저자: EconomicNinja—마이클배리인용발언 · 외국인
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마이클 배리는 주식시장이 곧 대폭락할 것이라고 경고했으며, 시점은 향후 수년 내로 제시됨. 배리는 2005~2006년 부동산 붕괴를 예측해 자산을 팔았던 이력을 근거로 신뢰를 강조함. 현재 시장은 과도하게 고평가되어 있고, 부동산과 주식에 대한 과신이 만연하다고 진단함. 진행자는 은행 위기 때 거대 기관도 한순간에 무너질 수 있다며 베어스턴스, 리먼브라더스, 엔론을 예로 듦. 중국 에버그란데 사태가 베어스턴스 같은 전조 이벤트이며, 그 전염효과가 리먼 때보다 클 수 있다고 언급함. 다만 2008년 이후 풀린 유동성 때문에 리먼급 사건은 아닐 것이라는 단서도 있음. 원자재·물가 측면에서는 브라질 서리로 커피 공급이 줄어 가격이 상승했고, 코스트코도 원유·견과류·커피 등 물가 상승을 언급했다고 함. 물가 상승으로 소비자의 가처분소득이 줄어들어 주택 등 판매가 시차를 두고 둔화될 것이라고 전망함. 나스닥의 최근 조정은 부채 위기로 인한 일시적 공포이며 곧 다시 오를 것으로 봄(진행자 개인 의견, 투자 조언 아님). 진행자는 자신을 투자 자문이 아닌 개인으로 명시함.
다듬은 글
morning everybody again i'm a ninja here got my cup of coffee you know it's times like these with these markets in such turmoil you got to be like you have to have your your mind and your thesis sort of in a good spot like in a good foundation you know like solid as a rock and it sounds funny but it's all about who you listen to in life in 2006 2005 you know i was predicting the uh real estate crash and i was out selling all of our uh real estate back then i didn't have a platform like this but um you know i was speaking with colleagues and and business uh partners and uh family and friends and obviously they weren't paying too much attention but that's okay we uh we got out in just the nick of time which ironically was 2005 2006.
by 2007 it was very hard to sell homes at the price you wanted and it was michael bury that uh really helped me out because i was following them in real time when nobody was now everybody on wall street knows who michael bury is uh because they made a movie about him and lots of people went and ate popcorn and drink soda and watched how him and his team made billions on shorting the market because and they were out warning but nobody wanted to listen well guess what nobody wants to listen today everybody is super invested in the stock market and in homes and you know things are just going to keep going up i hear it all the time they're like no uh real estate's just going to keep inflating who the heck's going to buy it i mean seriously at a certain point you realize that the average person cannot buy the real estate well that's why most people sophisticated investors keep going yeah we know that institutions will you know it sounds really interesting institutions have a lot of buying power until the day they don't ask bear stearns ask lehman brothers ask uh oh man now my mind's blanking from that company enron well there's lots of institutions that have buying power that all of a sudden they do they do they do until they don't um now let's talk about michael bury michael bury just deleted his twitter account again there's a lot of pressure uh because he's out been he's been pounding the pavement and uh pounding his fists and warning people and telling them the truth michael bury should get a nobel peace prize to be honest with you and uh you know we should put that get that trending bury uh for nobel peace prize and because he's out warning people he's telling the truth and he's gonna crush it again and he's warning there's gonna be an absolute market meltdown the mother of all collapses in the coming months i believe that too now when i say coming months can it be like a year year and a half away yes it can okay so my time frame is sometime in the next couple of years we're gonna see the mother of all collapses and i believe we're going through the bear stearns moment ironically or truthfully the bear stearns moment today being uh what's going on in china with evergrand the contagion effect in that is actually larger than lehman brothers okay but when i say bear stearns it's because it's coming before the big event okay and it's gonna cause this massive amount of contagion which is gonna take out some big institutions and so a lot of people like to put dollar amounts but they don't understand that yes even though and they say no this is it this is it it's starting even though evergrand on a dollar basis is larger than lehman brothers you have to realize the economy has so much more money that's been pumped in the system and created out of thin air since 2008 that's why it's not going to be the lehman brothers moment okay so michael bury uh quoted something very interesting this goes back to a warning i gave you guys and i want to say beginning of july about coffee prices he cited costco's warning about uh inflation just up ticking the cost of oil nuts and coffee right this is coming out of uh i want to say the cfo of costco but i could be wrong i'm going from memory and he's citing these higher prices and back in july i warned everyone saying hey if you like coffee and you know that ninja likes coffee salad and i said hey go get some coffee because this massive event happened with weather and the frost down in brazil and i got all kinds of great comments i got a couple really not so well thought out comments let's say this um and people don't you know those people don't get the supply chain they're like well the coffee hasn't gone up you know futures haven't gone up i'm like i don't even think wall street's seeing this i don't even think the futures market priced in how big of a deal that frau that deep freeze was down in brazil um and but here we go you know we're seeing these costs start to rise exponentially and now you know you have costco which tries their best to keep prices uh stable they're going man we're having a hard time and they're citing all kinds of things supply chain issues the cost of a shipping container all kinds of and you know what it is guys it's all truth but really it's grasping at straws people don't call a spade a spade the the original reason why coffee is increasing is because there's less of it now because of a mass die off due to um extreme uh temperature uh fluctuations okay that's the first thing then there's all this other stuff stacked onto it so michael's out here warning people and people are not paying attention and that's okay you guys are my subscribers because you're the i'm not joking you're very in tune with what's going on and you're preparing for it and you're not going to be a part of this craziness as you see these prices go up you understand how people have less and less money now to have disposable income where they could go hey i want to go on a vacation hey i want to go um you know go take my kids down to disneyland or go you know anywhere in the world right or hey i've got less money now for that fancier car i'll just buy a car to get by right now and you understand that when that happens there's a time lag it takes time and then all of a sudden sales start to drop off like especially what we're gonna see with houses you know and uh and as it starts to come over you as you're watching it and it's an everyday thing you have to be watching things every day it sounds funny people all the time they go oh yeah the housing market's still hot in my area i'm like oh yeah when did that house sell oh yeah they gave me a couple examples i'm like when was that and they're like oh it's just now i'm like just now like like last week in in september no it was like it was a couple weeks ago i'm like when and they go i go ask them some more you know deeper questions like oh it's actually in july like oh okay big difference today and uh and people don't realize that they don't they they time is not it's all compressed in their minds oh it just happened just happened well actually that was like three months ago that was like nine you know nine twelve weeks ago people like oh yeah i guess it was yeah yeah but to them there's like oh it's might as well been yesterday they don't realize it they you know it's like you read the history book and you think oh it just all happened in this much paper so that means oh it's just this amount of amount of time you don't realize you know there's a lot more in that in history than what's just in that little book that's what people don't realize that book might be this thick but history well there's so much history i couldn't even if you really recorded it you got what i'm saying anyway it sounds like it's getting loud over here someone's playing around with the tractor probably trying to flip cars so i better get going but you have my might get my drift michael brewery's out warning the people he's saying there's going to be a crash stocks are completely overvalued right now and it's funny this little this little thing that's going on with nasdaq this is just a little thing going on because the debt crisis it's gonna go away it's just you know shake some people out it's a little bit of fear it's gonna start ticking back up i have a feeling this isn't financial advice guys i'm just a dude with a brohawk in a dream and an awesome coffee mug ooh hashtag the rock too if you want to put it in there alright guys that being said the economic ninja is out
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