저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 엔비디아 주식을 2014년부터 보유해 큰 수익을 냈으나 최근 주력 ETF에서 엔비디아를 매도했다고 밝힘. 엔비디아는 25배 매출 대비 고평가, 테슬라는 6배 매출로 AI 관점에서 더 매력적이라 평가. 대부분 기업이 AI를 활용하며 독점 데이터를 보유해 디스럽션 위험이 있는 플랫폼(애플, 아마존, 구글 등)을 경계. 금리인하 이후 섹터 랠리는 실적 뒷받침이 필요하다는 입장이며, 러셀2000은 금리인하 발표 전 선반영된 '셀 더 뉴스' 국면으로 봄.
다듬은 글
in this video we disclose the unexpected rationale for our decision to sell nvidia's stock despite our unwavering belief that it will SAR in 2025 before Nvidia was cool you were there in 2014 you were purchasing it for $4 us the most recent surge since the flagship Arc Innovation ETF sold out of its primary holding in January in 2021 you rode the wave on this specific stock Kathy to 3 $30 why yes we've been really enthusiastic about Nvidia if you are uh very positive about it when it hit about $100 in the fourth quarter of last year we bought it down and when some of our other AI focused stocks stagnated it tripled you see we're examining the relative values of names in the AI space which despite popular belief many people do not think about us and we looked at Nvidia which is where it is with 25 times sales and Tesla which is arguably the most significant AI story at the moment with six times sales you paath yesterday I mean six times Revenue not earnings U path reported yesterday the AI play is outstanding additionally it is six times sales there are several reasons why we pause when it comes to Nvidia you'll find it in some of our more specialized portfolios since it still achieves our minimum hurdle rate of return which is is 15% at a compound annual rate over 5 years yes we are searching for better deals however cyclicality would be one of nvidia's risks I start to consider the cyclicality of a group when I hear shortages shortages shortages pertaining to gpus or anything else competition Tesla is developing a chip of its own Google and meta platforms are its own chips for larger more specialized language models the technology itself self meta platform's llama model teaches us that it can produce better models by doing more with less processing resources but more data as always there are puts and takes in this situation regarding your own purchases or the ETFs how many irid investors have contacted you through Twitter or other channels the fact that you maintained money in some funds but not the main RK ETF must have caused a great deal of annoyance to tell you the truth the majority of those who comprehended Nvidia tale were hammering away at it from 2014 until 2021 actually a lot of people may have held it and included it in their own portfolios people are aware that we are using AI but we are doing it in a somewhat different way which is why we have not received any opposition viia is now a stock that ticks all the boxes the valuation is where it is because of this however we are searching for plays that have not only the management team's vision and wide distribution but also proprietary data and AI knowhow in the same way that most people did not realize in video was an AI play until very recently we are just shifting to another set of plays that they have not yet identified you mentioned either vith or palent you mentioned Tesla although the number of AI focused names you have is very small overall there are quite a few is there something I'm missing does your Flagship fund have a lot more exposure to AI or are you simply choosing to support a select few well-known companies no another name would be twilio nearly all businesses in fact even multinational corporations like exact Sciences use their extensive distribution networks and in-house proprietary data to obtain information and develop better goods and services therefore I would argue that practically every company in our portfolio is using artificial intelligence a tremendous tool in one way or another and 90% of the names in the portfolio in my opinion are using it and actually possess proprietary data what Drew my attention and we've already witnessed a great deal of disruption to firm's market capitalization was when they were disrupted by chat GT for instance the schooling company Che comes to mind however you pointed out that chat PG platforms might disintermediate Apple for instance with its apps platform is that an important business that we should be concerned about being disrupted what other names spring to mind that the market may have misjudged the extent to which this new competition could overwhelm them in any case chap upt was either the worst or possibly the best thing that ever happened to Google however we often assume that chap GPT and other chat Bots will disintermediate it the type of search and hence advertising that powers Google's business model is not what we will require that is why we are concerned about it as you mentioned a lot of experts believe that social commerce the practice of individuals shopping on Instagram and other social media platforms like Pinterest as well as artificial intelligence AI tools will threaten even Amazon customers may get straight to the source if they say I want exactly this kind of item at the cheapest price anywhere in the world using chat GPT and other AI therefore we would say that every platform that has acted as an intermediary is vulnerable Tec is down 0.11% utilities are up 177% real estate is up 16.2% financials are up 10.5% small cap stocks are up 10% midap stocks are up 8% and the Dow Jones likee dividend index is up 12% W see then is that a great deal of that expectation was carried forward until the rate cut after that everyone simply stopped okay fair enough making money shouldn't be so simple whenever you have and this brings you to your point Okay so until the cut we made a ton of money in those Industries we're just halting now the problem is though I believe you believe it ends there it appears to be a pause we know we're going to land softly so what do we need right now nobody is contesting that for quite some time we've been in a gentle Landing after this it appears like we will be in a gentle Landing for some time earnings are now what we need therefore there isn't a stimulus to keep it continuing for the next 2 weeks all of that enormous return up to this point in the quarter was pushed forward we are currently sitting here Gathering data you receive items like BuyBacks by the way the trading Department of GP Morgan claims to be bullish and willing to purchase every dip they wish to maintain their tactical optimism the rise into the end of the year is supported by the macro setup the concur that choppiness is likely as well but aren't they correct we're all doing fine isn't the market still in a bull market a great deal of growth was accelerated everything has diminished choppiness in my opinion buy individual stock Falls when they occur you always purchase dips after all and that's always a wise choice however I believe that everyone is kind of right here I know that sounds so corny the market is booming there will be a leadership cost that has previous ly been observed that I believe goes on however in order to maintain the utilities and the small caps we absolutely must see earnings however it's great that you had a lot of people come on the network and talk to me before the cut saying things like hey you can't buy the Russell until you get the cut people aren't buying the Russell now that you have the cut it's accurate well the cut is yours now but how is the Russell doing so far this year I have three words for you sell the news please the Russel has risen 99.5% so far this year it was a perfect selda news moment in my opinion and the Russell was anticipating the news that was announced on Wednesday afternoon if I observe the kind of price movement that suggests you should purchase small caps I will be the first to jump in and go buy them however you're referring to the quarter and in my opinion the Russell has performed well in comparison to other market segments all of that in my opinion was in preparation for the announcement on Wednesday and the Russell's performance on the other side of that was a selda news moment
Comments 0