저자: JimRogers—제목·설명란기준 · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 미국 시장이 버블 단계에 있으며 곧 붕괴해 역사상 가장 심각한 경제 위기가 올 수 있다고 경고한다. 위기의 발생 배경: 과거 위기는 아이슬란드, 아일랜드, 베어스턴스, 리먼브라더스처럼 예상하지 못한 곳에서 시작됐으며, 다음 위기도 미국 연기금이나 주목받지 않는 국가에서 나올 수 있다고 본다. 미국 경기 사이클: 미국은 4~7년마다 금융 위기를 겪어왔고 지난 위기 이후 8년 이상이 지나 역사상 두 번째로 긴 호황기라고 언급한다. 부채와 중앙은행: 2008년보다 현재 부채 규모가 훨씬 크며, 미국 연준의 대차대조표는 2008년 약 8000억 달러에서 약 5조 달러로 5~6배 늘었다고 지적한다. 연준이 금리를 더 올린 뒤 위기가 악화되면 구제를 요구받겠지만 효과는 일시적 반등에 그칠 것이라고 본다. 정부·제도 붕괴 우려: 국가, 정당, 리먼브라더스 같은 오래된 금융기관, 박물관·병원·대학 등 제도가 사라질 수 있다고 경고하며, 자유를 포기하고 안보를 택하면 결국 둘 다 잃는다는 벤저민 프랭클린의 말을 인용한다. 투자 전략: 로저스는 시청자에게 자신의 추천을 맹목적으로 따르지 말고 아는 것에 투자하라고 강조한다. 자신은 미국 주식이 사상 최고치인 반면 러시아·중국·일본 시장은 고점 대비 약 50% 하락해 저평가됐다고 보고 러시아 주식과 채권을 최근 매수했다고 밝힌다. 농산물도 극도로 침체되어 주목하고 있다고 말한다. 핵심 원칙: 증오받는 자산 중 가치가 크고 상황이 개선되는 것에 투자하면 잘 될 가능성이 높다고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
when times get really tough if you don't know what you're doing you're really going to lose everything i learned very early in my investing careers i better not invest in what i want i better invest in what's happening in the world otherwise i'll be broke dead broke what's going to happen is this is going to continue some stocks in america are turning into a bubble the bubble's going to come then it's going to collapse and you should be very worried well it's interesting because these things always start where we're not looking uh in 2007 iceland went broke and people said iceland is that a country they have a market and then ireland went broke and then bear stearns went broke and then you know lehman brothers went vocal they said they spiral like that always happens where we're not looking i don't know it could be an american pension plan that goes broke and many of them are broke as you know it could be some country we're not watching it could be all sorts of things uh to be war unlikely to be war but uh it's gonna be something when you're watching business insider and you see absolutely interesting i didn't know that company could go broke it goes broke send me an email okay and then i'll start watching we've had uh financial problems in america let's use america every four to seven years since the beginning of the republic well it's been over eight since the last one this is the longest or the second longest in recorded history so it's coming and the next time it comes you know in 2008 we had a problem because of debt the debt now that debt was nothing compared to what's happening now in 2008 the chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day it started raining they started spending the money now even the chinese have debt and the debt is so much higher the federal reserve the central bank in america the balance sheet is up over five times since 2008 it's gonna be the worst in your the worst in my lifetime too be worried what's going to happen is they're going to raise interest rates some more then when things start going really bad people are going to call and say you must save me this western civilization is going to collapse and the fed who's made up of bureaucrats and politicians let's say we better do something so they will try but it won't work it'll cause some rallies but it won't work this time you're going to see governments fail you're going to see countries fail this time around iceland failed last time other countries fail you're going to see more of that you're going to see parties disappear you're going to see institutions that have been around for a long time lehman brothers had been around over 150 years gone not even a memory for most people you're going to see a lot more of that next time around whether it's museums or hospitals or universities or financial firms i would remind you benjamin franklin uh said in the middle of wars a lot of wars when he was around said anybody who would give up freedom for security is going to wind up with less security and less freedom but they always do that it's always happened smart guys like benjamin franklin warn us but we have people in washington it's not as smart as benjamin franklin these days now in america we've had three central banks the first two disappeared for a variety of reasons the world can get along without a central bank now the world without central banks has a problem but the world with central but these central banks has a problem so yeah we'd be better off without this this central bank this central bank now has 5 trillion of debt i mean you know assets it's built its assets from 800 billion in 2008 to 5 trillion that's trillion with a t it's gone up five or six times in what's at nine years no these guys are they're setting us up for a horrible horrible disaster i told you it's going to be worse than me in my lifetime largely because of the central bank in the u.s and the others who have followed what they should do they're not going to resign they're not going to abolish them they should let interest rates they should move out of the interest rate market their mandate was to have a sound currency for that was their mandate for 60 years or something and then they said okay and you must also have sound a good employment so you have two mandates nowhere does their mandate say and keep the stock market up and keep the bond market up nowhere does it say that and these guys if they went back to their old mandate of a sound currency then we'd all be better off we should only invest in what they know they shouldn't listen to me because if you invest in what other people say you don't know what you're doing you know what they said and you're probably going to wind up losing money just so stay with what you know and if you find opportunities invest i'll tell you what i'm doing i'm investing in russia and china japan these are markets that are down 50 from their all-time highs the u.s market's at its all-time high now i know your parents taught you buy low and sell high don't buy high and hope it goes higher so these markets that i'm looking at are depressed i bought some russian stocks last week and russian bonds the week before i've looked agriculture agriculture is extremely depressed these are places that i'm looking at but don't listen to me listen to what you know because when times get really tough if you don't know what you're doing you're really going to lose everything in my experience i have learned that if you find something that's hated that has a lot of value and things are getting better you probably will do fine and that's why i'm investing in russia you
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