저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시는 거품이며, 연준의 유동성 공급은 인플레이션과 자산 거품을 키워 큰 폭락을 예고한다. 거품과 폭락 전망: 미국 시장은 단순 고평가가 아니라 거품 상태이며, 거품이 꺼지면 하락이 매우 심할 것이라고 주장한다. 달러 기준으로는 하락이 가려져 보이고, 호주 달러로 보면 더 크게, 금 기준으로 보면 가치가 80~90% 떨어질 수 있다고 본다. 연준과 유동성: 연준은 유동성을 공급한다는 명목이지만 실질은 인플레이션 유발이며, 정부 부채를 monetize하고 자산을 사들여 자산 가격을 떠받친다. 미국 정부 지출이 세수보다 많아 피라미드 붕괴를 막으려는 상황이고, 정책 지연으로 결국 더 큰 위기가 온다. 글로벌 중앙은행: 호주 중앙은행(RBA)이 금리를 0.1%로 낮추고 양적완화를 발표했으며, 일본·유로존·영국도 같은 길을 가고 있다. 통화 강세를 꺼리는 것이 원인이라고 본다. 금리 전망: 소비자물가가 본격 상승하면 물가 항의가 커지고 금리는 결국 오르며, 이전보다 훨씬 높이 오를 가능성이 크다. 부채가 많은 국가일수록 금리를 올리기 어려워 인플레이션이 경제를 황폐화시킨다. 자본 배분과 성장: 유동성이 실물 경제가 아닌 주식시장과 채권으로 흘러 자본이 월가로 쏠리고, 이것이 실질 성장을 막는다. 실질 성장을 위해서는 저축과 높은 금리가 필요하다고 본다. 투자 대안: 과도하게 오른 주식을 살 필요는 없으며, 전 세계에 가치가 남아 있는 저평가 종목을 찾을 수 있다. 금과 은은 발행된 법정화폐 규모에 비해 여전히 매우 싸고, 금 가격이 채굴 원가보다 훨씬 빨리 오르면서 광산 기업의 현금흐름과 배당이 크게 개선될 것이라고 본다.
다듬은 글
fact the u.s government is spending more money that the fed prints than it collects in taxes and so we're trying to keep this whole pyramid from collapsing this is such a critical time uh for investors around the world trying to understand what's going on we've got the us markets you know pretty much back to where they were my question to you first peter is are the markets overvalued well absolutely i mean the u.s market is a bubble i mean so it's not just overvalued uh you know the valuations are extreme so the bear market that spotless is going to follow this bubble when it pops is going to be particularly vicious the the problem is it may be harder to detect the magnitude of the decline if you're measuring it in us dollars but if you're measuring it let's say in australian dollars that's where you'll see a much bigger decline of course the biggest decline at all will be if you're pricing u.s stocks in terms of real money which would be gold and i would expect to see major u.s stock markets lose 80 to 90 of their value from here if you price them in gold right so obviously you know understanding where we are is important understanding where we come from helps to explain where we may be going of course the fed has been pumping liquidity in like you wouldn't believe there's any tomorrow right and they've been doing it for a long long time this isn't just uh the virus related is it there's a there's a structural question as to whether the fed is actually just blowing the bubble higher yeah well creating uh providing liquidity is a nice way of saying it what they're doing is they're creating inflation they're just inflating they're monetizing government debt and they're buying assets with the money that they create out of thin air and the goal is to is to prop up those asset prices but also to enable massive u.s government spending in fact the u.s government is spending more money that the fed prints then it collects in taxes and so we're trying to keep this whole pyramid from collapsing uh but eventually uh you know it's it's gonna happen and the fact that they delay the day of reckoning with this policy just means that when that day arrives we have a lot more to reckon with and so it's a much bigger crisis than would have been the case you know had we faced the music years ago and of course it's not just the fed but central banks around the world are following here in our here in australia the rba took their rates to 0.1 uh last week and announced a quantitative easing program we've got the same going on of course in japan and in the eurozone and in the uk so everybody's just going down the same path right but i think they're following the fed's lead because everybody is afraid of having normal interest rates because nobody wants their currency to appreciate which you know seems counterintuitive because a strong currency is a good thing it means that your wages have more value your savings have more value you can buy more stuff for less money you have a rising standard of living but you know modern-day central bankers for some reason have no common sense and they think that weakness is strength uh but eventually when consumer prices really start to rise uh the public around the world is going to be you know protesting the the rise in the cost of living and so interest rates are going to eventually rise uh and they're probably going to rise much higher than they ever would have gone had the central banks not gotten so far behind the curve uh but the countries that have the most amount of debts are going to be the ones that are least likely or able to raise rates and so inflation is going to just ravage those economies and if i think about that liquidity that's been created a lot of it's flowed back in to the stock markets and into bond purchases and those sorts of things so it's not necessarily hitting the real economy directly well it's not only not hitting the economy it's draining the economy of capital the reason we don't have real economic growth is because capital is being diverted from main street to wall street so if we want real economic growth we need more savings so that we can have more legitimate capital investment but we're not going to get more savings until we have higher interest rates but the federal reserve is actually discouraging people from saving as our central banks around the world and they're encouraging reckless debt which just fuels asset bubbles and consumption all of which undermines real economic growth and uh interestingly here the reserve bank governor several times said people have to move into the market take market risk if they want any sort of returns i know and but but first of all you're distorting the markets by causing all this money uh to artificially bid up prices but in the end the losses are going to be horrific to say that well people have no choice but to take risk i think they do have a choice i i don't think they have to buy overpriced stocks now fortunately if you look around the world there are stocks that are not overpriced i mean i find that there is still a lot of value in the markets if you spend the time to look for it so you can buy companies at reasonable or actually cheap prices now and get good dividend yields uh but also you know i think gold and silver are still very cheap relative to the amount of fiat currency that's been created and i think there's a lot of opportunities in the mining sector i think a lot of these stocks are going to be raising dividends significantly over the years i think their cash flows are going to improve dramatically as the price of gold rises much faster than the cost of producing it you
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