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nice to meet you. It is an eye patch. Today, I would like to briefly speak about the plummeting stock market . Ah, the stock market is at an all-time high, you know. But how can this be called a crash? Let me explain that to you . First of all, regarding this year, or YTD, from January 1, 2026, up to today, you can consider each ETF as being separate.
yes. This is the return of that ETF. As expected, QQQ... uh, Q is number one again. And now, MAGS is about 10%. This is the Mag M7. It's M7, Spy is 12%, and Dow Jones DIIA; this is the Dow Jones with 30 stocks. Regarding this, the ETF is 6.3% and 3%, and Shud is better than expected. Shud is 19%, and if you consider the odds, but even with the odds, AmaQ will likely be in first place again .
Actually, I mentioned earlier that the market had crashed, but I was the one who predicted that day. This is called the S&P 500 heatmap, and big companies have very large shorelines, you know. So, when the market capitalization of the SP 500 itself increases, it holds a lot of large stocks. If you look at companies like Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Google, you can see why their stocks are currently rising—or to be precise, why the indices, such as the SP 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones indices, are going up.
To explain the theory, the stock market rose because companies with large market capitalizations went up significantly . But on the other hand, it is called equal weighting . So, SMP 500 means there are 500 companies. Uh, you can consider the fact that all 500 of them were purchased using the same criteria as the "same standard heat map." There are 500 of these right now, but if you look, there aren't many correct ones .
Yes, well, Microsoft has gone up a bit. And Nvidia went up. This is Micron. Micron, AMD, CrowdTrike, Intel, Qualcomm, Dell, and things like that actually went up a bit . The rest of the stocks are practically all wrecked right now. This is the S&P 500 index, you know. Looking at the index, it is practically at a new high right now.
yes. Jisu is incredibly solid. It's not falling, but the 20-day moving average EMA. Uh, right. It's something like a moving average, but anyway, the 20-day moving average is the line closest to the price. So, it is the line closest to the stock price, and generally, when a stock is above the 20-day moving average, we say that the stock is bullish.
The 200-day moving average is right. The 200-day line theory is an absolute support line, and usually, when the stock price is touching the 200-day line, it means the price is touching the 200-day line when it has fallen by almost 30% to 40% from its peak . So, the reason we usually say to buy blue-chip stocks at the 200-day moving average is to buy the stock when it has dropped enough to touch the 200-day moving average.
So, if it is below the 200-day moving average, you can consider it to be practically cut in half compared to the peak . So, the stock that has been cut in half below the 200-day moving average is currently at 55%, and it is only at the 20-day moving average. The fact is that the number of stocks that appear high and strong is only 26%.
The percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average is 29.6%, and 70% of total contracts are trading below the 50-day moving average, indicating a weakened market . So, usually, when we say that an index has reached a new high, it means that the prices of many stocks have risen significantly, but in reality, the proportion of stocks above the 50-day moving average is only 30%.
But what could be the cause of this? If you look at it, it ultimately comes down to interest rates. Interest rates. So, you all think that now that interest rates have risen, SPY will fall, but the problem is that SPY won't fall. SPY is n't missing, but the companies within it are all in a state of total collapse right now, just like in this picture.
So, regarding actual interest rates right now, when we talk about risk play, we usually use the 10-year Treasury yield. Because of the impact of interest rates, nearly 70% of stocks in the market are performing very poorly. So that's it, right? PepsiCo. PepsiCo is a blue-chip stock, you know. There is nothing to say about McDonald's.
If you look at things like Nike, it is currently -1% this year. As we saw earlier, SPY has still risen 13% this year . But well, there are PepsiCo, McDonald's, Nike, and Tabi 500s, you know. Nevertheless, stock prices have been terrible this year. McDonald's, for example, has dropped by 23% . Nike was also cut in half .
But it’s not necessarily like that; you know, there’s the Goldman box. This is a financial stock, you know. Financial stocks have dropped 1.3% year-to-date this year. If you had bought these stocks this year, you would definitely be using them. And regarding this, there is the Isa Corporation, and now there is a company called FICO, which is a real blue-chip stock that creates mortgage and personal scores .
It is practically a monopoly, but even its stock price has dropped 65% this year . yes. So, it is a financial services company, and its stock price had been steadily trending upwards. It went up to nearly $2,000, but now it has dropped to almost $600. And this is Amex. Ameca Express is a place that makes cards, you know.
The stock price here is also down 8% this year. Stocks have n't really gone up this year. The index went up 20%, you know. If you look at it. So, I suppose you understand a little bit why I kept talking only about QQQ. So, you don't need to study stocks, and there is nothing for you to know. yes. On the contrary, if you had dabbled in stocks or bought blue-chip stocks, it means you are all currently in the red .
hmm. If you look at this, it's probably around June. Since the second quarter, the M7 stock has risen significantly. But since the stock market has risen significantly after the second quarter, if you wanted to beat the QQ this year, first of all, in the first half, regarding semiconductors— not Nvidia, for that matter.
You should have made big profits with memory semiconductors and companies like Intel and AMD, and switched to companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Apple when the second quarter started; then you would have beaten the market. So, well, everyone, B-Rackney is a really famous phone cancellation manager.
It is almost 9% for Witches this year . Yes. This person has also bought a lot of Big Tech stocks, and they are partnering with Uber . Both are blue-chip stocks. Uh, but I bought that, and right now, it's at 9%. So, this year has been absolute chaos, and in this market trend, unless it is about 30 or 50 stocks out of the SP 500, the rest of the companies have n't made any money.
When I looked at it a year ago, I bought it sometime a year ago and it's all gone now . But the market pantograph index has gone up 22% now. So, just how truly heartbreaking is this ? Uh, if an individual had just picked stocks and bought them, almost no one would have made money this year . hmm. basic.
I always tell you that you don't even need to specifically choose a stock . You just need to buy QQ . I've been telling you all along that the best cue among all of them is just a QQ, so you should just buy a QQ cue . So, in this current era, we have capital and labor, but it is becoming an era where the value of labor is continuously declining .
Actually, since we live in an era where technology is the most important thing, I think that things based on technology are bound to continue doing well. yes. In particular, since semiconductors performed well this year and those funds are now flowing back toward M7, I believe this trend will continue to strengthen.
I think that by next year, we might see a counterattack from M7 and foundation model stocks . So, even though the market keeps rising, people keep saying that stocks will crash, but stocks have already crashed . Uh, everyone, do you think the market doesn't know what you already know? Yes, absolutely not.
Yes, the market knows everything . Basically, in the case of Big Tech companies, they issued a massive amount of bonds between June and August of this year . It is shaking up global bonds by surging large-scale bond issuances . In particular, companies like Google have issued a massive amount of bonds.
The blackout was the same, and they even did a bereavement test. But they raised the capital in advance . I think they knew a few months ago that long-term interest rates would rise more here. People ask how we would know such things, but if they possessed all the information and even used it to create artificial intelligence, would they not know macroeconomics?
yes. I think thinking that way is even more foolish . But even though they knew that money would become scarce due to rising interest rates, they pulled that money in to invest in AI infrastructure . Uh, regarding this, you guys think these hyper-skillers are even dumber. You might think, "I don't know." yes.
It is possible, and conversely, those guys know something. You might think that I know more than you do, but personally, I think it is the latter . yes. And what's really interesting is that while semiconductor stocks were strong in the first half of the year, the stock prices of these big tech companies have remained solid in the second half and are n't falling.
It has risen to 5% now. But in the market, for other companies, the stock prices have already been tossed down . yes. Even with beer, 30% of things like this had already dropped, you know. It must be one of them. If interest rates are maintained at this level, well, the market could clearly have been wrong about the AI.
Or you might be wrong . You might be missing something that the market is seeing . But well, in the end, we have to place a bet here. yes. You have to place a bet, so I suppose you could bet on interest rates . Interest rates could rise further or fall. Now, it is possible to place bets like this, but of course, I fully believe that if short-term interest rates rise more than they are now, Big Tech could eventually fall as well .
But I actually think that interest rates might have peaked a bit here . The stock setup is clear right now; it is the Invesco SP 500-Weighted ETF. So, they bought all 500 companies with the same weight of 0.25% each . So, if it's 0.2% at a time, if you look at the current chart of that ETF, it has this kind of structure.
yes. It was in a position where it could rebound again after resisting the support line here. Of course, I could break this and go back down. I'm not entirely sure about that, but I think that ultimately, if interest rates drop just a little further, stocks could surge significantly . So, ultimately, if you want to look for a hint, the stocks whose profits are most sensitive to interest rates are bank stocks .
These are bank stocks, and even though interest rates are currently skyrocketing, I believe that bank stocks falling from their peaks tend to slightly lead interest rates . Of course, interest rates could remain unchanged, and bank stocks could plummet as the real economy crumbles . yes. I do not know that.
So, ultimately, I think either the economy or interest rates will collapse—one of the two. Well, interest rates will hold first, but if the economy holds, stock prices will rise significantly from here. Conversely, if the economy collapses, stock prices will likely drop . If it falls, interest rates will also collapse along with the economy anyway.
Then, I think that if that happens, it will eventually hit bottom again and have no choice but to rise. So in the end, this is basically a 50/50 game, isn't it? If we look at what we should do, ultimately, I believe we just need to play a favorable game and remain in an advantageous position within the current structure of the capital market and economy .
Uh, from my perspective right now, I think the one in the most advantageous position is just Q. yes. It all comes back to QQ in the end, but ultimately, I believe the QQ ETF represents the fact that, among capital, labor, and technology, technology is the most important right now. Since it gathers 100 of the most powerful tech companies at the forefront of technology, aren't these the companies at the very top of the value chain in the current economic scale and structure?
yes. I think so. Of course, you all say that the economy is going to collapse. I don't think keeping a little cash on hand is a bad choice because it can break . Well, I have about 9 in stocks and 10 in cash, but for those who are really short on cash, I think it is not a bad idea to secure up to 10% to 15% .
However, I do think it is a bit of a bad idea to tell people to sell all their stocks just because the market is going to crash. The stock market has already plummeted. The market has already plummeted tremendously. Yes, the weight of stocks showing strength right now is only about 26% . The remaining nearly 55% of stocks have very poor stock prices.
That is ultimately due to long-term government bond yields . yes. Interest rates have already been fully reflected in the market. But looking at how bank stocks, which tend to be a leading indicator of interest rates, are currently falling from their peaks, I think that ultimately, either the economy collapses first and interest rates fall, or interest rates just drop; it seems like it will all end up being a single trend.
Also, I think Nasta QQ will probably be up again around this time next year . yes. It has risen by about 22% this year as well, so there is still some time left. So, I think it will hit 25% or 30% this year, and while a crash is certainly possible next year, I suspect it will rebound sharply after the crash to hit 25% or 30% again.
That is why I continue to think that in the case of the QQQ, based on the M level, is it currently around 30,000? Is it around 31,000 or 30,900? In the end, I think it's bound to go over 100,000. As for what we have to do, I really like this picture . I think that almost 90% or more of your investors are here, right in the middle .
So, statistically speaking, the people in the middle right now could not earn money . In the case of this year's market, or because returns are lower than the market, I believe it is absolutely not wise to fall into the middle right now. Given that even a top-tier fund manager like Vie Rackman is hitting the red, yes, you probably don't have any tremendous insights .
Most of them. yes. That is why I believe the easiest, most comfortable, and most profitable method is to buy QQQ and hold cash, adding QQQ when the price drops. Once again, I sincerely thank everyone who signed up for the membership . yes. That's all.
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