저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 바이든 당선 시 추가 부양이 달러를 훼손해 달러 위기가 올 것이며, 금 가격은 더 오를 것이라는 주장. 시장 전망: 바이든 당선 직후 일시 반등 가능성은 있으나 곧 하락(매도)할 것이며, 과열된 주가는 과거 부양의 영향으로 이미 고평가되어 있어 큰 폭의 하락이 예상된다. 장기적으로 물가 상승이 주가 상승분을 초과할 수 있다고 봄. 달러 전망: 부양책은 달러 공급을 늘리고 가짜 회복을 만들어 달러를 약화시키며, 하락이 시작되면 자유낙하하는 달러 위기로 번질 것. 미국 국채가 타격받으면 모든 달러 표시 채권이 무너지고 국가부채 위기로 이어질 수 있다고 경고. 기축통화 전망: 현재 달러를 대체할 통화는 보이지 않으며, 대체재는 금이다. 달러는 금 태환을 중단한 이후 신뢰에 의존해왔지만, 미국은 세계 최대 채무국이 되어 기축통화 지위를 유지할 근거가 약해졌다. 중앙은행의 금 보유 비중이 늘어날 것이며 금 가격은 1,900달러에서 1만~2만 달러까지 오를 수 있다고 주장. 특히 금 보유가 적은 아시아 중앙은행들이 금을 매입해야 한다고 조언. 금 단기 전망: 2016년 트럼프 당선 때 금이 하락했던 것은 감세·재정 개선 기대가 잘못된 것이었기에, 이번엔 바이든의 큰 정부·재정적자·통화 확대로 인해 금이 더 강해질 것이라고 봄. 리스크: 장기적 금 상승 시나리오는 중앙은행 매입 및 달러 신뢰 붕괴를 전제로 함. 예측 시점은 2020년 대선 전후.
다듬은 글
and so i think once the dollar starts to fall it's going to turn into a free fall that is the crisis that's coming it's not going to be a financial crisis it's going to be something so much worse than that it's going to be a u.s dollar crisis which means it's also going to be a sovereign debt crisis so you're not expecting markets to move drastically in either direction following let's say abiding victory jerome powell has basically indicated he's run out of ammo what happens next well look if anything i think the market will sell off i think it might be the opposite of what happened when trump won remember when trump won initially the markets tanked in the first few hours that the s p was trading after hours but then by the morning we had completely reversed and we had a big rally and that's because everybody was convinced a trump victory if it happened would be terrible for the markets now i never bought into that it didn't make any sense to me because trump was promising lower taxes and less regulation none of that is bad for the market so i think investors figured that out early on that the trump win was actually good now you have the situation where people think abide in victory is good for the market because it's going to deliver more stimulus i think that's wrong so maybe if biden wins we get an initial rise in the market potentially but then an immediate decline or maybe the market will just sell off right away because in my opinion there is nothing bullish about abide in victory i don't think the money printing and the deficit spending is going to uh be enough to compensate for the weaker earnings in a you know or lower earnings in a weaker economy and i think the market is already so overvalued right from past stimulus that i don't think the future stimulus even if it's bigger is going to have anywhere near that impact so i think we could get a big drop in the market eventually we may get another rally because there's so much inflation that the price of everything really starts to go up and so that would include stock prices as well but i expect the cost of living to far out place uh the gains in the stock market what's going to happen to the dollar then peter because if let's say the democrats win you get more stimulus even more than now shouldn't that be driving up the dollar now the stimulus is bad for the dollar by definition the stimulus increases the supply of dollars so if there's more dollars they have less value plus the stimulus also rewards people for not working it keeps people unemployed and unproductive that's really what it's designed to do is the the stimulus actually prevents a real recovery from happening we get a phony recovery instead of a real recovery uh and and that's bad for the dollar because what happens is instead of producing more goods and services we just print more money and now the americans take that new money and they go abroad to spend it and so we're dramatically increasing the global supply of dollars and so i think once the dollar starts to fall it's going to turn into a free fall that is the crisis that's coming it's not going to be a financial crisis it's going to be something so much worse than that it's going to be a u.s dollar crisis which means it's also going to be a sovereign debt crisis u.s treasury bonds are going to be right in the crosshairs and of course if treasury bonds are collapsing so are all bonds right all u.s dollar denominate bonds and we're a country that runs on debt you know everybody is borrowing and if nobody wants to lend us money anymore if the fed is not the lender of last resort but the lender of only resort then this whole house of cards economy is going to come collapsing down all around joe biden you and i have talked several times and you've brought up this concept at the collapse of the dollar coming up in the economy but the reality is peter right now the dollar is still the de facto currency of the world do you see another currency in the future replacing its status no i don't see any currency replacing the dollar i see gold replacing the dollar i mean the dollar replaced gold uh so now gold's gonna replace the dollar and the only reason that the dollar replaced gold was because we claimed it was as good as gold because not only did we back the dollar buy gold but we were willing to give people who had dollars gold on demand you could freely exchange your paper dollars for a fixed quantity of gold so that doesn't exist anymore nor does the u.s enjoy the same financial position that it had when the dollar was accepted as the reserve currency back then america had the world's biggest trade surplus now we have the world's biggest trade deficit back then america was the world's largest creditor nation now america is not only the world's largest debtor nation but we have more debt than all the other debtor nations of the world combined so america is a shadow of what it used to be there is no way that america today would ever have been awarded reserve currency status the only reason we still have it is because the world has been reluctant to change because they've been worried about the short-term implications of that but in the meantime because the world has allowed us to abuse this privilege we have run up debts far greater than what we ever could have run up had the world impose some discipline sooner uh but now i mean they're not going to wait forever i think this covent situation and what we're doing now is the real wake-up call that the dollars days as the reserve currency are over but the world is not going to anoint another fiat currency to replace the dethroned dollar right they're not going to say hey let's make the euro the reserve currency or or the yen or you know the chinese r b the world's just going to go back to gold central banks already hold gold right it's there so all they have to do is increase their ownership of gold to replace the lost value of the dollar and a lot of the transition is going to take place in the market when the price of gold moves up right now it's around nineteen hundred when it goes up to ten thousand fifteen thousand twenty thousand that means by default the reserves that central banks have now their percentage of gold reserves is going to increase because the goal that they hold is going to be a lot more valuable relative to the other currencies that they have in reserve the problem is going to be a lot of these asian central banks that barely have any gold they really need to start buying gold now as much as they can in anticipation of this transition back to a real monetary system based on real money gold to replace the phony system that we have now that has given us these bubble economies and all these imbalances and that really has been responsible for all the major financial problems that we've experienced sure that's more long-term but in the immediate term how do you think prices of gold are going to react to a bud in victory as you remember 2016 we had a month of dollar strength and gold weakness following trump's win in 2016 all throughout november gold sold off what do you think is going to happen this time yeah well you know gold's done extremely well under president trump in fact he's it gold's done better under trump than it did under obama uh but i think gold could shine even brighter under biden i think that initial reaction when trump was elected gold sold off because people thought hey trump's going to reduce our trade deficit it's going to strengthen the dollar we're going to have a bit better better economy he's going to pay down the national debt none of that happened all of the good news that was weighing down gold turned out to have been a false rumor but now you know nobody is going to believe that any of that's going to happen under biden biden is clear he wants bigger government he wants larger deficits you know he wants to increase taxes on the productive people in the economy and and and increase subsidies on the unproductive uh so the economy is going to be far weaker under biden everybody can see that the deficits are going to be much bigger the fed is going to be printing a lot more money that is very bullish for gold you
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