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We still own some of the video, and we own, you know, different things. Um, you know , you know, we own some of them , do you have any shares? Do you have Nvidia stock, have you sold any? Well, we sold a lot of our Nvidia. Previously, yes. But, you know, listen to the stocks, we thought they were too high at the time, and we fell.
Unfortunately, we didn't buy them when they dropped again . Right. But, um, you know, so that's okay. This really applies to stocks like Nvidia, the question is , do you have enough power to deliver growth? Do you have any next- gen models that can handle their chip? So, it looks great in '24, it looks great in '25.
I have no idea what will happen in 26 and 27. I have no idea, okay? I mean, if I was good, I wouldn't believe, I don't believe my analyst, I don't believe any analyst, I do n't trust myself. Do you understand what I'm talking about? I just don't know how...I know too much about it. And then, you know, you have these multipliers, and how it could work out, and the variation of where that profit could be at the end of the years is too big .
So it's not my favorite vehicle compared to other things that I have more confidence in, how can I, um, how can we do, um, in my workshop, you know, a profit analysis. But you thought it was important to mention that you'll be playing in the energy component, trying to deliver all these new technologies, to better understand that.
But trying to understand it better... Yeah, that's the thing. Would it be , would it be, I'll say, I'll say. Would that be it , or would you avoid green? Would you accept the green one? Would you avoid fossil fuels? Would they accept fossil fuels, natural gas ? So I...I never consider myself that smart.
So I just like to use common sense. I made you very smart. Okay, you can try, but I'm not going to accept it. But I have , you know, a hell of a lot of common sense . And here's what I know. I know I've talked to some governors, you know, across the country on both sides. I'm friends with everyone, as you know.
Yes. Um, I mean, um, they won't let their nuclear power plant fail. This will not happen. This is a joke. Some of these predictions about these things are crazy. It has to be that if you're going to meet these energy needs that they need for AI, you're going to have to use natural gas. You will have to use natural gas.
It just comes from drilling. Yeah, I mean we have a lot of it and you know, so you're going to have to use, you know, you're going to have to use it. You can't take...If you take a portion of... that is, if you take an existing nuclear power plant and think you're going to get these things, it's never going to get past these individual, you know, utilities.
She won't pass, she won't be able to. This will harm the consumer too much. You can't hurt the consumer that much . This is madness. So I hear these guys talking about how if we, you know, if we did this, if I was good, if I was 7'2", I would be in the NBA one day. I'm not 7'2". Okay, if you want to say something impossible, I wouldn't be in the NBA.
I would still...Well, I don't have the skills. This is a true story, but you can be 8 feet 8 inches tall. So, it's interesting, when I say that, I'm trying to figure out what actually makes sense and what doesn't. And I, you know, we're trying to figure that out right now . So, this... But I'm fascinated by it.
It's fascinating when you look at these technology stocks. It's fascinating when you watch videos where some of these things can be done for different reasons. Different things happen over the years , different things that need to happen for growth projections to come true. I'm not saying it won't happen.
I'm just not smart enough to know if it will happen. I know the probability of it happening or not, but I...I can't. No, I mean it is what it is. Okay, I admit these things, and people make assumptions that they will happen 100%. Well, you know, the United States is a great country, and we're innovating at full speed, and, you know, that's how things go , and usually you have flies.
and We really fly. This is one in particular, and if I catch him, I'm telling you I won't even kill him. I'm not going to kill him right away. I'm not going to kill him right away. Dare I ask you how the election will affect all of this? You know, when it comes to elections, I'm a big fan of splitting the government.
And now, as you more than likely know, yes, it looks like the Senate is, um, Republican and the House is Democrat, and I love life. And I don't care. I speak exclusively from this show. Okay, I don't care what you would do if it was a clean win, but just to make it a clean win on both sides , the Democrats cleaned up.
So let me, I just...I just...and I do n't want to talk too much about politics, but I'll just say that generally speaking, you have the populist on one side and the progressive populist on the other. And if I listen to what a lucky day I hear, I hear more pranks and stuff . So do I want all Democrats?
No. Do I want everyone to be Republican? No. I don't want more, if again, from a purely economic point of view, there are other considerations, namely: is this not the right topic for discussion? But from a market and economic perspective, what is good for the economy? I want to divide the government, and I don't want everyone to be a Democrat, and I don't want everyone to be a Republican.
And you think that at this point... If I think about the market, you think that at this point it's not affecting the markets in any way because you think that it's expected to be...Well, not just expected, I mean, the expectations are there. People are betting on it, the betting markets are such that it's split.
And as long as it's separated, and that could be a problem because the market thinks it's going to be separated now, so if it gets surprised, that could be a problem for the markets, but as long as it's separated, the market will be fine. They won't care because they won't let them do what they're talking about.
So, David, are you afraid to play? AI directly, you, you, you use these ways to do it downstream. I mean, are you, are you , is it too hard, is it too hard to understand what Nvidia is, but no, listen, you have What, besides Nvidia and Energy, can do Well, we have, you know, we have, you know, common stocks like meta have been a big beneficiary of AI, llama , all of that, I mean, and they're just in how they model how they want to monetize their business and other company like Amazon, for you, is there anything else?
This is the question: how much is in stock? And how many next generation , what next generation, how much more? Because they got pretty good returns . I think people value these numbers and that's why they can have short-term surprises. All of these stocks could have short-term surprises, so the question is what will happen if this continues?
Let's say surprises, surprises up or surprises down? Well, surprises on the upside if they can change the models and some of the underlying earnings are good enough to provide support to those stocks that you know are relatively You know, we talked about this and I don't like Nvidia, the price is OK so don't get me wrong.
I just love it. OK? Um, yes, but first you have to believe in it more. Do n't you believe that in the long run, for AI to really work and be a meaningful contributor to the economy, Nvidia's margins will eventually have to go down. That is, what do they have so far? That's about 70% margin to 80% margin for some of these chips.
This is amazing, and God bless them for it. But at some point, to make all of this economically viable, I think that margin has to come down. Not because of the stock, but because of how much they earn, right? But listen, there is another potential concern. From a macro technical perspective, it's all about the stakes and then maybe Nvidia.
Nvidia has a triangle on its chart, the upper boundary of which it should test today with the Micron news. So, we have real proof for Nvidia. Triangles. tend to give way to increased volatility. They just don't give you any idea of what direction it's going to go in. So, if we see Nvidia break out of the triangle, it will be positive for the market.
And of course, conversely, if we see a breakout, it will be negative for the market. You know, it's hard to avoid mentioning Nvidia on a day like this. And I say that because after Micron's performance, Morgan Stanley's comments on Micron, they're a little cautious about Micron's valuation, but they're essentially saying that's for video reading.
Because if Micron's comments about the overall market size of high- bandwidth memory products are plausible, then you would actually look at Nvidia's cost of goods sold and what that means for their demand. So basically all they're saying is, yeah, good for Micron, but it means the bullish scenario for Nvidia is probably backed up by this.
And, uh , you see, the stock went up again by another couple of percent, uh, two two and three- quarters of a percent. 130 ee for Nvidia. this is the August maximum. So it's kind of trying to fight its way back, uh, and kind of reverse this little downtrend that's been going on since June, obviously also having a huge impact on the Nasdaq 100.
Okay, I hope you're doing well today. At the time of this video recording, the S&P 500 is up slightly after posting gains in premarket trading this morning. There are two reasons why the market allowed the rise this morning. A great earnings report from Micron yesterday, which helped boost trading in artificial intelligence and semiconductors .
And we also got more stimulus news from China. This is in addition to the stimulus news we received earlier this week. So, the Micron and China stimulus news sent markets higher this morning before giving back most of those gains in today's trading session. Nvidia traded higher yesterday after the close of trading following Micron's earnings release, and then even higher this morning following news of stimulus from China.
At the time of this video, Nvidia is turning a little red and is very close to testing this upper trendline as support on the daily timeframe. The ideal scenario would be to test this trend line as support before an upward move. We are moving away from overbought levels on the 4- hour timeframe , so it is important to know about this in the near future.
Micron's earnings last night were very good news, not only for Micron, but also for Nvidia. Remember, Micron's high- bandwidth memory product is used in Nvidia's AI chips, and the fact that Micron raised its forecast is very good news for Nvidia. Micron raised its revenue forecast for the next quarter to $8.7 billion, nearly $500 million above consensus estimates.
Now, please listen to me carefully. I am optimistic about Nvidia's long-term future, and I think the company's brightest days are yet to come. But I'm cautious about both Nvidia and the rest of the market until we get to late October/early November. There are several reasons for this. Elections are approaching in November, which will likely lead to increased market volatility in the run-up to the election.
October is historically a bad month for the stock market, and as for Nvidia... In particular, this stock typically cycles between earnings reports. Before Nvidia's last two earnings reports, shares hit relatively low levels three to five weeks before the company's upcoming reports. Patterns tend to repeat themselves, so it's important to be aware of this cycle.
If the cycle repeats, we could see Nvidia's price dynamics softening sometime between now and late October or early November. Of course, this is if the cycle repeats itself, and we will have to wait and see how things turn out. Now, after we get through the election in early November, I think it's possible that we'll see Nvidia stock rise in anticipation of the company's next earnings report, given the excellent results that Micron reported last night.
I'm just cautious in the short term, at least until the end of October, given all the risk factors I mentioned. Remember that there are some important events on the Nvidia calendar. Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak in Washington, D.C., tomorrow morning at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. Jensen is also planning to perform in Mumbai in October.
on the 24th, and Jensen is scheduled to perform again in Tokyo on November 13th. These are important events worth knowing about. I'm curious to see how Nvidia stock reacts to Jensen's speech tomorrow. So, those are my short-term thoughts on Nvidia at the moment. Looking long term , I am optimistic about Nvidia's future and I wouldn't be surprised if this company doubles in size over the next 2 years given the company'.
Blackwell is scheduled to begin shipping in the fourth quarter, and the Blackwell platform presents Nvidia with a huge revenue opportunity. And while Blackwell is ramping up volume, I expect Nvidia to still generate significant revenue from its current Hopper architecture for two reasons. Demand for Nvidia chips is still very high, and many companies will take whatever they can get from Nvidia.
Additionally, there are some countries that are currently not allowed to purchase Nvidia Hopper chips due to export controls. But once Blackwell starts shipping in volume, I expect export controls on older generation chips to be gradually lifted, and so we should see continued demand even for older generation Nvidia chips.
products. And this continued demand for older generation products is complemented by insanely strong demand for Blackwell from American companies. So overall , I think Nvidia has at least one to two years of solid growth ahead of it, if nothing happens with Taiwan. And if ital expenditures. At least, that's how I see the situation.
With all that said, I wish you all a great day, and I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on Nvidia in the comments below. Please like this video so more people can see it . And while you're we'll see you in the next video.
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