저자: CathieWood발언을인용한진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 진행자는 2022년 경기침체가 임박했다고 보며, 캐시 우드의 지표 설명을 근거로 침체 대비와 현금·신용관리를 권한다. 에너지 가격 급등과 투자자 공포 확대를 침체 신호로 제시하며, S&P500 내 에너지 섹터가 연초 대비 33% 상승했다고 언급한다. 진행자는 시장이 이미 고점을 찍고 하락 중이라고 주장한다. 인플레이션 상승, 금리 상승, 구매력 하락, 소비자 신뢰 하락을 침체 지표로 제시한다. 캐시 우드는 소비재 재량·서비스·기술 섹터가 가장 부진하다고 설명했다. 장단기 금리 역전(일드커브 역전)이 과거 9차례 침체를 예측했다고 강조한다. 2년물과 10년물 스프레드가 작년 3월 약 160bp에서 현재 약 15bp까지 좁혀졌다고 말한다. 하이일드 스프레드가 상승 중이며, 급등 시 기업 부채 상환 곤란과 고용 악화로 이어질 수 있다는 캐시 우드 견해를 소개한다. 진행자 본인은 주식보다 부동산에 초점을 두며, 금리 상승 시 신용점수가 중요하다고 조언한다. 신용카드 이용률은 한도의 30% 이하 유지를 권한다. 진행자 전망: 2022년 말~2023년 침체 가능성이 매우 높으며 '주택시장은 카드로 쌓은 집'이라 붕괴가 임박했다고 주장. 침체 중 주식 매수 기회가 될 수 있다고도 언급한다. 가격 목표치는 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
welcome back to real estate mindset you guys today's video is absolutely bonkers it's kind of to a companion to my last video that i made how to make money during a recession now because i'm not a financial advisor i'm just a normal guy that's learned the hard way i'm going to put on kathy wood with arc investment she's an absolute genius and we're going to have to listen closely to what she is saying she's very very smooth very very smooth woman she's an amazing woman but what i want to pinpoint is whether or not we are about to be in a recession possibly in a recession right now so she's going to pinpoint some indicators and those indicators are what i think is leading to a recession in 2022 such as energy prices going through the roof consumer purchasing power going down consumer confidence going down fear going up a surge is an inflation a surge of interest rates and things of that nature but also the number one thing inverted yield curve the inverted yield curve is very very important as i've said it predicted nine recessions in the past so she's going to go into all of those things but we're going to start with the energy soaring and investor fear which is often times of an indication of a recession now remember before i continue you guys do me a favor like this video subscribe to my channel and definitely comment below now as always the reason why i'm bringing this to you is if we prepare ourselves correctly we don't have to be trapped in a recession we can actually win in a recession and as you know it's very difficult to know when we're in a recession because it's two consecutive quarters of loss in gdp growth which means we won't know for six months but the money is generally made during the recession especially in the stock market as of every recession three months three years after every single recession the stock market has gone up an average of 40 percent so some of the best times to invest is during a recession so it's important to know when are we in a recession that's why i want to listen to her because she is going to talk about some of the indicators that i think are present right now for an upcoming recession let's take a look at her right now i'll give you the the top and bottom sectors at least for the s p 500 over well year to date and no surprise given what has happened to the energy price uh energy is the only sector that's up it's up 33 percent and uh consumer staples and utilities are the uh fill out the top three they're down just uh just a bit so that's an interesting uh that's an interesting combination energy um we know what's going on there staples is a very defensive sector that says that investors are are becoming somewhat concerned about the economy and utilities are interest rate sensitive so when interest rates go down uh utilities dividend yields look better and better so they tend to outperform okay guys as she mentioned just so you have someone other than me ranting about this okay energy sector up 33 investor fear present now remember those are indicators of a recession when there's a sudden surge in it when there's a sudden surge in gas prices and energy prices that can oftentimes lead to that recession when the stock market starts to go down usually that's an indication of uh coming recession because remember typically the market peaked six months prior to a recession and i'm telling you guys the market has peaked we are already heading down towards a recession as far as the stock market so next what we're going to look at from kathy is inflation going up interest rates going up purchasing power going down and consumer confidence going down which are very very important to note again as far as indicators of a recession so let's take a listen to kathy wood right now now in a rising inflation environment uh uh interest rates are not supposed to come down and at the short end of the curve they are not coming down but at the long end they are and we'll we'll get into that in a bit the worst performing sectors uh are associated with the consumer again um i think the loss of purchasing power is a big problem for the consumer so consumer discretionary consumer services and technology which despite innovation getting a booster shot from problems as innovation solves problems it is a high beta sector and so so many investors just shy away from it when trouble seems to be on the horizon okay consumers are getting hit she mentioned it herself again this is just someone else that's kind of agreeing at least with the data right i'm not saying she's agreeing that there's a recession although she's going to warn about it in a minute here but she is at least agreeing with certain indicators that could possibly lead to ins and uh that could possibly lead to a recession consumer fear purchasing power going down interest rates going up and the fact that we are in a situation to where there is high inflation now the next thing that she's going to go into is the inverted bond yields this is very important and i also want you guys to understand what she's saying she's basically comparing last year i believe march last year there was about 160 basis points difference from the two-year and ten year now as of today it is even closer i believe it's 17 basis point difference from the two-year and the 10-year treasury the five-year and the three year are over the ten year right now the reason why i'm bringing that up you guys is because of how quickly it happened a lot of people can't fathom the recession but what i have been telling you guys uh you know off the chains here is how quickly things can go downhill and how quickly things can lead into a recession so we're going to listen to her right now as far as the treasury and as far as the bonds and i want you guys to pay close attention to what she's saying okay let's start right now as far as the bond market the long treasury yield long treasury bond yield peaked in mid-february at 2.06 and is back down to 173.
now what's been very interesting is the yield curve which peaked in march of last year at i think roughly 160 basis points so the difference between long-term interest rates and short-term interest rates 160 basis points and that was um that was a reflection of uh easy monetary policy uh short rates being much lower than than long range now though now that the fear is that the fed is going to increase a number of times we're seeing short-term interest rates up a lot certainly in the context of recent history but long rates not going up as much and so the yield curve has compressed to 25 basis points now uh we're getting close to an inverted yield curve meaning meaning long rates uh below short rates and that is often a sign that the fed is too tight and real growth is going to disappoint and inflation is going to be lower than expected we think that is the case and we thought so for some time high yield spread so the difference between high-yield bonds interest rates and treasury bond yields they are moving up uh and uh corroborating that outlook now they've they haven't spiked and uh and it doesn't suggest duress out there yet uh but um they're not much above pre-covid levels in indeed but if they move up rapidly from here we will be in a territory that uh would suggest that some companies are finding it difficult to service their debt finding some companies that are having difficulty serving their debt you guys when small businesses get hit it's going to hurt the job market that again the recession now again i want to really focus on the inverted bond yields so what i'm going to do is i'm going to pull up today's bond yield so that you guys can see how close we actually are and remember what i'm saying here the inverted bond yield has accurately called nine recessions when the two year is over the ten year generally that's going to be a recession it has been for almost the entire history there have been a couple false calls but again you guys it's not just me saying this we have kathy woods very intelligent woman talking about indicators she's not using the r word right the recession word she's using very tactful words because she's a very intelligent person unlike me i'm a lot more abrasive i guess i'm trying to tone it down but look at today's bond yields right now look at how close we are to an inverted yields okay as you guys can see this is as of the 18th at 1 16 p.m here's the 10 year okay this is the one that is being measured again so it's at 2.14 look it the five year it's already over the 10-year the three-year it's already over the 10-year the two-year look at how close it's only 15 basis points away from matching the 10-year only 15-year basis points when it was at uh when it was at 160 basis points remember that last year 160 basis points right now only 15 basis points so you guys please consider what i'm saying the reason why i'm saying this is i don't want you to get hurt most people are overspending most people are living beyond their means but it doesn't mean you have to and if you are right now it doesn't mean you can't change you can re-budget right now you can track your budgeting right now through apps like mint.com and you can start saving money because going forward into 2022 going into 2023 we need to have exceptional credit worthiness so likewise other than just saving money build your credit have ex outstanding credit so that you can invest not only in the stock market i don't really want to cover the stock market although during a recession is some of the best times to buy stocks some of the absolute best times to invest but i'm focusing more on real estate and if things tighten up and rates go up you're gonna need to have great credit so one of the best things you could do as far as having great credit is how you use your credit cards credit cards are very important to have three to five credit cards and what they have is something called utilization ratio which basically means never go over 30 of your credit line to have an optimal fico score increase okay so consider what i'm saying guys that's from kathy woods all those indicators she's not using the word recession but i am i believe i'm quite certain we're going to be headed to a recession there's all that fake money printing the housing market was being supported by low interest rates and free money now the interest rates are going up and there's no more free money what do you think is going to happen i know it's hard for you guys to see this but it is a house of cards fixing to collapse so i need you guys to get ready now as always that is my advice also last thing y'all enjoy your families okay sit out of the market better your situation and make money during the coming recession during the end of this year in 2022 and into 2023 and as always guys good luck out there and i hope you win
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