저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 시장은 국내 저축이 해외로 나가지 못해 유동성이 국내에 머물고, 소매 투자자 유입(SIP 등)이 장기 성장을 뒷받침한다고 봄. 단기 조정은 있을 수 있으나 성장 기업에 베팅한다는 입장. 2007년과 현재를 비교하며 현 상황은 과거 금융위기와 다르다고 주장. 외국인(FII) 매도 시 국내 유동성으로 흡수 가능하다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Should we assume that if there is to be a correction in our market or if the market is to top out, if anything happens, if such a situation arises, then if it happens, it will happen due to global reasons, due to our own reasons, we will not be very bad, you can have this confidence, keep this truth in mind that when it will happen, it will happen when it happens, whether it is global or local, okay, because it seems that it is not local right now because local, as you also said, we saw the time of elections, we saw the budget, this event also happened in the budget, but what about the future, see, these are non-financial events, they are not economic events, all these are political, social, whatever it is, but it is not an economic event, it means something like this can happen, I mean, the regulator takes some action, brother, due to the action of the regulator, so I mean, retail inclusion was slow right now, I mean, we do some regular work that brother, the flow reduces or the flow increases, both can happen, like if you talk about SIP of Rs.
50, compulsory bottom on the PI, the money that will come will be of a different level It will come back, so I think inclusion is the way it is, like there is migration time in Africa, this is inclusion time, it is inclusion revolution, you kept the entire population of 100, 135, 137 crore people out of the market for so long, no one kept them out, but those who were outside are now coming together, how much will they come with time, the number of people who want to come, that also increases, I think that in the next 10 years it will be like half a billion, right now we are in 160, 70, so the road is very long, you are right, and with the low correction, correction will happen, but ultimately we are betting on the companies which are going to go forward, not the companies which are going to be stagnant and losing, so sir, India has more confidence, as you said, there is some unexpected thing, why worry about it, what else is India's tradable market, we are now Do you understand what I am saying?
The domestic savings in India are allowed to be invested only in India. They are not allowed to go out. Correct, if you are in Japan or America, then you can buy whatever you want. You can invest the money anywhere. In Japan, you do n't have to keep even a single rupee. You can buy the entire America, you can buy India.
But Indians do n't have that choice. That is why the predictable savings coming here will all remain within India. Correct. Now, seeing the drama here, people from outside are thinking that we should also come here. Is it right? If they come, then you can understand what kind of Diwali it will be. Well, sir, nowadays everyone is teaching the lesson of 2007.
They explain that look brothers, what happened in America in 2007. It was the month of September at that time. That is when the incident started. 2 prices were cut simultaneously. What happened after that, the Lehman Brothers, and in front of all of you and me, they said that the same situation is developing again.
The same Life Insurance market, the same sequence of interest rate cuts, there could be some similarity. I do n't have that much understanding of global macro, I mean I am not good at it but I have lived 2003-2008, that was a different storm, it was the rise of China, it was the rise of commodities in India worldwide, this time there is nothing like that, brother, you increased the price of iron from 00 to 000, but it has gone down, no, no, your price of iron in 2003 was 300, 350, 400 dollars, the price of HR increased to 00 thousand dollars, when it fell, it went straight from 1000 to 700, so obviously all your TISCO, JSW manufacturers are going to suffer, I am not seeing this type of connectivity in this, we or any other sector, this type of thing has happened there, what is the name of your AI etc., AI and all the tech companies, we do not have any AI company in it, due to that, something like this has happened here due to their fear, rather the tech and If they are holding it down, then brother, it will ruin them, so for that reason, is there only one connectivity here, your FIFI which turns on the market at 17-18, suppose there is some global terminal and it comes here giving a base of 50-100 billion dollars, it is selling well, if you can exit the market then it is India only, there is liquidity as well as price, both the price is liquidity, okay, who will buy, all the mutual fund people are sitting in cash or there is monthly flow, it will come, okay, what will we say, when the price falls, it will be 10-15, we will say, if you don't buy now, then buy sometime, correct, so locals will, locals will be on the slot of FI selling if it happens, yes, understand, if FI has it at 17-18, then how much will you sell after selling, no, you can sell a lot, you can sell a lot, you can sell a lot, everything is liquid, the entire L&T market has only big stocks, all big stocks, so like you understand, sell them at 1 1 on the market that is 4 half lakh crore 2 on the whole market will be sold if selling is handled and secondly what is sold, right it means billion dollars are sold and stocks are above that even if FIs, the interesting point you are making is that it is not necessary that they sell because our market is bad, their problem is related to their problem that it is the same that when the market is bad then people sell the stocks which are giving good profit, no one sells the loss making stocks, brother look at all mutual funds, there is directly or indirectly blocked money, suppose there is redemption, people are afraid of equity market, so they will redeem, so what is the choice of fund to sell and where you can sell, where you can sell, there are six countries in the market, there are 10 countries, in 10 countries the goods are not sold at all in eight countries, but now I will have to pay for that redemption, right, so I will sell only where It can be sold, there may be more selling here because this market is liquid.
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