Jeremy Grantham: "Next Year Is Very DANGEROUS For The Stock Market"

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Jeremy Grantham은 2023~2024년 경기침체 가능성을 경고하며 자산가격 하락과 금리 고착을 전망한다. 경기침체 전망: 2023년 시작 가능성, 2024년까지 지속 우려. 연준이 침체가 끝났다고 보는 낙관론에 회의적이며 연준은 침체를 제대로 예측한 적이 없다고 주장. 인플레이션: 연준(파월)의 인플레이션 억제 성과를 통제 범위를 벗어난 결과로 보며, 향후 인플레이션이 과거 10년 평균보다 높게 유지될 것으로 봄. 기술주·AI 거품: 2021년 기술 거품이 완전히 꺼지지 않았으며 인공지능에 더 작은 거품이 형성 중이라고 지적. 사람들이 이익을 놓칠까 두려워 거품에 빠진다고 설명. 금리와 주택·자동차: 금리가 3%에서 7% 이상으로 오르며 주택 구매력이 크게 줄었고, 금리 하락 전망은 어둡다. 신차 평균가 약 5만 달러, 자동차 대출 월 약 800달러 이상으로 부담 증가. 섹터: 유틸리티(PER 약 16배)·필수소비재(약 19배) 등 방어주 선호, 임의소비재는 기술적 지표와 시장 폭이 악화. 4분기 실질 개인소비지출 마이너스 전망 언급. 신용카드: 금리 20%대 중반(26.6%) 기록, 미국 신용카드 부채 약 1조 달러 규모로 가계 부담 가중. 역사적 비교: 2000년 닷컴 버블, 2008년 주택 버블, 일본 1990년대 주식·부동산 동시 버블 붕괴 사례를 들어 동시 버블 붕괴의 위험을 경고. 결론적으로 주식·채권 등 자산가격 전반에 불리한 환경을 경고하는 영상이다.

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01. are we on the verge of a financial storm in the last year and a half Jeremy Grantham a renowned Financial Guru has been sounding the alarm not once but twice now for the third time he's speaking out even though he typically avoids interviews Jeremy Grantham co-founder of the massive GMO LLC asset management firm which oversees over $100 billion in assets is an 84-year-old Powerhouse his age doesn't slow him down and he looks amazing for his years but it's not his Vitality that makes him headlines it's his diet predictions as a seasoned Observer of market bubbles Grant him his warning of a looming recession he believes his downturn will last well into 2024 indicating that it may be an extended ordeal to add to the Intrigue He suggests it might even kick off in 2023 causing ripples across the financial landscape but what does this mean for us well according to grantom it spells trouble for asset prices including the stock and possibly even the bond market which has already been under stress the implications are clear parce yourself for turbulent times ahead Jeremy Grantham has a track record for foreseeing finan fincial crisises like the dot crash in 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis in the 2021 Tech bubble now once again he's sounding the alarm and it's time to pay attention Grantham disagrees with the federal reserve's recent optimism as they claim the recession is behind us he's skeptical of their track record asserting that they've never correctly predicted a recession especially the ones following major Financial bubbles moreover grantom isn't a fan of how chairi Federal Reserve J pal has been dealing with inflation He suggests that the recent success in controlling inflation is beyond power control and he sees inflation remaining higher than the average of the past decade in essence Gram's forecast suggests that we're likely heading for a recession possibly starting in 2023 with ongoing repercussions into 2024 the recent Tech bubble may not have completely deflated and there's a smaller bubble emerging in artificial intelligence why do people always seem to fall for these bubbles it's human nature people see the stock market surging and they fear missing out on something big it's that irresistible temptation of watching your neighbors get rich that drives these bubbles in essence it's human psychology at play let's break down the impact of rising interest rates on mortgages and car loans in an interview Jeremy Grantham talks about interest rates having surged from 3% to over 7% here's what it means for those looking to buy a home when interest rates rise your purchasing power for a home decreases in simple terms 2 years ago you could afford a $375,000 house with a 3% interest rate but with rates now over 7% your affordability dropped significantly this is significant blow for potential home buyers the outlook for interest rates isn't optimistic the interview suggests that rates are unlikely to decrease soon as there is a consensus that they will continue to rise this isn't good news for the economy of a people trying to buy homes the interview also touches on car loans the average price of a new car is now around $50,000 and with interest rates on the rise car loan payments are increasing as well payments for car loans are averaging about $800 a month with some people even paying over $1,000 for people who need loans to buy cars these Rising rates are concerning the surge in interest rates has significant implications for the housing market making it harder for people to afford homes it also affects the affordability of new cars impacting people's finances the interview suggests that these Trends aren't likely to reverse anytime soon which is a cause of concern in the current economic landscape the housing market soaring interest rates present a challenge situation for potential buyers one option for buyers facing this dilemma is to consider adjustable rate mortgages which provide an initial period of lower rates offering some temporary relief however this comes with the trade-off of less stability and the uncertainty of future adjustments some people are willing to take this route essentially dating the rate while committing to the house purchase they might plan to refinance down the road when rates are more favorable nevertheless it's important to note that the traditional 30-year fix rate mortgage is generally considered the best gauge of affordability betting on refinancing carries risk especially if rates don't move as expected or if unforeseen circumstances arise such as a job loss or the need to sell the house moreover home builders and sellers are attempting to ease the burden on buyers by offering incentives like rake buy Downs to soften the impact of high interest rates in a recent podcast interview with Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley he discusses the overvaluation of the stock market and its potential impact on the economy Wilson highlights that earnings are not keeping Pace with stock prices resulting in elevated valuations especially in the context of Rising interest rates as a response to the post Federal Reserve meeting and the rise in rates Equity markets have exhibited significant reactions possibly reflecting a shift from a higher for longer perspective to a late cycle economic backdrop this transition is supported by market internals with factors like highquality balance sheets and defensive sectors outperforming cyclicals in the current economic landscape High interest rates are starting to take their toll in several ways one of these is a preference for defensive sectors in the stock market these sectors like utilities and consumer staples are seeing different valuations based on their absolute multiples utilities are trading at 16 times earnings which is relatively cheaper while consumer staples are trading at 19 times earnings making them relatively more expensive nevertheless when compared to historical and Market averages both utilities and consumed Staples are at cheaper end of the spectrum Healthcare which is slightly higher relative valuation is still within the bounds of historical Norms overall valuations for defensive sectors remain reasonable making them attractive in the current climate on the other hand there are challenges of consumer discretionary stocks the technical aspects and Market breadth of these stocks are under pressure reflecting a Slowdown in consumer spending various factors contribute to this including rising delinquencies in certain households increased gas prices and weakening housing sector data economists are even forecasting negative real personal consumption expenditure growth in the fourth quarter with a subdued recovery after that the travel and level industry industry which has been a bright spot might also be losing its shine furthermore credit card interest rates are hitting record highs with rates of 20% or even higher for those who carry credit card balances this is a significant burden when making payments a substantial portion often goes towards interest leaving only a fraction of the principal balance with approximately a trillion dollars of credit card debt in the US this issue is far from disappearing anytime soon this presents additional challenges for people who are already struggling financially the economic landscape is becoming increasingly complex with Rising interest rates affecting various sectors including housing consumer spending and credit card debt the situation is far from ideal and warrants careful consideration for those affected by these changes inflation is hitting hard affecting items from the gas pump to the grocery aisle in July personal expenditures surged 3.3% from a year ago leading to higher expenses for pharmaceuticals Recreation groceries and clothing amid these Financial challenges more people are resorting to credit cards which carry High interest rates 26.6% as a result many individuals struggling to pay their credit card bills despite the record levels of credit card debt Americans continue to spend with July beinging a nearly 1% increase from the previous year the situation raises questions about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further as a measure to combat inflation for investors keeping up with these economic factors in Market developments is Paramount it's vital to stay well informed and adapt investment strategies when needed Jeremy grantom expressed concerns about parallels of between current market conditions and previous financial crisis let's get into the specifics of these incidents more clarity in 2000 there was a significant explosion in prices of technology stocks which was followed by a sharp crash this led to substantial losses for investors and the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2008 there was a painful decline in the US housing market which nearly caused the collapse of the banking system this triggered the global financial crisis Grandam draws parallels to Japan's experience in the early 1990s when they had simultaneous bubbles in both stock and real estate markets this led to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and is often referred to as Japan's last decades he's concerned that attempts to burst bubbles in both the stock and real estate market simultaneously could have dire consequences as seen in Japan's history Gram's warnings highlight the potential risk of excessive speculation and inflated asset prices in both the stock and real estate markets what are your thoughts on this matter let us know your thoughts in the comments section thanks for watching