저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 경제가 부채 기반의 허상이며 곧 침체·인플레이션 위기로 간다고 보고, 금과 금광주 및 해외 자산 배분을 권한다. 경제 상황: 쉬프는 정부 통계가 실제보다 낙관적이라고 주장하며, 최근 GDP 성장률(4.8~4.9%)은 인플레이션 착시이고 향후 하향 수정될 수 있다고 봤다. 고용지표는 가계조사 기준 약 40만 명 감소, 공식 집계도 정부 일자리 위주로 약하다고 평가했다. 달러와 인플레이션: 달러가 크게 약세로 전환해 'outside reversal' 주간 패턴이 나왔다고 보며, 달러 약세로 인해 CPI가 다시 약 9% 수준으로 반등할 것이라고 예측했다(인플레이션 상승 방향). 원/달러 관련 직접 수치 예측은 없었음. 금과 채권: 금은 2,000달러 아래로 다시 내려가지 않을 것이며 2,100달러 위에서는 재하락이 없을 것이라고 주장했다(금 상승). 금광주는 하루 5% 상승해 선행지표일 수 있다고 봤다. 채권 트레이더들은 Fed 인하와 인플레 둔화를 기대하며 금리를 낮췄으나 쉬프는 이를 오판으로 보고 금리 상승(미국채금리 상승)을 전망했다. 재정 위기: 미국은 3년 내 약 17조 달러 만기 도래와 연간 약 3조 달러 재정적자로 약 27조 달러 차입이 필요하며, 민간 수요가 부족하면 Fed가 화폐를 찍어 부채를 monetize해 고인플레로 이어질 것이라고 주장했다. 결국 디폴트 또는 인플레이션으로 부채를 줄일 것이며, 후자가 정치적으로 선택될 가능성이 높다고 봤다. 투자 전략: 1970년대처럼 주식(특히 미국 주식)은 실질적으로 큰 손실을 볼 수 있고, 금·금광주·석유·일본·독일·스위스 등 해외 자산이 유리했다고 설명. 자사 뮤추얼펀드(유러퍼시픽 가치펀드 등)와 자산운용 서비스를 홍보했다. 리스크: 자산 가격 붕괴 및 소버린 부채 위기, 달러 위기 가능성을 강조. 출연자 전망: 쉬프는 장기적으로 스태그플레이션성 위기를 예상하며 이에 대비하라고 권고.
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special coverage from the New Orleans investment conference is brought to you by Victoria gold Corp leading yukon's new Gold Rush welcome back to Sor financially welcome back to nor alans welcome to another interesting discussion This Time with Peter shiff he's the chief Global strategist over at EUR Pacific and the founder of shift gold Peter thanks so much for making the time it's great to see you in person we've done this spiritually last time thank you yeah yeah nice to see you in person as well absolutely we got to talk about your talk and of course were part of an e economy panel as well and I think we should start there to sort of set the scene of where we at right now Peter how do you rate the state of the economy these days I think it's a disaster you know I people don't appreciate just how bad it is you everybody wants to point to government statistics which paint a much Rosier picture than the one that actually exists but I think what people are ignoring is the mountain of debt that has been built up and the fact that the prosperity if you want to call called that that we've enjoyed has been a function of that debt and we got to pay it back it's been borrowed prosperity and the bills are coming due uh the inflation that we've created to prop everything up is now coming back to bite US inflation is rising it's pushing yields up and this whole you know hanzi economy is about to implode one sentence I've been hearing and reading under like YouTube comments as well it's like they aren't hiding it even anymore right uh so GDP number made me think of that sentence 4.9% or 4.8% GDP growth last quarter how real is that like how does that not real at all it's an illusion it's almost all inflation and who knows if they're going to revise it away I mean I mentioned in my talk here yesterday that you know this is H the fourth quarter of 2023 and we're talking about how great everything is well they were talking about how great the economy was during the fourth quarter of 2007 even though that's when the Great re recession started the government didn't even declare that recession until a year later they went back and downwardly revised an entire year worth of Rosy numbers and they said you know what we were in a recession the whole time and so I think that a year from now we may find out that we actually had negative GDP growth during this quarter not not positive a lot of a lot of sectors are already retracting already in a recession it just hasn't been labeled out yeah well look at the jobs numbers that came out today they were terrible in fact the household survey we lost about 400,000 jobs but even in the official you know uh uh uh numbers that they report we only gained 150,000 51,000 of them were government workers I mean IRS agents I mean these aren't the jobs that we want created uh we lost 35,000 manufacturing jobs uh these are the good jobs the productive jobs the high paying jobs they're disappearing uh all these jobs that were were created were second and third jobs that went to people that were struggling to make ends meet and they need extra jobs so this is a weak economy the labor force participation rate went down unemployment went went up so bad bad news across the board absolutely we had the UAW strike end more or less this week how how much was that a factor in that in that number as well because they they quoted a lot of the jobs that were lost during that quarter was part of the strike companies had to lay off people because they couldn't like they weren't working the factories were standing still see see if they bring them back because now the you know the costs are going up I think a lot of companies are going to be cutting back on their workers because the wages are going up so they can't afford to buy as much labor at at higher price points but also the economy is uh is Contracting because everybody is struggling with higher prices and higher interest rates which are also a price well we have the fomc meeting this week and then jman po spoke on Wednesday they're staying put there's nothing happening they're quite doish actually in their remark what do you make of that and uh let's put a perspective bonds dropped massively bond yields dropped massively last 48 hours yeah I think uh Bond Traders still don't get it I mean they're looking at the FED they're looking at some of the economic data today's week jobs numbers in particular and they're thinking that okay this means the FED is done they're going to cut rates but they also think it means that inflation is going to come down because they don't understand that inflation is not a byproduct of economic growth they think if we just have slower growth we have lower inflation we're actually going to have higher inflation because the slower economic growth actually uh causes a reduction in production of goods but at the same time it blows out the deficit and so if we have bigger deficits that means the FED has to monetize more debt we have more QE and the dollar goes down in fact the dollar had a terrible day today it had a horrible week in fact from a technical perspective it was called an outside reversal week where we took out the high from the previous week and then closed below the low of that week the dollar to me looks like it's about to drop pretty big and that means that prices are going up because of our dollars are less valuable we need more of them the the main reason that we saw the big drop in the CPI the year-over year numbers from 9% to 3% it wasn't the rikes it was the strength of the dollar the dollar went up and that brought down commodity prices and that brought down the CPI but now that the dollar is going to surrender those gains we're going to reverse that Improvement and now we're headed back up to 9% and the CP the opposite direction that the FED is claiming it's it's going absolutely Dixie lost two points as he said like from 107 to 105 that's a big drop in a very short period yeah we were above 107 yesterday yeah and we were below 105 today massive swing massive swing also gold at the same time shot over $2,000 I wouldn't say sh strong word yeah gold was ticked over over $2,000 yeah gold and it's settled below but the gold stocks were up 5 5% today that's a nice move U maybe it's a leading indicator we'll see they've been lagging for a while but you know I don't think Gold's going to trade below 2,000 much longer there's not that many days left uh and then once it really takes off I think once we get up maybe above 2100 I don't think we'll ever see Sub 2000 again how GE political is the gold price right now and the move that we've seen the last month actually I don't know I think it should be uh a bigger issue politically and I think it will be once the price really starts to rise that's sending uh some signals to a lot of uh players around the world uh that problems are are are are arising and and and things are going to change it's like a canary in the coal mine gold you know gold coal mine you know when you see a big spike in the price of gold that's what was your main takeaway from your presentation like what was something you wanted the investors to leave with the the room after your presentation well I just wanted them to understand how how much things are going to change investment wise I I talked a lot in my workshop about the 1970s and how how much different they were from the 1960s and 1950s and everything that worked you know during the bull market blew up during that bare market and and I think that's where we are now we're going to repeat that 70 show only worse for the economy but I think if you get it right if you have the right portfolio you'll make even more money than the people made in the 70s you know and if you stayed with the nifty50 portfolio uh in the 70s you got killed you know the Dow went from TW uh 20 oun of gold in 1966 to 1 ounce of gold in 1980 that was actually the all-time record low for stocks Was 1980 so people lost a fortune in real terms in US Stocks if they rote out the 70s but if you bought gold you know gold went from 35 to 800 if you bought mining stocks if you bought oil oil went from 3 to 30 if you invested in Japan if you invested in Germany or Switzerland you made a lot of money in the 70s not and so I think that's what people need to do they need to realize how dramatically things are going to change and that they can't stick with the past most people will you know they're going to go down with the ship but you know I think my clients you know you know they're getting off the sinking ship you know I've been off it for a while because I known this ship was s so yeah I mean so you're you know your listeners your viewers should you know do what they can I mean I my mutual funds are on all the platforms people can buy the EUR Pacific value fund the dividend payer fund the emergency market fund the gold fund foreign bond fund uh anywhere you know no load anywhere you've got uh you know discount broken firms but if you want me to personally manage your portfolio I've got a team of of portfolio managers that work with me here in Puerto Rico you can go to our website at europa.eu talk to one of our Representatives about transferring over an account or funding an account that I can manage in the type of assets that are going to do very well in the inflationary stagflationary environment which is probably going to be a crisis not just a financial crisis but a sovereign debt crisis a US dollar crisis so the stakes are very high and you know you can't afford to be on the losing side of this not not at all like last topic I want to discuss with you real quick Peter is is the debt crisis that you mentioned cuz the US has to issue another $775 billion this quarter so the next 7 weeks until right quite quickly um how closely are you monitoring that and like what is the impact on that do you see any cracks in that already no I mean it's it's enormous the amount of money we have to borrow because we have short-term debt you know imagine if you had a mortgage but you know every you know few years you had to refinance the entire thing right you had to find somebody to lend you the money uh because the mortgage was due I mean I think we have a $34 trillion funded debt right that's doesn't count all the unfunded liabilities which actually are much larger but we've borrowed 34 trillion the treasury has issuing bonds a third of that um or half of that rather matures over the next three years so that's 17 trillion that we have to borrow to pay back the maturing debt but during those 3 years we're probably going to run at least another 10 trillion of debt for from annual budget deficits that'll probably average over 3 trillion a year for the next 3 years so that's $27 trillion that the US government has to borrow what if they can't what if what if the lenders aren't there then the FED is going to do it but where's the FED going to get the money they're going to print it so that's massive inflation that's where're headed the FED is going to monetize all this debt because there aren't enough private sector lenders willing to lend the money now if rates went up to 10 or 15% maybe there'd be takers problem is we can't afford to pay that we're broke we have to we have to declare you know bankruptcy as a nation so to prevent that from happening it's the fed that's going to step up last last question how do you see that whole situation the debt crisis the massive the 3334 trillion debt crisis solve itself is is there a solution no there's no solution there's there's just default the question is how do we default do we do it honestly by not paying or do we devalue do we devalue the dollar and just inflate it away but inflation is the more politically expedient choice but it's the more damaging for the economy and it's it's going to inflict the most pain on the most uh largest number of people unfortunately that that's what they're likely to choose I might be wrong but I heard that number somewhere 8% inflation I think you need 40 years to inflate the way the dept yeah but that's not sustainable it won be 8% it'll be a lot more than that I know it's like just about 40 years 8% that just imagine how much inflation you need to sort of inflate away the debt yeah me more like 40% for 8 years years exactly fantastic Peter fantastic conversation thanks for being available I got to just grab some water absolutely so thank you so much for joining us everybody else thanks so much for tuning in well thanks so much for tuning to sore financially hit that subscribe button follow Peter on Twitter as well and uh thanks so much for your time we'll be back with lots more from New Orleans all right fantastic awesome that was fast quick Pace love it SP
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