Ken Fisher: Genießen Sie den Bullenmarkt 2021, aber bleiben Sie wachsam

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so forecasting is uh always tricky and uh every year at your end people are prone to want to ask what do you see for the year ahead and i think it's gonna be a pretty good year uh it may be the last pretty good year of this what i consider to be very long bull market or it may not one of the things that we've done in our analysis my analysis of what went on in 2020 necessary to review the year but we saw real time as it was happening is that we recognized that bear market as technically a bear market because it was big enough in its magnitude drop to qualify as a bear market by the standards by which bear markets are measured but it was so short and driven by such different features than traditional bear markets that it actually acted in almost every respect more like a significantly maybe hugely oversized market correction in a typical v pattern than in a than a normal bear market does a normal bear market starts off gently rolls along for a long time with some volatility cascades in the back one third of its duration to generate two-thirds of the drop of the total peak to trough decline and precedes a global economic recession of a relatively normal type that is centered around overcoming and rectifying prior cycled excesses of one form or another this one was none of that this one was the fastest bear market off an all-time high in history by any measure it was driven by the market needing to pre-price super fast what would soon be governmental lockdowns all over the world to fight covet and you know that and literally in this drop from february to march 23rd did not do what most bear markets normally do which is to take more marginal companies as stocks and grind them slowly into the ground instead on the way down growth did better than value big did better than small and in the initial bounce off the bottom growth did better than value and big did better than small which does not happen when new bull markets begin and in that we've continued to see as in the period since then growth over all time better than value even though much of the media tells you and wrongly that value is doing better than growth now they kind of got that wrong once they got the story wrong they never quite got it right but the fact is that this market has acted off the bottom more like the reaction after correction late in a bull market even though it was technically a bear market then normal bear markets really act then real bear markets really act and so the markets and the economy are more like acting like because this did not correct prior excesses this did not have the normal patterns it's it's acting more like an extension of the very long pole market that we've had since march 2009 and in that as we looked forward we expect to see this process of sentiment continuing to improve one sentiment in the last third of a bull market starts accelerating which it clearly has it tends to do that for a good long time and that's what we're seeing right now that some people are confusing with extent euphoria we're moving toward euphoria we haven't gotten there yet and the last years of bull markets are often accelerating and very powerfully positive we're looking at the first year of a president's term where a democrat has won and taken uh the house and the senate uh the reality is that there's only one negative first year for president's term uh since um um world war ii and that was jimmy carter's first year which is only a negative 7.4 percent uh in the rest of the years they're all double-digit positive people fear business oriented folk and investors often being more leaning to the right than leading to the left tend to often fear the incoming democrat and then the incoming democrat has trouble getting as much of what he wanted to do as president through congress as people might have thought and that effect becomes a positive surprise in the inaugural year in inaugural in the first and second years of president's terms returns are typically much more varied than in the third and fourth years of president's terms but when they're not negative they've been hugely positive and i don't think this is going to be a negative here therefore it should be a good strong year the fact is that that improving sentiment continues for a good long time even after you get to euphoria the bull market continues for a reasonable period of time how long too early to tell but looking at when we started to warm up in sentiment which is in the back half of 2020 we ought to be seeing sentiment improving irregularly through the end of 2021 and that gets us into 2022 and i never make projections or forecasts more than about a year at a time but this should be a pretty good year you should enjoy it you should not let yourself get too frightened by the things that appear to be bubblicious and overly good it's a time to get more careful and not let yourself be chasing heat and overly greedy but you do want to stay in the market and enjoy this good time