저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금과 은이 역사적 지지선(금 4000달러, 은 50달러 부근)에서 바닥을 다지고 있으며 재상승할 것이라 주장. 연준의 금리인상은 인플레이션을 따라잡지 못해 실질금리가 낮고, 국가부채 이자 부담 증가로 채권위기가 임박했다고 봄. 금광주가 실물금보다 저평가됐다고 보고 광산주 비중이 크다고 밝힘. 유가 상승도 결국 연준 완화로 이어져 금에 우호적이라 봄.
다듬은 글
I believe $50 is a support level as it has been a resistance that has held back the market since 1980-81. It acted as a very significant resistance in 2011. And even when gold initially rose from 2,000 to 4,000, silver still couldn't break through that mark. It was only when gold finally made that rally from $4,000 to $5,000 that silver suddenly jumped from $30 to $125.
It was a real explosion and breakthrough. It is quite logical that such parabolic growth was not sustainable, and we saw a pullback. This pullback turned out to be even bigger than I expected when we were trading at those levels. But I didn't think it was impossible. And I think anything below $60 is, frankly , a bottom right now.
I think 50 is probably the new 20 for silver. And we are going much higher. So, this was a bigger correction than what we saw in gold. But silver still looks cheap to me relative to gold. Even though it's not as cheap as it used to be. You know, at one point the ratio was 100 to 1. It was over 100 to 1 when gold was at its peak and silver was still below 30.
It was at 20 and just above 20. I think the markets were surprised by the higher-than- expected inflation data, which intuitively should have been favorable for gold. But this forced the Fed to change market expectations from lowering rates to raising them. And, in fact, the Fed implemented its first quarter- point hike at a recent meeting.
It was fears of tighter Fed policy and higher rates that caused gold to lose the gains from that rebound. But I think we are now testing and forming strong support around the 4000 level, which is where gold initially fell after hitting a new all-time high around 5600. The gold market has dropped back down just below 4000.
It seems to have traded below 4000 for maybe a day, maybe two at most, before recovering. And this time it did n't even drop below 4000 . It was below 4,100, but still held at the four thousand level. So, I think gold is getting ready for another big move up once the markets realize that these rate hikes mean nothing and that they won't be a drag on gold because they are much smaller than the inflation increase, the unpredictable inflation.
In fact, inflation has already risen much more than the Fed is even considering raising rates. So, the real rates are actually much lower than the market expected, so the price of gold should be much higher. The US government will not be able to service the huge debt it accumulated when rates were at zero.
Now rates are at five percent, but another important factor is that 20 years ago Treasury yields were five percent and mortgage rates were seven and a half percent when they were falling. They are now at the same level, but during growth. That's a big difference, because even if you took out a mortgage at seven and a half percent 20 years ago, you had the option to refinance it at six and a half, five and a half, four and a half, three, two and a half.
Uh, the stakes are rising again now. They ...no one is refinancing. They ...it's going to go...they're going to go to eight and a half, nine and a half, 10, 11. In 1981, mortgage rates were at 18%. So, they fell for 40 years. Now they will grow, maybe for the same number of years, I don't know, or at least half as long.
And it's only been six years since we started raising rates. Uh , Treasury bonds were at 14%, and then they fell to half a percent . So, now we are at 5%. But 5% is still pretty cheap money. They're just not that cheap when you owe so much. But the yield will reach 6%, then 7%, then 8%. So, the problem will get bigger and bigger.
Just like the debt account. By the end of next year, we will be paying $2 trillion a year in interest on the national debt. But if rates rise to 8% and the national debt is 50 trillion in two or three years, which is inevitable, we could be spending 4 trillion a year on interest on the national debt.
That is, this is 80% of tax revenues. And if we were to spend $4 trillion a year on interest, that would mean that the total budget deficit would be about six or seven trillion. Because we would have to borrow all this money . We don't have them. So can we survive with such a huge annual budget deficit?
No. So, somewhere between now and then, right now, we're going to have a bond crisis. And it could happen in a few weeks. It may happen in a few months. Well, you know, there are different types of investments. I view gold, physical gold and silver as money, simply as a store of value. They are not investments as such .
It's just a way to preserve your purchasing power. I believe that gold and silver mining companies, both for an investor and for an investor in the stock market, are undervalued because investors simply do not understand how much higher the price of gold and silver will be in the future and how much these companies will earn not only from mining, but also from how much more valuable their reserves will become at significantly higher metal prices.
That's why I own far more shares of mining companies than just physical metal, because I believe I'm getting a much better deal on gold that's still in the ground than buying already mined gold, given that my forecast doesn't quite match the generally accepted view of future gold prices. I see a real dollar crisis, a national debt crisis, much higher prices.
Meanwhile, you know, gold mining stocks are earning much more now than they did a few years ago, even though the price of gold has rebounded. Look where she is now. And even though oil prices are high in dollar terms, over $90 per barrel, when gold is over $4,000 per ounce, this is a very cheap gold-to-oil ratio historically.
And oil, as we know, is a significant component of production costs. But since the price of gold has risen more than the price of oil, it's a great situation for these gold mining companies. And I think gold prices will go up significantly. I believe the price of gold will outpace the price of oil. In fact, I think both will grow.
So, I think oil prices will go up. And in the short term, rising oil prices have once again become a headwind for gold, as markets have taken this as a signal for tighter Fed policy. But ultimately, higher oil prices will mean a loosening of Fed policy, as the Fed will respond to these higher prices with a larger budget deficit and broader quantitative easing.
And this will be a stimulus for gold growth. We are facing higher inflation as a result not of rising oil prices, but of the monetary policy that the Fed will pursue due to this rising oil price. Well, I believe that it is the misunderstanding of what rising bond yields mean that is currently a deterrent to gold.
But this misconception will someday be dispelled. You know, if you look at the CPI, as you pointed out, it's an imperfect indicator because it underestimates what's really happening. But so far in 2026, in the first 9 months, the CPI has increased by 4%. It grew by 2.9% for the entire year of 2024, which was Biden's last year.
In 2023, Biden's penultimate year, the figure was 3.4%. So we've already exceeded both of those years, with three more months to go. I think when we get data for the next 3 months, we will see the CPI for 2026 at five percent. So, based on this, the Fed rate will still end the year in negative territory.
This is not , you know, a contractionary monetary policy . This is an extremely soft policy. And in general, the highest inflation in any calendar year under Biden was 7% in 2021. I think there is a high probability that in 2027 it will exceed seven percent. But I doubt the Fed rate will be much higher than five.
So the negative returns will only increase. Which creates even greater incentive to avoid losses by buying gold. So, instead of being a drag on gold, I believe rising bond yields will be a driving force as they won't rise enough to offset losses from inflation. In fact, as rates rise and the US national debt matures and needs to be refinanced, there is this pressure on the cost of debt service .
The latest government figures showed that the annual amount of interest on the national debt is now 1.4 trillion. But this figure is growing every month. And, you know, sometime next year it will reach 2 trillion, which means it will become bigger than Social Security spending. Social Security is now 1.7 trillion.
Of course, this figure will also increase next year. But interest on the national debt is now the second largest government expenditure item, yet it is growing the fastest. So at some point, the Fed will have to not only stop raising rates , but actually expand its quantitative easing program, because there won't be enough private buyers for negative- yielding Treasury bonds.
Well, I think one of the things is that you have to see the dollar really lose value relative to other fiat currencies. So, if you see the dollar weakening against the euro, pound, or yen, that would be one indicator. Another indicator will be the point at which the gold market begins to respond to higher- than-expected inflation rates by rising rather than falling.
Or when you see the bond market go up when interest rates go up, rather than down, because that would be a clear signal that the markets are starting to get the point: traders are realizing that higher inflation numbers aren't just a signal that the Fed will have to fight inflation harder. They confirm that the Fed has already lost the battle against inflation.
That inflation won. That the Fed can't fight hard enough to overcome it. That's the problem. This is the true reality, but the markets still don't understand it. They see, "Oh, inflation is higher than we thought. Oh, the Fed just needs to act more aggressively." But they can't. They have cornered themselves .
Look, Warsh has been leading the Fed for 5 months, and during those 5 months, inflation rates have gradually worsened. However, we only received a rate increase of 125 basis points. That's all. Meanwhile, the balance sheet is now larger than it was 5 months ago when he took office , and the M2 money supply is growing at an annual rate of 6%.
This is an extremely loyal Fed. They...are not the same Fed that fights inflation. So, despite what Warsh said, which scared the gold market about his determination and that the Fed would do everything it could to reduce inflation, so far it has only been pushing inflation up. So forget what they say .
Look at what they do. There is no such policy that would receive political support. The right policy is unpopular, so it will never be adopted. So, we will just postpone the problems for as long as we can, until a crisis erupts. And this will be a real crisis, where there will be no bailouts, like in 2008.
So, we're in for a real crisis, we're going to destroy the value of the currency, we're going to see prices skyrocket, and then we're probably going to face shortages and rationing because the government is probably going to impose price controls. So the situation will become very complicated. So the question is, can we do the right thing after all this: in the face of social unrest, food shortages, power outages, riots, and all the other turmoil?
Well, we do n't lose anything if we do the right thing, because it can't get any worse, right? The worst has already happened. And all the current leaders will most likely not be elected to the next term anyway. So maybe then we'll do everything right. Although, on the other hand, it speaks to the optimist in me .
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