Jim Cramer explains why Fed Chair Jerome Powell 'is winning'

요약 보기

결론: 원자재 가격과 미국채 금리 급락을 근거로 Cramer는 시장이 인플레이션 둔화와 경기 침체 우려를 선반영하며 긍정적 흐름이 나타나고 있다고 봄. 원자재 하락: 석유, 밀, 구리, 옥수수, 알루미늄, 대두 등 상품 가격이 크게 하락했다고 언급하며 이를 긍정적 신호로 해석함. 금리 하락: 미국 국채 수익률이 3.49%에서 거의 3%대 초반까지 내려왔다고 설명. 10년물보다 3년물과 2년물 금리를 주목해야 한다고 강조. 성장주 반등: 코인베이스, 로블록스, 도큐사인 등 주가가 3년물 금리 하락과 함께 반등하고 있다고 언급. 우크라이나 관련 전망: 휴전 가능성을 언급하며, 원자재 하락이 이를 반영한 것일 수 있다고 봄. 다만 확실하지 않다고 조심스럽게 말함. 연준 전망: 파월 연준 의장이 인플레이션 싸움에서 이기고 있다고 평가. 임금 인플레이션은 아직 완전히 잡히지 않았으나 둔화 조짐이 있다고 봄. 페덱스 실적과 가이던스가 경제 및 실적 전망에 중요한 단서라고 언급. 연준 매파 발언 무시: 볼먼, 월러 등의 75bp 인상 발언에도 시장은 원자재·채권·달러 흐름을 더 중시하며 이를 무시하는 듯하다고 평가. 소프트웨어 및 기술주: 세일즈포스 공동 CEO와 대화 후 소프트웨어 기업에 대해 긍정적 입장. 디리스킹(위험 축소) 진행 중이라고 언급. 자동차 업종: 반도체 공급 완화와 원자재 가격 하락으로 자동차주가 압박받았으나 수요는 유지된다고 평가. 석유 및 에너지 관련 종목: 유가 붕괴가 놀랍다고 언급하며 일부 고배당 종목(수익률 9~12%)이 매력적일 수 있다고 봄. 다만 바닥이 보이지 않는다고도 말함. 리스크: 임금 인플레이션이 완전히 통제되지 않았고, 시장이 연준 매파 신호를 과소평가할 수 있다는 점이 위험 요인으로 언급됨. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로 금리 하락과 원자재 약세가 주식시장에 우호적이며, 특히 성장주와 소프트웨어주에 긍정적이라는 입장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. you mentioned the decline in commodities prices it's oil it's wheat it's copper oh corn it's aluminum it's soy and i would add to that the decline we've seen in treasury yields on top of that from 349 all the way down to almost 3 on the tent okay so this is very important we have seen a move in everything from say a coinbase uh to a roblox to to even things like docusign has started coming and these are all off the three year it's the three year and the two everyone talks about the tenure people have to stop folk they have to start focusing on things that really compete with with stocks so what i see is an incredibly positive scenario that almost indicates to me that there may be some sort of truce talk that we don't know about uh actually actually we do know about i don't know we're working hard on this what are you saying yeah it's possible really because a lot of people think it could just be that the market is starting to process in recession well i think the market is trying to process in a truth that would be good news yeah well no yes and no i mean it's it's good news if you if you think that it's okay that that zelinski has to give up uh the east in return for recognition by the eu and perhaps even although i doubt nato no one's talking about the truce no one said about the commodity client other than you which by the way is is it is astonishing and it's not that gas suppose they're not getting it's everything we ought to put up we got to put up corn and wheat and look at look at ag code look at deer this is a remarkable decline that if we were advancing as much sarah we would all be frightened to death instead jay's jay pal is winning he's not winning on wage inflation yet but that's next not yet although in the fedex earnings call yesterday there was a mention that while wage rates i think the exact line are higher than they were last year they are moderating fedex was a big clue on the economy and on earnings if everyone's expecting earnings to fall here and we haven't seen the estimates go down i don't know fedex the guidance was better than expected we are starting to de-risk we're de-risking the software companies we spent a lot of time with uh brett taylor and mark benioff yesterday of course you know co-ceos of uh of salesforce very bullish now one of the things that's happening that i think is just shocking uh you're from cincinnati i am i know proudly i knew that it's like i even know the the coordinates because of kroger's thing but people are moving there are companies taking advantage of this work from home going to ohio atlanta that's going to bring down the cost of engineers because they're taking them in places where there's no job hop this is an anti-job hop moment so sarah we can sit here and just woe is me about inflation or we can recognize the total collapse of oil the amazing decline yeah so i mean and also what i think is important about it is that the market has ignored this week the very hawkish fed talk we had michelle bowman this week governor never talks endorsing a 75 basis point hike next next time we had waller endorsing 75 that's hawkish because powell said we might go 50 we might go 75.

02. and the market appears to be ignoring that and saying okay what we're seeing in the commodity markets in the bond market in the dollar which has started weakening the dollars i'm kidding where's the dollar versus the yen when the yen was i mean we all should have gone to to where my father was stationed kyoto they were apparently giving giving the stuff away for the dollar now another thing that we have to be very appreciative look at the autos they've been crushed because of semis and because of raw costs well the semi market has definitely loosened the raw costs have come down big the demand is still there because of work from home needing cars sarah i don't want to paint too positive picture because we don't have wage inflation totally under control but these people are calling for three quarters what date are they looking at what data the last inflation report well i mean they want to be data dependent they ought to look at the futures markets the oil collapse is stunning i mean i'm looking at the stocks and thinking for my travel trust you know do you go in and buy some of these they seem to have no floor even though some of them are yielding 9 10 11 12.

03. and with rates going down they should be attractive but i'm seeing as you are seeing something that no one's talking about this the disintegration of the commodities market just when these fed people are talking three-quarters