저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
짐 로저스는 연준이 대선 이후(12월 회의 전후)에 금리를 올릴 가능성이 높다고 본다. 한두 차례 인상은 시장에 큰 타격이 아니지만, 3~4번째 인상부터 시장이 흔들릴 수 있어 2017~2018년 조정을 우려한다. 신흥국(인도 포함)은 연준 인상 이후 단기적으로 부정적 영향을 받을 것으로 봤다. 다만 인도 증시는 국제 투자자들이 어느 정도 발달한 시장으로 보기 때문에 다른 시장과 크게 다르지 않다고 평가했다. 인도의 GST 도입은 긍정적으로 언급됐다. 원자재 중에는 석유가 바닥을 형성하는 과정이라고 봤지만 지금 당장 사기보다는 1~3년 뒤 돌아보면 바닥이었다고 알게 될 것이라 했다. 금은 내년쯤 본격적으로 움직일 것으로 보며, 강한 달러가 부담이라고 했다. 본인은 금을 보유하지만 추가 매수는 하지 않고 팔지도 않는다고 밝혔다. 미국 대선 후보에 대해서는 트럼프와 클린턴 모두 지지하지 않는다고 했다. 트럼프의 무역전쟁 구상은 역사적으로 불황과 전쟁으로 이어진 사례가 많아 시장에 위험하다고 봤다. 미국 증시는 지수가 견조하지만 시장 폭(advance-decline)이 좋지 않아 전 세계 대부분 시장은 올해 부진하다는 진단이다. 전반적으로 단기 금리 인상과 대선 이후 변동성, 무역 갈등 리스크를 경계하는 결론이다.
다듬은 글
Namaskar abdication she was a layman with a pallet on the loose a man who render Kumar shave that lightness Abeka swagger belVita hafta comes early can now especially at the canter state x Pataca dinner expire ugly the Gianni is cityscape brennidon measurement Waseca we can adapt it Matty Jake Jenna Ian kabayan just Nick but physical of the king by that is button massive curve they give as they bring he he bring he orsatti SOT I think confuse instead of controlling capital if I skip or carry so much lean against Roccat then big man as this throws up a scheme para the Cadillac ugly Specter t signature 8 590 castanet the game thank you speaking maybe a hope tanita many aki are proposed oblique non-sugar Pelle his manager the key belly which is many other key cachaca Varco rupee key cruising through secretly rupena comes ricca-san KTM do city's fi statistics cool again what make happen hit a lick and options covers up NASA disk you should watch just not the winner this I weeks structures edges option statistics overhead what really comes or not biblical what a silly make cautious approach the kitchen or Isaac Tempe approached the kitchen and yes but they get in extra bullish Matsuyama hot bullish mantra yoga which led Odin camera make our victims ricca-san kid tourism bearishness I eight six two zero eight six three optic partner who topped aqua hot days Monica Monica Gina who separated the cable hot long for him at la viga colitis hobby where he puts McCarthy strong language Riyadh rakissa Tom bacillus K 8 4 9 0 8 5 9 0 as per the if I've had double zero as for the options 36 subcircuit Eagles Omega Rodrick a meet a decision made nifty Bank nakum's ricca-san kid here how apke subset must move index to have a lotta wood for seconds over that wellness has our egg soken ishida body here but at his subsistence or we cannot kill a joke use and subsequently NEPA focus on Valerie Pater's at capacity satanic especially Joe Fred consist apeman's else Chabad behaved in US markets Carla haka saw our ad Asian markets Kulik as him a religion typical Asian markets he should watch it when he comes over we hit Nikki coding Deepika quarterback is a recitation be able to run negatives raja baath karenge jenny didn't come beyond Jacksonville maybe don't give statements to spit was that Cardenas Erica Vita they can put s ax cos encouraging couch alig objects jackson hole by take monena kal chasm the Palin Asuna who Janet Yellen Keith rough shape South Taranaki labor market was so the heart must booty cousin Kate a mango person collects shake a curry babe gel post even is ragged Oh person collection Bay is Kilowog very low Cobra three say economy comas booty million leaking each statement keeper is latina but neither the rebar hanneke a new cool hey just a twenty okay knocking hot cautious approach kid roof a bicycle thing in portfolio manager school Yuki o media Hickey is Salman egg Bharata to let mock the hip-hop kabuki is cubic with clarity ringing yeah a bizarre jokingly watch Karev oh ye k op tuber normal be the presidential elections roomie who's that I get Tom tuck behind area but I read an urban high costs approach delegate Escobar either every team took his quantum say wedding he yeah K knocking up major your trigger points will go world map its Kaluga nutria october-december that Casa may have to tap that char bad jobs report Archie who me I got a job report Satya too bad there but Nikki some key to probability or haiku through you know drag it well Hal just statements I need the actual whole about Texas who's my a given a left back when not there but kids quantum say what you're burning e SP uncertainty Holika Jimmy cover I was given this letter oh say X smart pullback Jay whoa American markets miserable visible tally cannot Asian market should watch oh yeah whoa negative 2 p.m.
ok oh yeah the cue ball kind of behavior Tana Shu Kabakov Alibaba chanita or make a saccade dunno but Wall Street knee comes weakest and Katie Dow Jones bill Kodaka 50 Dima cottage car key whoa ha sido para with technical pull back up again a specialist Atticus man hey watch it clinically or I think in key search in key so much or in cave active in case statements go bizarre to have awkward are 10 min market so Wall Street who ever dressed of ratio but that what buddy kisses want ahead I'm I said mr.
Jim wasn't about connect respect mister just thanks for joining us instead laser talking to you always so the entire wall is now focusing on the Fed in their statement what exactly is the possibility what is that what's your take on the possibility of rate hike in the u.s. sir hello I would so that's a leading voice sorry hello sir yeah are you getting away sir are you speaking this with your larger you speaking to me Jim Rogers yes I am speaking from India I mean yes whether what do I see I see well the Federal Reserve in the in the United States will be raising interest rates after the election that will have an effect on world markets but it wasn't a temporary effect it's only after the third time that they raise interest rates if we really start to start to worry then we should be very very very worried in America but everywhere including India okay mr.
robustus there is no clarity on the exact timeline of the rate hike if we go through by the Gildan statement but are you saying they strong probability of rate hike in December yes it's not necessarily in December but it will be after the election you know their meeting is scheduled for December when they can meet they can raise it raise or lower interest rates whenever they want to but I would suspect it will be at the regular meeting in December because the election will then be a behind but mr.
which is exactly what sir approach towards emerging markets I mean no you know in India we are doing it approximately I mean we were up about 15 to 16 percent after breaks it and because of the global liquidity choosing the Indian markets do you think that the process of rate hike in u.s. will will put high degree of pressure in Indian markets and emerging markets as well there there are dozens of the course of emerging market but yes most will be affected by the race the rising interest rates in the US but as I said and he would only be a temporary before easy if the history shows that you it's really the third or fourth central bank increase in interest rates and one really has to worry the first wouldn't hurt the second one hurt that they use these markets usually recover so I would suspect that emerging markets including India will be affected negatively when they raise interest rates in December but if there will be a recovery but after that you should be very worried about 2017 and 2018 okay but how much don't say the other expecting union markets if you talk about in United solutions the Indian market is is more or less the same as other markets these days because international investors look upon you and as a reasonably developed market I don't think most international investors differentiate that much yes there's some good things happening in India mr.
Moody finally finally has done a brilliant thing with his GST we hope I mean they haven't gone through yet but we hope they actually happen not good with the central bank but at least it's not a huge negative so maybe mr. moody is finally but mister all goes as you said keep the global markets are heading towards a strong profit looking a strong sell-off and the reflection can be say Malinin markets especially in 2017 and 2018 so does that mean that we can see some safe buying coming in in gold or in silver like in commodities well what we'll have oil is in the process of making these father mr.
complicated bottom like yes so that is making a bottom I would necessarily buy oil right now but it will be looked back a year or two or three from now we will see that this was the bottom in oil it has been developing gold I'm not so sure I think those began more in the next year or two partly because the dollar will be u.s.
dollar will be strong but I own gold I'm not buying this but I'm certainly not self person but selling any circumstances and that it high possibility do you think this disposability is lying in the month of September as well in any Kissin as I said I would expect there's nothing to happen in September okay this is the election and maybe I'll be wrong but central banks are pretty simple people but I want to repeat after you start seeing interest rates going higher Oh having problems most markets are down this year as you probably know the American averages are doing okay but most modern markets around the world are doing badly especially if you look at the breadth the advance decline okay in the US market okay it's not doing well with the breath okay socially ask you one thing who is your preferred buy anything yeah who is your preferred presidential candidate in US and in WA and why exactly I will not be either of the two if mr.
Trump is selected and if he does what he says he's going to do you mean bankruptcy war he made was the wrong way to set the bankruptcy and offensive war does Clinton is just as bad if not worse he'll just take longer she has no clue what she's doing she will also ruin the American and world economy so I will not vote for either of them both a protest vote I don't want to wait like that my vote on the lesser of two evils the messer of two evils is still an evil but Mr algas if Republican nominee for president wins and implements as a currency slated policies what impact you see on financial markets which currently the dollar exactly exactly my question is a gift Republican nominee wins for president what an implement it's currently like the policies he's stating right now if he implements it boaster win if that happens what impact do you see on financial markets well mr.
Trump has said he's going to have trade wars with China with Mexico and with several other people he has said it many times and he is dead an atom again he's dead it's going to be tough trade wars with very high house if he means that that has always throughout history led to economic problems with bankruptcy depression and often to war and one of the problems of history is most people do not learn the lessons of history including mr.
Trump he has no clue even if he knows his - he doesn't know what it means so bank tariffs trade wars have always throughout history there's never been a case plan as it caused problems but mr. Trump it's not that he's going to do it he's selected I'm sure that they will start very quickly which is one reason I'm worried about the market the next couple here no thanks mr.
Ergas for talking to us thank you so much for being on this show - yeah bunch of you a mr. araga Scavo bought a beer - fhf global equities happened in inequities our own Cabana Hecky November we do elections have us and presidential elections okay bath December May rate hike is your probability of a coffee high or a rash moves your body will be cuff important think I gave me like a septum but I possibility heck is you can I make an effector I mean you have with the valley state of confusion aggregate subset choten kata Kay McKie cv presidential candidate khabar ma kuch bhi na venkata here the financial market matura chaos crisis or war situation
Comments 0