저자: EconomicNinja—출연자소속미상;해설자본인및JeremyGrantham인용 · 외국인
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Jeremy Grantham의 2022년 1월 노트를 인용해 미국 주식·주택·원자재에 '슈퍼 버블'이 형성돼 붕괴가 임박했다고 주장하는 영상이다. 글로벌 버블 진단: Grantham은 1929년, 2000년, 2008년에 이어 현재를 100년 내 네 번째 슈퍼 버블로 보며, 주식·주택·원자재에 동시 버블이 나타난다고 주장한다. 시장 협소화 신호: 나스닥100은 연초 대비 9% 하락했는데도 FANG 등 소수 대형주가 지수를 떠받치고 있어 1929·2000년과 유사한 협소화 신호라고 한다. 투기 행태: 밈주식, 전기차 관련주, 암호화폐, NFT에서 튤립 버블 수준의 비이성적 투자행태가 나타난다고 진단한다. 손실 추정: 밸류에이션이 정상 역사적 수준의 3분의 2만 회귀해도 미국에서만 약 35조 달러의 부가 사라지며, S&P500은 45% 하락할 수 있다는 Grantham의 수치를 소개한다. 금리·연준 리스크: 금리 상승 환경에서 연준이 통제력을 잃을 수 있으며, 연준은 버블 위험을 과소평가해왔다고 비판한다. 투자 조언: Grantham은 미국 주식을 피하고 신흥국과 일본 등 저평가 선진국 주식에 집중하라고 권한다. 현금 일부, 금·은 등 인플레이션 방어 자산도 언급된다. 암호화폐: 해설자는 NFT와 블록체인 기능은 남겠지만 대다수 암호화폐는 10년 뒤 사라질 것이라고 보며, 본인 자산의 상당 부분이 암호화폐라고 밝힌다. 다만 본 영상은 투자 조언이 아니라고 고지한다.
다듬은 글
hey everybody economic ninja here i hope you're doing well i have a story for you and i think it's very very important to go over this because it has to do with uh wall street insiders that are warning about a market crash a collapse and we're going to talk about that right now because they're talking about some pretty interesting things so it's out of a yahoo finance jeremy grantham predicts u.s super bubble will pop wiping out 35 trillion in stocks and housing here are the best 11 the 11 best quotes from his new note okay so we're going to go over that and talk about it because i think it's very very important you guys know that the economic ninja if you haven't been following me for a long time i have been talking about this for about a year the channel is actually only about a year and four months old so i think it's really important to go over this so he talks about an epic market bubble that could soon implode and here we go it says uh jeremy grantham said thursday that the u.s is experiencing a super bubble in stocks housing and commodity commodities and predicted that it would all soon come crashing down same thing as i am predicting however guys i'm not a financial advisor i'm not a financial professional just to do with a brohawk and a dream he says uh he's the founder of the gmo investment firm and he said in a new note that 35 trillion dollars worth of wealth could easily be wiped out in the us alone and in a long drawn-out process slammed the fed and gave some interesting advice let's go through this all right it says here the u.s stocks housing and commodity super bubble today in the u.s we are in the fourth super bubble of the last hundred years the others were in stocks in 1929 we've talked about this before the run up through the uh uh the roaring 20s and 2000 which i was a part of i was investing prior to that and actually moved into bonds right before that dot-com burst he says that in housing in 2008 he said the equity bubble has now been joined by a bubble in housing and an incipient bubble in commodities absolutely correct now the commodities he's referring to are things like oil lumber things like that um we have yet to see the commodity bubble get blown up for silver and gold but there's a whole other story behind that we'll get into that in other videos so by the way if you haven't subscribed and you'd like to find out more about that please consider subscribing he says it may already be imploding which i completely believe i believe it started september of sept uh 2019 when their inner bank lending rate completely spiked at over 12 percent showing that banks were so scared of the economy in the state of affairs that they wouldn't even lend to other banks he says the finer the final feature of the great super bubbles has been a sustained narrowing of the market and unique underperformance of speculative stocks many of which fall as the blue chip market rises this occurred in 1929 and in 2000 and it's occurring now the tech heavy nasdaq 100 has fallen nine percent year-to-date and he is absolutely correct the stock market is really being held up by the fang stocks a just a handful of stocks that people i believe truly are romanticizing that they are just that they have fallen in love with them they think they could do no harm and i want to remind you very similar to the 2008 debacle where we had just a few companies really holding up the entire market i believe it's going to come crashing down so he says the most important and hardest to define quality of late stage bubbles is in the touchy-feely characteristics of crazy investor behavior and we have definitely seen that there's no lack of that but in the last two and a half years there can surely be no doubt that we have seen crazy investor behavior in spades especially in meme stocks and in ev related stocks in cryptocurrencies and the nfts ladies and gentlemen the economic ninja has been talking about this for literally a year that we are uh in something akin to the tulip mania the tulip bubble or the emu bubble and if you haven't read about any of those please google them check them out it's pretty amazing whereas when i was growing up learning to be a young investor when i was in my early 20s these are episodes in history where people would laugh at that they like who would ever buy a tulip bubble for a tulip bulb for that much but i'm telling you right now this is happening right now no matter how advanced we get uh technologically or we think that we're just that much better than the the the uh civilization before us let's say the facts are facts markets go up and markets go down based on one fundamental emotion you could say it's demand you could say all of that stuff but it is still based on emotion human emotion it is the human emotion that drives items up and items down end of story you can talk about the fed printing tons of money the difference between inflation deflation again human perception all right so the trash the crash could wipe out 35 trillion of value said when pessimism returns to markets and that is going to happen i believe quite soon i believe personally not financial advice is going to happen this year we face the largest potential markdown of perceived wealth in u.s history and i completely agree and right here he says uh the s p could drop 45 i actually have a higher number on that now again not financial advice just to do the brohawk in a dream bring any of the news if valuations across these asset classes return even two-thirds of the way back to normal historical norms total wealth losses will be in the order of 35 trillion in the u.s alone now that is a massive number ladies and gentlemen and i believe that we're going to see this also because of the rising interest rate environment set aside what you think of the federal reserve and how much in control they are i can guarantee you one thing as of right now they are getting ready to lose control and it's not their choice trust me because again the human perception of what is going on the markets is there's a brewing fear it's in a lot of traders guts right now they don't how to normalize it or give it uh words or understand it but it's brewing right now and i believe that that fear is going to lead to much higher interest rates and again the federal reserve is not going to be able to hold it back now let's talk about the last part being savage on the federal reserve all the economic and financial dangers that are now building up from the multiple major bubbles do not appear to be considered especially dangerous by the fed or most of its equivalents around the world i completely and utterly agree with that we saw the exact same thing with ben bernanke trying to calm the world going or the nation saying in 2006 don't worry we have stemmed the tides we've fixed the housing crisis and by the way housing can't fall all throughout the country at the same time and i think he said almost impossible and guess what he was wrong but today people don't remember those quotes and they pay him way too much money to come speak at their lectures with the clear dangers he says of an equity bubble revealed in 2000 to 2002 the even greater dangers of a housing bubble in 2006 to 2010 and extra risk of doing two asset bubbles together in japan in the late 80s and in the us in 2007 what has the fed learned absolutely nothing any he is 100 correct and then some last advice and then i'm gonna leave you guys with the rest of this article okay which there isn't that much he says to avoid u.s equities and this is his advice a professional avoid u.s equities and emphasize the value of stocks of emerging markets in several cheaper developed countries most notably japan speaking personally he says i also like some cash for flexibility i agree some resources for inflation protection that as well as a little gold and silver and that's what i've been talking about lately i think it's very important not only to have physical gold and silver but also understand the importance of some resources for inflation protection uh that's why i've been talking about resource stocks um gold and silver mining companies things copper mining companies things like that um and then he says cryptocurrency is leaving me increasingly feeling like the boy watching the naked emperor passing in possession uh procession so many significant people and institutions are admiring his incredible coat which is so technically complicated for superior that normal people simply can't comprehend it and must take it on trust i would not now with that i want to caveat and end this right here and say i think that it's very important to understand that nfts are something that i don't think a lot of people understand um they have their places but not when in my personal opinion when we're trading uh pictures of crazy monkeys can you make money off them absolutely you can have i made money in the past off of uh these type of uh cryptocurrency things yes i have do i believe that they're going to be around forever no i do not i believe the functionality of nfts will be there i believe the functionality of blockchain will be there but trust me when i say that i think that most cryptocurrencies a vast majority a large percentage of the whole market will not be around 10 years from now so be very careful with that however there's a lot of money to be made i have a majority of my wealth in cryptocurrencies and again this is not financial advice guys i hope you got something from this if you did please consider subscribing i'm going to link the article below the economic ninja is out
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