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they and great to have you with I would to be here could you have published the same notes basically prior to the tweet the infamous tweet I mean was anything different in your view Oh guys Indy risked in any way after it's gone through that process I think it has been the risk in terms of when you looked at what potentially could happen especially with Musk potentially not as CEO I think define you know that was sort of ultimately lower than expected I think now it's really about them turn the corner and profitability I mean that's been the game changer you look what happened 3q look based on our analysis and when we mild us out 2030 we believe this is the comments gonna transform autos very similar as Apple has transformed smartphones and I just view this as a pivotal inflection point in the Tesla story what if the company has to raise money do you think that's out of the picture we know is that part of your 440 thesis yeah so we have about a 30 percent chance that they'll have to raise call it about two billion in our opinion ultimately based on our model right here and the profitability is they turn the corner we do not think that a capital raise on the horizon and that's something that's been a dark cloud over the stock and you're just you're starting to see investors now you look out the next 5-10 years where can this stock go and in our opinion you know 448 things for starters because you you get these bottlenecks cleared you look at China you could start looking at a stock with a five in front well I was looking for the earnings piece of this to get to the 440 dollar price target so you think 22 dollars of earnings power by 2025 that's looking a long ways out you look from a disruptive technology perspective very similar how we viewed Apple many years ago if you look at Tesla in 2019 2020 earnings you don't buy the stock here no you have to have a much more normalized earnings where this goes with model 3 production especially with Europe and China is starting to hit the ground running and everything we're seeing out of Fremont Giga and China in our opinion it's all the talons right now as investors see the forest for the trees in the stock do you believe that they're producing a thousand model 3 is a day yeah so right that's sort of key right to believing that the free cash flow is there to believing that there won't be a raise necessary etc yeah I mean all of our checks you know from Giga as well as free men we continue to think based on normalized production right here it's it's right now about 6500 7000 per week ultimately the question is can they get to 10k we think they can get there especially as you start to see Giga 3 in Shanghai but right now is about as comfortable that we fell in the Tesla store and I think I look out you look at sort of why the stocks reacting the way it is in a tough tack tape it's because you look at the model 3 production where this thing could go in our opinions the stock that rear eights higher with risk still there meaning the fact that it's having a great third quarter fourth quarter even as everybody else in tech has been slamming it and what is your perspective on this stock mo talking this is a moment ago but there's a split between whether it's viewed as an auto company or a technology company you have to view it as the ladder to justify these kinds of price tories yeah as an auto you who view is over valid and you think that there's no way you own it I view it as a disruptive technology and in our opinion as disruptive a technology company as we've seen since Apple go back 2007 and in the next decade this is going to be a game changer stock and that's why it's all about that free cash from profitability we look out five six seven years by the way you mentioned Apple you're buying it here but we continue to believe it's all about it's all about the serve but all about the install base 350 million we believe ultimately 10 million units came out of China that didn't come in ultimate I think that star and B fact on the street numbers we be buying that continued here and I think the bad news is baked in as as we've seen with the street numbers you
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