저자: MitchGhattas · 외국인
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버리 공매도, 버핏 현금 보유 등을 근거로 시장 붕괴 경고. 학교구채·부동산 세금 사기 우려, 연준 금리인상 기대 약화 언급. 주택시장 침체 및 공실률 상승 주장. 변동성 베팅 전략(풋 매수·콜 스프레드 매도) 소개. 채권·금리 방향 예측은 명시적이지 않음.
다듬은 글
the most recent story, which in the case of these programs would be in the history of these programs. If you committed fraud worth a million dollars or less, you are unlikely to ever face criminal liability at all. And if for some strange reason in the past a bureaucrat had the courage to defy agency guidelines, take you to trial, and put you in front of a jury, you would hardly serve any real prison time.
There is a lot of fraud in our economy, and many people escape punishment for this fraud. And I think Michael Berry understands that. Because, Justin, Michael Berry says the stock market is close to a serious peak and possible 1987-like crash, which, by the way, is a complete disaster. I think he may be right, because when we look at the Buffett indicator, we have never seen such a strong warning sign.
A warning sign that the stock market is on the verge of collapse. So, I put the arrow right there, on March 2023, because I want to remind you, friends, of the root of the problem. It's not Baby Boomers, it's not Generation Z, it's the Federal Reserve. So notice to the right of the arrow, the stock market is actually going straight up.
Do you see that? Why is that? See that little bend in the graph right there? We ourselves have become the butt of a joke. This is not a small bend . These are assets of the Federal Reserve. So, during quantitative easing, literally, my friends, less than a year after it started, they saved the market.
You can see it right there. And they not only saved the market, they prevented any deflation. Here is another indicator that uses many different data points and warns us of an upcoming stock market crash, it is known as the " Hindenburg Oracle". And this is the Hindenburg Oracle tracker. And at this point it is elevated, but it has not yet worked.
The last time it worked was about a month and a half ago, on June 23. I remember a very important saying from my childhood: watch your money. Again, watch your money. And so when we follow the money, look at this. Warren Buffett is sitting on a record $397 billion in cash, while Michael Berry opens a $1 billion short on AI , betting on a repeat of 1999.
Let 's quickly get back to the Fed. This appeared this morning. Urgent: Federal Reserve's Neel Kashkari says it's time to start gradually raising interest rates to bring down inflation. But the market doesn't believe them, because right now, according to market estimates, the probability of an interest rate hike in September is only 47%.
So I wonder if the market sees some kind of upheaval coming? Is that why it is falling so rapidly? After all, this figure reached almost 70%. It has decreased significantly. So, Mitch, we have all this fraud, all this debt, and all these red flags . But for those who are prepared, this is not a concern.
This is an opportunity. So can you explain if you can make a lot of money, not just a little bit, Mitch, but a lot of money, if you time it right during a market crash? For ordinary people, this is a very difficult game. Warren Buffett and Michael Burry see the same thing I do , but I would add to Burry's concerns the fraud in property taxes and school district bonds.
If you take that into account and understand how the market will react when school district bonds implode or burst—which they will because there is not enough money to repay them—the reality is that there is a good chance that when that happens, it will drag U.S. Treasury bonds with it. And it will happen in a matter of hours, because that's how markets work.
When something goes wrong, everyone rushes for the exit at the same time . Well, Michael Burry is preparing for that to happen. He will probably enter positions gradually, watching the market, but whatever he does, he has a fairly large stake. He is known for this. Warren Buffett, on the other hand, is waiting for the bloodshed to begin in the streets.
When he sees an opportunity, that's when he puts the cash into action . But, if I'm not mistaken, he holds about $380 billion in cash. This is a huge amount, " powder in the powder kegs" , waiting for a certain event. However, I believe it will be many times worse than any of them are projecting, because their models don't include the school district bond fraud, which is $5.1 trillion of complete garbage.
And this is a huge problem, not necessarily for Warren Buffett or Michael Burry, but it's a problem for all of society. And that's exactly what we're doing— trying to help society understand that the situation can be fixed, but for that, ordinary people need to get involved and push politicians to the wall to make it happen.
And frankly , the situation at the state level is so dysfunctional right now that I think this can only happen by presidential decree, if I may say so. But the states have no choice but to comply, or else they will all face bankruptcy. And I'll tell the audience: what Mitch is talking about applies to you, because school district bonds and municipal bonds are your services, guys.
This is your community. And if your community and its services collapse, it will create chaos like we've never seen before. But I want to come back to one point, Mitch , because you missed that part. Look, I've talked to you before. We talked about the possibility of teaching people scalping, day trading, and things like that.
But didn't you tell me that your favorite way to make money in the stock market is when it's going down? Did I hear correctly? I have been doing my job for a very long time. And even in real estate, when I buy, I make returns that make Warren Buffett's results pale in comparison. This is because I take the same approach as him : wait until there is "blood" in the streets.
So I can buy assets at a huge discount and then I restore them. This is no different than buying a house at a discount. Only the scale is different. But the principle is the same. Coincidence: When real estate prices fall, volatility increases. Well, in the market, if you know how to trade it, when volatility is rising, that's definitely the best way to make huge money the fastest—to bet on volatility.
So, you can do what is called a “super- bearish” strategy , as an example. This is buying a put option and selling a call spread above the market. You are raising money to pay for the put option you bought. And the level of profitability from this is simply cosmic. And if you catch a huge movement, it doesn't matter what it is .
These could be treasury bonds. They don't usually move like that, but it's possible. But it could be what you saw today on silver—a great example. Silver volatility has gone up. But as you have seen over the past few months, the volatility in silver and metals has been on a downward trend. But those who bought based on volatility , somewhere between the $56 and $62 figures, have just made back their commissions as of this minute.
So, all they have from this point on is the potential for growth. All of these can be traded if you know how, which is what we tried to warn ordinary people about a few months ago: "Here's an opportunity to learn, but go in with small amounts." Don't be foolish. Come in with small amounts, get an education.
There are resources, such as SMB Capital, for those who need help. They are quite ...they are really good . But the point is to learn before you jump off a cliff. Yes. And I want to add: protect your purchasing power. That's why I've been telling you about it for the last 3 years: because you can get incredible deals when no one else can take advantage of them because they're suffering.
And one more point: why is this so important—as Mitch said, you go up the stairs and you go down the elevator. That's why volatility is higher. And again, as Mitch said, you make money if you have the opportunity, if you have the resources and the purchasing power. You make money, more money, during times of volatility.
So, again, guys, take care of yourself , be very, very careful. Now let's move on to Zillow and the housing market. Zillow recently laid off 7 % of its staff, which is about 500 employees. Of this number, about 20% of the layoffs are in Washington. And if we go directly to the Zillow website, you'll see that yesterday they released this article, and basically it's just another piece of nonsense, there's really nothing important there.
Although here's what they say: "These are difficult decisions." "The difficulties are really for those who are left without work, not for the person who is writing this." "What do our steps reflect?", do you know what I mean? Like, if I get fired and you talk about "steps" or something, isn't that extremely disrespectful?
"This is just my opinion." “We are implementing our strategy,” and their strategy is liberation, “and the reality of what is needed for our development,” and this is again liberation. " So I want to share why we made this decision and what it means for Zillow going forward." This means that if you work there, you may have just been fired.
Perhaps the biggest surprise to me is why they haven't cut more than 7% of their total staff, because remember, the housing market is in complete chaos right now . The number of transactions in the real estate market has fallen sharply, and if we look at data from the National Association of Realtors, recent home sales on the secondary market show a decline.
Strangely enough, despite the fact that last year was terrible, the situation is even worse now: a 2.4% year-on-year decline in June. It's now much easier to see how bad things are in the housing market if we look at this graph of resale homes. I want you to pay attention to the period immediately before the lockdowns, it's about here.
So, we have a little less than 6 million transactions per year. You can see it right here. But look at this, friends. Then the indicator skyrocketed due to ultra-low interest rates and money printing. This was a result of the actions of the Federal Reserve, and then everything collapsed. Look at how low transaction volumes have remained over the years.
Look at this, many years in a row. This is the level of operations typical of a recession. In fact, if we go back to the left to the global financial crisis, which was the biggest housing market crash ever, look at this. It continued at such a low level only, so what? About a year? And now we have been observing this for almost 3 years.
And even foreign cash buyers—look, that's plummeted. It fell absolutely precipitously. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. Actually, I don't think it's a bad thing, but it's interesting how quickly the demand for foreign investment has fallen. And at the same time that demand is falling, the supply of new homes—I'm not talking about the secondary market, I'm talking about new homes—has skyrocketed, again , to recession levels.
If you look at the left side of this graph, these are indicators of a recession period. Look, the 2008 recession has passed —9.3 months. How many do we have now? 9.3 months. Let's look at this recession right here. Look, 8.5 months. We come back here, the same thing , the indicator increases to 11 months.
Look at this. This means that we now have data typical of a recession. According to Zillow, as of September last year, the housing market reached a value of $55.1 trillion, which as of the third quarter of 2025 is approximately 16.1% of the entire economy. Mitch, can you explain how the housing market will be affected by a recession and vice versa?
How will the recession affect the housing market? It's a vicious circle. So when there is a recession, we are in a recession, let's make that clear. There are two problems that everyone confuses together, and one of them is that the economy is supposedly doing great. And my answer to that is: what kind of economy is it?
Family business, small business or Wall Street? Wall Street has the appearance of success, but it is only an illusion. And the truth is that it's a family business, and you can see it in the wallet. So, it's a vicious circle. The recession is deepening and the housing market is weakening. And we talked about this yesterday because of the oversupply .
But I want to digress from this issue for a second, because I will come back to it. Warren Buffett's returns have averaged about 27% since 1965, and he didn't start making really big money until he was 70 years old. So, it went through many cycles. In fact, his company created Berkshire Housing, a real estate division, during one of these downturns .
He picked up an asset, bought it on the market, and turned it into something significant. This is what they are known for. But the point is that you need to survive for a long time to achieve such a result. And his company, Berkshire, was created as a way to allow those profits to be capitalized. Given that before the estate tax fraud, the compound interest on my profits was between 60 and 100%.
It depended on the object and how much work needed to be done. Can it be done, and this is the cyclical part, can it be done in today's market ? No, it's impossible. And the reason this is impossible is that property taxes are too high. When I build, I am actually being robbed. There is too much overpriced product in the apartment building market that tenants cannot afford.
And there is simply no profitability there. So let's talk about profitability for a second. Did you know that today the average return on buying an apartment building is about 5.5%? That's a 5.5% annual return on our money. Now compare that to Warren Buffett's annual return of 27%. What's the vacancy rate there , Mitch?
Do you know? Well, we just saw one come back. I had to pop into town for a minute. A new facility is being built there . This is about 600 apartments. But I promise you it will open with a very small number of tenants. So, it would take years to fill something of that size. And they throw it to the ground in one fell swoop.
We have already estimated that over 60 new, relatively new, multi-apartment buildings built in the last 3 years are being returned to banks. They are not working. They start renting for next to nothing. So, it doesn't work. Even the management's opinion that "well, we have to lower the rent. We must give this for free, that for free." This is not true.
There are no mathematical calculations on this planet that would support this statement. This is a weakness of management companies. But they added so many suggestions that you have to be a fool. If you don't understand these numbers : most of these facilities are being built with other people's money.
So the only ones who are going to make money are the management company, the developer, whoever it is, but the truth is that few of them are going to make a profit and a rate of return. You see, these are just projected rates of return. But the actual rates of return: if they build it with a capitalization of six percent—which is not really the case— but even if it were, by the time they rent the properties out, that six percent will disappear.
So my point, going back to Warren Buffett: he's right. Durability is key. Scale and small size. You should invest in something you understand, such as precious metals or cash. Very slowly, very conservatively, don't stretch anything and don't pay attention to what the neighbors are doing because it doesn't matter.
Most of these neighbors are up to their ears in debt, and these circular arguments, when the recession hits the main street, will lead to collapse. The problem is that this will accumulate. This will become incremental and cumulative. This will be the final result. When these school district bonds burst, they will drag everything in their path with them.
This will literally be a tail- wagging-the-dog situation. And that says a lot. And she too, we both say, and a lot of people are saying now, that it's worse than 2008. But I wanted to remind you guys what happened in 2008. Until 2008, housing prices were actually falling. It didn't fall as wildly as it did after the recession, but after the recession, housing prices fell depending on the metropolis.
Remember, real estate is a super-duper hyperlocal thing, but housing prices have been falling for two or three years. In fact, the Federal Reserve was once again forced to bail out the housing market through " Operation Twist," in which they incentivized Wall Street to buy private homes with your taxes.
So how can anyone say that the Fed isn't a fraud ? We got two employment reports today, starting with the JOLTS jobs report. So, breaking news: in June, the number of vacancies fell by 178 thousand, to 7.36 million. This is the lowest figure since March. This is the second consecutive monthly decline, bringing the total reduction in two months to 226,000.
Now this suggests something opposite to what we will see next. But it says here that the decline was caused by private education. Remember, friends, this is data for June. And when we move on to July, the report that also came out today— they come out one month apart—is the ADP report for July 2026 .
By the way, this was a huge deviation from the forecast. More than 70,000 new jobs were expected. We got 44,000. So, that was a significant backlog. But when I scroll down, I'm like, "Okay, where are these jobs?" Well, do you know where they are? " You have to scroll to the bottom." I think, "Okay, cool." Steeply.
Growth is seen among employers of all sizes, except those employing 20 to 49 people . This is great. "But let's look at the changes by industry." Let's see where these jobs are. Let's take a look. Not there. Not there. A little bit there. Okay, let's continue. Look, here it is. So I thought, "Oh, back to school?" Is this back to school?
"So the report we just looked at said the decline was due to the private sector, namely private education." And this one shows that it was education that ensured growth. I don't know, maybe I'm crazy, but this seems a bit contradictory. Even though these are different months. Now I wanted to be honest and compare what the layoffs looked like under Donald Trump compared to Joe Biden.
But before I do that, let's listen to what this young man has to say. Our economy has averaged over 100,000 jobs per month over the past 4 months, and real GDP growth has increased by 2.7% over the past four quarters. And let me tell you, these are jobs in the private sector. We cut government jobs.
So all the jobs we're creating now are well-paying jobs in the private sector. Private sector employment has increased by more than 900,000 jobs since inauguration. Tax breaks for working families provided the largest share of tax relief directly to millions of low- and middle- income Americans. So, now that we've listened to that, let's scroll down to this article below.
And this was published in Newsweek about 2 days ago. You guys see it right here. But look at this, friends. This is interesting. It's interesting because I'm like, okay, just give me the numbers. Okay, let's just look at the numbers. Who will win? Who won't win? Dismissal for Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden.
There it is, right here. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average number of layoffs per month during Biden's last 17 months in office was approximately 1.66 million. Oh, and here's the next part. During the first 17 months of Trump's second term, that number rose to about 1.75 million.
Layoffs were an average of 92,000 higher per month. Not in general. And per month during the analyzed period under Trump than during Biden's last months in office. At first I thought, yeah, that makes sense because of all the government layoffs and the fact that Biden was just printing money. You know , Mitch, I'm tired of talking about what scammers say and think.
So, can you explain to ordinary people how to fight fraud? And can you tell them about how advocacy, for example, fighting at the local level, can really change the entire society and the community in which people live, if they would just become more active in their municipalities, for example, in councils and committees?
Believe it or not, regarding Bess' statement, it proves my point, which is why I am not a fan of the press and I am not a fan of anyone talking about numbers unless the source of those numbers is immediately available. So, people talk about everything in the world. They can say whatever they want. This is a right under the First Amendment to the US Constitution.
The problem is that without a source, this statement in itself rings completely hollow to me . And this happens on both sides. Everyone says one thing in one camp, and other people say something else. It doesn't matter. The point is, if it's impossible to calculate and you don't know the source, and as Travis showed you, the source itself contradicts other sources.
How do you know the truth if you don't know where the data comes from? And as for the issue of fraud, if you don't know where the data comes from, there is a high probability that you are being misled. Is this intentional or due to ignorance? I do n't know. But the reality is that it is impossible to calculate.
And it's annoying because when I went through this process for Supreme Court documentation, every little thing had to be cited. You wouldn't believe how much effort went into creating a brochure in the format of the U.S. Supreme Court. If something was even 10 points different, it had to be corrected over and over again .
So they want everything to be perfect when they need it. But when we, ordinary people, ask for sources, well , we don't talk about it . This is part of the scam. And this is where the support of ordinary citizens becomes crucial. Because under no circumstances can you trust any politician. We have n't seen anyone who's telling the truth .
Again, could this be due to ignorance? Could this be intentional? I don't know and I don't care. The main thing is that this is not true. The point is that they are paid to tell the truth for the good of their society. If that doesn't happen, as we've seen in Travis' work with all these public information requests (ORRs), then that's exactly what regular people should be doing.
Because it's the only way to protect myself, and I'm going to up the ante a little. You understand that for example, in the Denton Appraisal District alone , if 500 people filed lawsuits, the district would go bankrupt. They have neither the manpower nor the money to handle it. If, say, a thousand ordinary families across the country followed the advocacy guidelines on Travis' website, you would be able to monitor the attorneys working for these municipalities, and I mean monitor.
You can turn them into puppets dancing on strings, because they won't stand it. And we proved it. This is what Travis's website is all about: a model of action needed with the help of ordinary people that is achievable. You must turn the tide against these criminals, because that is who they are. And as you saw at the beginning of this video, when Stephen Miller said, "But a lot of these people aren't going to prison." "Okay, bankrupt them." There are many ways to achieve your goal.
But you do it publicly, you do it on camera, through ORR requests, and it's all laid out in advocacy manuals. We now know what they do. We have evidence. They're on Travis' website. But now it's up to ordinary people to take the initiative into their own hands. You know, I want to try to motivate you regular families, and I want to show you something today, okay?
So, two achievements that Mitch made on his own during his human rights work, and one achievement that I made within my own. Some of you may know that I am pursuing a lawsuit against the chairman of my property appraisal board, and I am campaigning for accountability in the Montgomery Central Appraisal District.
So, this morning, when I went to the Montgomery Central Appraisal District website , I saw this little public notice. This hasn't been here before, friends. Notification of missing improvements. And that's the thing. I think I found—I know I found numerous breaches through open data requests, and now that they are being notified of the breach, why am I finding it out and not them?
Because it's their job. But in any case, they are forced to inform the public, and I can't wait to tell you more details about what exactly I learned. Essentially, they are admitting that they made mistakes , many mistakes, and will now begin notifying affected property owners. So of course I've sent another wave of open data requests, and I want to get all the details about this and find out who exactly these breaches were committed against .
I want a list of all the homeowners and all the details of this case. This is a big achievement for me because I've been working on this for about 13 months. And as I said, friends, I work from the bottom up. I fight like a lion in my own backyard, in my local markets, and teach as many people as possible who are willing to listen to me.
Mitch fights from the top, literally, as they say, from the top down. And I wanted to let you know that we're going to be releasing another video—so don't give them too much away, Mitch— where we're going to give you a detailed look at what's going on. But as of today, August 5, 2:29 p.m., Mitch's motion and petition were filed with the Supreme Court of the United States of America.
So if you want to follow this fight, please join. Like videos, write about what's happening in your markets, subscribe, share, do all of this and know that you are loved. And if you're just trying to understand what's going on—you, my friends, already know. We wish you success and hope you win.
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