stands right now, before this factory opens up, anyone who wants to purchase a car from Tesla and lives in China will need to import that car, and as a result pay huge fees for it. Because of this, the average person there cannot afford a Tesla, and even the basic Model 3s are priced at a more premium level due to those extra taxes and import charges applied to each order. And of course, for any company with its product to really succeed, it needs to reach the masses. It needs to appeal to the middle class and be affordable to the middle class, so that's something analysts are really focusing on here.
The second big thing that analysts and investors are also looking very closely at is the company's guidance for the number of vehicles they will be delivering in 2019. Tesla previously set a guidance number of around 3,000 to 4,000 vehicles delivered by the end of 2019 — this at the Skoll earlier this year. And Musk is confident the company will surpass this. They're pushing as many cars as possible, and they just had another record quarter, delivering 97,000 vehicles in Q3, and this is before the China factory has even opened. This brings their total number of cars delivered in 2019 to around 255,000 deliveries. This is another huge milestone for the company, because in the first six months of this year they've already surpassed the total number of deliveries they had in all of 2018. So this is going to be another record year for the company. However, as we reach the end of 2019, all eyes will be on that delivery guidance to see if the company can surpass it. As it stands today, the company is around 105,000 deliveries below the low end of their guidance, so that's going to be a number that's critical for both analysts and investors in the next quarter.
So the question to ask, as an investor or analyst, is whether Tesla is going to meet these expectations, or even better, exceed them. And if so, what is their plan to achieve that? The way I see it, these two things we just discussed are why the Tesla Gigafactory is so important for the company right now. Like we said, Tesla is selling cars to Chinese citizens, but because of the large import fees and taxes, many people there cannot afford these cars. Once the Gigafactory opens and they're able to produce these cars in China itself, that's going to bring down fees substantially, and the middle class will be able to afford these cars. This is going to set massive sales numbers for Tesla in my opinion, and definitely help contribute to a record order. In my opinion, it's quite possible that this factory alone will help Tesla achieve their 2019 guidance numbers. On top of this, they've also recently expanded into Europe, so demand there is picking up as well. Pretty much across the globe, you see demand for Tesla ramping up month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter, and year-over-year. That's actually a very good problem to have, because it shows that Tesla is creating a product that people want, and the company isn't able to fulfill those orders as quickly as customers place them. That's a really good problem to have, in my opinion.
Now, this new Gigafactory is expected to produce around 1,000 Model 3s a week going into 2020. So if we assume there are 11 weeks left in the year, that means 11,000 additional cars in Q4 will be delivered compared to Q3. That means Tesla can meet the same demand it had in Q3, around 97,000 cars, and if they can add another 11,000 from this new Gigafactory, that will set them up for delivery numbers of around 108,000 cars in Q4, which would help them beat the low end of their guidance. One good thing is that 1,000 cars a week is actually on the lower end of their target. Ideally they want to hit 2,000 cars a week by the end of 2019. If that happens, we may have a real shot at this company surpassing the higher end of their guidance, and if that happens, I bet we're pretty much set up for a strong rally in 2020. So as a Tesla shareholder, this is a very exciting time for the company, because it poses a huge opportunity. This doesn't come around that often, and I think a lot of investors are starting to realize this as the stock hovers around the $200 range. This hasn't really been a great year for Tesla overall in terms of stock price, but their fundamentals are still the strongest they've ever been. They're setting record delivery numbers, they have Gigafactory 3 opening soon, and they've established themselves as the number one EV player worldwide.
The company currently sits at around a $42 billion valuation, while bringing in trailing 12-month revenue of around $25 billion. So we're trading at less than 2 times sales, which in my opinion is low for a growth company. Shopify, for example, has around $1.3 billion in revenue with around a $36 billion market cap, and Roku brings in around $900 million in revenue with around a $12.4 billion market cap. Although these are not companies in the same sector or competitors to Tesla, I want to show you that the market typically prices growth stocks at a very rich valuation, but it's not doing that with Tesla, because investors are afraid of the auto industry and afraid of sales declining if we hit a recession. In my opinion, though, Tesla is much more of a tech company with its AI and all that, than a pure auto company. As a result, I strongly believe it should be valued much higher than it currently is.
So I'll be keeping a very close eye on Tesla's free cash flow next quarter, because this will show us how much money they're bringing in, and whether they can actually turn 2019 into a positive free cash flow year. Free cash flow is generally a great metric for the health of a business: it shows how much money the business generates that is usable for things like investments or dividends. The higher the free cash flow, the healthier the business. So I'm pretty excited to see Tesla reveal their next earnings on October 25th. It's definitely going to be something a lot of investors tune into, because they want to see whether Musk is still as confident in their delivery goals for 2019. I think that if you have a strong earnings report for Q3 and a strong outlook for Q4 with delivery numbers and all that, we'll most likely see a very strong rally in the stock sometime in 2020. The market has been suppressing the stock as much as it can in 2019, even hitting as low as $100 per share at one point. But in my opinion, the darkest days for Tesla are pretty much behind them, and there are a lot of positive things to look for in this company going into next year.
So I want you to let me know in the comment section below if you think Tesla will actually beat their guidance for delivery numbers in 2019. Personally, I think they'll come in somewhere in the range between the low and high end of guidance. I don't necessarily think they'll beat 400,000 deliveries in 2019, but I think they can come pretty close, which in my opinion will still be positive news for the company. All I can really say is that if you're a Tesla bear, don't underestimate the power of the new Gigafactory in China, because that alone could set this company up to be a much more profitable company moving forward. Thank you so much for watching, guys. I hope you enjoyed this video. Don't forget to invest positively, and I'll see you in the next one.
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