저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 짐 로저스는 시장 과열 끝 신호를 보고 대부분 주식을 매도해 현금을 보유 중이며, 폭락(20~60%)을 확인한 뒤에만 재투자하겠다는 입장이다. [투자 포지션] 주식은 대부분 매도했으나 우즈베키스탄·중국·파키스탄 자산은 일부 보유. 현금은 단기 예금(달러)에 보관하며 공매도는 하지 않음. 금·은 실물을 보유하고 있고 하락 시 추가 매수 의향 있음. [시장 판단] 전 세계 주요 시장이 사상 최고치를 기록 중이며 이는 드문 현상이라 과열 끝(end) 신호로 본다. 다만 언제 끝날지는 아무도 모르고, 버블은 예상보다 오래 지속될 수 있다고 인정. [재투자 조건] 20% 하락은 주목할 만하지만 보통 30~60%의 하락, 절망이 만연한 시점을 기다린다. 신고점 행진은 오히려 불안하게 만든다고 함. [거시·정책] 미국 부채가 세계 역사상 최대 수준이며 인쇄(통화 발행)에 의존하는 구조는 결국 더 큰 문제로 이어진다고 경고. 그럼에도 현재 결과는 나타나지 않고 있어 그 이유는 불분명하다고 함. 베선트 재무장관 발언에 대해 성장으로 위기를 벗어난다는 주장에 회의적. 인플레이션 경로 가능성 언급. [중국·지정학] 중국은 역사적으로 여러 번 정상에 올랐던 국가이며 최근 증시가 급등 중. 시진핑-트럼프 회담에 큰 기대는 없음. 미국과 중국의 패권 경쟁 구도로 본다. [원자재] 알려진 석유 埋藏량 감소로 장기적으로 유가 상승 가능성 언급, 단기 전망은 유보. 중간선거 전 유가 정치적 개입 가능성은 낮다고 봄. [기타] 전망 요청에 대해 명확한 예측은 피하고 역사적 패턴과 신중한 자세를 강조. 베선트 재무장관은 과거 그의 인턴이었음.
다듬은 글
At a certain point, markets get out of control. Everyone is having a great time. Everything grows upwards, despite everything. Usually it's near the end. We may be facing a recession. We may face collapse. A disaster may be waiting for us . We are seeing a very challenging market this week. Oil prices are rising.
The US dollar is strengthening. Bond yields are rising. And this week we are waiting for the Fed's decision. And everyone is expecting an interest rate increase. We have to guess on coffee grounds. We need to understand: what is happening in the markets this week? And, of course, what happens in the long term.
I invited the fantastic and legendary investor Jim Rogers again because I know he has amassed a lot of cash. I wonder when he will be ready to invest it again? What is he looking for? And how does he assess the current situation? Before I move on to my guest, help us with the algorithms. Leave a comment below.
This helps a lot. Give it a like and, of course, if you haven't already , hit the subscribe button. We appreciate it very much. So, Jim, it's great to see you back on the channel. Thank you very much for joining us. Well, Kai, I...I'm glad to be here. Perfectly. Yes, these are very challenging times in the markets, Jim, and I mentioned in the introduction that you have accumulated a significant amount of cash.
And of course I'm interested . You've said throughout your career that investors should wait to invest capital until they see money literally lying around the corner. You 've sold a lot of your stocks, accumulated cash, and what exactly are you waiting for now? And how close are we perhaps to a situation where you can invest again?
Well, Kai, I still have stocks in Uzbekistan and China. I didn't sell them. Maybe it would be worth selling China. It's been growing rapidly lately, but I still have China and Pakistan. Now, if you ask me what to do, are you kidding? We should ask you what to do. You are the one who knows what is happening .
I am just an innocent bystander trying to survive and make a living. So far so good, but who knows? I make many mistakes. How do you assess the current situation, Jim? I mentioned in the introduction that oil prices are rising. The bond market seems to be getting out of control. Is this the last stage right before the collapse?
I'm just trying to understand what stage we are at? Or is it just a regular market that is very volatile right now? Well, Guy, we have to ask you. I know that most markets in the world reach all-time highs, which is rare, but it happens, and that's one of the reasons I sold assets. Everyone is having a great time.
So maybe it will go on like this forever. If you ask in the US, they will tell you: “Don’t worry. "Everything will be fine." As Trump says: “Don’t worry . "I control everything." So, if you take his words, you won't have to worry. What would have to happen for you to start investing again, perhaps in Western countries?
And invest, perhaps, in Western stock markets, whether in the US or Europe. What is needed for this ? Well, if something were to fall hard, hopefully I would be smart enough to invest. I like to invest when everything is falling apart. I like to invest when everyone is unhappy about something. I don't see a place now where everyone would be dissatisfied.
Everyone is very happy, Guy. It seems so. The S&P is still at record highs, although futures are n't looking too good this morning. But you know, Jim, if the markets were to drop 20% tomorrow, would that be an entry point, or do you need to see a 40, 50, maybe even 60% drop before you invest again? Well, 20% in one day would get my attention.
I assure you. But usually I would like to see, I hope to see, that the markets have sagged a lot . You know, by 30, 40, 50%. This is the moment when despair reigns everywhere . And when despair reigns everywhere, I hope I'm smart enough to pay attention and do something. Desperation is good for investors.
Which would make you say, "Oh, I was wrong about all of this." That is, is there a scenario where you say, “Okay, I was wrong. I withdrew the money too early. " The collapse won't happen for a long time." Is there such a scenario? Oh, I was too hasty. I took money out of the market too early. I think it's a mistake, but I've made mistakes like that many times in my life.
Well, I guess I don't even know what could make me change my mind. I know a collapse would make me change my mind. But new highs don't make me change my mind. Even more new highs make me anxious. They make me worry even more. Well, Scott Bessant said that we can get out of this situation through growth.
What do you say to that? Where is this growth supposed to come from anyway? And I hope Scott knows what he's talking about. But this is unlikely. Well, politicians, that's what politicians are paid to do. I have heard this many, many times in my life in many countries. I am skeptical. It's an easy decision, kid.
Very easy solution. Hmm, if you can do it. Few people succeeded. Yeah, well, it looks like we're either going to get out of this through growth or through inflation. And it seems to me that we are now going down the path of inflation, promising everyone $5,000 and having a huge deficit. In my opinion, this is very inflationary.
Um, are those the only two options? No, there is an option that we are facing decline. We are facing a collapse. A catastrophe awaits us. And there may be other options. There is no doubt about it. Um, I would rather expect a collapse because so much time has passed, the longest period in American history without problems.
Of course, this doesn't mean we will have problems. Look at the market. But, um, historically, it means it's worth asking the question. Well, I've been nervous too since 2011, when we started pouring money into the market and nothing happened. So I was on the wrong side of trading for a while too, and I fully admit that.
But why can we postpone the inevitable for so long? Why can we prolong suffering so much? How is that even possible, Jim? Print, print, print. All you have to do is print a lot of money. Many people are happy. And they think there are no problems. Print. Print, print, print and print some more. It works for a while.
It always worked. But , at least historically , it ultimately leads to bigger problems. So why aren't the consequences being felt? We all see it. The M2 money supply and all these, you know, indicators are at record high levels. But in reality, nothing has changed. It seems like we in the Western world, and in the US in particular, are going the way of Japan, and nothing is really changing.
We just accepted it. Why have n't the consequences caught up with us yet, Jim ? Because we keep printing money. If you call Washington, they'll tell you, "Don't worry, Mr. Kai ." Everything is fine. And at the same time, they print, print, print, and print. To make sure everything is okay. I think you and I are too experienced.
We know that this often leads to problems. But in Washington they either don't know, or don't care, or think they are smarter than the market and can control it. So far they are right. Jim, you've seen a lot of market cycles, and I'm wondering what the current phase reminds you of? Is there any phase in the markets in the past that can be compared to today?
End. This is similar to endings I've seen before. You know, at a certain point, markets get out of control. Everyone is having a great time . Everything grows, no matter what. This usually happened towards the end. Whether the end is near this time— no one knows. But it was often a sign that we were nearing the end.
Are you looking at isolated markets, or is it a “bubble of everything” right now? Are we looking at just one indicator , say the S&P 500, which has reached record levels? How do you interpret this? What metrics do you look at when you say, "Yes, it's close to the end"? Is this the bond market? Is this the stock market?
Is it just the stock market? OK. I repeat, at this point, almost every market in the world, every market in the world is reaching historic highs. Maybe things are different. Maybe people will tell me: " You don't understand." " Everything is different now." Well , maybe they really are different in that everything is growing and everything is breaking records.
This has rarely happened in history. The bulls say, "You don't understand." " Everything is different now." Well, the amount of money in the markets obviously supports them for obvious reasons. Do you see any particular trigger? I'm trying to embarrass you , Jim, and I'm just curious. Is there any one trigger that you pay attention to?
Could it be some news or something that, when you open the newspaper in the morning, you say, "This is it." This is a signal of collapse. Is there any indicator you could point to or anything that would give you that feeling? I don't know any. I mean, a world war would make me worry. Like everyone else.
But no. The peculiarity of a bear market is that no one rings the bell and says, "Okay, it's over now." He sneaks up unnoticed. Things start to go wrong and no one notices. Everyone says, " Oh, don't worry about it. Don't worry. Don't worry. Don't worry. It's okay." When they see something going wrong, they say, "Don't worry." So far they are right.
Yes. It was worth just ignoring it. Sometimes it's not worth knowing too much, honestly . You know, sometimes you just have to go with the flow. Ahem. Sometimes it's worth just calling Kai and asking what's going on. Well, to be honest, I would be wrong about the major markets for a long time. Given that we are printing money, as you said, like crazy.
And my pragmatic mind would say that this can't last forever. But it seems to have been working for almost 15 years, if not longer. Therefore. What is It continues. This works even in 2026. That's right. Jim, you've raised a lot of capital. This means you're sitting on a pile of cash, of course. How do you manage this cash position?
Are you in bonds? Are you purely in US dollars? Do you get income from this cash, of course? I'm curious how you deal with this . US dollars on short-term deposits. I didn't play short positions. I'm not playing short positions yet. Um, I mostly keep my cash in short-term interest-bearing deposits. What would interest you about, say, 10-year US Treasury bonds or something like that?
Are you interested in the 5% mark, or is that still too risky? Well , that doesn't interest me. I mean, I remember a few years ago interest rates were much, much higher than that . I suspect they will return to such high levels again. I mean, the US is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and the situation is getting worse every day.
No one has anything to do yet. Nobody knows except me. But who cares about me? I see this happening, but I repeat, it's nobody's business but me for now. Which is very strange. The US government debt situation, since you touched on it, is very sensitive, of course, to higher yields. Do you see any tipping point in the future?
I know, it's like fortune telling, and we keep repeating the same thing , I almost expect the same answer, that no one knows. But do you see a tipping point in the bond market where Bessent needs to become more active again, intervene more aggressively again, perhaps if he can at all ? Is there such a point as that "magic number"?
If there is such a magic number, I don't know what it is. Maybe you should ask Kai to find out, but I don't know. The market knows, but never tells us until it's too late. OK. I remember we were talking about Scott Bessant earlier. He interned with you or in your office, right? Once upon a time? Once upon a time , but it was before you were born.
Yes, definitely. That was quite a long time ago. Are there any memories? Do you remember working with him back then? He knew nothing, but he wanted to learn. He was enthusiastic, full of energy and enthusiasm . He wanted to learn about investing, you know. When he was in prison, in his last days, he planned to become a journalist.
And then he said, "Oh, why do n't I try this investment?" I gave him an internship. He knew nothing, but he was enthusiastic about learning. And he learned. Honestly, a personal question: are you proud to see him in this position? Do you have a feeling like, "Hey, I gave him his first internship." Just wondering if it evokes any feelings.
So, if he is successful, I have to take credit for it. Obviously. I will do that. If he achieves great success, I will credit it to myself . But No, but he is the US Treasury Secretary. This, you know, is an honorable position. And you gave him his first internship, so you must have seen something in him .
It wasn't just out of sympathy, I suppose, or because of family ties? I don't know. No, no. I mean No. It happened because, well, I left, he was at Yale. Uh, he was looking for an internship. He thought he would go into politics, for some kind of political internship. But for some reason, he decided to try the world of investing, and what did I know?
You know, I was just looking for an intern. I had a spare room, actually, I was renting an apartment, so I had a spare bedroom. Gave him the bedroom. And my office was there, and I went to work every day . He did too, but back then I was actually trying, I wanted to travel the world on my motorcycle, so I worked on that.
Scott showed up and everything worked out. No, fantastic. Now, Jim, thank you very much for this short story. I was just curious about what it was like and what personal feelings, of course, arose when you see someone you worked with get such a position. Um, I want to tap into your expertise on Asia a little bit, since you're based in Singapore, Jim, and I'm wondering what the, what do you call it, sentiment is in Asia right now?
They are obviously very different from those in the West. Um, what's the sentiment on China right now? What is the general sentiment? Well, I mean, Scott, I mean , look out the window, Kai. Most people are enthusiastic. Most people are confident in the world, about the world. Everyone, whether it's Korea, Japan, New York, most people are full of enthusiasm and confidence.
Hooray. Kai, don't worry. You sound like a politician now, Jim. I'm not smart enough to be a politician. No. Um, Jim, you're still holding your ground in China. What makes you keep them? I'm curious. In the West, you constantly hear that China is bankrupt and nothing is going well, but apparently it seems that the opposite is true.
Give us an overview. Why are you still holding on to them? Too lazy to sell, I guess. Uh, no, I mean, it's only in recent days that the Chinese market has started to grow rapidly. Uh, I mean, China has a giant economy , a giant population, a lot of rich neighbors. And China is one of the few countries, perhaps the only country , that has been at the top three or four times in history.
Rome was great once, Egypt was great once. China has been at the top three or four times. China has declined and experienced disasters several times. But somehow, despite the disaster, China rose to the top again, and it's happening again. I do n't know why, Kai. If you know why, please don't say it on air.
Write me a private message so I can figure it out. But they are doing it again. President Xi and President Trump meet in 10 days in Washington. Do you have any expectations from this meeting and from the development of these relations in general? None. No. They will take photos. They will say nice words.
They will say that everything is great and everything will get better. I can write it for them. They don't even need to meet. I could just send them a telegram. I know what they will say. Did you expect the US to pass the baton and say, " China, now it's your turn"? Or the US is trying to grab hold of this baton, saying, no, we still want to be the leader.
Let's do this. Because everything in the world that is happening at the geopolitical, even meta-level, looks like a confrontation between the US and China. So I wonder what we can learn from this? Well, throughout history, Kai, the country at the top claims it's still there. They do everything they can to stay on top.
This is not the first time this has happened. And it's happening again. Washington will tell you we are number one. That things are going great and we will remain number one. I'm American, so I hope so, but I can also read. I can count. The problem is that I can add and subtract. And I know what the numbers say.
Yes. No, they do n't look very good. They look very bad. Jim, on the subject of oil, I'm wondering if you have any views on what's happening in the oil market right now? Well, oil, as you know, has fallen from its historic high. If you are a good trader, then it is probably time to start buying oil because known oil reserves continue to decline around the world.
So, the price of oil will increase significantly over the next few years. Maybe not this month, but known stocks continue to decline. Maybe someday someone will find a huge oil field, but we do n't have it yet. Well, or you just conquer it and make it yours, I guess. This is another option. Are you going to conquer?
Where is this oil field that can be conquered? Saudi Arabia? Uh... I don't think that would be wise. Intrusion. Maybe off the coast of Venezuela or Guyana, I think. OK. What are you going to capture? Off the coast of Venezuela? Become rich. I'm afraid this requires a bit more. We already have this oil.
We need more oil to bring down the price. Jim, perhaps as a digression or part of the oil question: we have midterm elections coming up, and of course the US is very sensitive to the price per gallon. Do you expect any political interference in the oil price before the elections? No, I mean Washington wants the price to stay high.
They want to make a lot of money, but they don't want the price to be too high. Because voters don't like high gasoline prices . So no, I suspect Washington will just watch. At least for now . If something dramatic happens, Washington can act. But so far, nothing dramatic is happening. Jim, let me summarize.
Many more macroeconomic events await us before the end of the year. I mentioned the midterm elections. I'm curious, what is your forecast for the next 3–6 months? Uh... I'm trying to do some fortune telling on coffee grounds, just curious. What is your prognosis? What should investors expect in the near future?
Well, I repeat, Kai, I sold everything. I still have assets in a few countries, but for the most part I have sold my stocks around the world because I know that when every market reaches historic highs, it is time to ask questions and get worried. But I also know, Kai, that when it starts, it usually lasts longer than anyone expects, at least longer than I expect, and it will probably do so again.
That's how people are made. Jim, I forgot one more question about gold and silver. Are you increasing your positions in physical metal, because I know you don't trade it. So I'm just wondering if you're replenishing your supply. Well, I have gold and silver, and this gold and silver will one day go to my children and grandchildren.
So now I buy them. And that's mainly because I'm lazy. But if I weren't so lazy, I would probably buy more silver and more gold when prices drop. Everyone should have some gold and silver in their pantry. Everyone has it. You are absolutely right. Be sure to pay attention. Anyone watching us and doesn't have gold or silver, please start buying it.
Very good advice. Fantastically. Jim, it's always a pleasure to chat with you. It was great to see you on the air. I'm really, really grateful for that. Don't turn off, I need to quickly say some closing words because I'm grateful to Jim for participating, but I'm also grateful to you for watching the channel.
Without you, the viewers, this channel would not be able to exist. We greatly appreciate your support. Don't forget to click the "like" button and subscribe. Leave a comment below for the algorithm. This helps us a lot , and we just appreciate it. Thank you very much for joining, and good luck this week. It will be difficult. Take care of yourself.
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