Cathie Wood Housing Market and Recession WARNING!

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결론: 캐시 우드는 주택시장이 '가장자리부터 해지고 있다'며 경기침체 가능성을 경고했고, 진행자는 이를 근거로 주택시장 버블과 침체를 예상하며 당분간 주택 투자 보류를 권함. 주택 지표 (2022년 3월 발표 기준): 주택착공 2월 전월 대비 6.8% 증가, 건축허가 1.9% 감소, 기존주택 판매 7.2% 감소, 신규주택 판매 2% 감소(전월 8.4% 감소 이후), pending home sales 전월·전년 대비 모두 감소, 모기지 신청 2개월 연속 감소. 케이스-실러 기준 주택가격은 전년 대비 약 20% 상승했으나 공급 부족은 여전하다고 언급. 장단기 금리차: 2년물-10년물 금리가 역전되었고 10년물 금리는 약 2.35%. 캐시 우드는 2-10년 역전이 2차 세계대전 이후 역전 발생 후 12~18개월 내 항상 경기침체로 이어졌다고 설명하며, 침체는 빠르면 5개월, 길면 약 1년 11개월 뒤 올 수 있다고 봄. 3개월-10년 스프레드보다 2-10년 지표를 더 중시. 진행자 해석: 낮은 매물과 FOMO에 따른 주택 버블이 침체를 촉발해 버블이 터질 것이라 주장. 2008년 침체 때 본인은 자산 40%(약 30만 달러) 손실, 실직, 압류를 겪었다고 회상하며 경계를 강조. 진행자 전망: 봄·여름 시즌 재매물화, 압류 증가, 신규 건설 허가 증가로 매물이 늘어 주택 공급이 회복될 것으로 봄. 수요는 인플레이션과 금리 급등으로 약해진 상태이며, 2023년 내 하락 전환 가능성을 언급. 권고: 현재 주택 투자는 보류하고 신중히 기다릴 것, 저금리 주택 보유자는 유지, 저축·신용관리·재예산 편성. 진행자는 금융 자문가가 아니라 의견 공유자라고 밝힘. 출연자 전망 요약: 캐시 우드는 주택 판매 둔화와 장단기 금리 역전을 근거로 경기침체 가능성을 높게 봄(방향성 중심 발언, 종목 추천 없음).

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01. welcome back to real estate mindset today's video is going to be absolutely bonkers it's going to be kathy wood of arc investment basically talking about the housing market fraying at the seams and on a possible recession now as you guys know i believe we're in a housing market bubble being fueled right now by low inventory and massive fear and emotion of missing out and i believe that all of those things combined is essentially going to lead to a recession which will then lead to a massive bubble pop unlike anything we've ever seen in the history of the u.s housing market so it's going to be interesting to hear her thoughts on the housing market and also her thoughts on a potential recession that's right around the corner obviously a lot of people have been talking about the two and the ten inverting and how long after an inversion is a recession typically happen when does that essentially happen now all of this i think is very important especially if you're going to invest in real estate because right now may not be the time to invest you may want to sit out for just a little bit so that we can start purchasing on the flip side of the market a lot of times at the flip side of the market people can make a ton of money and basically get the home of their dreams so there's nothing wrong with that now you guys as always i am not a financial advisor i'm an opinion sharer realtor in houston loan officer in texas and if you can for the algorithm please like this video you guys share it subscribe to my channel if you haven't and as always comment on your thoughts of our current housing market and your thoughts on the date of this video obviously this video is going to be in my description below if you guys want to reference the entire thing it's a great video i believe she's a little bit more conservative obviously she works for an investing bank so she kind of plays down some things i think but essentially the writing is on the wall let's take a listen right now on what she has to say about the housing market two sectors that have been very strong but are starting to fray at the edges and we need them to stay out in in order to stay out of recession we probably need these two sectors housing and capital spending to continue uh at a fairly strong pace uh we're seeing some fraying at the edges in while housing starts were up a nice a big 6.8 percent uh in february permits were down 1.9 percent existing home sales were down 7.2 percent new home sales were down two percent after an eight point four percent drop the previous month pending home sales are down both month to month and year over year and mortgage applications have been dropping for two months uh so while housing prices are still up nearly twenty percent uh uh according to the case-shiller uh um indexes uh on a year-over-year basis and there probably still is a shortage um maybe the prices are are taking people out of the market you guys essentially even she is saying kind of a conservative investor that the housing market is fraying at the edges and if not fixed will lead to a recession but let me ask you this how can it possibly be fixed there's no supplies there's no inventory and affordability has been destroyed how can you fix that but not only that she's also indicating that sales are down across the board which obviously does not spell signs of a healthy housing market which is essentially what she's saying we need in order to stay out of bad things happening like a recession now obviously we can pretty much all agree that the 2008-2009 recession destroyed home prices as a result i know of loose lending standards and things like that but the recession was no good that's been proven essentially in our last recession where the average median home price lost over 10 percent in equity and here's the thing guys 10 when people look back at 2008 they don't remember 10 percent they remember 30 and 40 i myself lost 40 home equity 300 000 the problem was i lost my job as a result of the recession i could not make my mortgage payment and i could not sell my house because i was upside down on my house i so i couldn't sell so essentially that led to a foreclosure which essentially led to 10 years of financial struggle for myself so i don't want you guys to go through that i don't want to scare you guys i want to equip you and say hey if there's any way you can slow down if there's any way you can save and pause or just stay put if you already own a home at a really low interest rate stay put for a little bit don't invest because like 2008 we're in a pretty big housing market bubble it's a recession is fixing to hit i believe that recession is going to be the catalyst that pops the bubble but let's talk a little bit more about a recession let's hear what kathy wood has to say about the 210 inversion and what that possibly means as far as a recession coming let's listen now very importantly with the employment report the yield curve twos to tens as i started talking about earlier inverted and again that's a warning to the fed um at 2.35 percent on the 10-year treasury bond um that which tends to track nominal gdp growth over time so to 2.3 2.4 that is telling the fed the bond market actually is telling the fed look we think growth and inflation are going to be lower than expected so be careful uh we've been amused over the last uh i would say it's maybe two months that uh once the twos to tens uh started to invert um there was a shift by people who just wanted to be bullish on activity and growth and value stocks a shift to the three month versus ten year well we've studied that and the twos to tens so that yield curve is a leading indicator for uh the three month to ten year uh treasury yield yield curve so um i don't know why everyone took that jog at the same time it was as i said amusing uh but just know at least from our point of view and from our research uh the the one that we place a higher uh priority on or or place more weight on is the twos to tens it's inverted and in post-world war ii experience every time the yield curve has inverted within 12 months to 18 months we have been in a recession so that's consistent with the inventory and output dynamic i described a little uh earlier you guys so essentially this the inversion of the 210 is a warning sign for the fed and everyone else that it is possible and highly likely actually that a recession is coming and historically in as little as five months as long as one year and 11 months but historically you guys it is highly highly likely a recession is coming now remember the 210 is the leading indicator of a potential recession coming not necessarily the three month the three month is important but it is always and in her eyes and a lot of other people's eyes the 2 and the 10 inversion so you guys essentially even with low inventory there's a great possibility of a recession in a housing market crash in fact what i am specifically saying is it is because of the low inventory i know topped with the fear of missing out but it is essentially because of the low inventory that the housing market bubble got so bad i don't think we would have such a massive housing market bubble unlike anything we've ever seen if it wasn't for the low inventory now remember this also guys inventory is actually going to start increasing in my opinion from here on out because we're entering into spring and summer months which is historically the biggest months for for listings coming back on the market from resell houses so we're going to fixing to get an inventory increase from there which is what we need essentially for all of this to play out plus foreclosure bans have been listed so we're going to get a surge of foreclosures i know that takes time but nevertheless there will be a lot of inventory coming from foreclosures and i think that only goes up from here not only that we're going to start getting services of inventory from all of the new builders who have been building since 2021 massive amounts of permits have been attained and i believe potentially a lot of the buyers that they currently have under contract are going to fall out of contract regardless you guys supplies are going to start going back up now i've been saying this affordability is the biggest risk factor for a housing market crash now obviously inventory is going up demand has been rug pulled essentially because of inflation and surging interest rates so all i'm saying is this my opinion is this stay patient i believe the people that are staying patient will have the biggest results the best results and will be the biggest winners of a potential downshift in 2023 and the end of this year so you guys maybe pump the brakes a little bit stay patient build your credit and credit worthiness save your money re-budget and love your family that's always going to be my opinion you guys it's the same thing it's just the thing is we need to do it there's so many distractions now i hope i gave you guys some insights here and some education and some really good opinions now if you can like i said comment below now if you're out there or if you want to invest in real estate i wish you luck and i hope you win