저자: AlexMorris · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 그린란드 협상 프레임워크 발표로 증시 반등. 시장은 관세에 민감하며 NATO 이슈는 노이즈. 유동성(약 28조달러 현금)이 주가를 떠받치는 중이며 VIX가 낮아 리스크는 제한적. 대법원의 관세 판결이 변수. 개인 포트폴리오는 60/40 식 분산 권고, 암호화폐 회피. 채권은 중기 구간(5~10년) 매력적이고 연준 금리인하가 예상보다 클 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to Market Domination Overtime. Stocks rallying through the close after Trump announced a framework for a deal on Greenland. And our very own Jared Blickery standing by with the latest. Jared, thank you Josh. What a difference a few minutes make. And let's check out the intraday price action in the Dow.
You can see that it's finishing off the highs here. That is good for 588 points or 1.2%. NASDAQ composite up about the same amount 1.2% and the S&P 500 just a little bit less than that. So very similar looking charts there. But I want to show you the Russell 2000 that was uh up 1.86% today. That is good for a record closing high.
Same with its uh cousin the S&P 600 2.64%. What accounts for the difference? S&P 600 has only profitable companies and that actually outperformed today. So, uh let's move on down to the large cap sector heat map here. Everything in the green. Energy was leading the way here. Uh materials in second place.
Then we got consumer discretionary, healthcare, industrials, and tech. That rounds out the top line and all of those are outperforming the S&P 500 here. and uh staples the least uh I would say the least performer the least good performer of the bunch here followed by utilities and then real estate and as I said about an hour ago those are defensive sectors so kind of what you would expect on a risk-on day like this NASDAQ 100 is what you're looking at here Microsoft down 2% that big square but Nvidia up almost 3% Alphabet up two uh looks like Broadcom down one and Tesla was up 4% plus uh finishing the day up about just short just shy of 3%.
And another strong showing for the semiconductors. A couple big misses there, but for the most part, if I sort by performance, you see Intel was up 11%, SanDisk, uh over 10%, Western Digital up 8%. And then in software, again, we're not seeing some of the bigger names do that well. Uh we did have outperformance in Data Dog that was up over 5% and Atlassian up more than 3%.
And if we switch over to the Dow industrials, a lot of green here. We already covered Microsoft, uh, but looks like Amgen up 4%, United Health up two, and Home Depot up two and a half%. Josh. All right, thank you, Jared. Well, stocks rallying today on a potential Breland deal this coming off of the steepest sell-off in months on Tuesday.
How long can the momentum hold? Alex Morris, FM investments CEO and CIO, joins me now. Alex, it's great to see you. Maybe it start out just big picture makes sense in the last 24 hours. The whiplash Jared was just talking about we're down big yesterday. Today we rip higher because Trump says on social media, you know, I got a framework for a Greenland deal with NATO.
I'm calling off those new tariffs. What do you tell clients? Well, I think you look at and say, first of all, on Sunday we had sort of global diplomacy by tweeting screenshot, which wasn't on my bingo card for this year. I don't think it was on anybody. So, you knew that was noise. And the president above all has been very willing to walk back from his strongest positions immediately when it no longer suits him.
And it was clear the market spoke. This isn't So you think he saw the mark reaction and he blinked? I think he blinked. I don't think he ever intended much of what he he stated, but he wanted a reaction. And and the president has used NATO as a foil several times in this administration and in season one where he did demand a lot and he got a lot.
It's it's clear that NATO is a force to be reckoned with for Donald Trump and some he has some beef that he just can't quite articulate. But every time he comes up against NATO, there's a reasonable solution because it turns out it's just a good thing. So for investors acts, you say, okay, we had, you know, sell America yesterday read all over the place, but now it's back to, you know, our regularly scheduled programming.
Let's get back to economy, earnings, Fed sort of. I think what you saw was that it wasn't so much the NATO issue, it was the tariff issue. Like markets hate tariffs. We saw that liberation day last year. Markets really, really hate tariffs. And what we saw was a a relatively small sell-off, couple of points.
It wasn't the 10 points we saw on Liberation Day, but the market saw that and also took it in stride realizing this too probably shall pass. It'll be more interesting when we get Supreme Court ruling on whether or not those tariffs could stick anyway. You want to place a bet on that? What you think the high court rules there?
I think it comes down 72 tariffs go away. But if we get Corsich right in the opinion, we're going to see a route for interesting tariff sort of season 2.0 coming back. Do do you do do you mean by that that Trump if that goes away he just finds other levers to pull? I think there will be some other levers and I think the Supreme Court will go out of its way to articulate some that are and some that are not in bounds of what could happen because in all fairness we learned the president can start an embargo.
Why not a tax just to end an embargo? Let me ask you, I if the court ruled the way you think they they would, how would you expect markets to react? I think markets will will probably be pretty happy because right now most of that cost has been absorbed by the consumer and consumers would like to have more free cash flow, but it will be very interesting in how it comes back because the bond market might be a little rattled from having to return $200 billion to producers who are waiting on it.
So, we'll see how that comes down and exactly what the timeline is. You say something interesting or two acts I want to touch, John. say it's liquidity, not fundamentals holding the markets up. Explain that to me. So, I think we we've seen that there's a lot of cash in motion and still has been a lot of cash in motion.
It's $28 trillion sitting in bank accounts and money market funds that is still slowly trickling back in. We see when you have good fundamentals, you get an okay bump. You don't get the 10 15% we were used to seeing five six years ago. You do poorly. You get smacked around a little bit, but it's 10%, not the 20% it was.
So that raw just amount of cash in motion is driving the stock market up and up and up almost despite the news like we we talk about invading a sovereign ally we lose 2%. If I had told you that 10 years ago you would have left the market entirely and bought you know squirrel pelts and lead and moved to Montana
right well let me ask if it's liquidity though Alex um what are the are there risks I need to think about like what happens if flows reverse then? Well, that's when you you'll see more market movements up or down. Right now, the VIX is a good indicator. It's still really low. It's really low by recent standards.
It's really low by historical standards. So, when you start to see the VIX pick up, that's when you start to wonder, is that liquidity going to become an issue? But even with small caps rallying, we're seeing that even the lower capitalization stocks where illiquidity is a bigger risk or have no problem finding buyers and sellers on a regular basis.
So, there really isn't much to worry about now. I would be worried about some of my private investments. we see when those come to the market there is a re very noticeable 20% liquidity premium you take off the bat blue all investors very vocal about that and they backed off that plan so I think we we're seeing that there's just a lot of cash in motion it's constantly in motion and there's more of it coming to market every day the bigger risk is what happens if that $28 trillion in cash decided to find its way to the equity markets in a very short period of time that sort of meltup could be more problematic than the meltdown
let me ask you a you say here in terms of how you want to be positioned right now you say diver diversified and boringly positioned. Walk me through that. How do I how do I screen for boring? Boring, it's that sort of 60/40ish looking portfolio. You know, take some shots on stocks that you really like.
But at the end of the day, if you want to avoid the whipssaw, just be in that sort of middle steady 80y sort of portfolio. It's not the get-rich quick scheme. It's get-rich slowly over time. And anything that has too much attraction, you see too many big plus days, those are a good opportunity to say maybe that's a little too volatile, right?
Stay away from the crypto space. Stay away from things that are trying to ride the next trend and just stick to the middle. It turns out the S&P 500 does pretty well in the long run for fixed income investors. Any any parting words of advice? You know, we we still like the short end of the curve. There's still a lot of yield to be had there, but the belly of the curve is really the place to be.
If rates do come down, new Fed share looks like they are going to bring rates down more than the market's expecting. that fiveyear 10-year duration space in in the US Treasury market feels like it's going to give you a nice return. In 25, you got 4% buying the 90-day. You got 8% buying the 10-year. You're probably going to see that again,
Alex. Great to see you today, especially on set. Thank you. Thank you. Coming up, it's Warren Buffett's successor is making his first major move. Look at the company stake in Craft Hind. We're going to get you an investor's take on this move next on Market Domination Overtime. Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong took the stage in Davos today for the World Economic Forum.
The CEO of the world's most valuable company, talked about everything from AI infrastructure to the future of jobs. The AI bubble is is um uh comes about because the investments are large and the investments are large uh because we have to build the infrastructure necessary for all of the layers of AI above it.
Let's get some of the biggest takeaways from Yahoo Finance tech editor Dan Howie. Dan? Yeah, Josh, the I think the biggest takeaway here was probably that uh Jensen basically saying that there still needs to be trillions of dollars more buildout for this AI infrastructure to continue to take off. Now, companies ranging from Google to Microsoft to XAI to I mean Open AAI $1.4 trillion.
Hello. You know, I don't know how. Hey, hey, you figure out how you're going to pay your bills. I'll figure out how I'm going to pay mine. But, you know, he's talking about how all these companies need to continue to kind of build out as much as they can. And it's not just the chips, right? It's it's the the servers that the chips go into.
It's the plumbing that goes into all of this uh electrical. It's the actual buildings themselves. It's the software. It's the models. All of this is part of that AI infrastructure that uh Jensen Wong's talking about. So, it's not just his chips where we talk about those trillions of dollars, but pretty sure a good chunk will go to those chips.
They also talked about jobs and this has been a big discussion uh at Davos this year going over whether jobs will be negatively impacted, positively impacted. Jensen's take was look, you know, the idea that uh of radiologists uh would be losing their jobs in 10 years a few years ago basically is proven to be not true.
that they use AI now as kind of a way to augment what radiologists do and improve detection rates for for certain uh conditions. And so that was his take. But uh Black Rockck CEO Larry Frink basically said, "But we're also still seeing substitutions aka layoffs when it comes to certain jobs when whether those are analysts at uh financial institutions or or law firms." So there's this ongoing back and forth.
I don't think anybody truly knows what's going to happen with jobs right now when it comes to AI. We are seeing some movement. We are seeing some people say that they're hiring more with AI. Some people saying that they're they're uh causing layoffs. Uh and at uh one of the the the final things I think uh that they kind of discussed was uh just the general sense of where AI is at this moment and Jensen kind of diving into how he sees kind of the future of this buildout uh as well as where that'll take Nvidia in the future.
Dan, one thing you hear about AI and jobs, sometimes I've heard people say this, get your take on it. will say AI won't take your job, but somebody who knows how to use AI tools, they could take your job. What do you think of that? I think that's probably uh a smart way to think about it only because I mean, look, if you were given this computer, right, you know, 20 years ago and someone said use it, you'd probably say
what, you know, I mean, I think I think it's along those lines, right? Like it's it's a tool. And that's the way people should really start to think of AI rather than this like kind of monolithic technology that's you know coming to stomp all over us. Is it going to impact jobs? Absolutely. Will some people lose their jobs?
No doubt. There nobody can tell you one way or the other where it's definitely going to create jobs, definitely going to, you know, erase all jobs. There's going to be a mix. But I think that way of thinking of it as as a tool is much more akin to what the internet was. And the internet did create huge job sectors and it did destroy job sectors.
But as people started to learn how to use it as a tool, it became an important uh economic factor. And so I think that's probably the way to think about AI. I think the way it's kind of talked about and pitched a lot is this singular mass, you know, that's coming at you. But really, it's a tool. So think about it as like a super smart calculator kind of.
There you go, Dan. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Meanwhile, Tesla tempering expectations around its biggest long-term bets with Tesla CEO Elon Musk warning that early production of its cyber cab robo taxi and Optimus humanoid robot will be in his words agonizingly slow. For more, we're bringing Yahoo!
Finance senior reporter autos reporter Proanian Pro Mustang early production of that robo taxi and robot agonizingly slow before accelerating over time. What' you make of that news? Does that surprise you? Um, no, not really. I mean, so, so, so we know we we just saw the tweet just now was in response to something last night talking about how for Cyber Cabin Optimus almost everything is new, right?
So, the early production rate will be, as you said, slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast. And that's the part that the Musk sort of bluster insanely fast, right? So, you know, look, we do see technology things pace ramps up depending on complexity, right? Uh, production speed inversely proportional to the number of new parts, whatever.
So, that's what we think is going to happen. Um Tesla said uh that they're on track for cyber cap production in 2026 and with optimist output hopefully uh towards the end of the year. Now Morgan Sty had a new note out today talking about previewing Tesla earnings but also talking about how they think they have a couple timelines here right they think CyberCap still on track for April 2026 launch because you know we've seen prototypes out in the wild testing.
Uh they think for robo taxis the big thing needs to be the big catalyst needs to be when are they going to remove the safety driver from those cars right we have a bunch of them out in California and in Austin but still with safety drivers um they expect in addition to catalyst at some point they expect a thousand robo taxes by the end of the year uh out in the wild and optimist they think that spring Tesla will debut a gen 3 optus robot that's sort of what they're looking at uh for these you know these big big non-car right uh well car cyber cave is a car but it's a robot car right and robot optimus is the two big sort of levers for Tesla here
so if I was a Tesla investor not not a trader but I'm an investor I'm in there long term do you think did I read this headline today about the robo tax the robot did it have any kind of impact on sort of the long-term bullish thesis I don't think so I think he Musk was just saying that we expect things to be kind of slow at first we're going to they're we Tesla's going to release these products you know in in prototype form and they're going to take time to ramp.
Cyber cab is huge, right? It's potentially no pedals, no steering wheel or might have pedal and steering wheel. Uh it's supposed to be their purpose-built robot taxi. Um they say we're hitting our goal of production, but it's going to be really slow. I think Optimus is a different story. I think that's that's a that's a product that's way out there.
Um and so I think we're going to see this new Gen 3 robot, but whether we see them in the factory by the end of the year is another story. Finally, uh Tesla earnings results, right? What's important? What are you making a beline for? Yeah, next week we're going to have earnings for Q4 in the full year.
Uh, you know, three things here that Morgan Still noted aside from, you know, the headline numbers is one, they expect increased cash, free cash flow burn, uh, due to a higher than expected capex spend, right? Because Tesla's spending on all these all these uh, uh, initiatives like AI chips and potentially restarting DOA, right?
Uh, they expect gross margins to be down to be lower than consensus because of the fact that they think volume growth will be lower and they can't, you know, sort of have that uh, what do they call it? um operating uh what's the word I'm looking for? Uh it's when you can basically when you increase volume it increases profitability.
Y uh I forgot the term but anyway uh and you later we'll get back to that. And then deliveries down 9% compared to consensus again because of the fact that you have a number of headwinds like loss of tax rates um in this country at least decreased demand or or consumer demand for softness for EVs but but not globally.
All right. Thank you. I appreciate it. Operating leverage. There it is. I knew it would come to me. Life after Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway appears to be well underway as it looks to offload its stake in Craft Hind shares. The consumer staples company hitting a six-year low today in Greg Abel's first major move as Bergkshire CEO.
Mel Casey joins us now. He is a senior portfolio manager at FBB Capital Partners. Mel, it's always great to see you. So, reports known to you, Mel. Okay. Bergkshire could soon sell some or all of its stake in Craft Hind which got clobbered today. It was down about 6%. Uh you own Bergkshire in the portfolio now.
You saw those headlines, you read the reports. What do you make of it? How was what was your interpretation of that? Well, first of all, good to be back with you, Josh. H I think it's pretty interesting. For context, like you said, new CEO change. We're three weeks into Greg Abel's tenure as CEO. he's taking over from the highest profile business leader we've we've ever seen.
So that that's pretty big shoes to fill. Uh it's tempting to look at this uh data point, this filing, and interpret this as you could almost look at this as like a like like that moment in Godfather one when Michael took over and he said, "Today I settle all family business." This was a bad investment.
Everyone's been public about this and even the split of the two companies is not something that Bergkshire Management are happy about. Uh Buffett sat on this, owned this for many, many years, admitted in 2019 that it was kind of a disaster. It looks like Greg Ael's ready to move on from this. Probably easier to move on from someone else's mistake than your own as as humans.
Uh but this is a early indication and we won't know more until another month from now when we get earnings and we get some more commentary. But for now, this is an indication that um the style may not be different, but the decisiveness and maybe the the ability to move on quicker from things. You know, Mel, it's interesting you kind of reference it.
I mean, Craft Hinds is it's it's talked about and frame mail as sort of this um unusual mistake by Buffett, right? I'm just curious what what was the mistake, Mel? What what's the the lesson learned here? Well, uh Buffett would be the first to say that he's made many many mistakes. all investors have um this his mistakes are higher profile, right?
But they also go against a much stronger track record than most. So that's important to point out. I think that the valuation here, this was a this was a a joint venture with a with a private equity from a little bit different from his typical uh business. They they bought um one part of the business then merged it with the other later on.
H but it seems like the bet was on consumer taste. H that hasn't really panned out. uh there's been a much more of a drive for for healthier lifestyle. Obviously the GLP1s and things like that must be a factor there. Plus no one uh sort of very few people foresaw the kind of inflation we saw which is which has hammered these businesses with input costs.
So those two things have made it not not very exciting business. Uh but the the actual valuation paid up front seems to be uh um more than a little undisiplined shall we say. You know in terms of uh what's next? Interesting though. I mean, Buffett sounds skeptical that a fix, a split is going to be the fix here at Craft Heidines.
He told CNBC last year, he said, "Uh, it certainly didn't turn out to be a brilliant idea to put them together, Buffett saying, but I don't think taking them apart will fix it." What do you think there, Mill? Any any line of sight opinion there? I don't think it's a silver bullet, and I don't think either option is particularly compelling.
Um it it's just these are not fantastic businesses to be in right now. It's just a question of grinding through if they think that splitting them apart and having more specific focus in certain areas. H there's a little bit more growth in the in the ketchup and the mayo side of the business. So you know fair enough but in the market right now there's there's more exciting places to be.
So I don't think there's a silver bullet here. Finally M I just want to circle back on something you referenced earlier. You know you're talking about Greg Ael. I am curious what you think the craft hines move signals Mel if anything about his leadership going forward. Yeah, I don't I think I think incrementalist is the word we would use.
Uh it's a long long apprenticeship under some a couple of really wise investors. Um I will say that if there is a little bit more of a if we see more activity this year and again we're going to really everyone's going to be paying real close attention here. I think I if we see more of this fail faster uh that's something that'll be different for investors.
I mean you know 13 years for an investment that's not fast to fail here but just the idea of moving on from things and we might see more activity in the portfolio. The other thing is they're sitting on an absolute mountain of cash. This will only increase the cash if they do devest this stake. H what is he going to do with that cash?
That's another thing to to watch out for. Um, you know, we can't sit in treasury bills with half the company's uh balance sheet all year long, I presume. Mel, always great to have you on the show. Thank you. Thanks a lot. All right, time now for what to watch. Thursday, January 22nd, European leaders are holding an emergency meeting in Brussels to discuss recent developments in transatlantic relations, including Greenland.
This is coming after President Trump said Wednesday the US formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and has taken European tariffs off the table. Turn now to the earnings calendar. It's going to be a busy day ahead of the open. We're going to be hearing from Proctor and Gamble, GE Aerospace, and Freeport Macaran.
After the close, investors will be watching Intel. Analysts not expecting any fireworks from the chipmaker, but anticipating a solid PC and server demand with new 188 chip technology showing progress and they've been feeling more bullish on the stock. Intel has gotten a slew of upgrades heading into this report.
As for economic data, we're going to be getting the November reading on personal consumption expenditures. It's the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation. Economists forecasting both overall and core PCE to rise 0.2% on a month-over-month basis. And finally, we'll be getting our first big IPO of 2026 with BitGo, the crypto custodian to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker symbol BTGO.
Investors watching closely not just for crypto space, but for what the offering could signal for the broader IPO market, including high-profile names like SpaceX and Open AI. That's going to do it for today's Market Domination Overtime. Be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell.
But don't go anywhere. On the other side of the break, it's asking for a trend. Now I've got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market moving stories. Stay tuned.
Comments 0