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결론: 빌 애크먼은 2022년 인플레이션 과소 집계와 연준의 긴축 지연을 이유로 시장 급락을 예상하며 금리 상승 베팅(스와프션·CDS)으로 하락에 대비하고 있다. [빌 애크먼 이력] 2004년 이후 연평균 16.9%로 S&P500(약 9.6%)을 크게 웃돌았다고 소개. 2020년 팬데믹 때 2,700만 달러 규모 하락 헤지를 26억 달러로 불려 큰 수익을 냈고, 이후 폭락한 주식을 저가 매수했다. 허벌라이프 공매도 등 행동주의 투자 사례가 있으나 대중 설득에 실패해 손실로 청산한 사례도 언급. [2022년 급락 근거] 정부가 지난 1년간 약 5.1조 달러(GDP의 25%)를 찍어냈고, 바이든 법안이 추가로 약 2조 달러 재정지출을 더한다고 주장. 재정 과잉에 대응해 금리 인상과 긴축이 필요하다는 입장으로 연준에 발표. 금리 상승 시 신용 축소로 경기 둔화가 기대되어 긴축이 필요하다고 봄. [인플레이션 주장] 보고된 OER(귀속임대료) 기반 CPI가 과소 집계되었고 단독주택 임대 데이터는 임대료 17% 상승을 보인다고 주장. 이를 반영하면 근원 CPI 9.0%, 전체 CPI 10.1%라는 주장으로 인플레이션이 정부 발표보다 훨씬 높다고 봄. 주택 인플레이션은 수급상 쉽게 꺾이지 않을 것으로 전망. [기타 리스크] 중국 성장 둔화, 오미크론 등 신규 변이, 공급망 제약, 지정학적 리스크, 사이버 보안 리스크 언급. [시장 전망] 진행자는 향후 몇 달 간 보합을 예상하고, 3월 전 금리 인상 가능성을 언급하며 당장 강세장은 어렵다고 봄. 다만 확정적 결론은 유보. [출연자 전망] 빌 애크먼: 인플레이션 장기화를 근거로 시장 급락 베팅 중이며 금리 상승을 기다림.
다듬은 글
everybody welcome back to the channel okay today we've got to talk about something very very important as you can see it's important because i have a pen in my hand and when i have a pen in my hand that means i can take some notes and the pen just fell because these things are extremely important to talk about bill ackman bill ackman legendary investor we're gonna get into this video today a little bit about his history for people who don't know who bill ackman is and we're gonna talk about his warning for 2022 and what he predicts will be a black swan event in which something out of the ordinary is going to happen and in his opinion it will be a market crash which he has been right about in the previous few times where he has made money off shorting the market but in this case it's a little bit tricky to figure out is he going to be right is he not going to be right how is he logically justifying this you know when bill ackman speaks i tend to listen not because i think he's correct about everything or i'm obsessed with him or i i trust him as an investor over something like kathy or warren or anything like that but he's one of those people that has a lot of logic when he does speak whether he's right or wrong or whether you always agree with him there is logical foundation behind uh the analysis that he provides and sometimes he ends up being massively right as he did with the pandemic and uh 2020 which we'll talk about in a second and sometimes he's wrong so i want to talk about today the history of bill ackman and why he thinks a crash is coming couple quick facts he has beaten the s p 500 uh by by eight percent so he used uh average return since 2004 for 16.9 percent per year uh compounded annually and the s p has done about 9.6 since that time so he's beaten the market almost by double every year so the guy knows what he's doing in terms of hedging and betting investments right some years are worse than others but nonetheless 16.9 per year on average not bad 2020 march 2020 when he went on cnbc and he told the president to shut everything down he was getting a lot of media attention because he turned 27 million dollars of a hedge on the market to 2.6 billion dollars as a result of the pandemic they had a lot of long positions in equities that were ultimately failing right like hilton hotel companies obviously those stocks were going down they put a hedge a hedge means they shorted the market and to in a basic description when you short the market that means you make money by making a bet that the market will go down they made such a monumental hedge to the tune of 27 million that even though their long equity positions within certain stocks decreased dramatically the hedge was so substantial that they turned 27 million to 2.6 billion and then they were able to take those 2.6 billion dollars after exiting that short position and dump it into the companies that got destroyed by the pandemic so it was a phenomenal move just in terms of pure business because they were able to take 20 million bucks turn it into 2 billion bucks and then take all that money and then dump it into these stocks at horrible reduced prices because of the pandemic to only make their long positions even more substantial because they were able to buy these stocks at such undervalued prices he is also an activist investor and this is the one thing to understand about bill ackman if you've never seen a documentary on him i think there's one on youtube i'll try to put in the description if i find it which is about herbalife herbalife is in my opinion a multi-level marketing company in mlm for those people who don't know what mlms are they're pyramid schemes at the end of the day they don't sell you anything they sell you something in which you can sell other people things and the real value comes from you selling other people on the thing versus actually selling a product or service uh bill ackman is an activist investor and an activist investor is someone who wants the public to recognize that these companies are doing bad things and mlm is obviously a very bad thing and they short those companies and if you short those companies that means if you can get the public to recognize that these companies are bad that they are mlms that they are frauds and you have a massive short position then the stock price dramatically drops which means you make a lot of money on the upside this is what happened uh with game gamestop and amc or what was supposedly supposed to happen with hedge funds shorting them but obviously because uh the public and wall street bets and the stock groups got to know that this was happening they revolted and they were able to rally together and get the stock price to go up so there is a lot of activist investing involved in a lot of different uh sectors of the market and bill ackman refers himself as an activist investor even going by so far to say that he's he was he was ready to donate all the profits that he was making off of his herbalife short because he knew that if he could donate that money that means that the public couldn't say that he has a financial incentive to get people to recognize that herbalife is a bad company or an mlm they would actually be listening to him just to listen to him because if you're donating all the profits then why would you go through all the time and energy to like create a massive movement against this company and short it when you are not going to get any of the benefits of that now the reason i think he did that is because ultimately you get more attention right so like even if you donate the 100 million dollars you would make off that short if more people believe in you and trust in the words that you have to say your reputation increases so the next time that you actually short the market because you were right on the mlm thing that means people are going to listen to you and that time you're actually going to make a lot of money when you choose to do something in an activist sense because you're not donating anything so he's been a very strategic person in terms of how he's done certain things now herbalife the public didn't agree they didn't think it was a fraud they didn't think it was an mlm and he ended up having to exit that trade uh in in the red not making any money off that short uh even though if you watch that documentary it's very obvious that herbalife is an mlm so sometimes it doesn't work out but he's not right all the time he's not always going to be financially right all the time but this is a guy who's been involved in the market for a long time now he particularly hates what's going on with inflation and that is his ultimate argument for why the stock market is going to crash in 2022 a couple of unique things here in october he gave a president to a president a presentation to the fed in which he said we need to raise rates and there were a couple reasons for this number one the government has printed about 5.1 trillion dollars in the past year which accounts to 25 of gdp so 25 of the gross domestic product that the united states has released has been printed in the past year at the tune of 5.1 trillion dollars which is absolutely insane he said that the buildback better plan which didn't end up getting passed yet but has the potential to get passed and biden somehow pulls it off um increases another two trillion dollars of the next five six seven eight years of more fiscal policy and more irresponsible spending from his perspective so his argument is that we're spending way too much money we need to taper and we need to increase interest rates uh if you increase interest rates uh you you naturally de-stimulate the economy because it's harder to get money because the cost of borrowing money becomes harder so that means consumers are less likely to borrow money that means businesses are less likely to borrow money which means less money gets pumped into the economy which is a good thing when the value of your dollar is inflating at such a level in which you need to ultimately deflate it this led him to ultimately create a sort short position on the market now he's doing something where he is shorting credit he's doing two things credit default swaps and then put swaptions which in layman's terms or he's betting that interest rates are going to go up and as a result of interest rates going up his swaptions that he has on those interest rates going up mean that the market is going to go down which means he's going to make a lot of money if he's correct that interest rates go up and if he's not correct that interest rates don't go up uh then he's still not going to lose that much of a money so it's a very strategic type of hedge that he has and if they do go up if there is that type of black swan outlier event he will end up making a lot of money on shorting the market a couple of tweets i want to read that are really important to talk about when it comes to bill ackman and his investing philosophy he said that uh reported inflation is understated the owner's equity the owner's equivalent rent the oer relies on owner's surveys to estimate inflation housing costs this is an extremely imprecise metric so he doesn't believe the inflation metrics that the government or other surveys have provided the single-family rental market provides more accurate data oer in today's reported core cpi was 3.5 year-over-year he then said the largest owners of national of nationwide single family rentals are reporting 17 year-over-year rent increase oers 30 of the core cpi calculation and 24 of the reported cpi using the more empirical research in the calculation increases today's core cpi from 4.9 percent to 9 points uh to 9.0 and cpi from 6.8 percent to 10.1 percent so cpi is more for consumers oers for owners equivalent rent and he says both of those metrics that have been reported by the government are totally false because there's other variables that you have to consider in terms of how inflation is increasing he then said housing inflation is unlikely to abate based on supply and demand trends the inflation that households are actually experiencing in terms of the money they have to pay for the rent year over year and for the natural goods that they have to buy like you know milk and toothpaste and stuff like that is raging and well in excess of reported governmental statistics some other main factors that he's saying that are going to be bad for the market are weakening china growth emergence of new coveted variants we've seen that with omicron second order impacts from supply chain constraints this is the stuff that kathy's been talking about or why there's going to be a free recession because of supply chain constraints geopolitical risks and obviously cyber security risks those things are kind of macro level they're involved in in most economies year after year the big thing is he believes the fed is under reporting inflation and because he thinks inflation is not transitory and because he's been right on some other occasions when he's found uh things that are going on in the market that are obvious to see if you do the research to see like buying a pound here at the stock that's my opinion not financial advice but it's pretty obvious that they're going to be pretty big uh then you can make a lot of money when you see things that other people don't see it's kind of the fact of life like if you see things that other people don't see and you take bets and actions based on the things that you see that other people don't you have a much higher potential of profiting off of those things if you're right now is there a chance you're wrong absolutely but if there is a chance that you are right then there is a big big chance you are right he's been right before in certain situations with inflation in today's market he does not think it's transitory he actually being under reported because of core metrics that aren't really evaluating the key variables that need to be evaluated which means the 6.8 cpi index for for for inflation that was reported back in december or early december is actually 10.1 percent if you factor in all those other different variables which means the cost of your dollar is decreasing by 10 not just 6 percent and that's only gonna get worse if the fed doesn't stop printing the money and if they continuously leave rates on on unchecked and don't increase the rates because when you increase the rates you at least have a chance to check back against inflation if you don't then you have no chance so that's basically his his argument and he's already disclosed that he has a short position on the market and he's waiting for rates to go up and he's waiting for a market crash to happen now how bad will the market crash be how long is he going to keep this position we don't know because there might be a day where he's like i think i'm wrong about it i'm just going to get out of this but if he's right about this and if he actually sees something that the rest of the market doesn't see any and he thinks that the s p is way overly uh valued he thinks the nasdaq is way overly valued he thinks a lot of these stocks that are growing while kathy's stocks are decreasing all of it is messed up and there's like a wonky thing going on in the market in which the fed is artificially creating liquidity in order for the stock market to be at the levels that it's at which are all-time highs by the way and they're getting higher and higher as we get into the end of the year of december 2021 then it's really going to be interesting to see if 22 it's just going to keep going or there's going to be a massive correction my opinion i don't know i i think i'm learning more about the stock market i don't want to give a definitive uh uh answer on what i think is going to happen what i do think is going to happen is in general i think we're going to be flat for the next couple months i don't think there's going to be massive exponential growth especially especially with inflation still being a concern and especially with interest rates likely going to be raised by march if that's going to happen then i don't think there's going to be a massive bull market happening anytime soon but again there can be outliers a lot of different things can happen geopolitical risks can occur and there can be something unique that that happens but this is why bill ackman thinks that uh inflation is going to be one of the major leading causes and it's not that complicated his argument is very simple he's like there's too much inflation most people don't recognize it i'm shorting the market because i think this inflation is going to get really bad and i'm going to make a lot of money off that short will he be correct i don't know i guess we are going to see what happens let me know what you guys think about bill ackman's strategy are you shorting the market do you think it's you know do you have the stomach to short the market in case the market goes up or do you think you're going to hold true to your convictions because you agree with this philosophy that inflation is bad and if we're not going to do anything about it then the market is going to crash let me know guys thoughts looking forward to reading the comments my name is mitt i'll see you in the next one
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