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Hey everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host Tony Edward, on your way in please hit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating and review.
Folks, we of course have to talk about Bitcoin in the market because Bitcoin pulled back to below $114,000. It is currently trading at $113,715. So this has some people a bit worried. But folks, as we've been monitoring and highlighting Bitcoin and all coins and the total market cap were all in the overbought zone, even the stock market, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.
So this pullback is natural and healthy. Now there's narratives out there. People are going to say tariffs and this and that and whatever. And maybe it all is timed together. But the point is based on the markets and what we've seen historically, if you simply look at pattern recognition on the charts, you will see it.
So using the RSI, we have been escaping that overbought zone. And I like what I'm seeing Bitcoin right now at a 40 on the RSI. Many of you know 30 and below is oversold. So I don't know if we're going to head all the way down to the oversold. Well, maybe we go down and touch it a bit and then we bounce out of there.
But folks, I believe this is a healthy pullback and it's going to set us up for the next major rally, which is going to happen this month. Obviously, we're talking about August, today's August 1st. So be prepared for that, folks. And remember the macro thesis. So once again, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ also in the overbought zone, also correcting.
We're seeing red on the charts, very healthy. Total three, which excludes Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins also was in the overbought zone, very overheated, actually. And now coming down, everything following Bitcoin. And as I shared in today's newsletter, there were some CME gap points that are being filled.
$115K, $114,300. So could we go a little bit lower? It's possible. If the RSI goes down and touches the oversold zone, Bitcoin could go to $110K. And there are still key support levels like $109,000, $106,000, which still support the bull market thesis. So again, no invalidation of the bull market here.
And I believe this is simply a bullish retest and then I think we see a bounce in August going to new all-time highs and global liquidity continues to be the leading indicator here. Now, over the month of July, we saw incredible inflows into crypto ETFs. Here, Eric Bell, Chinese of Bloomberg, highlighted that US crypto ETFs took in $12.8 billion in July, the best month ever.
That's incredible. A $600 million per day pays about double the average. As a group, that's more than any single ETF did, even the mighty VOO. Further, every ETF in category took in cash. Example, the converted trust with Bitcoin and Ethereum making equal contributions. So this is awesome. It's incredible the amount of buying that's happening and smart money is loading up because they are anticipating higher prices.
And even on-chain data, I've often shared this with you guys, on-chain data from sentiment showing that whales with 10 or more Bitcoin in wallets are continuing to accumulate. So all the signals are there that further upside is coming and we just got to be patient and go through the volatility. We got to expect volatility.
That's part of the markets, right? So this is the time to be patient, exercise your patience and understand the cycles that are playing out here. Now today, the jobs numbers came in and they were adjusted and they were actually worse than people anticipated. And some of the June numbers and so forth were updated and it showed lower job numbers.
So things are not looking too good. And what we saw with the CME FedWatch tool anticipating ray cuts that may come in September, they spiked up to 81.9% from 37%. So after Jerome Powell's speech, he was a bit hawkish, right? And people are like, oh, it doesn't seem like we're going to get a cut in September.
But with the numbers being as bad as they are, the probability of them cutting rates in September has jumped significantly. And I think because Jerome Powell is always saying, hey, based on the data, right? So the data came in and clearly not good. So I think we could expect a cut come September and that would be in a line where we're global liquidity is topping right now.
As I've been telling you guys, the delay in the tariffs between U.S. and China by three months, which puts us in October, Congress passing the... Declarity Act the market structure bill so you have these narratives out there very big narratives that the mainstream media is gonna run with Plus the Fed looks like they're gonna cut in September.
It will bring in a lot of capital euphoria the feds cutting You know all these things crypto legislations passing bitcoins hitting new all-time highs But that's the time we're gonna watch the market to see are we in the top zone to take Profits and exit the market. So again patience patience folks I know many of you want higher prices.
So do I I have my portfolio. I have skin in the game I have plans. I have financial ambitions and things like that. So I want to take profits guys So I'm waiting for higher prices just like you but we got to be smart investors here not emotional, right? We don't want to get emotional about markets. We want to look at the data the facts and form our thesis and be patient.
So that is where things stand as of today, folks. Now, a quick word from our sponsor, and that is VeChain. VeChain is one of the top layer one enterprise blockchains out there. They're getting adoption from brands and companies around the world who are building web3 technology on VeChain's blockchain.
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So I'm a vet token holder. I have been since 2018, folks. So long before they became a sponsor, I'm bullish on this project. So if you'd like to learn more, go to VeChain.org. Link will be in the description. All right, we got some interesting updates here from a news standpoint. So DeFi Education Fund urges the Senate to strengthen the crypto development protections in the draft bill.
So speaking about the Clarity Act, the market structure bill and DeFi, of course, is very complex. And we've seen the US government not get things right. They try to set certain rules, whether it be the IRS and many other agencies in the government that have put out recommendations that are not copacetic with how DeFi operates.
So we need to make sure that is done right. So Crypto Lobbying Group, DeFi Education Fund has called on the US Senate Banking Committee to rethink how it plans to regulate the decentralized finance industry after reviewing its recently published discussion draft on a key crypto market structure bill.
The response signed on behalf of the DeFi Education Fund members, including A16Z Crypto, Uniswap Labs and Paradigm said the responsible Financial Act of 2025 bill should be crafted in a more tech neutral manner that crypto developers could be protected from inappropriate regulation meant for intermediaries.
and that self-custody rights for all Americans are essential. So this is really great. The industry is reviewing all of these things, weighing in and giving feedback to Congress. So very good stuff here. Now the SEC's crypto task force is going to hit the road and they're going to have 10 roundtables across the United States.
So this is amazing. Can you imagine Gary Gensler doing this? He's not going to, he wasn't going to do this, right? So it's really great that they're doing this and I plan to attend the one that's going to be in New York City. That's going to be in September. I emailed the SEC to get access to attend this in New York.
So U.S. SEC commissioner Hester Purse will hit the road this fall, leading a 10-city tour as part of the SEC's new crypto outreach initiative. The regulator announced a roundtable series on Friday aimed at gathering feedback from industry stakeholders, developers, and investors as the agency weighs future digital asset rules.
Here is a quote, the crypto task force is acutely aware that any regulatory framework will have far reaching effects. And we want to ensure that our outreach is as comprehensive as possible, has to per said in this statement. So the round table discussions will take place between August and December.
So folks, you can check out their statement for the full list of all the locations and the dates. And like I said, I will be attending the one in New York City in September, I think it's September 25th. So if you're in New Jersey or in New York, you want to attend, you know, definitely email the SEC to try to attend.
It's really, really great. I'll get you guys all the updates, of course. Now look at this, Crypto Exchange Gate launches spot trading services in the United States. So we continue to see competition heating up guys. And that's really good for us as users and consumers. So Crypto Exchange Gate is launching in the US, offering spot trading services to US customers for the first time, founded in 2013 by Chinese scientist Lin Han.
The company cited improved regulatory clarity in the country as a reason behind the move. According to Gate, it will initially offer crypto trading pairs for US customers with upcoming services for Fiat on and off ramps and support for custodial wallets. As of July 24th, the exchange offered over 3,800 trading pairs on its platform.
One of the largest asset varieties in the market. So that's pretty big. That's a lot of trading pairs. So once again, very good. Competition's very good and it's gonna force some of the US exchanges to up their game, right? To raise their standard because, you know, everybody's trying to grab as much of the market share as possible.
So this is really great. I think a lot of exchanges that we were not able to access in the past will be able to come into the United States. And once again, competition's very good, very healthy for the market. But you can see everybody's trying to get as much of the market share as possible to generate as much revenue and profit, of course.
Now, final news item. Zenrock launches Zen BTC as the first decentralized yield bearing Bitcoin on Solana So this is interesting some of these things have been done on Ethereum actually So Zenrock the decentralized custody network incubated by Dan Tapiero's 50 T funds Formally known as 10 T holdings and one roundtable partners enables secure decentralized wrap asset self-custody through its decentralized custody token DTC standard so Zen BTC the first DTC is the first wrapped Bitcoin asset on Solana that is both decentralized and natively Yield bearing the two trillion dollar Bitcoin market remains underserved by traditional custodians that lack yield offerings Zen BTC solves this by enabling self -custody and maintaining Bitcoin's native security model We'll see you next time.
Bye-bye. while unlocking yield opportunities across the Solana ecosystem. With the rapidly growing accessibility of tokenized equity, credit, and real estate, institutions and retail participants alike are increasingly seeking to maximize the tradeability and capital efficiency of larger TAM assets like Bitcoin using on-chain rails.
So I love the idea, I love this, because rather than just have your assets sit there, you can earn yield off of it. The important things that you have to check is that this is a secure platform we are building on. It's not hackable. They are using the appropriate custody services, maybe bank level or a large institutional level like Coinbase Prime.
BlackRock uses Coinbase Custody and much more. So these are the devils and the details that we need to figure out because you always wanna make sure you do your research before you go lock up your funds. So I'm gonna look into things like this, but I wanna make sure it's safe. And I will probably put a little bit of crypto, test it out, see how it works.
Maybe even if there's some sort of insurance or fail safe or something that's offered in case something goes wrong, that will be really great, but we'll have to wait and see who's backing it and what's the custody infrastructure and much more. So again, make sure you do your research with all of these things, but this is great.
And the folks who are able to get this right will make a lot of money because again, Wall Street and all the tradfire are gonna be holding these assets and they're gonna wanna earn yield, folks. And likewise, many of you as well. So this is something to definitely look into. And I will let you guys know if I do participate.
Folks, that's the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below. Hit the thumbs up button. And a great way you can support me in the podcast is by subscribing to my free email newsletter on Substack. It is 100% free. I put out an update today. So check it out, folks. Once again, it's free.
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