저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금·은 등 귀금속이 금리 상승과 유가 상승 속에서도 견조하며 매수 기회라고 주장. 유가는 중동 긴장으로 90달러 이상이고 100달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 미 10년물 금리 4.7%대, 30년물 5.16%로 고점 경신을 강조하며 국가부채 확대와 AI 버블 붕괴 우려를 제기. 일본 엔화 약세(163.8엔)와 일본 국채금리 상승이 미국 금융위기의 촉매가 될 수 있다고 경고하고, 연준은 결국 국채를 매입·통화를 찍어낼 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
Gold and silver, precious metals, had a good week. Gold rose by about 1% . Nothing spectacular, but gold rose 1 %, even though bond yields rose significantly. And even though oil prices have increased significantly. Now you might say, well, yeah, rising oil prices, you know, should be good for gold , because gold and oil should be correlated.
But recently they have not been correlated. Ever since the war broke out, the Iran war, there has been a divergence. Everything was the opposite. Gold and oil moved in opposite directions. And I said that eventually that would change. And oil and gold will move in the same direction. And perhaps it's already happening.
We didn't have much movement in gold this week. But we had a big movement of oil. But gold did not fall. And the fact that it didn't fall, and even managed to grow, in my opinion, shows that this is happening. And this is very important for investors in precious metals. And look what happened. Silver rose 2.4% for the week.
Still minus 20% per year. Gold has barely gone down, uh, in a year. No, no, no, I'm sorry. It decreased by about 7% per year. But considering the huge gains both metals had in 2025, this isn't that big of a drop, but enough to create a buying opportunity. And in fact, many people were scared that the war would be "bearish" for gold, that rising interest rates would be "bearish" for gold.
And they are wrong. In fact, they are " bullish" on gold. Shares of Google, Alphabet, fell 10% in a week. Almost all of this drop, I think, happened on Thursday, the day the announcement came out. Now, Alphabet is still holding onto 1% growth in 2026, but that's not much considering all the money they're currently spending and planning to spend on capital expenditures.
Take a look at Oracle. Oracle fell almost 8% in a week. They are another big spender, 7.9% it seems, to be exact. But these stocks are now down 41% year-to-date. SpaceX this week, and I've talked about SpaceX since before the SpaceX IPO, but this is another company that's involved in artificial intelligence, mainly through XAI.
But SpaceX fell another 7.7% this week on top of its previous losses. SpaceX barely held on to the 115 mark. They closed at $115. This is 15% below the IPO price of $135. But even more striking is the drop from the peak, because this stock, I think, 3 days after the IPO, was trading above 225. Now it is 49% below that high.
And, by the way, not only did SpaceX do well this week, but Tesla also had a few bad days. And again, I think it has to do with the spending they're putting into AI. Peter Schiff warns: the AI bubble is bursting. Oracle fell 41%, SpaceX 49% below highs. Gold is preparing for a serious move. Miners have five-fold leverage .
Bond yields are at 20-year highs. 30-year-olds— 5.16%. National debt is $39.6 trillion, four times higher than the 2006 level. The crisis in Japan as a catalyst, the yen is at a 40- year low. In any case, Japan's problems will spill over to the United States. The Fed is forced to print money. Gold and silver are a buying opportunity.
Let's start with oil. Oil had a tough week. It closed the week above $90 per barrel. $90.40. Oil prices continue to rise due to rhetoric in the Middle East, particularly related to Iran, the Strait and everything that is happening there. Oil prices are now up 30% in July, and we still have a week to go.
We can reach 100 by the end of the month. We'll see. But 90 is already a pretty high price, if you remember. I talked about this and warned about it on my podcast when the June CPI came out , which the markets cheered. We saw a rally based on the fact that CPI fell more than expected in June. It seems to have been 4 tenths of a percent versus the expected one tenth.
What led to the decline was energy. Energy prices fell by more than 20% in a month, and that was the reason, actually the only real reason, why we got such a big drop. But people thought, “Okay, the Fed won’t have to raise rates; " Inflation is decreasing on an annual basis." Despite that, it was still 3.5%, but I warned that it was too early to celebrate the drop in oil prices, especially the one that was related to that memorandum of understanding, which, you know, was worthless, and I was right.
The price of oil is higher today than it was at the close in late May. May closed just above 87 . Now it's above 90. So in June and July combined, oil went up in those two months. She didn't fall. So the July CPI, which we'll get sometime in August, forgot the date, will show more growth than we had a decline.
So, overall, CPI indicators are increasing year-on-year . So Wall Street should be prepared for negative readings in this report. Now, perhaps even more important are bond prices. Bond yields reached new highs during this period. So, new highs after the start of the Iran war . Although oil has not yet reached a new peak, it could still rise to exceed the high since the start of the war.
But oil prices and bonds, bond yields , had a positive correlation. However, bonds are now falling even faster than oil is rising . The yield on 10- year Treasury bonds reached 4.68, or even higher. I saw a mark of 4.71, maybe 4.72. The week ended at 4.78. Sorry, 4.68, but that's close to the highs of the week.
And again, these are highs since the beginning of the war, exceeding the peak on Liberation Day. This has sinister consequences. This is not the highest in 20 or 30 years, because a couple of years ago we had slightly higher values for 10-year bonds, but this record will be broken. I forgot what the maximum was.
Probably something around 4.7. I don't know if it was 4.8, but look at the 30- year bond, because it's even more important than the 10-year because it takes into account another 20 years of inflation expectations and additional risks. The 30-year bond yield closed at 5.16%. This is the maximum in 20 years.
This is the highest 30-year bond yield since 2006. The highest I saw during the week was 5.16%. It seems so. No, 5.19. I don't know if they were trading at 5.2. They should get to it next week, probably by Monday. But it is very significant. I mean the US national debt , which is now over 39.6 trillion, heading towards 40 trillion and will reach 50 trillion within a few years, because the US is heading towards a financial crisis.
Our deficits are getting out of control. The market is losing its appetite and desire to finance this debt. That's why they charge higher interest rates. But higher interest rates weaken the economy. Higher interest rates cause the budget deficit to increase because it means the government has to spend more money it doesn't have to pay interest on the debt.
So as interest rates go up, it causes a bigger deficit, which forces rates to go up even more, because the bigger the deficit, the more investors fear that the Fed will have to create inflation to service it, which means you don't want to own debt because it will be devalued. So, we get into this vicious circle.
But another crisis that could happen first would be in Japan, because Japan has a similar problem. It's not identical to the United States, and in many cases, you know, our problem is worse on the surface. People may not realize this because Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is higher. But this is only one aspect.
There are many other aspects that actually play against the United States, but in terms of timing, we may see a Japanese crisis sooner. In fact, the Japanese crisis could be the catalyst for our crisis. This could be the needle that pierces our bubble. After bursting, the Japanese bubble eventually punctured an even larger American bubble.
In fact, if you look at currencies, the Japanese yen fell to 163.8. against the US dollar. This is the lowest exchange rate for the Japanese yen in 40 years. The last time the yen was this low, when $1 could buy that many yen, was in 1986. Now Japanese government bond yields are also rising. And I talked about it.
I warned about this before this movement even started. I remember when the Japanese government set a limit on 10- year bonds at half a percent, 50 basis points. And I said that there was no way they would be able to maintain this limit. I said the yield would increase to 1%, then 2%, then 2.5% , then 3%.
Well, now we are at 2.8%. This is the highest since 1996. It's been 30 years since Japan was forced to pay 2.8% on 10-year bonds. But, of course, 30 years ago, Japan had almost no debt. All of this debt was accumulated based on a senseless policy of artificially restraining the yen and attempting to create inflation with the theory that this would help exports by weakening the yen and artificially keeping interest rates low.
They can export more to the United States. Well, that strategy completely failed , and I'll get to that in a minute. I want to continue talking about the Japanese government bond market. The yield on 30- year Japanese bonds is now almost 4%. This is truly unheard of in Japanese history. This is the highest profitability in history.
We closed at 3.98%. The reason this isn't a 30-year high is because Japan didn't even issue 30-year government bonds 30 years ago. They only started producing them in 1999. And this is the highest rate for these bonds since the beginning. The reason this is so problematic for Japan is the sheer size of their debt.
Their debt- to-GDP ratio exceeds 200%. And they currently have an annual budget deficit of about 2% of GDP. Despite all this, and despite the weakness of the yen—and the reason the yen is weak is that the discount rate in Japan, the equivalent of our Fed rate, is still 1%. 1%—they barely raised interest rates.
That's where the crisis is brewing, because either we will soon see a significant increase in the discount rate. They will have to raise the rate, perhaps to 3%. I don't even know if 3% is enough, but it would be a start. If they raise it to just 1.25% or 1.5%, they will only add fuel to the fire. So, either they will act aggressively and a crisis will start in Japan that will spill over into the US, or they will be too indecisive and we will get a different kind of crisis that will spill over into us as well.
As part of the Japanese government's correct actions, it's not just Japanese investors who will start selling US assets, including Treasury bonds. The Japanese government holds over $1.1 trillion in Treasury bonds . The Japanese government is the largest holder of US Treasury bonds in the world . So if the Japanese government is doing the right thing, one of the things they need to do to support the yen is to pay down some of their debt.
But how will they pay off their own debt? By selling our debt. And this will also help the yen . They will lose the income they receive from US government bonds. But it's not that much. In fact, if Japanese bonds go up, they can get the same income from these bonds, right? As these bonds mature , they earn higher yields.
So it would be a win for the Japanese to get rid of our bonds. Well, it will be a huge loss for us when that happens. So the stock market here could collapse, as could the bond market and the economy. We could get a financial crisis that starts in Japan. Maybe the Japanese will do the wrong thing . Maybe they'll just leave interest rates unchanged.
Or the Bank of Japan will raise them to just one, you know, one and a quarter percent. This will not be enough. This could lead to a collapse of the yen. Of course, this won't pull the dollar down instantly, but it will collapse the Japanese bond market, which will affect the US bond market and the Japanese stock market.
And if that happens, massive capital returns and large margin calls will begin. The Japanese will start selling assets around the world, especially in the US, where they have a lot of them. So in any case, we could have big problems in the US . And what will the Fed do? It is clear that they will not raise rates.
In any case, especially if the dollar strengthens due to the yen's decline, or even if it weakens, they will have to support the market. They will have to buy up all the Treasury bonds that the Japanese and everyone else are dumping. So we will have a crisis in any case . Whether or not Japan does the right thing, this is a problem for Japan, and it will ultimately become an even bigger problem for us.
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