저자: TheEconomicNinja · 외국인
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결론: 버크셔해서웨이의 사상 최대 현금 보유와 주식 순매도를 근거로 큰 폭의 시장 폭락이 임박했다고 주장한다. [버크셔 현금·매도 동향] - 3분기 현금 보유액 1,576억 달러로 사상 최고, 애플 보유 현금(1,620억 달러)을 곧 추월할 것으로 언급. - 최근 4분기 동안 주식 순매도 380억 달러(사상 최대), 3분기 단독 53억 달러 추가 매도. - 분석가 Jim Shanahan(Edward Jones)은 버크셔가 현금을 투입해야 할 압박을 받을 것이라고 봄. [투자 해석] - 2007~2008년 운송주 대량 매수 사례를 들며 현재 운송업 부진(트럭 업체 폐업, 화물 지수 급락, 유가 상승)이 당시와 유사하다고 주장. - 버크셔가 2024년 이후 기업 인수 기회를 노리고 있다고 해석. [실적·포트폴리오] - 3분기 영업이익 107.6억 달러로 전년 대비 증가(고금리에 따른 현금 이자 수익, 보험 부문 이익 2.42억 달러 흑자). - 애플 주가 3분기 11.7% 하락(이후 3% 반등), 투자 평가손 등을 반영해 순손실 약 128억 달러. - 뱅크오브아메리카 지분 매도 시점이 은행 위기 직전이었다는 점을 언급하며 선견지명 시사. - 옥시덴털 페트롤리엄 지분 취득 및 116억 달러 규모 인수 건(Alleghany 등) 언급. [경고 메시지 해석] - 버크셔가 연례 주주총회(5월)에서 자회사 실적 둔화 가능성을 경고한 점을 근거로 들며, 미국 경제 호황이 끝나간다는 발언을 인용. - 금리 인상으로 건설·주택 관련 사업 수요 감소, 2024년에도 매출·이익 감소 예상이라는 버크셔 보고서 내용을 인용. [리스크·면책] - 진행자는 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시. 대규모 폭락 시나리오는 근거가 제한적이며 구체적 시점·목표치는 제시되지 않음. - 공통 결론: 버크셔의 현금 축적과 매도가 시장 고점과 대규모 조정의 신호라는 주장.
다듬은 글
economic ninja here I hope you're doing well you know who's doing really well right now who is sleeping really well that is Warren Buffett Warren Buffett has been aggressively selling stocks that is correct birkshire hathway is now sitting on the largest cash pile ever why because they know something that most people do not and that is markets are going to turn and they are going to turn fast as a matter of fact they're already starting to turn and they want to be able to be the big Great Value investor that scops up companies for pennies on the dollar as everything comes crashing down in 2024 this story is out of Zero Hedge we're going to Dive Right In it says here birkshire cash pile hits all-time high 157 billion as Buffett sells a record 38 billion in stocks in the past year so many people in the first quarters uh first and second quarter of this last year this year stated ninja you're wrong look at what Warren Buffett's doing he's buying that was actually not the case he is selling and now the quarterly reports that come out are proving this to be the absolute truth says over the years Warren Buffett has been optimistic and fluid with his ideals and political opinions he described himself as a Democrat yet without battling it batting an eyelid will demand government bailouts for his portfolio of companies but he has been steadfast about one thing he refuses to spend money on stock purchases or corporate Acquisitions unless there is significant value to be exploited in which case one can probably conclude that the market is still woefully overvalued because earlier today Buffett's conglomerate birkshire hathway reported solid quarter three earnings but more importantly revealed a cash pile that has grown by 10 billion in the third quarter to a record 157.6 billion and has set to overtake Apple's own cash horde of 162 billion as soon as this quarter cash deployment is definitely showing or slowing sorry said Jim Shanahan an analyst with Edward Jones ultimately birkshire going to start feeling some pressure to put cash to work I honestly do not believe that I believe that birkshire hathway understands where this Market is heading and with the Federal Reserves uh stance on higher for longer rates and putting that maximum pressure maximum pain on the economy they know that there are about to be a lot of deals in corporate finance because companies are going to start hemorrhaging and start falling says here perhaps but not yet in fact in the third quarter birkshire was a net seller of stock for the fourth quarter liquidating another 5.3 billion in shares and bringing the total sales over the past 12 months to a record 38.3 billion think about it as there are people diving into markets buying up stocks you have one of the most successful investors of all time selling as a matter of fact hitting records uh of their selling to build up that cash War to take advantage of this downturn says despite ramping up berkshire's acquisition machine in recent years the company has still struggled to find many of the big ticket deals that galvanized Buffett's Renown or what gal that's galvanized Buffett's uh Renown leaving him with more cash than he and his investing deputies could quickly deploy again I want to remind you that Buffett went to cash and back in what 2005 2006 and started to buy up Transportation stocks in 2007 and 2008 because that was the great deal right there right now we're seeing the exact same thing we're seeing trucking companies closing at an alarming Pace we are seeing the freight index plummet at the same time fuel is going up this is the exact same scenario but on a much bigger scale that we saw in 2007 and 2008 and that is exactly what Burkshire hathway is preparing for right now after hanging back during the pandemic he's since snapped up shares of accidental petroleum Buffett has said he has no plans to acquire the company outright and struck 11.6 billion deal to buy I don't even know how to pronounce the word eleny Buffett has also leaned heavily on share repurchases amid the death of a appealing alternative saying the measures benefit shareholders separately the conglomerate also reported operating earnings of 10.76 billion which was a jump on the prior year as it benefited from the impact of elevated interest rates on the cash pile and gains its insur and gains at its Insurance businesses so again they're making profit because the gains on their their cash hord are going up because interest rates are going up as well however including investment and derivators losses Burkshire posted a loss for the quarter of almost 12.8 billion well above last year's $2.8 billion loss which largely came from a decline in its Big Apple stake I I think that between the Apple stake and the Bank of America stake I think uh they're going to be very bummed out this next year but that's not Financial advice now I will say this Buffett was also pretty famous for selling off a majority of his bank shares in burshire hathway really close to prior to the banking collapse so very interesting it was almost like he knew something shares of the iPhone maker fell 11.7% during the quarter but have rebounded 3% so far so that's talking about his share in apple strength in berkshire's insurance unit plus the inclusion of Pilot Flying J earnings which birkshire did not include in results last year helped Drive profitability birkshire said its Insurance businesses posted a profit of 2.42 billion versus a loss in the prior year period when the insurance industry was being pummeled by catastrophes it's interesting now uh insurance companies their share prices have tended to stabilize or go up a little bit and that is because they are just simply pulling out of so many different sectors so it's a great example of where bad news is actually good news and then it goes on to talk about uh Geico and and the things hair uh but it says here Burkshire posted stronger operating earnings despite Buffett cautioning at its annual meeting in homaha in May that earnings at the majority of its operating units could fall this year as an incredible as an incredible period for the US economy draws to to the end now think about that that is what he said at his his May meeting again I'm going to read that to you he was cautioning about all of its annual uh numbers all of its companies that it owns uh started to issue poor or scary forward guidance and his direct quote was it was an incredible period for the US economy for the US economy draws to the end people are not realizing the warnings that are coming out of people's mouths like Warren Buffett saying the US economy is it draws to the end it's coming to the end we are seeing the end of this American hemony absolutely blows my mind says still the fed's rapid rate hikes help the firm reap huge returns from its CA on cash its stockpiles mostly in short-dated us treasuries that said those higher rates also create created headaches for some of berkshire's industrial businesses the conglomerates building products business saw Revenue slip 11% due to the runup in mortgage rates they go on to say and this is from birkshire the effects of significant increases in home mortgage interest rates in the US over the past year has slowed demand for our home building businesses and our other building products businesses Burkshire said this in a report detailing results they said we continue to anticipate certain of our businesses will experience weakening demand and declines in revenues and earnings into 2024 so they are telling you right there that they are expecting things to continue to slip says as usual birkshire hathway asked investors to look past the quarterly fluctuations in berkshire's equity portfolio the amount of investment gains or losses in any given quarter in usually meaning is usually meaningless and delivers figures for net earnings or losses per share that can be extremely misleading investors who have little or no knowledge of accounting rules the company said in a statement well this is what I want you to realize they're telling you right there through their their messages in their annual statements their quarterly statements do not pay attention to the minutia but they're also saying prepare for bad news prepare for the companies the majority of our companies if not all of them to have really bad annual results and especially going into 2024 that they expect things to get worse all the same time at the same time they are hoarding cash and selling stocks at record levels the selling stocks at record levels and their cash hord is now at record levels what does that tell you that tells you that Warren Buffett Charlie Munger and Burkshire hathway knows big crashes on the The Horizon and they are preparing for it the only question is are you hope you got something out of this the economic ninja is out
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