저자: ValueInvestor채널진행자 · 외국인
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마이클 베리(Burry)가 룰루레몬을 매도하고 데커스를 매수한 것은 세금손실 확정(wash sale 회피)을 위한 '프록시 스왑'으로 해석. 룰루레몬은 매출 정체·마진 압박·경영 혼선으로 부진, 데커스는 Hoka 효과로 매출·EPS 성장과 높은 영업이익률, 무부채. 밸류에이션상 데커스 적정가치는 보수 시나리오 DCF 164달러 등으로 현재가보다 높다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Hey guys, welcome back to the Value Investor Show. Michael Berry bought shares of Deckers Corporation, and maybe we're really going to lose, because , as you know, Michael Berry isn't having the best of his career. So let's look at what actually happened. So, Michael Berry bought Lululemon in the second and third quarters of this year.
And in fact, Michael Berry just sold Lululemon and bought Deckers. Now the real question is why did he do it? And what's the difference between Lululemon and Deckers? And in this video I'm going to tell you exactly why. Why did Berry sell Lululemon and buy Deckers? And there 's actually a very good reason for this, and I wouldn't be surprised if Berry sells Deckers in the coming months.
And I will explain exactly what I mean . I'm going to be honest about all my thoughts, as well as the intrinsic value of this company. As always, if you are not subscribed, please click the subscribe button. Lately, over 10,000 of you have been watching my videos, and yet I have 5,000 subscribers. So, if you're not subscribed, this is very, very important.
You can also support the channel by getting early access to videos like this , as well as members-only chats, and even letting me evaluate two promotions of your choice. Today was another successful day for On Running and Deckers. At $27 per share, On Running was a good buy in my opinion . I am now almost at breakeven in On Running after my DCA fell from $41 per share to $33 per share.
I'm still a little behind on Deckers. My average cost is around $95-96 per share. But I'm sure Deckers will go back to $100, $120, etc. I also have an 8x growth rating on AMD stock. AMD is my best position in percentage terms. I just can't believe I bought this company back in 2025 and in just over a year I have 8x growth.
It brought me wonderful profits. I probably sold a little too early when I sold half of my position at $500 a share, but I can't complain. I still hold half of my position, and it's going very , very well. Now let's get back to this video. Michael Berry sold Lululemon. So, the news has come out that Michael Berry has taken a new position at Deckers Outdoors as part of a proxy swap, and I'm going to explain exactly what that means.
So, Michael Berry opened a new position in Deckers and swapped his Lululemon shares instead. So he sold his Lululemon shares and bought Deckers shares. What is a proxy swap and what does it really mean? Well, to put it simply , Berry is probably selling Lululemon at a loss to save on taxes, tax collection, while holding similar stocks to avoid missing out on the sector's recovery chances.
So if the sportswear sector is to recover, he doesn't want to lose anything, but he still wants to save on taxes, on the big losses he took on Lululemon. For example, let's say Berry bought Lululemon for $400 and they're now $200. He still believes in Lululemon in the industry, and over the long term, he believes these companies will outperform expectations, but he would like to use that $200 per share loss to reduce his tax expense.
So, to claim a loss, he actually has to sell the stock and claim to recover that loss through tax recovery. Now the problem lies in the money laundering rule. So, this rule says that if you sell stock at a loss and buy the same or virtually identical stock within 30 days before or after the sale, the IRS will not allow you to claim the loss for that year.
So he can't just sell Lululemon and immediately buy it back. So, the workaround for him is to sell Lululemon and then buy something similar, like Deckers Corporation , which are premium brands of athletic and lifestyle apparel and footwear. So they tend to move in the same consumer trend. And if the sector recovers, it will still benefit, and will also receive money from tax collection.
And this is what we call a proxy swap. So, after 30 days, he can potentially sell Deckers and buy Lululemon back without breaking the rules. Now let's see what Michael Bury actually did with Lululemon, because at $93 a share, Bury was probably down 50% compared to Lululemon, actually more than 50% when he sold.
It first repurchased shares in the second quarter of 2025 at an average price of $225 to $335 per share, and then doubled them in the third quarter of 2025 at an average price again of $159 to $247 per share. So, in short, its average price is between $274 and $200 per share. So, at $93 a share, Bury was probably down more than 50% compared to Lulu, and he wanted to use that to collect taxes.
But in my opinion, Deckers is still the better company . I'm going to explain exactly what I mean . First, in absolute terms, yes, Deckers probably trades at a slightly higher multiple than Lululemon, but there's a clear reason why. So, Deckers trades at a P/E ratio of 11, a price to book value of 4.8, an EV to sales ratio of 1.8 with revenue of $5.5 billion and a market cap of $11 billion.
The company is growing in the low double digits in terms of revenue and net income and has very good profitability metrics on both assets and capital efficiency. The company has no debt and has $1.6 billion in cash. Lululemon shares, by contrast, trade at 7.7 with a price- to-book value of two shares and an EV- to-sales ratio of one.
This is a company with a turnover of $10.4 billion and a revenue of $11 billion. The gross margin is actually still pretty good. Profitability indicators are also quite good. However, both revenue and net income are stagnant in terms of growth rates. The company has $1.39 billion in cash and $750 million in net debt.
So, if we compare the change in revenue over the last 12 years, Deckers' average annual revenue growth rate was 11%. As you can see, since the acquisition of Hoka, Deckers has become a very strong company, from single-digit to negative growth , then single-digit, then double-digit. Hoka was the catalyst for Deck.
And while it is, revenue is growing at low double digits or healthy levels compared to other brands. And in the case of Lululemon, Lululemon was growing at double-digit rates and then saw a huge jump in sales because of the brand's momentum, because of trendiness. And yet, since 2022, Lululemon has been on a downward trend.
And, as you can see, total revenue has increased by 1.7% since the beginning of the year. And that's why Lululemon is trending negatively. This is why Lululemon fell so much. Like Nike, Lululemon suffers from competition, from brand dynamics. And this is something that is a combination of different effects, including confusion in management.
If you compare both companies, earnings per share have grown at roughly the same rate over the past 7 years. But if you compare it over the last 3 or even 4 years, Deckers has been the better performer in terms of growing earnings per share at a much faster rate than Lululemon. Operating margins have also been growing at a healthy level for Deckers, now at 23%.
In the case of Lululemon, the figures have been rising and falling, and recently there has been a downward trend. The same applies to gross profit margin. Gross margin was much healthier. Well, in the case of Deckers, they are constantly improving their operating leverage . In the case of Lululemon, there is a downward trend that has become more noticeable recently.
So, in short, there are three reasons why I think Deckers is a better company than Lululemon. Deckers' revenue in 2026 grew by 10% and earnings per share by 11% compared to the same period last year. In contrast, Lululemon's financial sales were virtually flat or slightly negative, and revenue in North America fell 3% in the most recent quarter.
So, there is a gap between winners and losers here. Profitability and discipline, as I said, Deckers has managed inventory quite well and maintained its gross margin, while Lululemon's margin has been under pressure due to tariffs, due to higher operating expenses, and management expects further declines, as has Nike.
One recent comparison , in fact, showed that Lululemon's profits were down 35% compared to about 1% at Deckers. And finally, it's brand diversification and dynamics. Deckers is not dependent on one brand. They own both Hoka and Ugg, as well as some other smaller brands, and this allows them to stand out through high demand, product innovation, and growing brand loyalty, while also being diversified.
Whereas Lululemon is one brand, one story, trying to regain its edge, especially in its core US market. Finally, let's look at the intrinsic value of these companies. For Deckers , in my bearish scenario, uh, for Deckers, in my bearish scenario, where I assume revenue growth of 3%CAGR over the next 5 years and net income growth of 2% CAGR over the next 5 years at a P/E multiple of 10, which I think would be fair if that were the case, at a discount rate of 8%, which to me is fair, given the fact that the company has no debt, the company is fairly valued at the P/E method.
Although, using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, the intrinsic value is $164 per share, which assumes a margin of safety or growth potential of 100%. I think this is a very pessimistic scenario, so let's also consider the base case. In my base case scenario for Deckers, I assume revenue growth of 6%, which I think is very fair.
And net income growth of 7% as the company repurchases shares and also improves its operating leverage . At a coefficient of 14, Deckers is severely misjudged. The intrinsic value using the DCF method is $200, while using the EPS method it is $138. And I'm still assuming a relatively conservative P-factor that's much lower than historical.
But suppose that if the assumptions were true, the P coefficient of 14 would be fair, even though I could assume that it was not. And that gives you a huge margin of safety. So overall , I think Deckers is the more solid position here. They are more diversified and have some margin of safety at the current price, which confirms that Deckers has a much better chance than Lululemon.
And imagine what will happen when macroeconomic headwinds become favorable, and when Deckers continues to expand into new markets. Thank you very much for your attention, guys, and as always, see you next time.
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