저자: ValueInvestor · 외국인
요약 보기
데커스(UGG·Hoka·Teva 보유)는 2025년 11월 약 79달러까지 하락한 뒤 45% 반등했고, 슈퍼인베스터들의 매수 증가와 애널리스트 컨센서스 상향이 확인된다. 2028년 매출·EPS·FCF 성장이 예상되며 밸류에이션은 중위선에 접근했다. DCF 내재가치 182달러, EPS 기준 163달러로 27~35% 안전마진이 있다고 판단하며 현재 추가 매수는 하지 않지만 상승 여지가 남아 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome back to the V investor show. For today's video, I'll update you on Deckers. I haven't updated you on Deckers for a while now. The stock has been going great, especially the past few weeks. So, for today, I want to go through firstly the stock, the overview of the stock and the company lately.
Secondly, go through the latest news for Deckers as well as super investors that have been buying or selling the stock. a a quick view on financials which will end up in which will which will allow me to conclude on whether Deckers is still cheap and undervalued in my opinion. Today's video is going to be a lot shorter than my usual videos.
I want to really do a very quick update. But for those that don't know what Deckers are, Deckers are essentially a group of companies and they own three main brands. Number one being UGG, their biggest brand, followed by Hoka, a new brand, a relatively new brand that they have acquired. And since they have made that acquisition, this brand have basically become a multi-billion dollar global brand.
And then Tea as well. Dec is a company that I personally think it's a fantastic company. Everything about the business is great. Their brands are amazing. I personally own Hoka as well. It's a stock that has been heavily beaten down. In fact, back in November of 2025, Deckers was down significantly.
I mean, it was close to $80 levels, $79 levels, and I was tweeting about it. I said that this was a generational buying opportunity. And actually, since then, the stock is now up 45%. I was posting about it on X. I was posting about it on YouTube. And for my followers that have followed me, I think most of them are quite up on Deckers as well.
Now, I think there's some incredible news for the kids that not a lot of people know. The first one being the fact that a lot of super investors have been buying this company. And I'm talking the best of the best. For example, Ken Griffin has bought into Deckers. He actually had Deckers, but he has bought 500 more shares the last quarter as per his 13 filings.
Black Kuroga added to his position, but most notably the Iso significantly added during the last quarter and so did others. There were also a few sales with the company, but compared to the buys, there were a lot less sales. A few super investors sold completely out of deckers with some reducing as well.
But overall the consensus is that a lot more super investors have bought and the amount of deckers being bought was much higher than the amount of Deckers stock being sold. Now for those that don't know, this is exactly how Deckers performed the last year. It was up at alltime highs in January of 2025, hitting more than $210 a share.
And then it had a huge fear moment due to tariffs, due to uncertainty, due to weaker consumer sentiment, which which has basically dived down the stock down to almost $79. And at that point, I was buying heavily. I was buying heavily since August of this year. But I was also buying heavily back here.
And actually, my cost basis now is roughly around 95 because of my ability to lower down my average cost basis. And that's when a lot of super investors have been buying as well. And since then the stock is up more than 45%. Now there has been a lot of change in analyst consensus as well with a lot more bullish signals.
Now seven bullish analysts, six neutral and two bearish with the average target being at 122. So that raises questions whether deck is actually still undervalued or not. And I will dive into that as well by the end of this video. But overall, Wall Street does maintain a buy consensus. And there have been some recent overweight and buy targets from Barclays, from UBS, as well as hold from Jeffre.
And generally, we haven't seen a sell or underweight since late January. And this was before the earnings report. So after the earnings report, analysts are a lot more bullish on Deckers. Now in terms of what the bulls and the bears say, the bulls say that Toka has experienced tremendous growth over the past few years.
The popularity of the brand allows for higher full price sell through and profit margins. Decer's profitability and returns of investment have increased greatly since Hoka became popular. That is actually true. Hoka does have pricing power and of course they will have discounts as well. But overall, Hoka has become a global brand and people are willing to pay the premium for owning Hoka.
Secondly is a successful restructuring effort that has brought improving sales and profitability for ag. We think it will hold this position as a premium brand with strong margins. And again I think this is correct as well. Ag has become a global brand for years now especially the younger generation are buying these boots because of the brand.
The younger generation as well as others want to buy a because it's a so both of them have greater distribution geographic expansion and extension into new categories. And that is correct. They're both expanding especially into new geographies. Hocas international growth as well as ax international growth.
So that's not the US or EU but also emerging markets have been expanding much more rapidly. Now in terms of what the bears say, they say that took a known for specific styles of footwear that could fall out of favor with consumers or be adversely affected by knockoffs given the limited buyers to enter in the space.
I don't think that's true for Rag. Maybe it's easier for Hoka just because there are a lot of competitors but a has been in business for so long that really knockoffs haven't affected the brand at all. Now tea generates im now the second thing is tea generates immaterial sales and profit. Therefore the expense put into the brands could hurt hurt the financial results and distract management.
I don't think it's that big of a deal. I mean it could it could it could generate some effect and expense into the into the overall group but I don't think it's that high. And the third is as a company that relies heavily on imports to the US decisions that could reduce margin and sales. This is a bare case that has been in the works for almost a year but I think given the last three four quarters we have seen that this is no longer the case.
Now in terms of the consensus for the future, the is expected to continue to grow in revenue. I mean by 2028 the company is expected to grow to roughly 6.2 billion in revenue. The same goes with EPS. By 28 the company is expected to have EPS of roughly $8 a share. Even free cash flow is expected to grow to $1.13 billion by 2028 compared to the current $958 billion.
In terms of price to metrics, the company was trading at some point in November at all-time lows and for me that point was an extremely crucial point to continue to add tickers. But now it seems like those metrics have become more stabilized. They have approached the median line and I'm talking price to equity, price to sales, price to book and price free cash flow metrics.
They have all come much closer to the median line which could suggest that the company is now closer to its fair value. But we have to look into the financials. We have to look into the intrinsic value which is my next section. In terms of decor, I have three cases. I have the bare case, the base case and the bull case.
And I will go through my base case first which is an 8% revenue growth kar over the next 5 years, a net income and free cash flow growth of 10% and a P ratio of 16. Under those assumptions, I'm basically in line with what the management expects as well as what Wall Street expects, which is also my base case and I think it's fair.
So revenue would grow in fact from roughly 4.9 billion to 7.3 billion. Net income to 1.5 billion. So is free cash flow and profit margins will stay at high double digits are roughly 20 to 21% for the next 5 years. And under those assumptions, actually currently Deckers is still undervalued. However, it's much closer to the intrinsic value with a discount rate of 8% terminal growth of 2%.
I see an intrinsic value with the DCF method of $182 and with an EPS meth of $163. So, it gives me a marginal safety of 27 to 35% respectively, which is good enough, but it isn't as it was at more than 50% at some point in 2025. I'm not adding any more to my position cuz I have a significant position in tech.
But I do think there is still upside for this company. Now, if I was to change this to the bare case, which assumes 6% revenue growth and 7% net income and free cash flow growth at a P ratio of 14, we would still have a company that is very close to its fair value. I think this gives me some comfort that even at the very case scenario which in my mind is a scenario where the company starts showing significant effect in their ability to grow and there's still some marginal safety of 27 and 4% respectively for the DCF method and EPS method.
So overall this is a very sound business. It's a business with no debt whatsoever with a big cash position and a huge buyback pro program that they're currently doing. I think there is a lot of upside still for deck and I'm not adding anymore, but I am super happy with my current position.
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