저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주식시장(S&P500)은 대형 기술주 쏠림으로 경제 실상과 괴리가 크며, 정상 경제로의 회복은 2021년 하반기 이후에나 가능하다고 본다. 시장 구조: 다우·S&P500은 시가총액 가중 지수라 아마존(약 45% 상승, 지수의 약 6~7%p 기여) 같은 대형주가 지수를 끌어올린다. 괴리: 소형 기업·비상장·레버리지가 높은 기업은 자본 접근성이 낮아 지수에 반영되지 않으며, 소형주 지수라면 50~80% 하락 수준이었을 것이라고 말했다. 기업 전망: 구글·페이스북 등은 장기 수혜주로 보며, 기업 가치는 평생 현금흐름의 현재가치이므로 단기 현금흐름 훼손이 장기 가치를 훼손하는 것은 아니라고 봤다. 시장 성격: 단기 주가는 감정 지수이며 변동성이 크지만 시장이 근본적으로 틀렸다고 보지는 않는다. 재정: 미국은 자산(부동산·인프라)이 크지만 사회보장·의료비 등 부채성 부담이 커지는 점을 우려한다. 현재 저금리 환경은 유리하다. 백신·치료: 화이자의 백신 가능성이 올해 가을 가시화되면 큰 영향을 줄 수 있다고 봤다. 신속 진단·원격진료·치료제 발전으로 사망·중증 위험을 줄이는 것이 올해 가능하다고 전망했다. 회복 시점: 기업·소비자 신뢰는 사람들이 안전하다고 느낄 때 회복되며, 내년 하반기 쯤, 특히 2021년 4분기~2022년 상반기에 본격화될 것으로 봤다. 정책: 취약계층 보호를 위해 지원이 필요하지만, 노동 복귀 유인을 줄이지 않도록 설계해야 한다고 주장했다. 외식업 지원금이 최저임금보다 높아 복귀를 막는다고 지적했다. 개인 교훈: 성공은 직선이 아니며 실패 후 원칙으로 돌아가는 것이 중요하다고 강조했다. 54세인 그는 앞으로 실수를 줄이고 성공을 이끈 원칙에서 벗어나지 않겠다고 밝혔다. 출연자 전망: 시장 전반 낙관보다는 대형 기술주 장기 수혜 및 회복 시점에 대한 신중한 견해다.
다듬은 글
when people talk about the market they talk about either the dow or the s p 500 and the s p 500 is a market cap weighted index and what's interesting or fortunate and unfortunate about the prices is it affects different companies differently and the more dominant large cap you know companies the more the stronger the balance sheet the stronger the market position those businesses are huge beneficiaries of of the crisis um and what the cr what the market does not reflect are small businesses private companies more levered businesses that uh don't have access to capital don't have the same dominance as the public market so a business like amazon which is a very big component of the the market is you know is up 45 percent that does a lot obviously for the averages it's probably something approaching almost 10 of the s p index today my guess is you know six seven percentage points of the index businesses like google facebook i think long-term beneficiaries and ultimately the value of a business is the present value the cash it generates over its life and even if the cash flows are disrupted in the short term if they're greater in the long term the values will be higher so i think the stock market is a snapshot of a portion of the economy if it were if you had an index of smaller businesses the market would be down 50 60 70 80 the market is a discounting mechanism and uh people's estimates of the future have been very volatile how long is the crisis uh going to go on for uh when we get back to our normal life you know these things affect the input of the model uh that analysts are using to value uh securities i think the other issue is the market in the short term is very much a sentiment index it's a way for people to express their emotions and uh there's been a lot of emotions in the short term when that happens uh there's a corresponding degree of volatility but i don't think the market is dramatically wrong you know when you look at the market on a company by company basis we look at the companies we own uh you know different businesses have been affected differently some you know many businesses have been will be long-term beneficiaries you know if you think about the country as a business the country has a lot of intrinsic value a lot of asset value i would say one of the most valuable assets of the country is the you know the country owns 35 of uh your income and my income in a way you can think about that you know that's the tax the current the level of uh of taxation federal taxation so that's in effect the country owns a 35 stake in your intrinsic value and my intrinsic value as a contributor to the economy and the country retains the right to change that uh percentage ownership at its will by by in fact changing you know obviously tax policy so there is then of course we have enormous assets whether they're real estate assets or infrastructure assets um you know that are so i think the the asset side of the us balance sheet is very very large obviously uh you never want to let the liability side of the balance sheet grow too much and there are a lot of not just debt liabilities we have outstanding but we have you know social security you know enormous health care costs medicare medicaid etc you know that we bear as a country so it's something that is concerning um you know we are fortunate finding ourselves in a very low interest rate environment um but it's something to to think about and be concerned about but it's sort of difficult to do the same kind of calculation of of the the net of the leveraged nature of the united states unless you do a proper evaluation of the asset side of the balance sheet i think we're going to you know begin a recovery you know certainly by year-end i don't think we'll be back to anything close to a normal economy until probably the second half of 2021 i think if we have an early vaccine if you know pfizer's been talking about a potential distributable vaccine by the fall that will obviously make an enormous difference i think if we can reduce the treatment of the virus to you know want to test you can take it home and get an accurate result in 15 minutes and it's a it's telemedicine to your doctor to get you know the doctor to say okay you need a prescription for a rem deserver in a inhaler format and you can stay home for two weeks and be fine you know those things will make a fairly uh significant uh you know positive impact but i think the we've had kind of a sloppy closure of the country for the virus and we're having a bit of a sloppy opening so i think you're going to you know you're not going to have business confidence return and consumer confidence return until you know the kind of people feel safe truly safe if i had to guess that's really more like the second half of next year and into you know the beginnings in q4 and q1 and q2 of next year again all things which will temper the economic recovery but i do see a you know kind of gradual improvement in all fronts as the global healthcare system every medical researcher in the world basically working on solving one problem and a lot of resources going into it so i think i think by the fall we'll feel a lot better if we can take death off the table uh if we can take severe illness off the table i think that's certainly possible in this calendar year people gonna feel a lot better about living and going out and living a more normal life um look i still i think we have to protect the most vulnerable people economically during this you know period of time and i don't i don't know you know when do these programs precisely run out uh you need to design programs you know i i've heard we've made a lot of investments in the restaurant industry where you know some of the benefits are at a level where they're more they're better than you know 15 per hour sort of the you know minimum entry points for many private businesses and it discourages people returning to work so you need to design them in such a way that you don't reduce economic incentives to return to work but you have to have them large enough to protect people you know during one of the more challenging times particularly for people at the lower end of the economic scale i've always liked to say that success is not a straight line up and uh i give these talks to business schools about how you deal how to deal with failure and then i failed and i had to implement the strategy that i was a proponent of to business school students but i think the key look we have a business uh with a strategy that makes sense uh we made some mistakes experiences learning from those mistakes that's the key and then you know i was quite confident that if we here to the principals that built the success of the firm or re-adhered if you will that we return to success and it's just a question of duration and and every day coming into the office and making decisions with with good judgment and and being level-headed and uh you know with time i was confident that things would recover and you know feel very fortunate that things have worked out the way that we expected but i'm certainly going to be you know now at 54 i'm done making mistakes so that's mine that's my business plan going forward we're going to be very very watchful about uh veering from the course that has led to uh you know our success you
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