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key for Tesla's growth. Justify the multiple. Joining us now is Dan Eyes, Wedg Bush, global head of technology research. Dan, happy Friday. Great to be here. So, Alphabet's Whimo is way ahead of Tesla on autonomous execution. So, how much better does Tesla have to be? You have to believe its model is to believe it's a trillion dollar opportunity for Tesla alone.
Yeah, look clearly, you know, the the big head start, but four cities, $230,000 cars, right? I mean my view is the golden age of autonomous starts on Sunday in Austin for Tesla because it's the scale and scope. I mean John my view is like 25 to 30 cities in the next year and as they start scaling cyber cabs and get to true level four I believe it's it's a trillion dollar opportunity valuation for Tesla and I think this is actually the start of their biggest chapter of growth and actually valuation upside.
Don't they have to be almost perfect to get to 25 to 30 cities within a year to have that kind of scale? And so, how do you factor risk into this model, too? I mean, to to ramp this, Tesla has to first put its own vehicles on the street, but it also wants Tesla owners to offer up their cars as well.
Do they need that to achieve the profitability that make them work? It's a great question. I don't think that they need that. I mean to me it's really when I view cyber cabs and I where I see this all going I mean I think ultimately 20% of the transportation industry in my view will be autonomous when we look out the next 6 7 10 years I think Tesla it starts off with when you look at what's happening with Cyber but ultimately other automakers they're going to have to OEM that technology from Tesla.
So my view is that this is the start when you think about AI and you think about true AI and really what the golden goose going to be autonomous Tesla I believe is going to lead this market handily and ultimately it all starts on Sunday with the launch in Austin but I think it's step by step they're going to show that they could get true level four and I think this is we're going to look back Sunday I think is a historical moment for Tesla.
Is there room for everyone though? I mean, we're talking about Tesla looking to Sunday, Whimo, which is obviously deploying in cities and continues to to grow its its licenses. New York City, for example, earlier this week. You've got the dark horse in all of this, too, which is the Amazon um backed Zuks autonomous uh fleet that's being built out, too.
If you're only talking about potentially 20% of uh vehicles in the US becoming autonomous in coming years, is there room for everyone? Look, I think there's room for others and you're going to have a convergence in terms of transportation tech just like you talked about. Whimo will clearly be a player.
Uber, you know, obviously they'll partner more and more, but I think look, when it comes to true scale and scope, I don't think anyone matches Tesla. And that that's sort of our view is that where this is going I mean you talk about a company when you think about you know 2 million 1.7 2 million vehicles per year cyber cabs ultimately this is something that you'll be 3 400,000 500,000 and I think that's really true AI that's why I believe Tesla is the most undervalued AI play in the market today.
I don't think the market is valuing this piece. I do want to get your thoughts on IBM because you put out a new note on that. You've raised the price target to what 325 per share. Um this is already trading at record highs. It's up 18% in the past two months. It's the other AI playquantum play SL. Um why do you continue to be so bullish here now with these?
Yeah, I mean the mojo and Armon I mean my view when it comes to IBM is that this is just the beginning. I it's a page out of Microsoft's playbook and I mean the hundred $200 move no one believed 200 300 I believe this could be a $400 $500 stock because it's about the install base not even just the quantum piece monetization on AI and all of our checks which is why we raised our price target showing the adoption continuing to increase I think what Arvin's done at IBM it's it's it's really the magic he is been the key to what really now seeing a renaissance of growth in Arman from IBM.
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