저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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경기침체 가능성은 투자자 심리 변화와 엔캐리 트레이드 같은 미인지 리스크로 커질 수 있다고 봄. 버크셔가 애플 지분을 대폭 축소(연초 이후 약 55%)한 배경으로 중국 관련 규제 리스크와 Google 반독점 이슈, 앱스토어 30% 수수료 규제 가능성을 거론. 애플은 규제 전환기에 재무 부담이 있을 수 있다는 논지. 버크셔의 현금 비축은 방어적 자세로 해석.
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regarding the recession Jason yes I have been forecasting the same recession but I believe that a number of factors including the fact that many investors are now suddenly concerned about it could be the reason it occurs now a significant change in mood has occurred another issue in my opinion is that we may not yet be aware of all the negative information unknown unknowns indeed none of us was keeping tabs on the carry trade in Yen I mean it was something we might have heard of but until this past week we weren't really considering it and how many more things like that are there in the world additionally I believe that this Administration has a history of keeping things under wraps but not to go political they kept pcity hidden for years for those who are unaware we are discussing the idea of black swans it must have a dramatic effect and be something you are unaware of in order to have a Black Swan this would not apply to the end trade as it didn't have a significant impact and people were well aware of it even if it wasn't Front Page News however black swans might be seated there the supre mortgage which had a huge impact during the great financial crisis but was unknown is undoubtedly the Black Swan that comes to mind when you think of recent events it was well known and had a significant effect a Black Swan must fit under each of those characteristics and black swans might exist correct when you stated that the Yen carry trade had no effect you're referring to SX the bank of Japan retreated which is why we don't know what would have happened if they had continued isn't that right just so anyone following the Black Swan tracker are aware it didn't let's discuss Apple I'll give your flowers to you immediately sha they are on their way to you look to your left a huge bouet has arrived because you foreseen that I wouldn't send you flowers here are your virtual flowers he said turning to his left I believe you were entirely right when you said that birkshire halfway and Buffett would become less interested in a trade the less they discussed it in their Publications letters and events as far as I'm aware birkshire Hathaway has sold half of Apple their biggest stake some claim they are overweight others say they don't trust the corporation and still others claim that freeberg wants to increase the amount of money on the books so they can make additional Acquisitions your you might just complete your Victory lap shamat and then we'll I believe freeberg double clicked on this and took a deep dive I'm at a loss for words it's been a pattern in their letters I believe he is selling when he sees us bringing up a company in his letter it's fantastic it's there yes and this is what took place all right then walk us through this freeberg it appears that they have liquidated 55% of their apple Holdings since the year began additionally if you consider the Year's End and Nick here is what birkshire stockholdings were in their non-majority owned companies if you can get up the pie chart graphic thus they do not fully own the company and apple accounted for half of their $174 billion portfolio just a few days ago Apple's stock price undoubtedly reached its highest point ever but it has since declined as it was revealed that Burkshire had sold 55% of this holding since the year began there are others who contend that they have a perspective on the business strategy and competitive environment with the valuation multiple trading at almost 30 times earnings some have claimed that it has risen too high since Burkshire purchased the stock in 2016 it has increased 900% nicely done nine bagger yes additionally as you can see below at the beginning of the year some would contend that the portfolio's percentage is excessively high at over 50% however I will offer some the counterarguments you know you know when Warren Buffett evaluates the stocks he has chosen he doesn't conduct a lot of research on business strategy he frequently identifies and discusses excellent managers who produce High returns and he continues to work with them and he sometimes stays with them for decades at a time this company's management has remained the same since he invested the return profile for both invested and returned funds has only become better he is pleased to be concentrated and they are producing greater cash flow paying out more dividends and repurchasing more stock he has wagered heavily on individual businesses over the years to the point where he occasionally simply buys the entire business as he did with Geto in 1996 he frequently discusses the need of identifying a business with excellent management a high-end product with a healthy profit margin and a strong brand value and longlasting moat according to my understanding of what's actually happening here Apple differs from some of the other state authorities approve an efficiently determine Geo's rates the reason Burkshire has a moat is that they have the biggest Capital base and a cash generating engine Additionally the government sets the rates in public however apple does not subject to any regulations and the regulatory bodies that keep an eye on the company make it abundantly evident that Apple faces serious and profound Financial Risk s given that Google pays Apple $20 billion annually to be the default search engine there is a genuine regulatory risk associated with the Google antitrust case we will discuss the Google arrangement in a moment apple and China have a close relationship as well they sell a lot of their products to China and do a lot of their manufacturing there therefore Apple faces a serious risk when Regulators begin to examine firm interactions with China more closely as they have stated they will users are tracked by advertising customers are subsequently charged membership fees above all we have discussed extensively the 30% Vig that Apple imposes on its App Store and how authorities are now intervening and investigating this as a result his business may be a monopoly in many meanings of the word because it is not yet regulated and apple may experience financial hardship during that transition when they reach the opposite side it begins to resemble a massive Burkshire style company much more that then is my type of synopsis of what's happening with Apple I'm not sure if you guys in other words I'm not sure it's quite deaf in my opinion what do you think of birkshire Hathaway's intentions in this enormous cash boost sack what's on Warren Buffett's mind is this because he gained weight or is he hoarding money because he wants to buy things cheaply or in order to avoid regulations during the impending recession according to free during the global sell-off that occurred on Sunday and Monday many people shared this graphic online and pointed out that Buffett was sitting on the largest cash pile he had ever been on people aren't really discussing this because of the market recovery that followed but it makes sense that Buffett is accumulating a war chest here and is in a relatively defensive posture as you can see he began making a lot of Investments which caused the cash pile to decline was that in 2021 to 2022 given the size of the cash pile it would be reasonable to assume that he believes that the risk reward ratio for public stocks is currently low and that he is once more slightly more riskof sham how do you feel about the regulatory risk argument that freeberg is putting forth here I'd agree with David and freeberg that the China issue might have had an effect but I also believe that he sold a significant amount of byd which they have owned since 2008 that's a Chinese EV company you know and so that might have been a contributing factor I'm not sure to be honest hold on you're claiming that both of those are dependent on China perhaps he thought that the portfolio as a whole relied too much on China perhaps I could purchase that yes that makes a fair amount of sense but it's important to keep in mind that these choices have in my opinion been considered for at least a few quarters you do realize that the letter he writes wasn't written yesterday don't you month after month that was being droughted therefore these choices were made some time ago if we're going to be conspiracy theorists there's also the explanation that perhaps Charlie Munger is beginning to compile the book in preparation for the smooth transition to Greg Abel after Buffet's death so hold on a minute that might be another when you say that you're implying that he wants to transfer it with less risk thus relying solely on one stock where China would be risky in order to facilitate a smoother handoff he wants to make it extremely tidy who wants to give away a well structured book or perhaps he and Abel he and Greg abble have already discussed the type of risk book they would like to have over the next 5 to 10 years and it shows that they have discussed what the next CEO wants it might therefore there may be a variety of explanations I'm not entirely sure I just believe that apple to return to freeberg main argument many of his General comments are ones that I agree with apple is a little bit off course but I'm not sure if that had an impact on berkshire's approach it is a business that has a successful unchecked Monopoly or duopoly and is unsure about what to do and that in my opinion is the company's greatest issue regardless of whether Buffett sells now sells in a year or doesn't sell in a year once you are regulated all of that risk is eliminated and you are aware of the costs what you can do and where do you can go that's what all of his other monopolies have in common
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