저자: AmitKukreja · 외국인
요약 보기
로빈후드 S&P500 편입 이후 주가 긍정 기대, 다만 매도 재료 공존. 토큰 OKTO(8CO) 1000%+ 급등, Tom Lee·Dan Ives의 월드코인 관련 BMNR 투자 논의(진행자는 중립~약한 강세 평가). SpaceX의 EchoStar 인수 발표로 AST 급락 및 위성통신 경쟁구도 우려. 엔비디아는 바닥권 강세 논리, AI 데이터센터 베어케이스는 근거 약하다는 입장. 아르헨티나 페소·ARGT 급락 언급.
다듬은 글
Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. It is Monday, September 8th. This is the second week of September. It is Monday. We are live and we are alive as well and we got a market to open up. Uh, thank you everybody for being here. I am not in my original studio or my apartment studio.
I am in the actual recording studio that this apartment complex has. The reason for that being sound is a lot better here. Still trying to get soundproofed in my apartment studio. As you can see in the back, the audio filming here is like really good. So, I'm going to try to get something similar done in my studio as well.
Uh, but we're here. We're live for the market open. This is going to be a bit of a rocky week in terms of the schedule for the market open and market close. I will put out a post on YouTube a little bit later on um the days we can do the show, the days we can't. Reason being is I'll be in Vegas for two days for the Robin Hood Summit.
That company that just so happened to be named a top 500 company on Friday. So, we'll uh we'll talk more about that as well. But uh I I think the clo the well the open and close today should be fine from here. And uh then it gets a little Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. We're going to have to figure out how we can do the show.
But Wednesday for sure in the morning I'll be able to do the show from Vegas. It'll just be earlier at like 5:45 West Coast time. Uh and hopefully I'll have some people who can be on the show with me as well. But we're live today. We are live and we are here. It has been quite the weekend in terms of different updates I've seen in the financial markets.
We got a ton of news already in the pre-markets that we are about to get into. The biggest news last week, Robin did get into the S&P 500. very very big news for myself who's been following the company for the past four or five years for a lot of people that have been part of the journey a lot of people who invested even if you invested five months ago at April you know 30 40 bucks I mean the stock has done incredibly well so for those that have been following Vlad his mission his journey it has been quite incredible to see I think the stock should get a pretty healthy pump today now granted there's a lot of macro stuff we've got going on this week that we will talk about that could stop it from getting that pump uh or you know it might get that pump but just get sold off but in general usually when you get into the S&P 500 on average about two months later you're up 18%.
And based on the momentum that Robin Hood has, based on the event happening this week, based on banking launching in the fall, there's a lot of things to be excited about and I think that could lead to some momentum, but it also could just be a sell the news and, you know, people take some of their profits even though the S&P inflows will happen September 22nd when the rebalance actually takes place.
Long term, regardless of the short-term price action, it is a very, very big thing for Hoodie to be in the S&P 500. and we're going to see how the market reacts to it later this week. Tesla right here at 354 in the pre-markets. Palenteer 15370. Nvidia that's up 167. S&P all-time highs was 652 that we hit on Friday.
Then we went back down to 640. Now we're back at 648. I would say the word of the month on the S&P continues to be resilient. And the S&P uh continues to be pretty damn resilient. We got to the lows of 634 last Monday. Now we're at 648. If we can just hold these levels and out uh September, I would be pretty happy.
But that's what you have on the S&P 500. AMD right there is up a little bit in the pre-markets. Google actually trying to go for an all-time high 23611 in the pre-markets. We got some updates on Google and Apple that we'll talk about. Apple was at 240 last night. Apple right here is at 239.86. Apple and Google being part of the reason why the S&P 500 has been so resilient.
So, we'll talk more about that. Bitcoin right here 112. You got BMR that's up a little bit in the pre-markets 4236. Ethereum as well doing some stuff. 4319. It was at 4100 last night. We do have some updates on Tom Lee and Dan Ies and a collaboration between Tom Lee and Dan Ies. Let's just say this company Octo uh well the ticker symbol is Octo but uh the the name of the company is 8CO is up 940% in the pre-markets.
We'll talk about why but uh it's up a lot and it's getting a lot of hype right now and we'll discuss kind of what's going on with that company and why it's getting the momentum that it is getting. So, we will go through that and keep going from there. Triple V, thank you. Good morning to you. Thank you for the super chat.
Thank you for the 200 Dolores. He he uh he actually he got a nice uh dip by on the bottom. Let's just say I think on Friday I told you guys he bought 100,000 shares of Hood at 98, 100,000 shares of BMR at 40.5, and then 100,000 shares of Nvidia at like 165. Not too bad. Not too bad given all of those stocks are up.
Obviously, Hoodie uh being up the most. So, he's, you know, Hoodiey's up $10 from when he bought it. He bought 100,000 shares. That's a million bucks. Um but also, Triple V has like something like four or five million shares of Hood. So, I think he's up like 40, $50 million over the past 48 hours. So, not too bad.
And look, hopefully Hood can continue this momentum. Could I see it being sold off? Yeah. But at the end of the day, the S&P 500 inflows means that like what? It's really going back to 95. like we if the entire market knows that it's about to get bought up by thousands of institutions across the world.
I don't know. I think there's somewhat of a floor to the stock probably in the in the low hundreds. I think it's going to be hard for it to go below 100, but realistically it should be in the 110 115s. And so today's the first day of trading after S&P inclusion. We're going to see at 9:30 how the market opens and how they treat this stock as we get into uh the post S&P inclusion era for Robin Hood as it is now a top 500 company in the world.
All right, so let's get started. Good morning. Good morning. Thank you everybody for being here. First, let's get started on this uh Tom Lee Dan Ies news. I saw this this morning and I don't know what to think. I'm going to put a poll in the chat right here on if you think this is bullish or bearish.
Honestly, I I I mean I don't know. I think to some extent it's bullish, but to some other extent I think it could be kind of not. So, um, bullish or bearish, I'm going to just put that right there in the chat based on the BMR investment, and I'll see what you guys think. So, this is what we've got going on.
Bit mine has made a strategic investment. It is their first moonshot investment into Oakto, a company that will initiate the world's first World Coin Treasury strategy. Worldcoin, you guys remember that from Tom Lee or not from Tom Lee, from Sam Alman? It's that like biometric. It scans your eye and then it like tells you how to it basically is a it is Sam Alman's way of solving identity and proof of human proof of authentication inside of our society.
Um, by the way, AS is down 14%. I don't know why the hell it's down 14%. I will try to get some news on that in a second. I'm just seeing that right now for the first time with you guys, but AS is down 14%. So, I'll look at that in a second. But, um, Dan Ies is the chairman of the board of this company.
Bitmine's investing $20 million. And again, Worldcoin is a cryptocurrency developed by Sam Alman. Now, why did Tom Lee make this investment? He said, "Bitine wants to support and back innovative projects that create value for the Ethereum network. As an ERC20 native token, World is aligned with Ethereum.
World's unique zero knowledge proof of human credential could be essential to future trust and safety between technology platforms and their billions of human users." Okay. Bull and Bearcase. bare case is a treasury company is investing in another treasury company and that feels bearish because it's like too much treasury inception too much toiness yada yada like I can understand that perspective and what people are thinking from there bullish perspective is well I mean at the end of the day Bit mine is making a moonshot investment aka they they kind of aren't expecting it to like work right that's the whole point of a moonshot is like if it works it really works if it doesn't work it's like okay we lost 20 million which Bit mine can afford to take those types of bets uh because if they didn't spend it on this they would probably just invest in Ethereum.
Well, in this case, they're getting a lot of equity. That equity might do a lot better than I mean, in fact, that equity is up 10x in the pre-markets, right? We'll see how that one plays out. But essentially, this is kind of Tomley's vision for Bitmine. Very similar to Micro Strategy's vision, which by the way, Sailor bought another 1,200 Bitcoin this morning.
Um, the argument is how do we use the money that we're raising not only to buy Ethereum, not only to stake our Ethereum, but then to become a kind of ETH lending company? It's it's not exactly the correct terminology, but like a player inside of the global ecosystem for Ethereum so that we can make investments in all these different decentralized financial products and allow them to thrive on top of Ethereum, which helps our bag of the at this point 2 million Ethereum that Tom Lee has now raised.
That's another update on BMR. They just raised 2 million or they they now own 2 million uh worth of Ethereum. They've officially crossed over 2.069 million. And um if they invest in more companies that are building on the Ethereum network and the Ethereum network gets more valuable, obviously Ethereum as an asset should get more valuable.
So to me, I think it's bullish because they're just doing what their playbook is. If they lose 20 million, they lose 20 million. But if World Coin succeeds and you know, you got Sam Alman at the head of it. I mean, Sam Alman at the end of the day, he's you know, he has a lot of connections with we saw what happened with Oaklo, you know, just because Cham Alman was the chair of the board of that company when it came to nuclear energy.
So I think there was a lot of synergies for this to make sense. And now Dan Ies is also the um the chairman of this. Dan Ies was on CBC. We'll hear what he has to say about this in a second, but I don't think it's the most bearish in the world, but I can understand the argument of crypto treasury companies investing in crypto treasury companies.
It feels kind of bearish. Uh six 70% of you say bullish. Cool. So 7030 think bullish or bearish. And again, I think if this was an investment just for the hell of the investment, then I wouldn't be bullish about it. But the reason I'm leaning more bullish is because if it's using if Worldcoin, which already has 16 million users, is using Ethereum as their back end and and you know, Sam Alman, Tom Lee, Dan Ives are all investing into this broader Ethereum network.
To me, it's not the the craziest thing in the world. So, that is the piece of news on in regards to OTO and that's why that stock is now up a lot in the pre-markets. But if but ASTO right here, that's up 1,000% in the pre-markets. reminds me of BMR on July 4th when they when that one went public. Uh, obviously that one then crashed.
I mean, it got to 160, then came all the way back down to 27. So, I personally am not chasing OTO. I mean, I don't know if it deserves to be up a,000% in a in a day, but then again, it's a very small company. So, like, you got to just kind of see how this plays out. If you're playing the momentum, then you're playing the momentum on this as All right.
The reason they're down is because um SpaceX acquired Echoar. SpaceX acquired Echoar. Uh I believe this is for what 17 billion in cash. Echoar looks like another company in the satellite communications space. Uh Elon Mus SpaceX agrees to buy Echoar Spectrum for 17 billion. And as a result of the consolidation it looks like in some of the telecommunication space uh yeah 17 billion in cash and stock as which is the other leader in this space is getting hit.
Um yeah this is the headline. I've honestly never heard of Echo. I've heard of Spectrum but is Echosar just the parent company of Spectrum? I feel like I've heard of Spectrum many times, but this is the headline. 17 billion, 8.5 billion in cash, 8.5 billion in stock. SpaceX and Equar will enter into a long-term commercial agreement which will enable Echosar's Boost Mobile Oh, Boost Mobile.
Wow. Okay. They own Boost Mobile through its cloudnative 5G core to access SpaceX's next generation Starlink direct to cell service. CEO says, "For the past decade, we've acquired Spectrum and facilitated worldwide FG Spectrum standards and devices, all with the foresight that direct to cell connectivity via satellite would change the way we communicate.
This transaction with SpaceX continues our legacy of putting the customer first as it allows for the combination of AWS4 and HBlock spectrum from Echoar with the rocket launch and satellite capabilities from SpaceX to realize the directtoell vision in a more innovative, economical, and faster way for consumers worldwide.
Okay, I do not know enough about to be either super bullish or bearish. So, I'm going to ask another question in the chat. 70% of you said bullish on the BMR investment. I'll ask you right here. Uh as uh uh SpaceX acquiring Echoar, bearish or bullish for as I mean I don't think it has to be the most bearish just because there's some consolidation happening in the space.
Um Chris says kind of weird because SpaceX buying Echoar only solidifies the value of AS. Uh it means there's a business there. Okay. So Chris Patel, which by the way, he'll be at Vegas as well. So for anyone who's in Vegas, you'll be able to see Chris for the hood event. Uh is basically arguing that as business model gets validated by the acquisition, which I mean, yeah, look, if SpaceX is if AS is a competitor with Echoar and SpaceX, and SpaceX is willing to give up 17 billion for one of their competitors, it probably makes the argument that they would pay that much for an AS if they saw the strategic value in it long term in the future.
probably would pay even more than 17 billion for that. So, you could say it's validating. I guess the market perception immediately is like, wait a second, that's market share that's going to go away from AS. But, you know, that market share was already not part of AS's market, right? That was part of Echoar's market.
So, just because they're combining with SpaceX and two markets are now merging, that doesn't mean AS was taking away that market share anyway because Echoar was an was an independent company along with SpaceX. So, it's kind of feels like a sort of just a headline perception of, oh, more consolidation bad for a competitor if SpaceX and Echoar now really begin to take over other markets that AS could go into, which I guess I could see that as bearish.
I'm not sure if that deserves to be down 15% in the pre-markets right here. It gives a bigger, more monopolistic competitor. Yeah, that's essentially exactly what I'm trying to say. a more monopolistic competitor via SpaceX is now merging uh with Echoar, which probably makes it a bit harder, at least from a perception perspective of AS.
So, there you go. That's what you got. What do you guys say in the poll? Um, let's see. 52% say bullish. All right. So, 5050 on bullish or bearish on this acquisition. Let's see how the stock reacts. I mean, if in 30 minutes if this opens up down another 15% and it's down like 30% on a day, then that means the the the thesis is incredibly fragile for an acquisition to take a stock down 30%.
I mean, that that just feels like to me a lot of people, whether they're institutional, retail, whoever's selling it, uh, do not have enough belief in the company that they can withstand an acquisition. AS by the way, has a market cap of 15 billion. So, the company that got acquired basically got acquired for the same market cap of AS right now.
Obviously, they are producing more revenues than AS, but the long-term potential of AS is why they're such a big retail community and why they like this company. Um, so I don't think it deserves to fall 30 40% just based on a headline. But if that does happen, then it does show some of the fragility on this name.
And I guess we'll see when the market opens how that plays out. Rocket Lab probably down because of that as well. Yeah, Rocket Lab, there you go. Down about 2.81%. Even though this acquisition, I don't think necessarily affects Rocket Lab to the the same extent. Um, okay, cool. So, that's what we got there.
Let me go over to Dan Ies. This is what he said this morning about this uh new world coin treasury thing that he's doing with Tom Lee. Let's take a look at this and then we will keep going from there. Technology research, a senior analyst. He's also now chairman of ACO Holdings, which is the treasury company for world.
So, has got uh a couple different hats he's wearing this morning. Dan, for those who don't understand all of this, um, and maybe even thinking to themselves, is their eye scan going to be used in some kind of other crazy way? Explain it all for us. Yeah, I mean, look, I'd say in this AI revolution, when you think about everything going on in terms of the trillions being spent, the biggest thing missing is identification, authentication, and you know what Sam and Alex and the team have built at world.
When you think about these orbs, the iris scanning, in my opinion, this is going to be the de facto standard when we think about separating from bots, identifying humans, and ultimately this is really more of an infrastructure play. It's it's really the intersection of AI and crypto. That's why I'm so excited, you know, has taken this role as chairman given my passion for AI and and what I think the role that world's going to play.
So just so I understand it, I will is it a trade? I mean some people say you're trade and you explain it to us. I'm giving over my my iris or whatever in exchange for currency. Is that how this works? Yeah, essentially. And but when you think about from a security perspective, it's I believe it's the most secure platform there is in the world relative to you know the zero knowledge trust and the way that this has actually been built.
You know, I've done the scans myself and you think about today 15 million have actually gone down this path and I believe it's going to be on a path to 100 million and more because in the future in the world of AI I think a ceiling ultimately on AI growth I mean about all the LMS and all the trillions being spent data centers is going to be authentication identification and that's why we're so passionate you know in terms of you know this treasury and and really focused on world it's everything Sam and the team has built and that's why I'm here.
Dan, explain this. I always thought that if there was a product like this that would uh win the day that either Apple or maybe Google or somebody else like that could win in the context of I've got my camera on my phone. I've got LAR on the phone. All the other uh I don't know if I have LAR on the phone, but I have you know I I they can they can do different things to capture things in my face.
I would have thought that that would win. No. Yeah. I think in the past, yes, but in the future, no. And I think, you know, I think Sam and the team, they saw the future because as we go toward robots and you go toward more and more bots, especially in this AI world, that's something that the only true way in terms of identification authentic is going to be irran.
Now, I believe more and more tech platforms are ultimately going to adopt this and that's why we're doing this now because this is still I kind of view where this is almost where Nvidia was in 2022, Palunteer 2022 relative to as we go into this authentication layer of AI and that's why I'm just so excited as someone that's so passionate as a tech analyst this intersection of AI and crypto.
All right. So that is the argument from Mr. Dan Ives on worldcoin. Uh just being objective here. I'm not fully convinced that that is like a important use case identification proof of human. Now granted I also have not done a ton of research into it. So I I I quite frankly cannot uh really give that much analysis on like how important the problem is about identification.
And in a world of AI with a lot of bots like I understand there's a use case for it. Do people want to give up their biometric data inside of their eyes to like some company inside of some cryptocoin? I don't know, dude. Like on on on first bet, I'm like, I kind of don't want to do that. Um, but I understand the Bit Mine investment here because their argument is, hey, for the people that do decide to do that, maybe it's not 8 billion people, maybe it's, you know, 500 million people, 16 million people in 45 countries already have agreed to do that.
Uh, that being built on Ethereum will make the Ethereum network more valuable. So, it's not really bearish. Tom Le's investment in this or Bitmine's investment in this. It's more so just questioning the the long-term utility of this, which I don't fully understand yet. But if there is any utility that makes Ethereum more valuable, then it makes sense for Bit Mine to probably be invested into it.
And I think this is kind of Tom Lee's vision. I think he's going to be doing a lot more of these 20, 30, 40 million strategic investments into companies building on Ethereum as they especially as Ethereum's price goes up and they're able to get that native uh staking yield and then take that money which essentially is like you know 100% margin gap net income and they can just deploy it into tons of different companies building on Ethereum and that kind of is I think the Bitmind vision if Ethereum does end up going to Tom Le's bullcase which is like in the 60 $70,000 range and so we're going to see how that one ends up uh playing out.
Uh, Jock, thank you for the super chat. Hey, Emit, can't thank you enough. Hoodie inclusion happened while my wife was in labor. Goodness, I had a quick peek and saw the spike and I just knew we have a beautiful baby girl and my portfolio is winning. That is a hell of a story. Uh, thank you for sharing it with all of us.
That is absolutely incredible. I was at a uh park on the bench because my flight, ironically, got delayed by three hours, which actually gave me the time to stream it with everyone in the community. And uh that's how I was able to to see it with you guys. But the fact that your wife was in labor and you took a look at the that's actually kind of wild, bro.
Your wife's in labor. You take a look at the screen just to see if Hood gets in. Uh hopefully the wife didn't see you peeking at the screen right there. I mean, that's probably going to me be neat to be whatever stock I'm covering when I'm like 37 and my wife's in labor. I might have to like, you know, keep the keep the Robin Hood legend opened up on in the doctor's office just to make sure that uh they might get into the S&P 500.
So, congratulations, man. Absolutely incredible. Uh congratulations on the beautiful baby girl and uh she she now enters into a world where her dad has a portfolio that is a bit higher based on this news of Robinet getting into the S&P. Here is what Tom Lee had to say this morning on crypto, the macro, the Fed, and then we'll keep going from there.
Target, then inflation, and therefore justifying actually one additional cut. So I think that makes sense to me because we know inflation and that August CPI gets reported this week may be elevating but that the markets are going to begin to view that as transitory whereas the weakness in the labor market as you know once it begins to to weaken it's very hard to reverse that momentum.
So I think it's important for the Fed to intervene quickly. And is your are you of the view three times this year minimum? Uh I sense to me if if I look at what the bond market's pricing, which is now essentially three cuts and the Fed is talking about two, the bond market is saying the Fed is behind in terms of how they're perceiving um the these changing conditions.
And so I think on on the 17th when the FOMC makes its rate decision, I I think there is a chance the Fed's responds to that. And if it does, it's it's going to be good news because the bond market is going to take comfort from the Fed recognizing the labor market's weakening. Hey Tom, even if the Fed cuts rates, it controls the short end but not the long end.
What what do you anticipate happens on the longer end? And what do you think happens to the mortgage market too as a result? Uh the long end is something to wonder about because we know globally um the 30-year especially has crept up. Um, and we know that the Fed and other central banks have acknowledged that monetary policy has a lot of influence up until fiveyear.
You know, the correlation is 90%. But once you get into the 10-year, the bond market is making its own decisions about growth. That so that is something kind of troubling. But on the other hand, I think mortgage rates could come down sharply because the spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year is over 300 basis points.
The 50-year average is around 160. So, the Fed, if it begins to resume cutting, and the bond market views that as essentially an easing trend, the 30-year mortgage could drop 150 basis points if the tenure doesn't even move. That that's a lot of easing for the housing market. That that is a big deal.
And I I I know you're not an economist, but you have to have probabilities are now 95% for that rate cut and uh likely 25 bips over 50 bips. There is like a 5% No, there's actually Wow. a 10% probability now for a 50 bip cut. I don't think we're going to get 50. Uh JP Morgan had a new note this morning and we'll talk about what they think, but they also think it's 25.
Bank of America said zero cuts since January this year. They now think two cuts, so they're also beginning to pivot. Uh it looks like we are going to get this rate cut. The question is going to be how does the market internalize that? We're going to hear nothing from the Fed for the next nine days because they're in a quiet period.
And then September 17th, we are going to see if we actually do get this cut. a view on where you think the economy is headed. If we get these Fed cuts and the economy, you know, doesn't take a a steep leg down despite what we've seen with the jobs market, that's one thing. But if if we get these cuts and you're also dealing with a slowing economy, potentially even a recession down the road, I mean, that's a completely different story.
Are you looking at these Fed cuts as for good reasons because we can do it and get away with it and it's going to improve the economy or you looking at this and thinking I worry about what comes on the other side? Uh yeah, I'm going to take the camp that I think that these cuts are actually going to be very constructive for the economy because the 30-year mortgage um is strangulating the economy.
We know housing is slowed dramatically um but we also know that there's a lot of pent-up demand for housing. So, it's a market that does need to be fixed in terms of easing sort of supply demand conditions. And we also know the ISM, which is a measure of business confidence, has been below 50 for 31 months.
It's the longest stretch since the ISM's ever been created. So, I think business confidence recovers if the Fed starts to cut. And so, the combination of easing mortgage rates, business confidence recovery, I think is kind of a broadening cycle. And actually, I think that's why small caps have been the second best performing group after mag 7 over the last eight weeks.
Tom, you know, one of the things that Scott Besson said was he thinks that the economy is actually in better shape than we think and and that the jobs numbers are going to get better. How does that factor into your thinking or does it? Uh, I mean, I I think on the margin I'd agree with Treasury Secretary Bezant's comments for two reasons.
one when we go through corporate earnings we don't have any increase in comments from businesses saying business tapered off in July or August so even though the labor market shows like it's deteriorated the last two months business conditions haven't in fact even the Fed's beige book um most regions reported improving conditions so that is one thing and the second is we know the labor market undergoes a lot of revisions and we get September's benchmark revisions.
I think it may show that the job market's been weak all year and in fact maybe the last few months have actually been stable. So I think Treasury Secretary Besson is sort of correct to an extent. Hey Tom, uh Bitcoin before we let you go tell us what you think. We're at about $111,000. The upside, the downside from here.
Uh Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are super sensitive to monetary policy. So, I think that September 17th is an important catalyst. Crypto typically does really well in the fourth quarter. So, I I think Bitcoin can easily get to 200,000 before your end. I know it's a big move. It's almost a double, but that's also
almost a double from here. Let's just hold on. Let's just take a quick pause. A double from here. So, everybody's listening to this. We're at $111,000 and you think we by Christmas time effectively we could be at 200,000? That's right. One of the reasons Bitcoin stalled this year, do you guys agree with that?
200 grand, even if we get 50 bips, even if we get 75 bips of cut, do you think 200 grand by December, that's a basically a $90,000 move in the next four months? The Fed's been on pause for 9 months. that pause all year. If you look at an easing cycle, that's only happened two other times in 1998 and 2024 where the Fed began to resume cuts in the fourth quarter in September.
Equities do really well. As you know, crypto is beta to equity. So, I think it's going to be a very strong fourth quarter. Small caps should also rally like IWM, but that also is really bullish for Ethereum, which is highly linked to small caps. So you're you are seriously bullish into into the into the end of the year at this point given these given these rate cuts.
You don't look at as a So I mean look I if Bitcoin's going to 200 grand by the end of the year um uh first of all my Hood 140 covered calls are going to be in trouble because I think Hood's going to be in a pretty good situation if Bitcoin's at 200K. Second of all the all the pain that the Micro Strategy bulls have been going through.
I mean, I would imagine they're not going to be that much more in pain if Bitcoin doubles from here in the next four months. I mean, look, I don't know if that's going to happen. I think the rate cuts being the catalyst. Right cuts are definitely a catalyst because you increase global liquidity, which means there's probably just more risk on behavior and assets uh that catch a bid.
Does it catch a bid to the extent of 200k in four months? I don't know. But if it does happen, obviously that would be pretty exciting. I do agree with Tom that crypto in general benefit, growth stocks will benefit, small caps will benefit. It's just a question of if we get those rate cuts. By the way, uh the NASDAQ today filed to allow tokenization and blockchain listing of stocks.
This is really bullish Robin Hood. It's also bullish Coinbase because Coinbase is trying to tokenize stocks. I think this week or September 20th, they're introducing like perpetual futures on the MAG 7. So, not necessarily tokenization of like the MAG7 itself, but they're starting to get more into the stock world given Coinbase realizes the opportunity with tokenization.
Kraken's getting into it as well. So, now the NASDAQ, which is a massive global exchange, $50 billion company, is saying we are going to allow the tokenization to the the the the tokenization of assets listed on our exchange, aka tokenized Amazon, tokenized Nvidia, tokenized Palunteer, and people will be able to trade it via the NASDAQ.
And the NASDAQ's probably doing it because they recognize, hey, there's a massive opportunity right here and, you know, we can make money as well from tokenization uh as like a platform for these companies that are offering it to all their customers via the exchange. So, I mean, really bullish and in general, I think that that that matters for Ethereum given a lot of that tokenization is guess what happening on Ethereum.
Take a look at a chart that I just got right here. Uh, Ethereum has overtaken Bitcoin and spot market share for the first time in the last five years. I mean, it's pretty incredible, dude. Now, obviously, Bitcoin's market cap is 4x higher than Ethereum. And, uh, I think more people know about Bitcoin than Ethereum, but this is very consistent with the ETF inflows versus the outflows that we've seen on Bitcoin versus Ethereum for the month of August.
Bitcoin lost 800 million, Ethereum gained 4 billion. you're just starting to see a lot more convergence of narratives and actual dollars going into these assets and as a result it's bullish for a lot of the derivative plays of those assets as well. Google right here 23587 that's green SoFi 2570 Amazon 234 broke out last week on that news from semi analysis that AWS growth will be upwards of 20% based on their tranium chips and that was good for Amazon.
Meta right here at 754 Salesforce at 250, Alpha 134, Apple at 240, Cororeweave actually down. This one's been a disaster since earnings 150 to now 87. The insiders have their lockup that expired. So, they are able to sell. Coinbase above 300. Rocket Lab right here 4465. AS is that one still getting hit?
AS is still getting hit down about 12.8%. In the pre-markets. Open, this one continues to get momentum. Apparently, Rob Schneider is buying Openoro as he tweeted uh this morning who is a famous comedian. So, um, as a result of that, I think that's also creating a bit of a pump as you can see right there.
Uh, I mean, look, I think it's taking a life of its own at this point in terms of the the stock. The, uh, Open Door Bulls are buying it, you know, and they're not selling. And as a result of buying and holding, I mean, at the end of the day, $4 billion company, could it become a billion dollar company?
Yeah, especially if more people continue to buy and hold. I think the two things to worry about are a dilution. Will a company do an offering, which I don't know if they need to. I think a lot of people think it would be smart to do that because they just got a free, you know, couple billion that they could easily raise in seconds.
And and and that dilution would be short-term pain, probably not long-term pain if, you know, the bulls continue to persist. And then number two is if they get a new CEO to actually turn around the business model, which maybe can happen, maybe can't. Remember the $82 target, I was looking at some of the numbers over the weekend, is based on a 5x forward revenue on $12 billion of sales by what 2028 I think is the argument.
For them to get a 5x forward multiple on uh future revenue, which you know, even SAS companies, like the average SAS company does not get that type of multiple, I think you would have to have massive margin enhancements to that revenue. Again, Open Door was doing a ton of revenue in 2021, but they weren't making as they weren't making any money because they barely had margins and they still don't make any money.
If they can fix that, then I think there is a world where this thing can easily turn around. I mean, I really do like if if they can fix the margin problem, yes, this this there's a fundamental story attached to this. If they can't fix the margin problem, then all the rate cuts in the world, all the houses being sold in the world is not going to solve the problem, which is a structural problem on them not having a margin.
If they can fix that, then things change. But I think if you're an open door bull, you ultimately have to see can they fix that long term going into going into their future. So that's what we got there for opend right here that's up 2.38%. Carvan is down a little bit. Applovin, shout out to Apploven 9%.
They also got into the S&P 500 and as a result of getting into the S&P 500, Robin and Apploven I believe were the two most deserving companies in the stock market. They ended up getting it 53750. That's up 9.6%. App 11 basically at alltime highs and then hoodie not at alltime highs. Again would not surprise me if we get a pump into that 1151 120 range today but we got to see if that plays out.
That is up 8% of the pre-markets to 110 for Robin Hood. So that's what we have there with some of this pre-market action. Uh we got this article by Politico which I don't know if it's the most accurate but this is what they're reporting. Uh, essentially Bent is not a fan of PY, the director of the housing administration.
And um, the quote that Politico has from sources at a dinner that Bent and PY were at were, "Why the f are you talking to the president about me? F you. I'm going to punch you in your effing face." That is what Bent apparently said to PY. Um, you know, there was a lot of analysis back in uh, what is it, March of Bent trying to punch Elon in the face.
This guy, he comes off as this like nice dude. Like if if these reports are true, bro has a dark side to him and it's a very violent side in regards to, you know, giving Elon a black eye, which I don't actually think happened from Bent. Um, and now threatening to to punch PY in his effing face. So yeah, I guess we're going to see how that ends up playing out, but that is an article that came out uh this morning from from Politico.
Um okay, in terms of some other macro news, obviously the jobs data we had last week was not the best and we had a negative revision for June. We had 22,000 jobs versus 75,000 jobs. I talked about this a lot last night on the Sunday future show. Ironically, the only reason the Fed is thinking of cutting is because we had a weak labor market.
And so I think there's a weird nuance here because Bent who was on NBC yesterday tried to explain what happened with the jobs report and realistically he couldn't re you know actually explain why the jobs report was bad. He kind of just said August is a noisy month and I don't think that's the best explanation.
But I ironically he shouldn't have the best explanation because you kind of need the labor market to be bad because inflation's not like dramatically going down for the Fed to even think that there's any possibility of cutting rates. So, I think this administration is going to have to deal with the nuance of, hey, we don't have good job growth.
And that job growth cannot get to horrendous job growth, aka negative hundreds of thousands of jobs because then we're in a recession. But we need to not also add a million jobs a month because then the Fed's not going to cut. And even if we get 25 or 50 bips for the Fed to continue cutting, they need to continue seeing some level of weakness in the labor market.
And I don't know if it's going to easily uh go down that route if, you know, we have a very weak labor labor market or a relatively strong labor market. So, we're kind of in a weird spot of how the data operates. And again, I think we should be cutting regardless of the labor market. But the Fed needs a reason and inflation is not their reason.
So, they're latching on to the labor market. The question is just how long can they continue to latch on to the to the labor market. Here's what Ben said yesterday about the jobs report. These chief economists called this a jobs recession. I want to give you the opportunity to respond to Mark Xandandy.
Do you see this as a jobs recession? Well, Kristen, the when I was here with you in April, there was a panic because the stock market had gone down and the uh you remained pretty calm, but a lot of other mainstream media people were in a complete lather over the stock market performance. President Trump, they held the views on tariffs.
He was proven right. We had the quickest stock market recovery in history. We're at new highs in August. And you know, we look, we're not going to the do economic policy off of one number. We believe that good policies are in place that are going to create good, high-paying jobs for the American people.
Uh two, let's look at the efficacy of this number. August is the noisiest month of the year. Typically, the highest revisions come in August. That's why it's important that we have good data. uh Austin Goulsby, who's head of the Chicago Fed and probably the most partisan person at the Federal Reserve in leadership, came out and said, "I don't know if these numbers were that weak.
I don't know if I'm going to vote for a cut in September because it may have something to do with the immigration deportations." So, this is why we need good data. Three, if in fact these numbers are true, it shows that President Trump was right about the Federal Reserve. they are too late and because of the bad numbers they likely would have been cutting the in June and if we believe the numbers and four I can tell you the one thing this administration is not going to do and we are not going to let the Democrat media surrogates do is the uh during President Biden President Harris's campaign they told the American people it's a vibe session you don't understand how good you have it President President Trump was elected for change and we are going to push through with the economic policies that are going to set the economy right.
So I think his last argument probably made the most sense which is hey uh if these numbers are true which again the administration is questioning the methodology of how they uh how the BLS calculates this data which I think they should be because I I cannot believe in our country we can't get accurate jobs data.
um if it is true his argument is like well then uh the Fed is late and it's like well yeah hoodie by the way over 110 yeah the Fed is probably late so I think the best thing Bent can say is if the numbers are as accurate as they are and I think that should be the narrative that they go with over the coming months if the numbers get worse which we don't want the numbers to get that much worse like we want the labor market to not be crazy hot but we don't want it to be crazy red either uh then the argument is the Fed needs to immediately cut and So I think the broader question here and this is something that we'll talk more about when it comes to 2026 portfolio planning is and I'm hearing I'm I'm just reading a lot more equity reports about this idea.
Evercore was the first one to come out with this concept last week which is what if we end up cutting rates to such an extent that um we end up creating an asset bubble like 2021 where you know rates are down so much. I mean you know and Trump's going to replace the the head of the Fed in May so like he's going to get someone who's very doubbish.
I don't know, do we get rates down to 2% 1.5% because then everything's going to the moon and then that creates a bubble and the question is how long does that bubble last? But it's not that easy for that bubble to necessarily pop because of the picture I'm about to show right here on the screen. This is JP Morgan's analysis of second quarter earnings.
Now, we already looked at some of this over the past couple weeks, but just to reiterate, 10.7% EPS growth year-over-year. 81% of companies beat estimates and earnings came in 8% above consensus, which is incredible. I mean, it's not easy to be 8% above consensus, especially when these companies have already been doing so well for the past two and a half years.
And then the Max 7 was responsible for 52% of market earnings growth. So, imagine we get into an asset bubble where like you cannot be in cash because you're literally just like losing your money to inflation. Um, and you're not getting compensated for any riskadjusted premium in like a money market fund.
But also, companies are growing really nicely based on AI as the tailwind. Maybe that asset bubble continues to bubble up for like a long time versus just like a 2021 and then 2022 it pops. What if it starts in 2026? Ever said S&P could hit 9,000 by then if we really get into that asset bubble and then it continues until like 2033 or something.
There there's a lot of different nuance to this and obviously we've got a lot of stuff to analyze in the meantime. But uh it is one of those things where I think the trade is or at least the the the strategy for now is you go max long. You go max long. I'm not I'm not saying S&P has to get to 9,000 by the end of next year, but I think it's better to be long right here versus short.
Uh I think being in cash is not a horrible situation obviously because if you get some dips then you know you need some cash to be able to buy those dips. But the idea of not being long going into a rate cutting cycle with earnings growth, this is the big caveat with earnings growth being as robust as it is, which it can turn into really bad earnings growth if we get a if we get a really bad economy in terms of the jobs numbers, right?
because when people lose their jobs, they can't spend their money on products and services. But if that doesn't happen to the extent that some of the more bearish side of the market thinks it's going to happen and you have inflation subdued, you have earnings growth going very strong and you have the labor market which is relatively flat and you have rates coming down, you have a bull market.
It's just going to be hard to deny at that point. You have a bull market. Robin right there up about 9.1% in the pre-markets. We did also have a bare market in April which is why I think maybe just maybe August and September have not gone at least so far conventionally with the historical uh projections of being down 1%.
Uh because simply we had a waterfall collapse in the S&P 500 to the tune of 4800 which was 2022 levels back in April. We have never seen something like that in the middle of the year. And if we have seen it like that it's not 30% down. it's maybe 10% down, maybe 15%, 30%. And then the the the the speed of which it recovered.
I mean, that probably messed up a lot of different things for sort of market psychology and market timing going into the end of the year. And maybe that's kind of what we're seeing play out as we approach the end of uh the end of 2025. So that's what we got in terms of the job market. Amit, are you down more than 10% on BMR?
Yes. I mean, my average is 4670. So what BMR is at 42 I am down well I'm down exactly 10.09%. Yeah. So not the best entry for me. I do continue DC actually technically I mean given all the covered call premiums I've collected my a I was calculating it on like Saturday. I think my average is more so like 4350 because I've collected a decent chunk of covered calls or covered call premiums.
Um but yeah in general I'm at 46. It's at 42. Again I I I don't care that much about being down 10% on it. really am starting to believe a lot more in Ethereum and I do think it probably will continue to get a multiple over SBET because ESB at the end of the day just isn't able to raise as much as BMR and as long as that continues longterm if Ethereum works out I think BMR getting to that 5% of Ethereum they're already 1.5% of the way there it probably is going to do better long term but we're going to see we're going to see how this ends up playing out over the coming month over the coming months especially as we get into the cutting cycle all right folks here we go let's get into it we got 20 seconds left until this market opens.
All eyes are on Hoodie as they are now in the S&P 500. Let's see how the market reacts to it. Thank you everybody for being here. It is Monday, September 8th, 9:30 a.m. Holy crap, I forgot my bell upstairs. Oh my goodness. This is not a good thing. I completely forgot my bell. This is bad. How did I forget my bell?
You know what? We're gonna have to go back to the YouTube short. Ladies and gentlemen, the stock market is now open. All right, let's get into it. Here we go. Robin Hood 11157. Wake your ass up. That's up 10.3% on the day. 112 again. We were at 112 a while ago. So, let's see if we can uh hold that momentum and keep going.
Palanteer 156. Not too bad. Palanteer's also getting some momentum. 15567. That's up about 1.7%. Robin Hood right here 11150. Tesla 356. They released the robo taxi app. The robo taxi app is now number seven in the entire app store in the United States. It was ahead of Uber on Saturday. So that app looks like it is getting downloaded even if people can't use it yet and is beginning to scale.
Nvidia 16821. S&P 648. That's green. AMD 151. Hoodie still 111.5. Grabby Grabb 518. Quick update on Grab. the uh founders of Goto, one of their largest competitors Indonesia, were arrested based on the controversy of them taking the money from the Ministry of Education for the Google Chromebooks and taking it for themselves instead of giving it to poor children.
Bullish for Grab because at the end of the day, that means Goto's market share hopefully starts to dissipate. Grab takes over that market and that's when we see really strong earnings growth in Indonesia. So, from that perspective, I think that's why Grab is getting a little bit of a bid right there.
Google 235 that's green at 246 Amazon 234 CRM at 250 that's flat Meta at 760 Robin Hooded back to 110 pound here 156 where is Apploven they also got into the S&P they're at 537 that is up 10% on the day as is that one getting hit recovering recovering all right so people are stepping in it was down 15 now it's down seven so if you bought the dip when it was down 15 you're already up 7% and looks like if that one can recover another 7% then that one's going to be flat on the day Rocklab was down 3% Stock Lab is now green.
That's up 1%. Where is Octo? This is the new Dan Ives, Tom Lee company. 1,500%. 1,500%. That is green. Let me know if anyone in the chat bought this in the pre-markets. Where is Openoro, by the way? Open door at 715. So, Open Door running as well, up 7.5%. So, you got Openoor making a move. You have SoFi making a little bit of a move.
Google right here, new all-time highs on the Googles at 23650. Not too bad for Google. And then Octo again for those that don't know this company, this is a Worldcoin treasury company. Worldcoin is the Sam Alman biometric proof of human proof of authentication coin. Some of you guys might remember, you know, Sam Alman has been talking about it for the past couple years now.
Um, uh, Tom Lee invested $20 million. That 20 million is now worth over 200 million based on the 15x that we're seeing in the pre-markets or not or as as the market has opened. and Dan Ies is the chair of the board for ATCO, which is the world's first worldcoin crypto treasury company. Uh market cap, it says, is 68 million, which I don't know if that makes sense because Tom Lee's investment is already worth like more than the market cap.
So, I kind of think the market cap stuff on Weeble and Legend might not be accurate right here. Uh because they're trying to figure out exactly what's going on. Nvidia, by the way, spiking up right here, up about 1% 16850. But it looks like so far the investment is working out. S&P 648, Googs again 23650.
Where is Apple? Apple was at 240 yesterday. Pounder 157. Apple's at 238. That one's down a little bit. And then Hoodie trying to get right back to 112 based on S&P inclusion momentum. World Coin is up 21% on the Octo. This stock uh price is a$127 today. There you go. It's up 40% in the past seven days.
Up 20% today. market cap is 2.5 billion. It is the number 46th largest cryptocurrency in the world and uh that one is now green based on this investment by Tom Lee Hoodie. There she goes. Look, I think I said this last night. I think we deserve to be 120. I really do. I mean the S&P inclusion along with the fundamental catalysts make this easily worth at least 115 in my opinion.
By the way, we were at 118 3 weeks ago and then we kind of had to consolidate into 100. So, I think this is the catalyst to get us there. But, we have CPI this week. If CPI sucks, then, you know, I don't know what's going to happen, right? If CPI is just a crappy CPI, then obviously anything can happen.
So, we got to see how this ends up playing out. Um, but if we have a decent CPI, we got rate cuts along the way, S&P inclusion, we have the active trader event, which I don't know in Vegas if Vlad's going to announce a product that is really so groundbreaking that the market's like, "Damn it, we have to buy more hood." But what if they do?
I mean, I wouldn't put it against them to do that. And if they do, then maybe that adds fuel to this momentum and that could help us continue getting a bid. Hood right there trying to fight for 113. S&P at 648. Nvidia trying to go for 170. Let me check resistance at 113 on Hoodie. BMR, how's that one doing today?
This stock is green. 4295. Um, so you got BMR fighting as well. Pounder 157, 113 resistance, 42,000 shares. 42,000 shares for Hoodie to get to 113. Tempest, this stock is wow up 2%. Nancy and Kathy continue to do great on that investment. Archer is at 864. Archer actually down below nine for the first time in a while.
I haven't seen that below nine, but it is up on the day up about 11%. Dualingo, goodness gracious, this stock, I mean, there's a lot more people that are getting interested about it. Our boy Chris Patel tweeted about it this morning that he's getting a little bit more excited now that it's down 50%.
But obviously it's been a disaster all year and I really don't think AI is going to kill them. But enough people believe that and as a result Dualingo it was just at 470 last week off of a good earnings and now at 268. So this one continues to go down another 1% on the day. Pounce right here at 156.
Octo is that one unhalted. Uh it's down. Okay. So it was up at 22. Now it's at 17. I think it's halted again. So it got halted to the downside which means there might be some continuing pain to the downside. But you do have octo that is down from the highs of the day. Hoodie, did we touch 11? We touched it.
There we go. 113, baby. Let's get this sucker back up to 114. Here's the fun thing about Hood. If it falls back to 100, I think everyone's buying that dip because now, you know, the S&P inclusion is coming up. So, it's like I think there's a floor to this stock and I think it can maintain momentum. There she goes.
Now she's breaking out 11340. Let's see if we can break through 115. I think that's the big one. 114 also potentially on the way. 114 resistance on hoodie is 32,000 shares. 32,000 shares. New bank 1497 that's up 1.5%. Ian had a great earnings. They're down a little bit but still up a lot from last week.
Lyft right here 1743. Walmart that's up a little bit. IWM is down a little bit on the day. Baba had a great earnings. They're up 3.5%. Corre 1.96. Where is Nebus? Nebus right here 6580 that's up half a percent. And then Rocket Lab 4656. ASTS, is that one still down? That one's still down about 7.5%.
Micro Strategy is also down 4%. Don't know why MSTR is down, but Bitcoin is slightly up 112.2. Hims is ripping. Is she ripping? Hims is Yeah, back above 50. There you go. $50.85. That's up 5%. I still have my 700 shares of HIMS. I I want to just buy 300 and make it a thousand shares and just leave it and like that'll be the position.
Not that interested in making it a massive position, but also I haven't sold those 700 shares. So, um yeah, I think eventually I will just buy those 300 and we'll have a thousand shares of him. But there you go. That's up about 5% on the day. And that's what you got. Google alltime highs. Are we at 237?
Yeah, we hit 237. Wow, dude. Dude, Google and Apple and really Google has been making sure this S&P 500 does not collapse because a lot of like Nvidia is not helping the S&P. It's down 10% from its all-time highs and it's 8% of the the waiting. So, you kind of need a company like Google to pick up the slack.
And uh one of the co-founders of YouTube actually over the weekend tweeted out that in the next two years Google will become the most valuable company on the planet, which I mean I don't know who agrees. Is that possible? Will the TPUs make it happen? Will YouTube make it happen? Will Google Gemini, you know, converging from traditional search revenue make it happen?
I don't think it's crazy to say that, but it's pretty incredible to uh to see some of the momentum and the turnaround that is relatively happened in what two months up almost 50% from the lows in two months. It's pretty awesome to see and uh incredible for a lot of the institutional investors that also bought the hell out of Google behind UNH, which by the way, where is UNH?
UNH today that is up a little bit 318 not too bad. Oscar broke out last week. Oscar 1976 not too bad for Oscar. Uh the ACA subsidies were uh I believe extended which is why Oscar is getting some more momentum from the big beautiful bill. And then Lemonade right here that's down about 1.2% on the day.
Grabby Grab a little bit of a breakout as well. Again I think that go-to news is bullish. Um 525 I think fair value for Grab is eight bucks. Hopefully we see that towards the end of the year. But nice to see some of that momentum on grab back into the 520s up from about 470 which is what we had what literally last week it was around that 485 range.
Uh app 11% all-time highs. Market cap on app almost 200 billion 184. These guys are also growing 70 plus percent year-over-year doing billion I think 1.2 billion per quarter in revenue. Um, if you asked me exactly what does AppLoving do, I couldn't really tell you. I know it's an advertising technology, but they're growing like crazy.
And this was, you know, one of the largest companies that probably deserve to be in the S&P that wasn't in the S&P. And now they're in along with Hoodie. Hoodie back below 113 11260 on the day for Hood. Not too bad. Not too bad. AAB, that's also moving on the day. ALAB right here. Astera, that's green.
Wow. Nine. Why is Astera moving like this? Is AET moving? AET usually moves with it. Arista not moving like ALAB. There's got to be a headline on this one to get it to be move. Oh, where is Broadcom? Uh, which this one? Okay, back to 350. That's up 5%. So, City Bank reduced their Nvidia price target.
I thought it was quite silly. They went from 210 to 200 and they were like, "Hey, if Broadcom sells more chips, then Nvidia is not going to sell as many GPUs. Therefore, we're lowering our price target." This was their exact same logic back in April when they lowered their price target to like 150 and then they had to raise it up to 210.
Now they're lowering it back down to 200. So I think you're getting a lot of the analysts that just think because Broadcom gets one customer uh that's buying a lot of custom AS6 and that means Nvidia is losing all of its customers which I you know that doesn't like what would you downgrade Broadcom if Nvidia continues to get more momentum?
No. Because like these are two separate ways of thinking of A6 versus GPUs. Not saying there can't be a threat to Nvidia if like this really becomes exponential for Broadcom but I think it's a bit early to be like oh Nvidia's dead now or we have to lower all of our estimates because open AI needs custom AS6 which Nvidia is not really even in the business of creating uh given their more you know mass market with these GPUs.
So I think Nvidia is a buy the dip. I think Nvidia's 200 by the end of the year. I think it continues to get momentum. I think a lot of people are freaking out for no reason. Now we got to get the China export controls in favor of Nvidia to really see and make that move back above alltime highs. And I don't know if that happens by the end of the year, but if it does, I don't think Nvidia is in the worst situation.
However, it's not bad to see Broadcom and and and the markets kind of diversify into some of these other semiconductors and have uh Nvidia not be the only reason why the S&P is moving. So, Broadcom right here now the market cap is 1.64 trillion. And that one is up almost $50 from the lows or not from the lows which was 297 was the alltime high like last week and now it's 350 based on uh this momentum.
So, is that one getting some green? SoFi right here. 2528. So is red. Don't know why SoFi is red, but it is red. Octo unhalted. Okay, let's see. Okay, unhalted to the downside. As you can see, it went from 23 to 16. It's up a,000% on the day. It was $2. Now it's 16. Would not surprise me if it goes back down to like $5.
would also not surprise me if it kind of tries to settle in this range given uh they did, you know, raise 250 million in the private that that's another reason the market cap doesn't make any sense. They raised 250 million via a private placement. Bit mine was 20 million of that 250 million. So this market cap you're seeing on like Legend or Weeble at 51 million doesn't make any sense.
It's probably just not updated yet. Um but we're going to see if it kind of materializes around this range for the market cap. Octo is a new world coin treasure company by Tom Lee and Dan Ies and Sam Alman. All three of them coming together for this one. I know that sounds so toppy but I just but like it's building on Ethereum which is kind of the logic behind it and that's why it's up a thousand% right here.
Tesla 353 pounder 156 SoFi I don't know why SoFi's down. Everything's green. So's red. Maybe there's some news right there but SoFi is down. Hims back above 51 which is nice to see. Baba that's still up 3.5. Where is AMD that is at 151? Let's take a look at some of the semis. Uh all of them are kind of flattish.
SMCI flat. Broadcom's up. ASML is actually up one point. ASML, talk about a recovery from 680 to almost 800. I think was at 850 two months ago. So that one, if you bought the dip on ASML, not too bad. TSM, that's up a little bit. Intel, that's kind of flat ever since the US took an 8% stake. Marll, that one got decimated on earnings, but it's up a little bit today.
1.62%. And then ARM, that one's been kind of flat, also up half a percent. So there you go. Where is BMR? Nvidia, are we back at 170? Are we there? Nvidia back at 170. Not too bad. BMR that is at 4360. Up 3.9%. Again, BMR is very volatile. You know, it went down to like 39 on Friday, but then it was at 46 on Thursday.
Now it's at 43. I mean, this one's going to break out when Ethereum goes up or it's going to break down when Ethereum goes down. And if you believe Ethereum continues to go up, then Robin had by the way back above 113, then that probably adds to the bullcase. By the way, one thing I didn't mention, I talked about this on the future show last night.
Uh, again, this is why I kind of ignore the price of bit of of a Bitmine or Ethereum and I look at what's actually happening in the ecosystem. Fidelity has just launched FDIT, which is a tokenized share of the Fidelity Treasury Digital Fund, aka a Fidelity version of uh tokenized treasuries. It already has 200 million on the product, and it's a real world asset, RWA, and it's using, you guessed it, Ethereum as the blockchain to facilitate the ability to buy tokenized shares of treasuries.
I mean it is absolutely incredible and as a result of that I think if we start seeing that tokenization from Wall Street across the entire world over the next 10 years even if it's only 10 or 20% of the overall asset supply becoming an RWA on Ethereum like I think Ethereum is going to be more valuable and I think the company that owns the most Ethereum like a bit will also be more valuable and as a result I think that's why you know Bitine is not the worst bet right here.
Hoodie trying to go for 114. Can we get it? We are 5 cents away. Can we get it? Let's see. Let's see. Is Grab moving? Oh, Grab. Wow. 530. Okay, cool. Not bad. Not bad at all. Nice to see it making a little bit of a move right here. Um, again, the news I told you guys, Goto Founders got arrested. I think that company either is going to get subsumed by Grab or their market share.
I mean, the brand positioning people in Indonesia hate that the fact that they stole money from kids. So, like you just got a lot of momentum for Grab to be able to take that market. And if they do, we're talking about 30, 40, 50% revenue growth. Right now, they're at 25% revenue growth. I think that number could get to 40% by next year if they take over that market from Gojek and go to the question is just if that happens and even if we don't get that market I still think you know we're upwards of 30% revenue growth next year and I think in a world where rate where rates come down and you're trading at 35% cash the street cannot ignore 35% re revenue growth it's just going to be hard especially if they make an acquisition I mean like there's a lot of different things that could happen that could help grab hoodie 114 baby there you go 11470 okay here Here we go.
115 resistance at 115. 58,000 shares. 58,000 shares. We are got to see. We got to see if they can get there. 13% up on the day. Again, Hoodie is a top 500 company in the United States of America. I don't have the bell, unfortunately. I forgot the bell upstairs, bro. How could I forget the bell? But, uh, it's pretty incredible to see.
Pretty pretty freaking incredible to see. RR is up 7%. That's that robotics company, Richtech Robotics. That one's getting a little bit of a move today. That's up 7.3%. Pounder 156. Tesla 351. And then Nvidia 170. Nvidia up 2% on the day as well. Hoodie 114. Who bought the hood dip on Friday? Put in the chat if you bought the hood.
I bought 50 shares of 97. So not I didn't buy a ton of shares, but you guys know Triple V bought 100,000 shares in 98. Put in the chat if you bought that dip. Um because I mean they were really like you know it was getting like kind of ugly. It was getting it got to 94 at the lows and I honestly I didn't even like I really didn't think about S&P inclusion bro like I really I was just like yeah we might get it we might not.
Like I was kind of numb to it and then when it happened I was like no holy crap. Like I don't think this it's not going to easily go back to 97 again. Like you're going to need a large macro headwind for a lot of these stocks to get sold off. Maybe that's the last time we see hood below 100. I don't know.
like may at least for the next couple months getting into the rate cut cycle and getting into these catalyst we have obviously anything that happens maybe September turns out to be a horrible month but if so maybe S&P creates a little bit of a base case to the or a floor to the stock as well Dan bought 59850 uh a bunch of you guys dejened into some options I saw in the chat on the S&P inclusion stream you guys bought a bunch of calls at like the 97.98 range uh James bought 100 shares at 97 Sammy Lee bought 1095 $5 call.
So, a,000 shares. Incredible. Quantess bought heavy in the 96s. Not too bad. Antonio bought 20. Grant bought 50. Swiper bought some. I bought back some underwater covered calls. Yeah, dude. It's a lot of people got hit on those covered calls as well. My my uncle lost a ton of shares because of those.
My mom lost a bunch of shares as well. But granted, you know, my mom is some of it is trading, some of it's long-term, so she's okay with losing some of those shares. Um, but apparently after hours, dude, like if if the stock hits a target, even if your covered call is above that target, it could get exercised and then boom, you have to give up some of those shares.
So that happened for a bunch of different people uh on Friday. There you go. 115, baby. 1158, broke through 15 55 58,000 shares at 115. Just below 115 right now at 114. So there is some selling pressure right there, but we did break through. So, someone bought 58,000 shares at 115. Uh 116 resistance right now on Hoodie is 21,000 shares.
21,000 shares. Tesla right here at 351. GameStop has earnings tomorrow 2271. Archer at 861. Verizon that's green a little bit. Rocket Lab 4767 that's up 4% on the day. AS is that recovering? That is all but recovered. It's only down 5%. It was down 15%. So, seems like pre-market was definitely an overreaction.
Circle. don't know why Circle's been getting hit as badly as it's been getting hit. I mean, obviously, I don't think the valuation ever made that much sense, but given stable coins are getting a lot of momentum, you would think Circle would be able to hold some of its premium. However, it is still up 4x from the IPO.
It IPOed at 30. It's at 112. You know, grant it was at, you know, 200 a while ago, but still um Circle is getting hit. Maybe some of that money is just going into Ethereum as well. And so, that's some of the rotation that's happening. the circle right there 112 still a great IPO but if you did buy in the high 200s that one is down Google right here wow Google's trying to go for 238 5 cents away and then hoodie back to 115 back to 115 I do not have a bell but I I will ring the YouTube shorts bell for you guys I will sorry guys I forgot the bell but here we go let's ring the YouTube shorts bell for for 115 There we go.
11530. Did we hit? Wow, we did hit 11530. Bro, she's going for it today. She is going for it. Tesla right here, 351. Palenteer also not too bad. Up 3%. Palenteer making its move. Oscar, are you above 20? Oscar is above 20. Congratulations to those who diligently DCA into Oscar. You deserve it. You have to do a lot of DD to understand this thesis in the face of the Affordable Care Act.
Uh and if you did it, it is working out for you. Oscar right there, $202. That's up 4% on the day. Not Not too bad. Okay. So news. I don't see any SoFi news. Let me do a real quick glance at it. Uh I don't know why it's red. Uh the Josh Allen partnership was last week. No, I think it's just I don't know.
I don't know. SoFi, I have no idea. If anyone has a headline, let me know. I don't see anything. Google right here, 237.86. Wow. Hoodie 11545. All right. 116. That's on deck. That is on deck. Google's trying to go for 240 right here. Well, first it's trying to go for 239. Hit 238. 23780. Google's market cap now 2.88 trillion.
Not that far from joining the three trillion. uh club and in that club are Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. And it's hard to imagine Google, which makes more net income than all three of those companies. It doesn't deserve to be in the $3 trillion, especially when this thing was at like what 2.2 trillion 7 months ago.
Nvidia right here, 170. Nvidia also getting some green. That's up two. And then pounder trying to get back to 160. That's at 157. Grab holding on to 528. Amazon 234. Reddit, great day. That's up 1%. Salesforce continues to be just not that exciting I guess to Wall Street even after their earnings. PayPal right here 68, SMCI 40, and then Apple at 240 right now.
Falling Knife, thank you for the $200 super chat. Again, you've been very kind over the past couple days with these super chats. Deeply appreciated. Thank you for the super chat. Falling Knife, I I showed you guys his screenshot on Twitter. He bought like what did he buy? He bought like uh like 7,000 shares of Hood or something at like 101 uh last week.
So, he is definitely uh enjoying some of that Hood momentum. Congrats on S&P, bro. And thank you for the $200 super chat. Robin Hood right here 11525. We got to see if it can break through to 116. Nvidia 170 and then Tesla right here 352. Let me Let's see if there's any other news in the macro breaking.
I don't think we get macro data. We get CPI on Thursday and PPI on Wednesday. I don't know why PPI is coming out before CPI. Usually, it's done the opposite, but uh we will see it on Thursday. Gold price is up 1.36%. So, gold another all-time high as equities continue to do well. Where is Open Door?
Is that one above 750? That's at 720. All right. So, Open Door high of days that is also up 8% on the day. Oto, where does that one go? It is 20 bucks, 1400%. Continuing to trade basically I think high of days was 22. Now it's at 20.8. So Tom Lee's up um 150 million or something on that investment within the 20 million that he put in which is not too bad.
That is not too bad. Lulu bad earnings last week unfortunately. Wow. It continues to fall down 2.5%. It was at 165. Now it's down 2.4 for again this thing I mean is it a candidate to get kicked out of the S&P they got in about a year and a half ago year to date 56% again tariff guidance wasn't wasn't the best dimminimous regulations not that good for their shipping fees and uh at the end of the day it's expensive and they don't have the products that I think based on the earnings that I'm seeing are good enough to to to to command the premium of charging $200 for a sports coat that people just aren't willing to Okay.
So, now granted it's down 55%. I mean, what is this thing going to like $80, right? Like, at some point there there's got to be some level of uh market valuation on this. That makes sense. It's $20 billion market cap. I really haven't gone through the numbers, so I can't say if 20 billion is expensive or not, but down 55% seems like a better deal than paying 40 billion for Lululemon, which it was trading at earlier in the year.
And so, we just got to see how that one ends up playing out. Lulu right there down about 2% on the day. S&P still green 648 and then hoodie got to 11565. She's trying to go for 116. We got to see if she can if she can get there. Uh informed viewer, thank you for the $100 super chat. Admit I'm an experienced trader and strongest support.
The semi-strong market hypothesis. Your insights and the insights for the rest of the community have helped me to squeeze dollars in the market. Thanks. Thank you for being here. Thank you for the super chat. Means a ton. Uh I do think that there is a strong argument for the convergence of rate cuts, the labor market being weak but not that weak, corporate earnings and then inflation being subdued along with crypto continuing to uh usher in a new era of how we think about finance and and financial tokenization and stable coins.
That will lead to ultimately treasuries coming down, interest rates coming or or yields coming down on bonds, treasuries going up, and then the overall value of risk assets taking more of a a a stronger uh paradigmatic shift inside of an economy that recognizes that cash is just not going to be as valuable going into the next couple years.
And as a result, I think that's your bull market. Now, there is a bunch of holes you can point to that thesis, but the convergence of all those elements to me supports a bull market. And the biggest like like 80% of everything I just said is corporate earnings. That to me, if that does not go away, you're just not selling Nvidia until they have a crappy earnings.
You're not selling Hood until they have a crappy earnings, CPI, PPI, whatever macro term you want to look to, it's really hard to ignore 40% revenue growth, 50% EPS growth based on the macro. Unless the macro starts affecting that earnings growth, but until it affects the earnings growth, it's kind of like, does it even matter?
Like if the macro doesn't affect how companies are performing, do the tariffs matter? If the tariffs are not affecting earnings, they matter for Lulu because Lulu is saying that tariffs, you know, are hurting their business. But if every other retailer in clothes are able to put up their numbers because the tariffs aren't really affecting them, then maybe there's more to the Lulu story than just tariffs and as a result, you sell Lulu and you buy something else, which is kind of how I think this this story ends up playing out.
All right, hoodie getting sold at 11560. So 11560 had some resistance right there. We got to 1577. Now back to 114. Tesla right there 353. Pounder 157. So Sofi 20 SoFi continues to fall. Not sure why. Grab holding on to 530. And then the S&P still at 648 on the day. Banking is not coming out this week for Hood.
That's probably uh that's probably uh end of September, early October. But maybe they'll tease a little bit of the announcement back in the in in the Vegas event for active traders. But I don't think they're going to talk too much about banking. And if they do, maybe that's something the street can can get excited about.
Uh Bit Mine right there, 4270. That one's also down. All right, so we're getting some red candles across the board. Nothing too crazy, but a little bit of red. Meta, by the way, 763. So I showed the video last week and I and I showed the video last night as well about Zuck saying they're going to spend $600 billion of um money in terms of data centers.
Let me just play that video again because he did update his thoughts over the weekend and what he said was quite bullish for the AI data center trade. Wait, was that muted? Was that muted? Damn it. Why am I acting like an amateur this morning? Goodness. All right. I'm sorry. They should be back now.
Should be back for hosting this. I mean, this is quite a group to get together. And you know, I think um you know, all of the companies here are building just making huge investments in in the country in order to build out data centers and infrastructure to uh power the next wave of innovation. So, it's um you know, we don't often get together as a as uh the the the CEOs of the different companies, but it's it's uh good to see everyone.
How much are you spending uh would you say over the next few years? Oh gosh. Um I mean I think it's probably going to be something like I don't know at least $600 billion through 28 in the US. So that's crazy. Right now Zuck clarified on threads over the weekend. He said, "If AI keeps accelerating, it's quite possible we'll invest even more than 600 billion." And the reason he had to clarify is because he was caught on the hot mic saying, "Hey, Trump, what number did you want me to say?" It's kind of a nothing burger because ultimately they were kind of briefing on like what they would say to the public.
And he went with the lower number. Trump wanted him to say the higher number, but Zucks was like, "Hey, you know, I don't know if we're going to invest that much more, but I want to be more conservative here." But Zucks is clarifying that the reason I had to ask him which number I was going to say is because we technically might invest more than 600 billion by the end of 2030.
This is only until 2028. So it's not even until 2030. By the way, Octo, that one is making an even bigger move. My goodness. $1,800% on the day. That is green. $26.90. It hit $29.70. So, the point of the Zux clip right there is that Jensen said they're gonna there's going to be three to four trillion dollars of capex uh by the hyperscalers by the end of 2030.
Zucks is saying we're going to do as meta 600 billion by the end of 2028, if not more than 600 billion by the end of 2030. And if Google, Microsoft, all these other guys pitch in to that same extent, I mean, I don't think Jensen's crazy to say there's going to be $4 trillion of capex. Nvidia is not going to get all that money, but they're going to get a decent chunk of it.
And as a result, uh, the Nvidia thesis to me is is very much intact. And so I think Zux is only confirming what a lot of us thought was going to happen. Octo right here has not got stalled yet or halted 31.85. It is now up 2,000%. Tom Lee's 20 million is now worth 400 million, which means Bit theoretically, I mean, that that that's $380 million.
That's technically not on the balance sheet, quote unquote, but like it's it's it's well, it's kind of on the balance sheet on paper on that investment. Now, we got to see if Octo can actually hold this 2,000% gain. But, um, yeah, that 20 million just turned into 400 million for Bit. I mean that is not bad for BMR.
That is not bad. By the way, Hoodie back to 115. So Hoodie trying to make another attempt at 116 right here. Again, who bought Octo? Put in the chat if you actually bought if you bought this thing. I don't know what the actual market cap is because I don't think any of the brokerages have it updated.
But the only reason I think it could hold a 2,000% gain is because what if the market cap is now like I don't know 500 700 million and they just raised like 300 million. So, they're only trading at a little bit above the cash on on on their hand. Uh, minus all the other financials or in addition to all the other financials they have, which I I I don't know any other financials about the company, maybe they have like another hundred million that they've had for the past couple years already.
Like, theoretically, it could be trading at cash, which might be worth $30 or at least $20, right? And that could still be a pretty strong amount for Octo bought 100 shares at five. Uh, Ketamine bought 30 shares at 17. Manohar got 5,000 shares bought at 10, sold at 14. Admit the market cap is billions, you need to calculate with 188 million shares from the pipe unlock.
Okay, so if the market cap is in billions and they only have hundreds of millions of cash on the balance sheet, then they're definitely trading at a hell of a premium and the question is, will they be able to keep their premium? Now remember, this is exactly what happened to Bit Mine when they went public.
Bit mine went to 160 the day they went public from $4. It's kind of crazy when that happened. That's right here. It was at what June 24th. Yeah. From 450 to it got to a high of 160 and then it came all the way down to 30 for to to 28 and now it's at 42. I could really see that easily happening with Octo.
Uh but maybe there's more momentum in this and maybe there's a different MNAB that they're calculating and as a result, you know, the Octo potentially can hold a premium higher than BMR. So, we're going to see, but right now it's pure momentum that's driving it. 3151 high of days that is now up 2100%.
As that one continues to go green is HIMS going down. Robin trying to get back to 116. HIMS 49.89 down from 52. S&P 648. Nvidia down from 170. And then hoodie trying to make an attempt once again at 116 on the day. Pounder at 157. Pipe shares aren't registered until at least September 11th. So you have a few days of lowflat madness.
Yeah, that's probably explains the the the the movement today. It's a lot of I mean it's a low float. There's a ton of madness in that low float. Everyone's fighting for the same shares. And so until the unlock, it's a game of musical shares. But one that once that unlock happens, just like with BMR, once that unlock happened, I mean, I think this thing probably dumps.
It just like historically based on what happened with BMR, it looks like that it would dump. question is how how high are people going to bid it up today before it ends up dumping. And if it does dump, does is you know is the floor 20, which is still up a lot from $2 this morning. 3250. Wow. 34 oto hits up 2,150%.
Grab right there at 524. Google trying to get back to 238. That is now at 237. Mortgage rates are down. They are down pretty nicely. They're at 6.29%, the lowest mortgage rate we have had in uh basically a year. By the way, the 10-year, look at that bad boy. 4.049. We have not seen that since April.
We have not seen that since April. So if that tenure comes down below three or comes down below four, we'll have mortgage rates hopefully get very close to low sixes, high fives and that could be very bullish for the overall housing market. Uh open stock that is 7-Eleven that's up 7%. Zillow that is up 3%.
So, you see some of the real estate proxy names catching a bid off that uh that 30-year mortgage starting to come down to the lowest level that we've seen in a in a long time. So, there you go. Zillow right there up about 3% on the day. Mortgage rates need to go down to 3%. Okay. So, 3% would absolutely unlock the housing market and stimulate it to a very strong extent.
But I think and and and you know uh let me know in the chat if you're one of these people. There's a lot of people with a lot of money on the sidelines that have been waiting to buy a house. They they're just waiting for rates to come down. And so, you know, rates were at what 7.9% in January. If that comes down to 5.9 or 6.0, I don't know.
I think you're getting a lot of people that say, "All right, you know, I don't want to wait until it gets to 4%. I don't know if it'll ever get to 4% or at least, you know, in the next five years if that'll happen and I'm going to be ready to pounce." So, does that unlock the entire market? No. But does that unlock some of the market?
Yeah. And theoretically, that should be good for Open Door. Now, again, it's it doesn't change their margins. It it it allows the volume of homes they sell to go up. I I don't know how that structurally changes the margin on those homes, but uh it does mean there's more volume. I think it's really bullish for Zillow because obviously more volume means more advertising revenue, more commission fees on Zillow's network.
But, um I think a lot more people at least will be excited to think about owning a home. Octo 38. My goodness, it is becoming madness, folks. That is madness. 2500% on the day. Uh 38. Now it's halted. Now it's halted. 3849 officially halted. Octo is a world coin treasury. Oh no, we're back. We're back.
We're back. We're back. We're back. We got halted with uh with Octo right there. I got halted. I think we should be back. We should be back. We should be back. Yes, AK Media got halted. We resumed trading on AK Media. I don't know uh why that just happened. That was kind of weird. Internet should be okay right now.
Yo, at at the exact moment I got halted, I heard a police siren as well. I'm like, what is going on, bro? Like the stream froze. I heard a like massive police siren. But we should be okay. Should be okay. This is what happens when I miss the bell, bro. This what happens when I miss the bell. Uh, so yes, I got halted along with with 8CO 3849.
They're up 2500%. And uh, now we're back, but we got to wait until that gets unhalted. So there you go. Uh, go back to your parents for the consistent Wi-Fi. I I did see my parents yesterday, so I got treated like a king, bro. You You know, you're not home for a week. You come home on Sunday, you get all this food, and you just get treated like you're royalty.
It was great, to be honest. My goodness, dude. Need to take a week break, two weeks break. Every time I I uh I come home, I get treated like a freaking king. But there you go. All right, so 8 still halted. Uh poundry right there 157. And then hoodie 11590, not breaking over 116 yet, but at 115. 8O is just madness right now.
Here's the question to everybody. Do you think this dumps or do you think this just keeps going? I mean, what do you think? Do you think we're going higher than basically $40 on the day? Up more than 2500%. Which I think was more than Bit, right? Bitcoin. Bit mine I don't think went up this high. This is pretty incredible.
Or does this dump? Do we get halted again? 500%. Okay. Okay. It's It's being weird with the randomly randomly getting halted or like the stream getting randomly halted. No, it should be good now. Okay, it should be good. Hopefully, it's not bad. Um I can tell you they don't have a business plan. I mean, yeah, this is not a business.
This is a crypto treasury. So, that is their plan, but I don't know. I did not buy it. No, I am not in this thing. I am not in this breaking six. I know a lot of people think about this one. Drone platform on there you go. That's up 10% of the day. Not too bad for that one as well. A lot of you guys are saying dump.
Let's do a poll right here in the chat. Do you think dump or pump on this one? I don't know, bro. This one. Do I think it has to dump? No. I think when Oh, Trump's live right now. Okay. Trump's I don't think he's talking about the macro. He's talking. He's at some museum right now. But I think uh I think by the way, 62% of you said a 25 basis point cut over 50.
I think when they unlock the pipe, obviously it can, you know, dump pretty badly. All right, Octo pumping today or dump? What do you guys think? What do we think? Pouncer right here. 156 and then hoodie 115. Also, yeah, I mean, dilution, bro. Like, don't they have to keep diluting to buy more Worldcoin?
They're a treasury, right? So they have to keep buying more worldcoin. So theoretically they would have to keep diluting to buy more which uh you know makes sense. So eventually they're going to have to hit the ATM as well which to me just means that that with the unlock of the pipe probably means this one probably Oh goodness gracious.
41 42 it got to 48. This is back at 45. Oh this is madness right here. This is madness now. See, if I buy five shares right now, it's about to dump. So, I'm not touching this thing because I want the party to keep going. Yeah. Doug says, "As soon as I get in, I'm going to f You and me, Doug. We both FOMO in, this thing's going to dump, but it's not stopping." Now, remember, okay, what I'm about to say is going to give people a lot of FOMO.
So, just to try to take it with a grain of salt. Bit mine went from 4 to 40 and everyone said, "All right, 10x, it's done." and then it went from 40 to 160. I'm not saying that's going to happen here. I'm just saying when this thing takes a life of its own, as I'm saying that it crosses 50, it takes a life of its own and it ends up, you know, dumping pretty dramatically, which is what happened to Bitmine.
But in the meantime, when you're playing musical chairs, if you end up getting a chair before someone else, like obviously it could go a lot higher. 5417, 3,000% on the day. It's pretty incredible. Again, I'm not buying this, but it is pretty uh pretty exciting to see how this is all playing out. 5678.
It's just not stopping. It is just not stopping. Pounder right here 156, hoodie 114, Nvidia 170, S&P 648, Intel 2438, SoFi 2561. SoFi goes green. It was red the whole day. It's green. Grab holding on to 520. Amazon 233 Open Door 695 that's down below 7 bucks. S&P 648. Nvidia just below 170. Pounder again 156.
Octo 47. Okay. So down from 57 to 47 in an instant. It could go right back up to 57. But volume on this thing today. Volume on Hood by the way is 40 million. Volume on Octo is 132 million. 132 million on this one. It's kind of wild. It's a $10.5 billion market cap at 56. Really, Matias? Is that correct?
Did you do the numbers on that? At 56, it's worth 10.5 billion. Really? And I think they own like 200 million of Worldcoin, I think, if I'm not wrong. Oh, guys, that's that's not that's that I like I think that's gonna dump pretty badly, dude. 10.5 billion and they own 200 million of their treasury.
That was basically like Bitmine when when when when he raised 250 for Ethereum and the market gap got to 160, which I don't know what that was in in terms of overall dollars, but it had to be in the like close to 810 billion range. Obviously, that corrected. I mean, I don't see how this doesn't correct if that happens.
Got halted again. 3928 halted to the downside. Yes, I I agree. It's bullish for Bitmine 100%. I just don't know if Octo can hold a$10 billion valuation on owning a couple hundred million of Worldcoin. And Worldcoin, you can't stake it unless I'm wrong. There's no real utility outside of the whole biometric stuff.
I think they make money in another way, but it's not like you get some like native yield like Ethereum. So, um, market cap is 100, dude. Market cap cannot be 150 million. That makes no sense because Tom Lee put in 20 million. The thing is up 20 2,000%. Which means Tom Lee's stake itself is 400 million.
There's no way in hell the market cap can be 150 million. That doesn't make any sense. So, I don't think the brokerages have updated the market caps. Now granted, the shares are definitely uh lower than the the 188 million shares that'll be unlocked via the pipe, but and maybe that's why the market cap is not adjusted the way it should be adjusted.
That's probably is the reason. But still, yeah, with 2.5 million shares, that's why the market cap looks like what it looks like and that's probably why it's creating this type of faux momentum as well. Uh Manohar, thank you for the $100 super chat admit. Love your market open and close. Happy with Octo today and very bullish on BMR this year.
Uh, look, if you're making money with Octo, you're making money with it. Personally, if I was up 2,000%, I'm selling it. But if you believe in whatever you believe in and this thing is going higher, then you know, you continue to hold. But when you have a maniac day like this, not many stocks go up 2,600% in a day.
If you got in anywhere below that, I feel like taking profits is not a crazy idea. But then again, maybe maybe I don't know enough about Worldcoin, bro. There might be something else to the story. But it is bullish for Bitmine, which is I think the most important thing for a lot of people that own own Bitmine.
Um 133 million shares traded at 1015. Yeah, that's kind of crazy. I don't know the exact percentage that Bitmine owns of OTO. We got to do the calculations, but I know the number is 20 million. That's now worth like 450 million. So whatever percentage that is of the market cap would be their ownership stake.
Bitcoin right here 112 Palinger 156 hoodie again 115 she's going to really try for 116 let me check resistance again it got to 1577 and then just wasn't able to break through 116 resistance on Hood is 25,000 shares 25,000 then you got Nvidia at 169 where is Oscar that one broke above 20 still above 20 uh HIMS is just at 40 or him is at 511 Tesla again 355 five, Amazon at 234.
Dude, Microsoft fell below 500 on Friday. I didn't even see this, but it did. It's still below 500. So, that entire earnings bump that it had all the way up to freaking freaking um what 550 is gone, which is quite incredible because Microsoft had one of the most impressive earnings. But it looks like the street just kind of rotated that money into like Google instead.
And Google's valuation is a lot more tame compared to Microsoft's. But yeah, that pump did disappear and we're going to see if that can come back going into Q3. 498 on Microsoft. Nphase kicked out of the S&P. They are gone. Caesars also kicked out of the S&P. So Caesars and Nphase made room for Hoodie and Applo.
And by the way, are we do are we doing an S&P 500 party in Vegas or something? I mean, technically Robin is having a reception after their event, which I guess is the party, but um but yeah, that uh that I guess will be our S&P 500 party. Robin right there. 11485. Uh Gupri says, "I just sold all. I bought 2,000 shares at 555." Dude, not bad.
So what? Even if you sold them at 38, that's 76 grand off of a $10,000 investment. Not too bad. Surj, thanks for the super chat. Made money on Octo. Thanks to you, LMO 15 minute hold. I mean, it looks like a decent amount of you made a lot of money in the past 20 minutes on this thing. Still halted.
3928 up 2,700%. And that one continues to be halted, but it is green. Dude, we got some dgens in here. I would look when I saw the news about Dan Ives this morning it I was thinking of buying it I didn't end up buying it but literally I was like wait a second this looks exactly like what happened with Bitmine I don't know if it's going to have the same utility as a bit mine but like it looks pretty much the same company raises a treasury endorsed by Tom Lee and in this case you got Dan Ives on board as well it's like that looks like it'll pump and boy did it pump now unhalted back to 43 there you go but I just I just didn't invest Um, so not really tanking right here.
It got halted, but now it continues to try to get back up to 43. You're not seeing that much selling pressure. I You can't buy puts on it, right? Yeah, you can't short it. You can't buy puts on it. Uh, but it is obviously still up about 2,000%. UNH's red. Nphase is still red. AS rebounding from the lows.
Looks like the AS pre-market stuff was kind of a nothing burger. And BMNR 4248, that's up about 1%. Pound here 156. Google 236 on the day. Okay, cool. So, we'll keep an eye on what's going on with Octo. 55% of you says say it's going to dump today versus pump. 45% thinks it will continue to pump. NASDAQ, by the way, doing okay.
The Q's holding on probably because of Google and Nvidia making a little bit of rebound today. 579 on the Q's. Apple's iPhone 17 event, by the way, is tomorrow. So, we're going to see what happens there. Let's get a little bit of an update and some coverage on that. But, uh, at the same time where Robin Hood's introducing their active trader product, Apple will be introducing the iPhone 17.
Yeah, I think so. I think that the tariffs are largely behind us. I hope. I mean, you never know. Uh there's always a saga, but we think that it's it's we we're really bullish on Apple right now. The stocks underperform. We think it's going to catch up. We set our target of 260 is very conservative.
And what we like about the products we're going to hear tomorrow is there may be higher priced. And then finally, a new model that people can get excited about. And we think that that will replace the plus model, which then kind of mixes people up. So I think everybody's looking for iPhone growth. So, if you get higher ASPs and we get some unit growth and the production data is not looking so bad, then the stock can work.
So, hopefully it's back to normal and uh back to good things. And not only that, David, I think there's new products next year with a foldable and then an iPhone 20. So, we could have three to five years of new iPhones. How much is a foldable going to cost? I think it's like 120% price increase. And I think you're going to buy one, Sarah.
Why? Why do I need a foldable phone? You'll pay over time. You'll be able to fold it and watch TV. It'll be great. When's the last time people got excited? This is an actual analyst making this argument about foldable phones. I don't get it, bro. I really don't get it. I would love to hear the counter argument.
I know Samsung has their foldable phones, but like I don't think they're selling like hot cakes. And I don't know if Apple's going to be able to make foldable phones be a thing. We're going to find out, but I don't know, dude. I don't see the massive bow case on this. Octo still at 42. Still up 2,800% on the day.
Got to about 47 now at 42. Again, highs of the day were 57, but that one's still up about 2,000% on the day. About a new new products from Apple. I mean, I can remember us gushing around the Vision Pro for a period of time, but that didn't really do much. Yeah. Yeah. Um I know I just saw Jim in the hall and uh about the Vision Pro.
But uh you know, in all seriousness, uh I think that iPhone is not replaceable. They're not losing share. It is not We haven't replaced it yet. It's not a pendant. it's not something else. And they have a really good pipeline of product coming on the iPhone. The other thing too is they will have like probably a home hub if they can fix Siri.
There's also cameras and AirPods coming which may be a little bit cooler than wearing glasses and uh then having uh you know an AI device that has cameras on your ears instead of your eyes might actually work. So that's coming within a few years. So give it a shot. Johnny Johnny Ives working on something for app open AI though.
You never know, right? You never know. You never know. You think the narrative uh has flipped to where it's now Cook is actually his his measured enthusiasm on AI is now going to be the smart move. Yeah, I think so. I think that the Apple's a toll road to AI glory for either Apple or someone else and they're going to get paid for it.
I think that digital real estate, as long as it's valuable, they're going to get paid for it. So, I think that people overreacted a bit to that and I think that uh at the end of the day they're going to monetize their screen and I think the judge's ruling uh that we saw recently and we wrote about it was a step in the right direction for people refocusing on hey wait that real estate's worth something if they're not losing share let's level set here are we making a big deal about Siri when it's really nothing and and uh you know so they're a little late move on people right
the other big story of course is uh is Nvidia and Broadcom last week and this notion that the AI trade is incrementally getting less homogeneous. Yeah. Is that true? Well, uh, Broadcom should be in the MAG 8. We should be calling it Mag 8. We should be talking about this company going to multiple trillions.
Hawkan has done a great job. He's also got a great number two and this guy named Charlie Kawas who's just sensational and uh doesn't get enough credit as well. And this company is firing on all cylinders. the way they engage with people for custom silicon is very special. Um we see revenues in hundred multiple hundreds of billions for Broadcom by the end of the decade 4 or 500 billion and uh the stock could be very much higher.
Our target's 415 and that could even be conservative. I think that probably is conservative. I mean, Octo by the way at 40. If if if Broadcom continues to capture some of the market share that they've been capturing in the overall ASIC landscape with OpenAI committing to 10 billion of custom chips. I mean, yeah, Nvidia is going to do well, but Broadcom's going to do well as well.
It's hard to imagine them kind of diverging from each other. I mean, Broadcom has been basically following Nvidia, not to the same extent, but uh as Nvidia has gone up, Broadcom has increased their AI order growth by I think 80% year-over-year. So Nvidia is not growing at 80% anymore, but still absolutely incredible for both of them.
Nvidia right here 169. Hoodie at 11587. Oh boy, I didn't even see us trying to make a run at 116. Let's see. We got 12 cents. Maybe there's a chance right here. Grab at 527 video 169, Tesla 351, pounder 157. This is the third attempt of the day for going for 116. Uh ABTC, this is Trump's kids uh American Bitcoin treasury company that is up 13% on the day.
ABTC uh Trump's son's crypto Bitcoin treasury company. It is up 13.7% on the day. Robin Hood, she's trying. She got to 11594. She is trying. She is trying. Uh, Matias says, "At 42, Octo is trading at an MNAB of 39, aka 39 times its net asset value with a 82 billion market cap." Okay, that's a bit aggressive.
I don't know if it's worth 39 times its net asset value. Uh, but nonetheless, the market doesn't care and people are buying it up today on those 2.5 million shares outstanding. All right, hoodie. Here we go. We are five cents away. Let's break through. Let's break 116. There you go, folks. There you go.
116 on the hood. S&P 500 inclusion is now a thing. Robin Hood 116. Let's check for 117 resistance and see if we can break that. 117 is at 38,000 shares. 38,000 shares for 117. We got to see if we can get there, but not too bad. Again, we we we were at 116 like a month ago. So, this not new all-time highs, but it's nice to see a 14% move on a name that uh I think has a lot of fundamental catalyst, but obviously also the S&P kind of propelling the amount of buyers that are coming into the name.
So, there you go. There you go. 116 on hoodie. Pounder 157. Appvening is that one still up 11%. App is up 10.25%. 540. Circle is green 115. And then SMCI right here down a little bit on the day. Apple at 239. Let's get back to a little bit more coverage on Broadcom. They are the choice for custom silicon.
Yeah. I mean at 1.6 plus trillion dollar value. So you're right when you say that soon to approach potentially if it continues Meta's market market value. So right up there and you you're uh you know they have typically grown through acquisition as well as organically. I mean Octane has been very aggressive.
Is there another deal to be done for this company particularly given the strong performance of its stock that it could conceivably use as currency? Well, they're still you they're still growing a lot in VMware. They've moved everybody to a higher price subscription and it's sort of waterfalling into the model and normalizing maybe in a year or two.
Um, but I think they're really focused on AI right now and I wouldn't think of them as a rollup play as much as I would think of this just exploding AI number with a potential for 100% growth next year and the year after. But um, I do want to say this. I still think you can own Nvidia because I think TAM's really huge.
I was going to ask if it comes at the expense of Nvidia as the market's telling you a little I think that whenever you see something like this, this was this Broadcom call was so bullish like like I had to like really brace myself on my chair and I was like, "Oh my god, is he saying this? Is he saying that?" And then, you know, and I think that the the the numbers got so big that the natural reaction is to freak out about Nvidia.
But I think that Jensen and Hawk together see something and Jensen is the undisputed leader. He just raised his TAM to at least two trillion for compute networking by the end of the decade and three to four trillion in terms of overall data center capex and he's seeing something that the street isn't even seeing.
And then Hawk numbers are so big that he's seeing something. So I know there's some talk and Zuck said 600 billion is conservative by the end of 2028 in terms of capex which some of that money probably will go to Broadcom, Nvidia, AMD. It just doesn't feel like the people screaming capex as a bubble are listening to these CEOs seeing the actual like projections that the the hyperscalers are putting out there.
And ultimately, we got to see how it plays out. But it's hard to say all 10 of them, the most important companies are lying about the amount of money that they're about to spend on capex about AI slowing up. I I don't think that's happening, guys. I I think if anything, we'll have hiccups here and there, but we're still going.
These guys are seeing something so big. In fact, if the market's two trillion by the end of the decade, what's Nvidia's revenue going to be? I mean, they're getting twothirds of that TAM right now. Even if their share goes down to 40%, 30% it's over $600 billion. That's that's a very that's a double from here probably.
So, I think both can win. I think when things settle down, we'll we'll we'll see Nvidia's just fine. the hyper scaleros keep spending. I would tend to agree, dude. I would tend to agree. It's becoming quite obvious that there is a trajectory for all the spend. It's just going to be a question of if the spend ends up happening.
But to say it's a bubble because you just don't believe that the spend is going to happen. I mean, that means you don't believe in AI. Robin Hood right here 1640. And I think there's a lot of evidence to believe in AI. I was talking about this last night on the future show. Anthropic just raised $13 billion at a $183 billion valuation.
They spent 1.5 billion out of the 13 billion. Let me say that again. Anthropic spent 1.5 billion out of the 13 billion they raised and they paid it as a parking ticket to a bunch of authors of books that Anthropic used 5 years ago to train their clawed models because they obviously never took permission to use those books and they didn't want to like you know take the books out of the models from the training.
So they had to end up paying all the content creators the licensing fees that they wanted to the tune of 1.5 billion. The fact that Anthropic said we can take a billion and a half of the money we just raised and pay a parking ticket because we're so confident about how much we're going to grow and how much revenue we're going to generate.
Again, they were doing 1 billion in January. Now they're doing 5 billion in August. It's a 500% increase in 8 months. Like we've just not seen that from startups in the modern era, but that's happening with these AI LLM companies. That is exceptional. And it continues to prove to me it's not a bubble.
It's re it's a serious revolution. that continues to show the ROI and you're needing a lot of capex and data centers, infrastructure, GPUs, AS6, all of that to continue allowing those companies to grow, which is obviously very bullish for the for the MAX 7 S&P 500 right there 649 and then hoodie 11650.
She is trying to break out. Tanner says, "Where are you Tanner? I am in my apartment complex's studio." So Tanner, if you're free for five minutes, we would love to get a fellow hoodie shareholders perspective. So let me know. I can give you a call on WhatsApp and we can uh get some of your thoughts.
Tanner and Roy and I will be live tonight for Tech Bros. And so uh we'll we'll talk all about Hood today on the podcast. But I it just seems like the market's growing, bro. It it does not seem like the market is slowing down. No matter how much these people that want Nvidia to fail keep talking about it online, it's just like it's hard to say.
There's a lot of logic right there. Broadcom right here at 34915 and that is green. Rango says it was it was to not set precedent for future models. Yeah, exactly. And that is why they just agreed to say, "Hey, we're just going to pay whatever we need." Uh 117 guys has about 25,000 shares. 25,000 shares.
I think that's it. Let me make sure. Uh 117 has no I think it's 30. No, 57. All right. So 57,000 shares. So we got to break through 57,000 shares to get up there. Uh I don't think there's any news on DOS, but that one is moving 14% green. If anyone has any news, let me know. That one's been a winner for the past couple weeks now.
Google right here 235. Grab 530. Breaking 530 would be really nice for grab. We hit 531. Getting to the 550s would actually be a little bit more of a real breakout. So, let's see if we can get there. Nvidia 170 and then the S&P 648 on the day again. 652 is at alltime highs. Um, okay. Let's see. Let's see what else we got going on.
Where are the airlines? JetBlue. How's that one doing? Oh, Tanner's calling. There we go. Let me see that. JetBlue, by the way. 514. That one's actually green on the day. Hoodie again. 116 U United. That's a 108. All right, let me let me call him here. Dude, good morning. Good morning. Um, well, S&P 500, what do you think?
It's awesome. I'm I'm so freaking stoked about it. I just, you know, I don't know if it adds too too much. Maybe this adds, you know, whenever they get into institutional clientele, that adds another reputation layer for them. I know that that happened for data dog and trade desk and stuff like this, but um yeah, I think that this is just another piece where if markets are to get bad, we're not going to fall as far.
This this raises the floor, you know. Um so I I think that that's very exciting. People should be very excited for their for their gains, but this is not the end of the story, you know, like the the business continues on. they continue collecting more clients and hopefully just be the toll road for all financial services.
Do you uh do you think this active trader event uh is going to actually have a product that the street sees and is like, "Holy crap, we got to buy more hood." Or do you think it's not going to be a market moving event? You you know what's weird is I feel like every event that we've gone into, we've had an idea of what they are going to release.
Do you have any idea of what they're going to put out? Because like last Hood Summit, we we knew future or futures and index options like like these were all highlighted. Banking, we knew that was going to come. This I don't even know what we're to expect. I've got no clue. Yeah, I agree. I I honestly have no idea because you and I are not really active traders, right?
And so, right, I I use Legend for streaming here and there, but I'm not like actively using it all day. So, I don't know. But I would imagine it's something that could hopefully be revenue accreative towards the the people that trade the most on Robin Hood. The question is just going to be what does that uh what does that look like?
That's fair. Yeah. Yeah. But dude, congratulations. I didn't have much to add because obviously we spoke about it whenever it actually released. But yeah, I don't know. I'm excited. I hope that I get to feel this these same feelings for SoFi and other stocks that I hold. But um two in one day is not too bad.
I got ra I got apploven which is on my stock draft and hood which is on yours less happy about that but um you know happy we're both making money. So you posted yesterday uh fintech website traffic and SoFi had a 34% year-over-year search to 22.4 million in August. That is a new record. Uh I'm assuming you think that means SoFi is going to probably have a really strong Q3.
Everything I'm seeing is pointing to Q3 being by far their strongest quarter. You see it in Google trends. People are searching for personal loans. Not even out outside of SoFi. People are searching for debt consolidation and personal loan products higher than ever, which I'll let the macro people, you know, decide what that means for the economy.
But, you know, for SoFi's personal perspective, I think that's very good. That's their whole business model. And if they can do that through the loan platform, they make all the money without taking on any risk. So that's why the loan platform business is such a thesis changer for SoFi and why they are going to continue to scale it and build it out is because they have all the underwriting capability.
They have the brand. There was recent articles that just came out this quarter that said SoFi is has one of the strongest reputations. I think they got they got ranked fourth out of the strongest uh brand reputations in all of banking in America. Right. So people I think see it as a trustworthy brand, good company, good products and they need their services.
So I I think that they're going to grow and website traffic was a part of that. And you saw it across not just SoFi but other uh lenders and stuff. Upstart and everything saw really high numbers as well. So I I do think that it's going to be another quarter of a lot of originations and I don't know how many quarters that that continues to happen and we stay above $25 and they do not get into the S&P 500.
I do think that they follow suit. Maybe it's 12 months from hood. I think that that would be appropriate, but sometime within the next four quarters. And if that happens, I think that Anthony gets his $45 goal. I think Vlad's going to be a very happy camper with him getting into the S&P 5. I don't know, man.
This is a great time to be a growth investor. Yeah, I agree. Tanner, thank you for your thoughts. I'm putting Tanner's YouTube right here in the chat. We have a lot to talk about tonight on the Tech Bros podcast along with Nvidia. I'm definitely curious what you think about Broadcom and what's going on there with A6 and GPU.
So, we'll talk about that and we'll talk about S&P 500 and all that stuff. I'll try to make it on. I'm Dude, I'm Oh, yeah. You're traveling, aren't you? Right. It's this computer, man. I'm just d I have not uploaded in many days because I've just not had Wi-Fi. I mean, I'm beside myself. Wait, are you like Are you on vacation or something?
No, I'm I'm back home. My power went out and then Why did the power go out? Because of the weather or No, no, like the whole neighborhood went out. Okay. Oh. Oh, sorry. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know if it was weather related or whatever, but um yeah, it wasn't just me. It was the whole neighborhood. And then whenever it came back on, I had no Wi-Fi.
I'm just This has been the worst. I might switch to Apple. Honestly, I've been thinking about it. Like, I just need something to run my freaking day today and it's driving me nuts. So, I'm kind of excited to leave tomorrow and then I'll just I don't know. We could just Well, I I think I think tonight
how to set something up in Vegas. You can literally just call in through your phone and just keep your camera off and it could just be audio for you. So, that that could be one way to Yeah. Yeah. Worst comes to worse, I'll be there. But yeah, it just sucks. Are you excited for Vegas? I'm excited for Vegas.
I'm super excited. I think the uh setup that we have and everything, I'm not going to say anything, but like it's going to be so much fun. Um the people that are going, I'm so happy. I think you already announced that Chris Patel is going, so I've never met him in person. That's going to be super exciting.
And um yeah, you know, I'm I'm excited to see Roy and you again. It's going to be a great time, dude. I'm just so happy they got into the S&P before the event because like the the employees are going to be so so energetic. I think it's going to be a lot of fun. Yeah, everyone there is a bigger shareholder than like or at least as a percentage of their portfolio than many of the people who are attending.
That is correct. You know, so it's very important for them to be up 15% in a day. Yeah, it'll be fun. It'll be it'll be really fun. So, all right, brother. We'll see you there. Oh, by the way, you've got to wake up early with me on Wednesday for the uh for the market open. Uh that means you got to wake up at 5.
Honestly, bro, I think we should just like kind of sleep in the same bed cuz that way I can like wake you up at 5:45. You're never gonna You're never going to beat the Because like if I have to like knock on your door, you're not going to remember you were late to the last one when when you you came like an hour late.
Like I think we should just, you know, for real. For if I'm sleeping for real, do not bug me. Like if you mess with my sleep score. Oh my god. Are you Are you the big spoon or little spoon? I I need to know this. Wait, you're like 5'7 or 5'6. You're a little spoon to everyone. Okay. All right. That was that was a little that was that was that was a little but um
you're trying to put me in awkward situations, bro. You're going to catch some back. What's so awkward about Okay. Anyway, um All right. So, 5:45 a.m. Wednesday, you're committing to wake up for the market open. At what time? 5:45 because the market opens at 8:45 Eastern. Well, that's when I start. Yeah.
Yeah. Um, I can almost guarantee you I'm not going to be there. I told everybody last night I was like, "There's no way. I'm going to ask him, but there's no way he's going to do it." So, there's not a chance. All right, guys. I wanted him to join the show. He won't wake up on time. So, all right, Tanner.
Appreciate you, man. Thanks. I'll see you tonight. Yeah. Bye. People can't wake up early, bro. Tanner needs his sleep. Tanner needs his lovely, lovely sleep. Dude, I hope I wake up because Tuesday night, I don't know how late Tuesday night is going to go. So, I I I I should still be able to wake up, but you know, we just got to make sure Tuesday is not a super late night.
Robin Hood right here, 11625. Got to 1650. Was not able to break out to 117 yet, but she is trying to get there. Here's an update on uh ESTS and some of that news we got with SpaceX today. Echo Star up about 18%. Uh this on news that the company is selling its spectrum that it has a certain spectrum to SpaceX.
The price tag about $17 billion. It's eight and a half billion in cash. Another eight billion in SpaceX stock. Remember SpaceX of course is a private company. Most recently at least valued at around 400 billion on its on its last raise. And they're also going to uh uh fund about $2 billion worth of cash interest payments on Echoar's debt.
That debt not that long ago was a chief concern for shareholders in the company um who wondered about its financial future. No longer. First, you had the deal to sell Spectrum to AT&T for $23 billion. They follow it up a couple of weeks later with this deal. And of course, you're talking over 40. Martin Skrey just tweeted, "Open is an obvious short and anyone long should never ever invest again.
Skrey, open is an obvious short and anyone long should never ever invest again. Uh, I think the open door community is going to find their villain in Skrey if he ends up shorting it as heavy as he did for Quantum. And then it looks like it's going to be Skrey versus the Open Door Bulls. 8 billion in proceeds.
And then there's uh the SpaceX side of it. This is for Starlink. This is not to help Starlink expand its broadband initiatives where it is already a player obviously competing with the likes of Comcast and Charter and others in more rural areas. This is about satellite to sell. So that's what we're talking about sell service.
And the key question here becomes well could Starlink become a true fourth competitor the way we once said that perhaps Echoar or its 400 dish would become a fourth competitor given its huge spectrum position. That didn't happen. Here you do have a constellation of 8,000 satellites only going up from here.
Uh right now Starlink is talking about this simply enabling it to offer sell service around the globe in emer. All right so again echo storere and starlink official acquisition. Here's an update on octo which by the way let's get an update on the stock invidia 170 hoodie just below 116 oto still at 41.
Uh cycles with back who is a great macro analyst. I'm going to link his Twitter right here in the chat. Uh you guys can follow him on Twitter. Look at what he found. Tom Lee bought into Octo. That means that right now on paper, Bitmine has turned their 20 million investment into $600 million. They bought 13.6 million shares at $145 worth $20 million.
Stocks up basically three thou it's 2,700% so a little bit under 600 million. Bit mine on paper just made about $550 million. Now granted, all of this is on paper literally uh and and and if if Octo collapses, then you know that 500 million is going to disappear really quickly. But if it doesn't, like I feel like Bit Mines's MNAV probably has to go higher.
I mean like you added another 600 million to the balance sheet off of like zero cost other than you know the 20 million to inve I mean like and imagine Tom Lee can do this with like 50 different Ethereum companies not all treasuries uh but like other companies that you know probably are not going to go up 3,000% in a day but what if he becomes one of the biggest like quote unquote VCs as a public company for all these other decentralized apps that are building on Ethereum and as a result the staking yield that he gets from all of his Ethereum gets to be deployed into these investments.
And then if these investments even kind of cake are at like 5 to 10% a year, that is a lot of paper profits that Bitine can have on their balance sheet that then they can use to collateralize to buy more Ethereum. Yeah. Then he will use that money to just buy more ETH. I mean, it works, but obviously if collapses when the pipe is unlocked, then you know, his 20 million might be only up 40 million.
But, you know, we got to see how that plays out. But the point is I think there is a broader strategy and again the reason he invested inco is because their technology worldcoin is using ethereum. That is the synergy behind why he even made this investment. And the question is just going to be how this ends up playing out um over the long term as we see a lot of these companies try to use Ethereum's technology and continue to continue to benefit.
So there you go. That one is up 2700%. Tesla right here 350. Pounder 156, AMD 151. And AMD getting a little bit more of uh of a bid. Michael Sailor was on CNBC this morning. Let's see what he had to say. Uh obviously the stock has not really performed that well in comparison to Bitcoin, but here's what Sailor had to say this morning.
dollars in Bitcoin purchases this morning when I before I walked onto this set here. Wait, 217 million this morning. 217 million just slightly less than 2,000 Bitcoin. Our first buy and we were the first public company to buy Bitcoin. We bought 2. That may be all, but in terms of just what you're seeing in terms of flows and whatnot that would get it to $200,000 by by the end of the year.
Yeah, great great flows from the ETFs. Black Rockck is showing record numbers. Uh, our companies raised $19 billion this year, right? All of it went into Bitcoin. We just announced 217 million of Bitcoin purchases this morning when I before I walked onto this set here. Wait, 217 million this morning.
217 million, just slightly less than 2,000 Bitcoin. Our first buy, and we were the first public company to buy Bitcoin. We bought $250 million of Bitcoin and that was like all the money we'd come up with in 30 years. Yeah. And this was just uh a short week, four days. Okay. So can I ask you this for for those folks who are investing in micro strategy as or strategy I should say as opposed to Bitcoin, you are effectively a levered bet on Bitcoin.
That's that's what this company has become. That's correct. Okay. So the question is on the way up it would be f it's fabulous, right? Because everything becomes you know uh multiplied. What happens on the way down if there is a down? Well, um a lot of investors they have to buy equity and so we offer Bitcoin backed equity or they need to buy credit and so we have four Bitcoin back credit instruments uh preferred stocks.
So the ones that are risk averse that want the exposure are buying the credit like strike which has got the upside with some downside protection. The ones that are buying the equity want 2x bitcoin. They want more volatility. They want more performance and they see it as more efficient way to get that exposure.
Turns out that 99% of the money in the world is mandated to equity and credit. Most of these professional investors and most of these passive funds, they can't buy the underlying commodity even if they wanted to. Right? But just to understand it, if in fact even if there was a a crypto winter, and we'll call it a winter because that's that suggests there's still a potential summer again, at what numbers and levels does it become complicated at which you start to have to sell things?
You know, we constructed a pretty bulletproof balance sheet. I I would say we have a PhD in leverage by now because we lived through the last crypto winner. We went from 66,000 to 16,000. We were buying Bitcoin at 16,000. We used to use uh senior senior debt and we had some uh some margin type loans.
We rolled out of that to converts and this year we really have started to reallocate to preferred and preferred are the best kind of leverage because they never come due. So I I think we're fine right now because substantially our leverage comes from preferred stocks rather than from debt at all. You you mentioned that you bought $250 million this morning or 27 million this morning as you walked in.
What what's your dollar cost average for what you've paid for Bitcoin? About $73,000 a coin. And and I guess I wonder if you think Standard and Pores or others or you know if if if anybody has any sort of bias towards crypto still at this point because the S&P 500 just came out with their decisions and they chose to go with Robin Hood and Apploven over strategy and a lot of people were kind of surprised by that.
The stock actually was down a little bit. Do you think that there is a bias at any of the indexes or any places that come through this against the company with a lot of Bitcoin and holdings? I don't think there's a bias. I don't think we expected to be selected on our first quarter of eligibility. We figure it'll happen at some time.
Um there's a digital transformation in the markets. This is a brand new novel concept. Every quarter we make new believers. we we get more support from banks, from politicians, from credit rating agencies, etc. I think that will continue um for the foreseeable future. Can we just go back to the preferred piece for just just a moment just know because I think people want to understand
Yeah. You know what a leveraged bet this is, but you're suggesting that because it's preferred, it never comes due. How can it be that they never come? You know, if you were using margin debt, you'd never want to go beyond 10% leverage. If you were using bonds, maybe 20 25% about is about the most you would want to do.
But if you're selling a perpetual instrument, I borrow a billion dollars forever and I agree to pay you say 10% dividend yield forever. The principal is never coming due, right? And the preferred stock by definition is a dividend. It's not a coupon. The board has to create has to have the option to suspend it in duress.
So it's practically speaking possible to take your leverage beyond 20% to 30 or 40% even. But you don't have the kind of credit risk you have when you have a bond or a margin. Let me ask you a different question. There's a whole bunch of companies now these sort of treasury companies that are emerging spaxs and other things that are trying to look a little bit like what you're doing, right?
We've had 180 companies that have adopted Bitcoin on their balance sheet. We were the first in the past. Right. But I but I'm curious about some of these levered efforts that may maybe using actual debt not preferred the way you are and how you think about them in the marketplace. Most companies are buying Bitcoin instead of holding uh sovereign debt or they're buying Bitcoin instead of divoting out their cash flows or instead of buying back their stock, they're just buying Bitcoin.
And so they're actually increasing their capital base. They're decreasing the credit risk in the company. There are few companies that are going to issue Bitcoin back credit. They may do it with bonds. They may do it with converts. They may do it with preferred. We're the first company to to create liquid preferred stocks that represent Bitcoin back credit.
Companies like MetaPlanet will probably issue preferred stocks. They'll do it in Japan in a yen basis. Most other companies are just going to creep into this by building up their capital base and they're not going to get into the business of issuing credit instruments backed by Bitcoin. Um, how much leverage do you have?
Um we have about uh let's see 11% of our Bitcoin holdings are are uh are bonds so convertible bonds and like another 9% are preferred so not that much I mean really all right there you go Sailor continuing to make his argument around uh Bitcoin and MCR. Again, the takeaway from that is that if you believe ultimately in uh in in in Bitcoin's price going up, I mean 200,000 by the end of the year like Tom Lisa, then obviously Sailor is going to, you know, have the most Bitcoin on the planet as a public company and that should benefit Micro Strategy.
But as of now, Bitcoin's been flat, right? Which is why MSTR has been flat to down. MSTR back to 330 was at 322 this morning. Hoodie could not break uh 117 yet. Kind of chilling in the 116s. We are up 15% on the day. Pounder 157, Tesla 349. That goes red. And then Nvidia just holding above $170. Nvidia CEO Jensen Hang to join President Trump on upcoming state visit to the UK next week.
Huh. So Trump and Jensen, by the way, this was the Skrely post about Open Door. Um it looks like he is going to begin waging war with the Open Door community. Um, it looks like Trump and Jensen are going to the UK together. Now, I would imagine this trip to the UK is around AI. Um, we do have uh DC GTC coming up for Nvidia in in the end of October.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Hong said to join President Trump on upcoming state visit to the UK next week. That is kind of weird though. Why is J I mean I know like like okay Trump's there for political stuff, Jensen's there for AI stuff. The fact that they're there together, I think it's kind of bullish for Nvidia.
It kind of means that J I mean this is like what this is the fifth time that Jensen has met with Trump this year. Also, the other reason this is important is because I don't know if they're going to both be on Air Force One together. But if they have a moment to talk, maybe Jensen can say, "Hey, remember that whole 15% of revenue that we were going to give you from China?
Uh yeah, we're still willing to give it to you, but we kind of we kind of need to be able to get the export controls to sell Blackwell. Pretty please. Can we can we get that moving? And if they can get that moving, then you know, Nvidia guided for upwards of almost $60 billion of revenue just off Blackwell to China, that would be bullish.
So maybe we can make some progress on the export controls from Nvidia if uh Jensen gets to talk to to Trump. Yeah, bullish Nebus. Nebus is big in Europe. I mean they're dude like again based on that clip we saw of that gentleman speaking about Broadcom and Nvidia capex zucks I just think the bare narrative on AI data center buildout is becoming kind of stupid and it's like listening to that versus looking at the numbers to me is just like listening to people that have an agenda to an extent by the way TLT getting some love today after the tenure coming down versus people like rooted in reality and and I think a lot of people want to be the Michael Bur they want to find the bare case which is fine but if you're going to look to data ers to find the bare case.
You got to deny a lot of the evidence that we're seeing in front of us. Like I think you can make a better bare case for like the crypto treasuries and if that all blows up, but like the AI data centers to me is not the the biggest bare case here. Um thoughts on Cla IPO? I am not buying it. I think it will do well though because uh IPOs have done dude there's a lot of IPOs this week and next week.
I think Cla will do well. It's one of the best known names. It's a very very very large brand across Europe. So I think uh yeah I think Cla will do well but I'm not participating in it. Argentinian peso slumps 7% at open after Malay loses local vote. Huh. Okay. That's not good for Argentinian stocks.
Wow. Malay apparently had a landslide defeat in Argentina where I think it's ARGT is the ETF. Wow. Down 8% on the day. Malay is the guy who kind of got this thing to make its move over the past five years. Uh Draen Miller bought heavy into ARGT back in 2021. It is up 200% since then because of the liberalized policies around free markets, but based on the decline, it looks like he is now down.
And so you got ARGT that's down about 8% on the day. So there you go. All right, we'll see how that ends up playing out uh and what happens with Malay, but that one is down about 8% on the day. Rango says the thing about people bearish on Nvidia. Nvidia is the only company which has a rack scale system for thinking models.
Why would they not do well? Nobody even has a competing product. I agree. It's really hard in my opinion to get super bearish just cuz Broadcom is selling a bunch of AS6. Like Nvidia's down from 185 to 160. Okay, it's a bubble. It's like some of the stuff on Twitter is just getting rid. It's like yeah, Nvidia is a bubble.
It's down like Nvidia's topped out at 185. It's like okay, dude. All right. I guess for the next 10 years, Nvidia's topped out at 185 because into a seasonally weak part part of the year, Nvidia goes down 10%. Like I just think it's hard to make that argument. Did I say Argentinia? I meant to say Argentina and Ar did I say did I actually say Argentina?
Goodness gracious, dude. All right, folks. That is it for me. I got to get out of here. Um I actually have a coffee I have to get with someone in New York City. Now that I live close to New York City, I can get there pretty easily. That's one of the benefits of moving close to the city. So, um it's actually with a venture capitalist uh from uh from Sequoia.
So, it's actually it's it's the fir it's it's it's a guy who invested in Robin Hood when they were worth like 30 million bucks. So, uh I'll probably make a Twitter post about that, but it'll be fun to catch up with him and get a meeting and is not a date with a dentist, at least not yet, but it'll be fun to kind of get his early perspectives on uh on Robin Hood.
Dropping it right here. 11560. That's up 14% on the day. Incredible for S&P. Word of the day is caravan. Caravan. A group traveling together for safety through difficult or dangerous areas. I've definitely heard of this word before. That is the word of the day. Guards rode at the front and rear of the caravan.
After weeks of travel, the caravan finally spotted their destination on the horizon. Okay, there you go. Hoodie up 14. Pounder 115. Octo for those that made money on it, congrats. 4275, that's up 2,800%. S&P 649, Nvidia 169, SOFI right there 2562, hoodie1,550, and then pound share 1565 on the day. All right, that's it.
Thank everybody. I'll be back for the market close. I'll see you then. We'll keep going from there and uh we'll see how the rest of the day plays out on the second week of September. It is not a grinder date. Now, Tanner, same bed in Vegas. That that might be a little bit more classified as a as a date, but I'm just But but again, I just want to wake him up.
That's all. I just want to wake him up on time. That's it. I just think if we're next to each, I can wake him up. That's that's all I'm saying, bro. It's not that crazy. I don't know why he said I was making it awkward. Like, I'm just trying to wake the guy up. Anyway, love you guys. See you guys later on the market close. Bye, everybody. Have a good one.
Comments 0