저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
2021년 4월 영상으로, 정치가 주식시장에 미치는 영향은 제한적이라는 결론이다. 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측이나 매매 권유는 없다. 정치와 시장의 구분: 정치 뉴스의 떠들썩함과 실제 자본시장 영향은 다르다. 시장에 실질적으로 영향을 주는 것은 대형 논쟁적 입법이며, 행정명령 변경의 경제적 영향은 3~30개월 기간에 크지 않다. 미국 정치 교착: 2021년 초 민주당 행정부 첫해 의회 교착은 역대급이며, 하원·상원 모두 신임 민주당 대통령 기준 극소 다수 여건이다. 상원 내 중도 성향 의원들의 영향력이 크다. 글로벌 교착: 이탈리아 정부 구성 난항, 네덜란드 선거, 9월 독일 선거(메르켈 후임 부재) 등 전 세계적으로 교착이 확산되어 있으나, 이는 자본시장이 중시하는 불확실성 감소 측면에서 큰 충격은 아니라는 입장이다. 이념과 시장: 투자자 개인의 정치 이념은 대부분 시장에 이미 선반영되어 있으며, 방송(MSNBC, Fox)은 특정 청중을 겨냥한 편향된 내용을 제공한다. 오바마·트럼프 당선 초기와 바이든 집권 후 시장이 좋았던 사례는 이념보다 '불확실성 감소'가 시장을 움직인다는 근거로 제시된다. 불매운동 비판: 특정 기업 불매는 주가를 낮춰 해당 기업의 자금 조달을 오히려 쉽게 만들므로 역효과이며, 사회 문제는 입법과 정부를 통해 해결하는 것이 효과적이라고 주장한다. 결론: 2021~2022년에는 큰 입법 변화가 적을 것이므로 흥분을 줄이고 장기적으로 큰 그림을 보라는 조언이다. 출연자 본인의 정치 성향은 밝히지 않는 것이 원칙이라고 말한다.
다듬은 글
Following the 2020 us elections. What's our view on how us politics is likely to influence stocks moving forward and in today's politically charged world, how do my values impact my investments? And finally, what about global politics? How do they play in. But we view politics differently than most people do, and we'd be a lot of things differently than most people do.
But the reality as Jeff alluded to earlier is a separation in my view, as the way you should think about politics. There's the part about politics, which is the yak yak and the excitement that is maybe a little bit like watching the crowd at a big time wrestling mat. Uh, and then there's the part that actually impacts commerce.
And over the three to 30 month timeframe, the capital markets in any material way, which is what gets changed, that creates uncertainty and alteration of business planning. And in the United States, as Jeff alluded to earlier, there is this unprecedented gridlock for this point in a democratic administration, that house, a house of representatives as the thinnest margins for a new Democrat, uh, since 1893, the, uh, Senate as the thinnest margins for a new democratic president since, and I know all of you recall this very well, but the, uh, initial administration of Grover Cleveland and, uh, 1885, uh, we all recall those days warmly.
The fact is fact is that this for a first year of a president's term in a democratic administration is as gridlocked as we have ever seen. Wow. And it's how Grover Cleveland was the first democratic president, uh, after the civil war. And when we think about what really impact capital markets, it's changes in big controversial legislation, pretty much completely there's other things, but they're littler much littler.
So for example, as you've already seen, the Biden administration has issued quite a lot of executive orders coming out the gate, and they said they would, uh, but most of them and people don't quite get this it's overly simple and it's not perfectly true, but it's mostly true. Most of them simply undo executive orders that previously president Trump had issued, which most of them undid previous executive orders that formerly president Obama had done.
And the total net consequence of that to the economic reality, that impact capital markets over the three to 30 is not terribly huge and small. The fact is in today's world, for example, in the Senate, uh, in a not literal sense, but closer to a relatively conservative Democrat Senator Joe mansion is arguably the kingpin of the Senate, arguably has more power than Chuck Schumer takes one vote, stopped Democrats from passing anything, but then there's also other ones like Senator cinema and actually a handful that on this, that, and the other, thinking about their own futures, uh, won't necessarily be in alignment with the democratic party, creating the effect of gridlock in that first year.
But to the third part of, uh, your question, Jessica, before I get to the second part, this is also an unusual time in that with very high yak yak. He did divisive hostile commentary from one side of spectrum to the other side of spectrums inside America and globally gridlock is more widespread globally than ever.
You've got, uh, chuge amount of hand-waving and excitement in Italy over their failed government and the move to try to get Mario Draghi, to be out of retirement, which he is doing to try to form a government. But this government, if it gets formed will be a, do nothing government for legislation. Uh, we've got elections coming up in Holland, which will create nothing.
We have, uh, issues in country after country and in September, you've got German elections. They similarly are as pancaked in terms of ideological thrust. As you can get a multi-party coalition, a so-called grand coalition, there will have a do nothing quality to it. That's virtually unprecedented. And there is no one with the cloud in Germany with the popularity, with the grab a tops to be able to replace the position that Angela Merkel had.
The fact is bricks over, and there's again, lots of yak yak in Britain, nothing much happening that impacts the concerns capital markets care about. Uh, this is also true in Austria. This is true in France. Uh, this is true, uh, across most of Scandinavia, this is true in a different way, but true in Japan.
Uh, and, and that global gridlock creates this process of relatively unexpected, but falling on certainty and the ability of businesses to hold a steady or course moving forward through this 20, 21 timeframe. Uh, the part about the questions of, uh, your political ideology, Jessica. Well, you know, actually, uh, just between you and I, I don't know your political ideology and, uh, I don't think I need to, to answer your question, but the fact of the matter is that, uh, you know, I think probably almost everyone that's going to be watching this video has their own political ideology.
And there's a couple of points to remember about this. Uh, and some of them, I think you probably know, we would say, and maybe some of them, you don't know, we would say one of them is that when you look for example at America, uh, to a very fine degree, how America is divided the makeup of the division, the geographic separations of where things lean more to the left and more to the right and all that kind of stuff is exceptionally well-known.
And therefore, because markets pre price, all widely known is pre priced, secondarily, your own views for most people tend not to be unique. They tend to be parallel to a lot of other people that fall into that pre price mode. So for example, that's exactly why we have MSNBC and Fox TV, Fox news. They're just pandering to different audiences.
I'm going to be real. John does tier, but most of what you would hear in places like that is, well, maybe you get more real news out of watching reruns of the Flintstones. The fact of the matter is that most of this stuff is coming from a place. If you watch it, they know you're coming from that place too.
And they're giving you an awful lot of half-truths and often non-truths regardless of what you're watching, because that's what that's devolved into in this timeframe. So let me go to a different point. You may not like me saying that, but it's true. You, you are in my view more than entitled to your video logical views.
I keep mine to myself basically. So, and I worked very hard to make sure they don't seep into, um, our market outlooks. I encourage you to do the same. Let me say this differently. A lot of people today are either of the left and don't like the right or have the right. And don't like the left. You know that, but I just want you to know that when Obama was elected, initially the market did well.
A lot of people didn't think that would happen. Most of them on the other side of the political spectrum, when president Trump was elected market did really well. Initially most people on the left side of the political spectrum, that they were surprised by that. And they didn't expect that. You remember, I hope you remember that the initial view was, if he's elected boy, the mortgage is going to go to that kind of hand basket.
And then of course now president Biden and Mark has been doing well. Why? Because of what Jeff referenced earlier in the beginning, falling uncertainty. It's the falling uncertainty that markets worry about, not the ideology. Now let me just go to a point that people never say used to be not so much recently, there was quite a lot a desire on the part of some people for particular causes to boycott certain stocks, boycott stock X because they do bad stuff.
I get the emotion. The act is actually counterproductive every which way, but loose. If the stock is going to do well, it's counterproductive to your portfolio returns, depredation. And if you could get it, everybody, which you can't, the boy caught that stock and drive down the price, drive it down, drive it down, drive it down, drive it down.
You would actually free them to be able to do all the things you think are terrible because you set them up to be able to arrange alternate financing more easily, go down. That path. Boycotting is never worked. It's never accomplished the goal at boycotters hope it will in its fundamental real world.
Reality. On the other side of the coin in the real world, I think most of those activities don't help much the way you deal with that stuff is through legislation and the government and those types of things. Not so much by doing things like boycotting. And I encourage regardless whether you're on the left side of the political spectrum or the right side of the political spectrum.
When you think about the other side, this is a really good time to take a deep breath and remember whatever this stuff is, legislatively, which is the most important part in big ways. Little is going to happen in 2021, 2022, and get less excited than places like Fox news and MSNBC, regardless of what your ideology is, want to drive you toward being, this is a good time to kind of keep your eye on the ball overall, because overall it's not really such a bad world.
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