저자: AdamTurnquist/MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
주간 뉴스 간략 정리. 소프트웨어 매도와 AI 우려로 기술주 급락 후 Dow 5만 돌파, 반등 시도. Turnquist는 S&P500이 100일선 반등 후 7000 돌파 가능성을 보며 기술주 회복이 관건이라 봄, 금은 장기 상승추세 유지로 조정 후 40~90일 내 재돌파 가능성, 비트코인은 200일선 붕괴로 하락 위험(5만달러 지지) 경계. El-Erian은 섹터 로테이션 추격에 신중하라며 구조적·전술적 기회 선별을 강조, 고용 지표 예상 편차가 커 불확실하다고 봄. 연준은 워시 체제에서 데이터 의존에서 선제적 태도로 바뀔 수 있다고 평가.
다듬은 글
Welcome to Morning Brief on Yahoo Finance. I'm Julie Hyman and we are coming off of a fairly extraordinary week in markets that saw steep steep selling in software that spread to the broader tech universe. We saw a sell-off in shares of Amazon even when the rest of the market was bouncing back on Friday on that company's $200 billion spending plans.
And so today we come in after that sharp rebound on Friday that sent the Dow Jones Industrials above above 50,000, sent it to a new record. We now see things coming back down a little bit this morning. We got a lot going on this week, of course. We got a rescheduled jobs report coming out on Wednesday and then consumer inflation numbers coming out on Friday.
So ahead of all of that and after that wild week that we have, futures are indicating a little bit of a lower open. So Dow futures off by more than 70 points here this morning. S&P futures indicating a decline of about a fifth of 1%. Nasdaq 100 futures down by nearly a third of 1%. So that's the setup at the moment here.
I want to get more on what investors are thinking in terms of the technical setup as well. Adam Turnquist is with us, LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist. Adam, I'm so glad you're here because after the week that we had and those wild swings here, I I think it's really important to kind of take a step back, take a deep breath, and figure out what the charts are telling us.
So I know for the S&P 500, we sort of bounced off of some technical levels. Talk us through that and what that tells us about what happens now. Hey, good morning and a little bit of a hangover here after the 50,000 point milestone party on Friday for the Dow, but it was an important step in last week's, we'll call it recovery rally on Friday.
When you look at the technicals in in the setup going into weekend, we really had a nice bounce off the 100-day moving average on the S&P 500. We got back above 6900. That marks some prior highs, really the upper end of this range that the S&P has been in for the last few months. So, we're on the upper end of that range.
The big question now for this week, can we get through the 7000-point milestone? That's been a problem for the S&P 500. We briefly flirted with that level and then backed off. I think if tech can make a little bit of a comeback, I would expect to see the S&P clear that level and potentially hold it and finally get out of those consolidation range.
And I'm curious, Adam, how you're thinking about those big economical reports I mentioned cuz we Yes, we have earnings this week, but we're sort of past the bulk of those tech earnings, right? And we've got a jobs report that's coming on Wednesday. It normally comes on a Friday. CPI's on Friday, right?
It normally comes earlier in the week. So, does that sort of like mix things up in terms of what we could see in terms of market reactions? After last week's employment data, I think this Wednesday's jobs report is really going to be interesting. Probably some more volatility around it just given the uptick in weekly claims last week, the JOLTS data, and the rest not great.
So, labor market still on trial and I think that's going to create a little bit more volatility or the prospect for volatility. We continue to think the labor market's slowing down, but not stopping. And and our base case is no recession. Think it does allow the Fed to continue cutting rates, maybe one or two more times this year is what we have penciled in for our forecast.
That's supportive, of course, of US equity markets. We've ran the the analysis. When the Fed is cutting, when the S&P is near record highs, you tend to get some added tailwinds for the next 12 months. And that's what we expect for the broader market, albeit maybe a little bit choppier path than what we've seen over the last couple years.
And you mentioned that um the 7000 level is contingent on those tech stocks coming back, right? Because even though we've had this big rotation trade, the tech still stocks still have a huge weighting. So, as you look at this week, do you think that 7,000 is achievable, likely? I think it's definitely achievable.
The S&P has really been towing an anchor here with the the tech space. It has not made a new high since October, and the big underpinning behind that has been weakness in software. There's been this AI disruption trade that's really kind of taken out the AI bubble talk, and software names have absolutely been destroyed over the last several weeks with extremely oversold conditions, some that we've never seen in terms of the momentum indicators that we watch.
So, it's not surprising we're getting a bounce here when you look at the broader software industry. It's right at a major support level. It's extremely oversold. That's what we witnessed last Friday. The big question though is that sustainable, and is that enough to to hold really push the tech sector tech sector out of its consolidation range?
I think maybe we'll get some information on that this week, but certainly maybe a high-risk, high-reward setup here for the broader software space. Adam, I'm I'm curious about something. I've been talking with a lot of guests about single stock volatility and how it has gone up by so much. I mean, even this morning you look at some of the single stock movers on the back of earnings and you see extra Well, at one time it would have been extraordinary moves.
Now, it's kind of the norm to see these like 20% swings in a single stock. What does that do to technical analysis? Does it change things at all for you, especially when you're looking at the index level? Do you have to tweak things when you see those kinds of moves? I think it's some job security for technicians because when there's volatility, that's when your phone is ringing the most, and and that's when investors want answers.
Where's support? Where's resistance? Or what are the levels I need to be watching? Even if they don't subscribe to the the field of technical analysis. So, I would say my experience doing it any volatility tends to put more weight on technicals because price is really deviating from fundamentals and that's where you have more emotion in the market and that's where technicals I think work really well.
So, I think it certainly it helps in those scenarios. All right. So, I got another one for you then where we've seen extraordinary volatility and that's in gold and silver, right? I'm sure you're getting calls on that, too. So, what are the charts telling you about where they're headed next? Look, when you step back on the gold and silver trades, especially if we just focus on on gold, the long-term trend is very much up into the right.
We had these parabolic moves develop last fall. Gold got extremely overbought. I could go on a long list of different technical indicators that were basically at historic levels in terms of that degree of momentum. And when you have that high rate of change, you should expect volatility. So, I would argue even though maybe it was extreme, this is this really comes with the territory and these big drawdowns.
The good news, gold did hold up on some of the retracement levels that we were watching. So, I do think it's going to take time. I'm I'm always leery of of buying the the first bounce when these parabolic moves end. When you look at the last four cycles of gold consolidating, it's really been anywhere from 40 to 90 days until it breaks out.
You it's been overbought, consolidates, rallies, overbought, and then those periods of that consolidation is has taken several, you know, several weeks, we'll call it, in terms of kind of price regaining its footing and moving higher. But, the fundamentals for for gold certainly are still there. The prospect for a weaker dollar.
Look at the geopolitical environment, we think that will remain elevated. There's still inflation risk. And there's a I mean, the list kind of goes on and on when you look at central bank and central bank buying and the debasement trade. So, we we still are positive on the precious metals space and and the same could really be said about silver.
A little bit more of an industrial metal than a precious metal and we think that plays well into this AI spending and and infrastructure spending. Of course, the debasement trade should also be helping something else that it's not and that's Bitcoin. At least in theory, right? If you're a Bitcoin bull, you would think it would be benefiting and it hasn't been.
So, what are the what story do the charts tell on that one? It's a broken story unfortunately for Bitcoin. It violated its longer-term uptrend. It took out the 200-day and that's really where it started to unravel after that trend was broke. It's bounced a little bit last week or in a big way actually, but I guess normal for Bitcoin.
So, maybe a a relief rally here. Tough to call it sustainable. Think you're going to need to see some further technical progress and it really a confirmation in momentum to change before getting too excited about making a call for a bottom. There's there's downside risk I think maybe to to 50,000 when you look at some of the support levels and maybe that's where you start to find more firmer footing for the Bitcoin trade.
Adam, great to see you. Thanks so much. All right, thanks for having me. Coming up on Morning Brief, we'll bring you today's top trending tickers and we'll hear from Mohamed El-Erian about why you maybe shouldn't buy into the rotation trade. That's next. Now time for some of today's trending tickers.
We are watching Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Kyndryl. First up, Eli Lilly, the pharmaceutical giant buying biotech company Orna Therapeutics for $1.4 billion in cash. That Lilly-Orna deal will include upfront payments as well as subsequent payouts based on meeting certain milestones. Orna's developing treatments for certain autoimmune diseases including rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis.
The move boosts Lilly's footprint outside of the obesity market where of course it currently sells its weight loss shot Zepbound. Next up, Novo Nordisk shares are gaining after Hims & Hers pulled a copycat version of the new Wegovy weight loss pill. That decision by Hims follows legal moves by Novo and government threats to crack down on knockoffs.
Novo Nordisk said it's suing Hims and Hers for making copycats of its obesity medicines. Novo says Hims is breaching the US patent on its semaglutide. The suit marks a more aggressive approach for Novo under its new CEO. Until now, the drug maker's legal strategy focused on the way that companies like Hims market their products.
And a reminder, just last year the two companies had a partnership that was scrapped due to concerns on deceptive marketing. Also, we're coming off of big Super Bowl ad for Novo Nordisk, by the way. And finally, Kyndryl shares of the information technology services infrastructure provider are plunging.
Remember I was just talking with Adam Turnquist a few moments ago about these what were once unusual huge swings in individual stocks versus after earnings. This is one of the ones I was thinking of, a 53% decline in those Kyndryl shares after the company's third-quarter results missed expectations.
It also lowered its full-year forecast for both adjusted EBITDA margins and adjusted pre-tax profit. At the same time, Kyndryl's CFO is departing the company amid an SEC review of its accounting practices. The decline probably has something to do with that as well. Kyndryl said that while it doesn't expect the review to result in a restatement or other impact to those financial statements, it will delay filing its quarterly report with the SEC.
It expects to report material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting for fiscal 2025 and the first three quarters of fiscal 2026. Well, tech stocks are looking to rebound after last week's route fueled by AI concerns. My next guest says the rotation is not the answer to tech uncertainty.
Joining me now Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and a professor at the Wharton School. Mohamed, it's great to see you. Um those tech stocks may be attempting a comeback, but markets overall are not coming back again today after Friday's rebound. I was looking at the year-to-date numbers.
Tech stocks the worst performers in the S&P, energy stocks the best performers and we have seen that rotation here, but as you wrote in a piece this weekend for Yahoo Finance, maybe people shouldn't be jumping on that rotation bandwagon. Why not? So good morning, Julie. Thank you for having me. Look, we we coming from a very strong couple of years for tech and rightly so.
It was the AI theme. There's a sense that this was a little bit overdone. It was too generalized. So people are being recommended to rotate. Go to anti-AI stocks. That's what you'll hear over and over again. That's why the Dow is having such a good year. That's why non-US is having such a good year.
I'm just cautious because in order for the rotation trade to work, it needs to be supported by a fundamental theme and not just by technical theme. And it's hard to find one. I'd much rather investors exploit structural opportunities. I'd much rather investors exploit tactical opportunities. For example, the AI sell-off has been pretty indiscriminate, but there will be a handful of AI winners.
So look more into the structural and opportunistic space and be careful of this automatic reaction to simply rotate into something that's not last year. I I think that investors are really struggling with where those AI winners and losers are going to be. That's part of maybe part of the reason why we're seeing this indiscriminate selling.
And listen, I know that you're not a tech investor per se, Mohamed, but just sort of in terms of criteria, in terms of process, how do people try and figure that out? So there's certain names I'm highly confident about. Why? Because they have, exactly as you say, certain characteristics. Think of Google.
Google both has a vertical stack and horizontal stack. It can self-finance a lot of its investment. It cannot be held hostage by the market. It can monetize its investment easier. So, there are certain names that you can make a very strong fundamental argument for. There are other names that are much more speculative.
Open AI is a much more speculative AI play than Google is. So, you can look at these characteristics and ask the question, how resilient is my investment? Is there balance sheet strength? Is there human resilience? And how quickly can this company monetize what are enormous investment? Last week alone, two companies announced 400 billion of CapEx this year.
These are very large numbers, Julie. They are very large numbers and, you know, a lot of folks come on the show and they say, um, maybe you don't need to make a bet on who's going to win and lose necessarily, but you can invest in what everybody's been calling the picks and shovels, right? The infrastructure.
And some of that is in those places people have been rotating to, right? Industrials, for example, that service, um, or the grid, for example, you know, various plays on that. Do you think that's a way to look as well at this whole situation? It is a way to look, um, but if you do so, just make sure you you know what the adoption policy is, what the diffusion policy is.
There's two parts of AI. The one we mostly focus on, it is the frontier models, those working on AI. But monetization of these things you talked about is about something else completely. It's about those [clears throat] working with AI. How will adoption happen? Will it be even? Will it be fast? How inclusive will it be?
So, if you are in this space, make sure that you know what diffusion phenomenon you are betting on because we may not get the sort of diffusion that a lot of people are assuming when they go and go to all these opportunities that you're talking about. And Mohamed, when you talk about also looking for things that are sort of broken in the market, you gave one example there, things maybe that have been oversold indiscriminately.
How do you sort of define broken though more broadly and how people try to look for those opportunities in the market? So when you have massive volatility and you've been talking about massive single name volatility, we've also had quite a bit of index volatility. But when you have volatility and that's one of the three themes for this year, what you're going to see is overreactions both on on the way up and the way down.
So good stocks will sell indiscriminately and bad stocks will go up. So you've got to be much more selective. And then there's the opportunity of completing markets. For example, if you are part of the surge into private credit in advanced economies, ask yourself what how am I completing a market? You're not completing a market.
There's so much money going in there. If you want private credit, go into emerging economies where there's much less capital. There's a market failure. The local banks are not able to lend to good companies. You can get a ton of collateral and you can get paid a thousand basis points over the public market equivalent.
So ask yourself the question, what market imperfection am I addressing or what overreaction am I addressing? And I think that you'll see this over there. It explains why the macro funds have had such a good January. Is that that is how they are wired. And I think that this year is going to be the year of volatility in which there's going to be a lot of opportunities but a lot of risks on the way up as well.
You mentioned macro and I you're you're historically a macro guy. So I do want to ask you about the two big reports this week. Um one on the job market that is coming on Wednesday, one on consumer inflation that's coming Friday. And there too, do you think that perceptions of the US economy are broken right now or do you think that What do you think the folks are sort of getting wrong as we ramp up for that data?
So on the employment report, it's it's really striking the range of estimates. So the the medium forecast if you like is a job creation of 70,000 last month. The range, Julie, is minus 10,000 to 135,000. Wow. So that's an enormous range and it tells you that we're not quite understanding the labor market.
And there's a good reason for that is that if you step back, Julie, we have this phenomenon of job growth decoupling from GDP growth. So we we are an economy that's growing by 4% a year. That's really good. But we're worried about a weak labor market. That is an issue. So I'm going to be looking at the internals, seeing is it a supply issue in the labor market, is it a demand issue?
On inflation, it is critical that goods inflation doesn't go up too much as service inflation comes down. And that's what I'm going to be looking at in terms of the CPI report on Friday. Um So when we are looking at what the Fed might do this year, um you know, under a Kevin Warsh assuming that he does end up getting confirmed when all is said and done as the next head of the Fed, um how do you think a Warsh Fed is going to be reacting?
You know, we were looking at I don't think anybody's expecting, for example, a change in rates at the next meeting or maybe under, you know, under Powell that the Powell Fed is sort of done. What do you think the Warsh Fed looks like? So the market doesn't expect a change in rates until June after [clears throat] the new chair comes in if if everything goes well for Kevin Warsh.
And at that point, they expect the market is pricing 60% probability of a hike. So, that's what the market is saying. Um there are three aspects to focus on on on a new Fed. One is that the mindset is going to change from being excessively data dependent, and that's what the Fed has been for the last 3 years after that big mistake in 2021-22, to being more forward-looking.
And it seems that the incoming chair is embracing the Greenspan view that if you think productivity is increasing, the safe speed limit for the economy, meaning non-inflationary growth, goes up. So, rates can be lower. The second element that we would be focusing is on the balance sheet. Um Kevin Warsh wants a theory of the balance sheet.
He doesn't just doesn't want reactions. He wants to know what is the the optimal size, just like we have some notion what is the neutral interest rates. And then the third thing, the most important thing, Julie, that people aren't talking enough about is reforms to the way the Fed operates, its models, its communication, its compliance culture, its accountability.
These are things that if you look at Kevin Warsh's April speech in Washington in particular, he this is something that he wants to pursue. Yes, most definitely. And I think that's the expectation both on the part of the public and maybe on the part of the White House, also. Mohamed El-Erian, here. It's It's Super Bowl Monday.
You know, we just had the Super Bowl last night. Your beloved Jets weren't playing, but someone who's familiar to Jets fans was on another team and did pretty well. So, I'm just Did you watch the game? How did you feel about it? I watched the game. I worried throughout the game that the Patriots would win would come back and win because I've I've them do this so many times.
I laughed today when someone posted on X the less Jets fan let's be happy that the quarterback we drafted won the Super Bowl. So, you know, at the end of the day I was quite happy with with the outcome, but mainly because the Patriots lost. If you're a Jets fan and you've been tortured as long as I have by the Patriots, the last thing you wanted them to see is win a Super Bowl so quickly after their last one.
Yeah, you can you take your victories where you can Muhammad. I guess that's the takeaway from it. Great to see you. Thanks so much for joining us. Thanks for having me Julie. Coming up on Yahoo Finance is Opening Bid. The host of Opening Bid is of course Brian Sozzi. Our senior reporter Brooke DiPalma is going to be there, but you're both here with me because you guys are going to be talking about the Super Bowl.
We talked about it Friday. I don't know if Sozzi wants to do a little replay of his dance on Friday after we were were anticipating only show Julie. You ain't getting any more dancing out of me. All I got for you is my favorite Super Bowl ad and that was the Ring ad with all those two puppies that were lost and they were found.
Got to shout out Jamie Siminoff. He was on my podcast today. Jamie big win. Big win. You put puppies on the screen I'm all in. I don't actually I didn't see that Got to see it. Love the puppies. and watch that, but I saw the halftime show. I was touching Julie. I was dancing on my couch for the for the halftime show.
I didn't care much about the game. Got to be honest, but I did enjoy that halftime show. How'd you dance on the couch? You like just dance while you're sitting down. You've never danced while you're sitting down? That's like you're going to ruin your couch doing that Julie. Go check out that ad though Ring.
Let's go see the I WAS I WAS UP AND OFF THE COUCH. I I was dancing off the couch. I thought it was absolutely amazing. The the set creation of that halftime show absolutely blew me away. And also so many people of local vendors even from one from Brooklyn and one from Highland Park in California. It was It was really beautiful to see that as well.
Also guys I would be remiss if I didn't give a shout out to my alma mater Marist College. The kicker for the Seahawks Jason Myers. He scored a record five field goals last night. So, I just have to say go red foxes guys while we're talking about it. Wow, it's big. It's big. Definitely big. All right, thanks guys.
Looking forward to much more Super Bowl talk and I know you're going to talk about the markets, too. So, Look forward We've got everything for you, Julie. Please tune in. I'm ready. I will. All right, guys. Keep it right here. Opening Bell is next.
Comments 0