Bitcoin Has Had A Bad 2018

요약 보기

2018년 10월 CNBC 방송으로, 비트코인 약세장과 암호화폐 제도 이슈를 다룬 패널 토론이다. 비트코인 전망: 한 출연자는 비트코인에 근본 가치가 없다고 보고 숏 포지션을 주장하며, 6000달러 아래로 밀리면 5950달러 목표치 이하로 더 떨어질 수 있다고 경고한다. 다른 출연자는 현재 바닥 형성 과정의 3~4회차 정도라고 본다. 비트코인 가치 논쟁: 거래 건수와 거래량이 화폐 가치를 결정한다는 논리로, Overstock·Subway·Starbucks 등의 결제 수용이 늘면 거래가 증가할 것이라 주장한다. 비트코인 가격이 과거 최고치에 다시 도달하지 못할 것이라는 견해는 납득하기 어렵다는 입장이다. 비트코인 캐시 대안론: 한 출연자는 상업적 사용성이 떨어진 비트코인 대신 비트코인 캐시가 투자 측면에서 가장 나은 선택이라고 본다. 다만 전 재산을 암호화폐에 넣지 말고 한 코인에 몰아두지 말라고 조언한다. 기관 자금 유입: 자산 보관, SEC 규제 등 인프라 문제가 해결되는 중이며, 기관 자금이 들어올 시점이 가까웠다고 본다. 3~6개월 내 연기금 등 대형 기관의 투자 신호가 나타날 것이라는 전망이다. 변동성은 2017년보다 낮아졌으며 주식 수준으로 낮아지면 2년 전과 같은 성장이 가능하다고 본다. 규제 리스크: 미국은 암호화폐 경쟁력에서 뒤처지고 있으며 아시아가 더 활발하다는 우려가 제기된다. 증권성 판단 기준이 불명확한 것이 가장 큰 과제이며, 대부분의 자산은 증권이 아니므로 SEC의 제안처럼 규제해서는 안 된다는 입장이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Why do I want to open a short position? Because it's Bitcoin. It has no fundamental value. We are in the middle of the process of debunking this colossal bubble. And I think the only thing people with a long position can count on is hope. And, Jackie, we know that hope is a terrible strategy. What he says about Bitcoin going to zero is madness.

02. You know, the 5950 target—if we break through the 6000 level, I would definitely be worried that we would go lower and sink even further below that target. This worries me a little , but I think we are now somewhere in the third or fourth inning of the bottoming process after the bubble collapse that Scott was talking about.

03. When you look at the value of a currency, it's about the number of transactions and their volume. And when we have Overstock.com accepting Bitcoin, when chains like Subway, Starbucks start accepting Bitcoin, maybe McDonald's will join in too, the number of transactions will increase over the next year or so.

04. It amazes me that people think that the coin will never be able to reach its historical highs. I mean, remember, there aren't even 50 million wallets using crypto today. Um, there are 4.5 billion Visa cards. So this is just the beginning for crypto and I don't think 20,000 will be a problem in the future.

05. Bitcoin is no more— or at least it wasn't commercially viable last December. Commissions became high, transactions became slow and unreliable, and people like me and everyone else who tried to use it for commerce stopped and moved on to something else . And that “something else” is likely to be Bitcoin Cash for most people, and it’s very clear that all the implementations, vendors, and all sorts of businesses are now being built on Bitcoin Cash.

06. So, looking ahead, I believe Bitcoin Cash is the best option from an investment perspective, but I don't recommend anyone put all their investments into cryptocurrency, and I don't recommend putting all of their crypto investments into one coin. So, Roger, what does your crypto portfolio look like now ?

07. I hold more Bitcoin Cash than anything else, but I have some Ether, Zcash, Dcoin, Monero, Dash, and let's not forget BTC too. The crazy euphoria of November and December, we are way ahead of the curve with this crazy, tulip- fever-like surge. Everyone understands this. Now, in my opinion, all the necessary infrastructure is being created for institutional investors to come into cryptocurrencies.

08. All these unresolved issues around asset custody, how to deal with SEC regulatory requirements and other investment laws in the US are being worked out now, and my prediction is: when institutional money starts flowing into the crypto space, get ready. Of course? This doesn't require much effort as it is still a relatively new asset class.

09. When was the last time a new asset class emerged on planet Earth? I can say based on my own observations: institutional players are starting to move a little. This took a lot longer than I expected. I'm already a little blue, holding my breath waiting for them to arrive, but the process begins. If we look at the volatility, that is, the fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin up and down, we see that it has indeed decreased.

10. Last year, a year ago, it traded twice as actively, changing in price twice as fast as it does now. And if we recall 2016, the level of volatility was actually on par with investments in the stock market. I think if we continue to see volatility decline to common stock levels, people will support Bitcoin and you will see the same growth as 2 years ago.

11. You see a lot of activity in the private markets. In fact, the coin market was in a full-blown bearish trend, a catastrophic decline, but in the private sector you would n't even notice it. There was a "bull" market. It was a boom period for attracting talent. And also a bull market for institutions building the infrastructure needed for large investors to start investing in coins.

12. Therefore, I believe that in 3–6 months there will be a clear signal for large institutions and pension funds to start investing. My biggest concern is that the US is losing competitiveness . I've spent the last year traveling the world and I can say that the US is already lagging behind. I don't think it's fatal, but we're already behind.

13. In Asia, implementation is much more active. What's interesting is what you see here and what we noticed in the Coinbase announcement: they both suffer from a lack of clarity in US law. And we have difficulty determining whether something is a security or not. So I think that's our first challenge now, to get some clarity, because once you determine whether something is a security, you can figure out all the relevant rules and regulations that apply.

14. For us, you know, we, and I think the entire group at today's roundtable, see most of these assets as not being securities and they shouldn't be regulated in the same way that the SEC is proposing.