저자: TomLee · 외국인
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출연자는 기술주 리더십이 약해져도 소형주(러셀2000)가 다음 상승을 주도할 수 있다고 보며, 금리 인하 기대가 소형주 펀더멘털을 개선한다고 주장한다. 엔비디아는 시장가치 3조달러 부근에서 밸류에이션 부담이 크다고 평가하나, 한 영상 후반부 해설자는 AI 자본지출 증가와 블랙웰 출시를 근거로 향후 2년간 두 배 상승 가능성을 언급한다. 10월 초~11월 초 조정 가능성을 열어둔 분할 접근을 제시한다.
다듬은 글
can we make new highs if if tech doesn't resume its leadership role anywhere close to the degree that it had um as long as Tech is a market perform if tech actually declines that's going to be hard for the rest of the S&P 500 to compensate but what we've seen so far including days like Nvidia and Tesla recently is that that Tech is actually holding its own but other stocks are starting to show uh Catalyst and Signs of Life yeah what about the broadening trade I mean look you look at the Russell your big call uh of course weak to dates down more than 1% really hasn't done much at all I I kept hearing hey you got to wait till the FED Cuts then you go into the Russell I don't know what do you think well Russell had a big week last week uh it's some profit taking now but I I think that there's you know this is what bottoms look like um I don't think bottoms are straight up I know in 2021 energy was bottoming and it was also very choppy but eventually made not only new Highs but then basically had a blistering gain in 2020 in the year following so I think that's a multi-year start for the Russell it feels choppy but we're still near alltime highs and there's a there's a big fundamental case to own small caps and you're still not necessarily sticking with the 50% up for small caps but you still think they could have a huge move because they tend to move quickly that's right I think what investors have to remember is small caps um have been out of favor a long time and they are known for having explosive rallies that are not abnormal so last year was a 27% rally over really 20 trading days I think we could see something very big between now and your end I think I was hoping it would be after the FED started uh the easing cycle but maybe it really has to happen after election day but are the fundamentals getting stronger for small caps absolutely because interest rates are falling merger activity likely picks up and the median PE of a Russell 2000 stock is 10 times 10.7 times I mean that's not demanding especially if we're trying to be sensitive to valuation all right we'll leave it there Nvidia adding to yesterday's gains it's back above $3 trillion in market cap as we speak there's the 2% move today meta's also higher as we just told you on the heels of its connect conference Apple Amazon alphabet all down today joining me now to help navigate the teex story with earnings just weeks away now the dean evaluations aswat motor and nyu's Stern School of Business good to see you again welcome back hi Scott glad to be back when you when you look at the multiples the mag 7 what do you see today I see the the fact that these are the companies everybody wants to flock to but in the last few months we've had reminders with each of these companies about their weakest lengths with Nvidia it was around the earnings announcement which is you saw how high expectations have been said and what looked like a good earnings report turned out to be a disappointment with apple we've lived from upgrade to upgrade now 16 upgrades and I know why we surprised one upgrade no measures up to expectation the next one doesn't with Google we're still waiting for the next big business they still make so much of their money from the search box so much as these companies have been winners they also have weak spots and I think in the last few months you see those weak spots sometimes highlighted which explains why on any given day two of them are up and two of them are down it's the nature of the beach but are you are you suggesting that let's talk specifically Nvidia Apple alphabet are you saying they're overvalued currently I think that I mean rather than overvalued on value let's talk about investing odds if investing is a game of odds with Nidia the odds are against you because of how high a price you're paying with apple the odds might be even odds with alphabet and meta I think the odds are still with you because to the extent that these companies can pull off something outside their core businesses you're going to get the bonus from that so rather than think undervalued overvalued I think in terms of investing odds and in terms of investing odds I think the worst odds are with Nidia the best odds might be with the companies that have you know at that moment at least are the companies that are not in the favored group that's really interesting that you suggest the worst odds are are with Nvidia just given what we've heard even as an investor as a Trader I would reverse the whole thing because all about momentum it's got nothing to do with fundamentals it's got nothing to do with you know what the business looks like Nvidia is the perfect momentum play in either direction if you're a Trader I can see why Nvidia is going to be where you're going but as an investor I think the worst thoughts are with Nvidia well I mean but I'm I'm I want to address it as as an investment to make because I you know 34 times it's cheaper than it than it has been for for certain secondly we've heard from Jensen Wong recently you know as I don't know within even the last couple of weeks about the great demand that the company continues to see they have by all accounts What You Know many would suggest to be not just a first mover Advantage but in fact a mo because of their installed base much the like we talk about Apple uh having so how does that all factor in though let me concede all of those it's an amazing company going after a big Market that it's going to dominate because it has immense modes but that would mean that you would need a trillion dollars in revenues and 70% margins to be delivered 10 years from now reverse engineering from the 3 trillion dollar market cap so even if you took every word that Jensen Wong takes as the truth and you build it in I still have a tough time getting to 3 trillion I mean this is a company that if you look at the current numbers has to have immense growth and maintain 70% operating margins to deliver what you paid already up front as a price that's what I mean about investing odds being you know against you you priced this company to be the most amazing company of all time what's the upside left if it's just amazing rather than the most amazing company that's a disappointment so I I think this is something you're going to see the back and forth on in terms of expectations but the expectations at some point have to get reset so the company can actually deler on those numbers did did you sell any of your your own shares I sold half to the extent that I did it you know a year ago might be due for another half to be sold at some point in time but the last time I valued was right after the earnings report so least overvalued it looked since the AI boom started so in a sense if I were going to sell it 3 months ago 4 months ago when it hit 136 would have been the time to do it so I'm watching the price and if it you know if it triggers enough of an overvaluation then perhaps it's time to get rid of another half of whatever half I have left so that's that's something I'm open to doing okay interesting I mean the semis I think the socks was up 1.3% roughly you had a pretty good day for NVIDIA believe you're getting uh Micron results fairly after the CL after the close um how do you read that Mike in terms of one day we care and the next day we kind of don't I mean again for the part of the market that for much of the year was the driving force sure sure um I mostly read it as and this sounds really deterministic but the market has kind of decided that we're comfortable with these levels you don't have aggressive selling at S&P 57 and change just yet um and so on a given day if the macro cooperates you know if we have to to rely on the handful of semi- stocks that look like they're relatively oversold you got this headline out of you know not even a headline just the story that Jensen Wong maybe he going to slow his P his sale plan yeah I mean or stop it for now I mean that shouldn't really matter it wasn't really uh a huge swing factor in terms of the the value of the stock on offer uh for NVIDIA but nonetheless it was a pretty good excuse for that to work um I think it's much more about you know on a given day it's either Banks and small caps working or it's uh the Magnificent 7 Banks and small caps working really relies on soft landing and fed cutting rates the rest of it just reminds relies on the mood about you know the long-term secular growth story interesting today is the markets again being held up by Nvidia and the related Scrappy under don't know what day of the week it is Mike but I do know the Market's been held up by Nvidia for about two years here's what I'm going to tell you since the end of the second quarter since June 30th nvidia's flat the Eco weighted S&P is up 8% so the rest of the market has come around to doing what everybody was calling for it to do which has broaden out since then now I I you do wonder if Nvidia now is getting a little bit of uh of respit here it's kind of churned around these same levels it's around the mid 120s uh this seems like you see that chart right there it could finally break this pattern of having uh you know kind of lower Peaks we'll see uh that to me is what the market is clinging to today to try and uh keep from a broader pullback because most stocks are down today speaking of AI UBS is highlighting some major headwinds hitting active managers according to the firm large cap managers have 4.4% exposure to Nvidia despite the chipmaker accounting for 6.6% of the S&P 500 in other words that's the biggest underweight position ever in Nvidia causing managers to underperform by about 130 basis points this year down by about 210 of a percent while Nvidia finished the day up nearly 2.2% Nvidia was also trading slightly higher in after hours trading following the release of micron earnings remember that micron's high bandwidth memory Solutions are used in Nvidia AI chips and so if Micron is doing well that bodess well for NVIDIA Micron beat consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines and delivered 93% year over-year Revenue growth for the quarter micron's president attributes this growth to robust AI demand driving a strong ramp from micron's Data Center and High band with memory products this is good news for NVIDIA now e can see that today we broke Above This resistance trend line that is good news at the same time we are now in overbought territory on the 4-Hour time frame so that is something to be aware of I'm curious to see how this plays out over the next few trading days this week we got news Jin and Hong has completed his scheduled sale of shares and now we have Micron earnings both of these events bode well for NVIDIA looking ahead I want to remind you of some events on nvidia's calendar Jensen Hong is scheduled to speak this Friday in DC at 10 a.m.
eastern then Jensen is scheduled to speak in India on October 24th and later Jensen is scheduled to speak in Japan on November 13th now looking ahead as I've been saying a lot recently I am cautious about adding to Nvidia at least until early October SL late November for multiple reasons of of course there is an election which I expect to lead to Market volatility October is historically the month in which the stock market finds a bottom before trading higher into year end and I'm also thinking about the cycle Nvidia typically Moves In in between earnings with all of these factors in mind it is possible that we could see Nvidia trade lower into late October early November on that note I want to clarify something really quick this oversimplified graphic that I've been sharing recently is of course oversimplified and I'm just trying to communicate the underlying concept that attention surrounding Nvidia and subsequently Nvidia share price typically moves and Cycles in between earning reports this pattern has already taken place twice this year with Nvidia reaching a relative low about 3 to 5 now hear me well I'm not telling you that you shouldn't trade Nvidia around earnings that's not at all what I'm saying I'm just saying that if this cycle repeats itself as it already is twice this year then we could potentially get a better entry point on Nvidia sometime in late October early November of course ot always have to and of course I do not know what the future holds and I could be completely wrong but considering the seasonality of October for the stock market considering the upcoming election and considering the cycle Nvidia typically Moves In in between earnings reports I am personally cautious about adding to Nvidia until we get to late October SL early November that is my personal opinion and it is completely fine if you have a different opinion than I do now looking ahead s hyperscalers like Amazon meta Microsoft Google and others all increase their capex spending on AI by billions of dollars the hyperscalers must invest in AI infrastructure now or else they will be left behind and we have yet to see any signs of slowing cap expending from the hyperscalers in fact it appears to be the opposite as they increase capex by billions of dollars Blackwell is on the horizon and is expected to begin shipping in Q4 and Blackwell is an entire platform it's not just a chip and this presents a massive Revenue opportunity for NVIDIA I would not be surprised if Nvidia doubles over the next two years given the company's the main two risks I see to this investment is if one of the hyperscalers were to reduce capex or if something were to happen regarding geopolitics surrounding Taiwan but as long as neither of those two things happen couple of years at least that's how I it
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