저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션과 디플레이션 모두 위험을 경고하며 금·은을 보험처럼 보유할 것을 권하지만, 극단적 붕괴 상황 전까지는 전 재산을 금·은에 두지는 않는다. 은(Silver) 관련 주장: 본인이 은을 상당량 보유하고 있다고 밝히며, 은 가격이 1000달러까지 오르길 바란다고 말한다. 다만 은 같은 대형 상품을 조작해 가격을 밀어 올리기는 어렵다고 본다. 과거 헌트 형제 사례를 들어 가능은 하다고 언급한다. 가격이 너무 높아지면 팔 것이라고 말하지만 자녀에게 물려줄 생각도 있다고 한다. 실물 재고(창고 감사)에 대한 의문을 제기하며, 실물 부족이 있을 수 있다고 본다. 금·은 일반 주장: 정치인과 학자들이 금·은을 무가치하다고 하지만, 서민들은 위기 시 금·은이 생존 수단이라는 역사적 기억이 있다고 말한다. 미국 달러 붕괴가 아마 언젠가(본인 딸 세대 즈음) 일어날 것이라고 전망한다. 인플레이션 주장: 이미 인플레이션이 진행 중이며 정부 발표는 거짓이라고 주장한다. 정부는 물가연동 채무 부담을 줄이려고 인플레이션을 축소 발표할 유인이 있다고 본다. 과도한 화폐 발행은 역사적으로 항상 인플레이션을 낳았다고 설명한다. 디플레이션 주장: 인플레이션 이후 결국 큰 디플레이션 붕괴가 올 것이라고 본다. 다만 중앙은행과 정치인은 디플레이션을 싫어해 계속 돈을 찍고 빌리고 쓸 것이라고 예상한다. 긴축을 택한 정치인은 정치적으로 살아남기 어렵다고 말한다. 자산 시장 전망: 큰 약세장에서는 금·은을 포함한 대부분 자산이 하락하지만, 긴 시간이 지나 돈 풀기가 재개되면 금·은이 다시 크게 오른다고 본다. 조건 및 리스크: 금·은에 대한 지식이 없다면 많이 보유하지 말 것을 권한다. 모두가 보험으로 일부(일부 자산)는 보유해야 한다고 조언한다. 전쟁·대공황 등 전면적 붕괴 시에는 금·은이 거의 유일한 자산이 될 수 있다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 금·은과 인플레이션 관련 장기 견해 중심이며 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
i have some silver that i'm holding in my hand uh as as we speak yes uh i do have some in the in the closet and under the bed you know i'm an old peasant when things go bad i want to own some silver and some gold in the closet now the politicians and the academics say nine nine silver and gold or worthless don't bother well all of us old peasants know that when things collapse we better have some gold and silver under the bed so i have some and i will buy more sometime in the future i have no idea where i know about the movement um i hope they drive silver to a thousand uh i certainly own plenty of silver uh i i think it's probably unlikely it's very difficult to do something like that with a with a huge commodity like like silver but i mean it can be done the hunt brothers certainly drove the price of silver up an enormous amount that it can be done and it has been done if they do it more power to them if it gets too high i'll have to sell i don't want to sell myself i want it for my chip my children but i'm aware of it squeezing the price of silver which is a huge international commodity will be difficult but more power to it the hunt brothers did it again i have absolutely no idea i've never gone down to the vaults and done the audit i mean i hope somebody does including i hope the etfs and the exchanges do uh hooray if there's if it's not actually there that means the price will go higher and higher as i say i own silver and gold i hope i have an opportunity to buy more before this is over but there could well be physical shortages i just don't know i haven't done the audit please somebody go down and do the audit and we'll know because if they do the audit and they find out it's not there it'll be too late because the prices will be going straight through the roof well if and when there's a currency collapse and or a government collapse throughout history all of us peasants know gold and silver we better have some gold and silver because that's that's the only thing that's going to save us maybe some wheat will save us maybe loaves of bread will save us but gold and silver is more likely to be the same thing yes when things collapse people know i mean there's some kind of innate historical memory that people realize how to save themselves if and when the us dollar collapses which is probably going to happen maybe not in my lifetime but probably in my daughter's lifetime people will know they got to have some real assets in order to survive i mean elijah this is this is not the first rodeo i've seen this has happened throughout history and i presume it will continue to happen throughout history we're already having inflation i mean if anybody who shops you know there's inflation the government says there's no inflation but the government lies about it all governments and they always and they have reason to lie i mean practical reasons as you know many government obligations are tied to the inflation rate so if they say there's no inflation they don't have to pay as much so they all have reasons to lie and they do anybody who shops knows their inflation look at entertainment anything uh education food you know restaurants you know that there's inflation out there and it's going to get worse throughout history when we've had huge amounts of money printing i mean it's it's very simple it you it has always led to inflation maybe it won't this time for some reason but it always has and i suspect it will we will probably eventually have a deflationary bust there's no question um it's always worked that way you have huge inflation it mentally gets popped for whatever reason and then there's a huge deflationary bus i suspect that that will happen again um maybe somehow the federal washington can somehow get prices down and drive prices down into deflation but the but the problem with that scenario is central banks and politicians don't like deflation because they lose their jobs so they do everything they can to print borrow spend look at what's happening now you think that the federal reserve is going to wake up one day and said okay we made a mistake we're not going to print huge amounts of money now we're not going to spend all this money we're not going to borrow all this money i cannot imagine a single politician in washington saying that maybe one would and maybe she would get elected because it's sound policy but within six months she would be assassinated or thrown out of office because people would say no this is too much pain i don't want to suffer like this then we go back to inflation inflation's the easy way and inflation has always been the way unless it gets out of control deflation well normally uh when markets collapse and if there's deflation nearly everything goes down a lot and normally when you have huge bear markets everything goes down including gold and silver go back in previous bear markets in the last century or two whenever there's been a big bear market gold and silver have gone down at least for a while eventually when the money pruning starts again they always go up and go through the roof and are great ways to protect yourself so but if there's gigantic deflation most all assets will go down at least for a while then again if you don't know what gold and silver are if you're like elijah's of the earlier question room you probably shouldn't own much at all because you don't even know what it is and i would not encourage anyone to invest in something that i don't know what they're doing in my view though everyone should own some gold and silver as an insurance policy if nothing else even if you know little about it most of us have health insurance we don't know much about it but we know we have it we hope we never need it well i consider gold and silver the same way if you know a lot about gold and silver and if you know what you're doing there may come a time when you want all of your money in gold and silver i do not have all of my money in gold and silver but i could conceive of a time like that down the road if the whole thing collapses i mean if there's war and depression and everything else then the only thing to own might be gold and silver you
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