저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라는 이익 전환점에 들어섰고 장기적으로 자동차를 바꾸는 파괴적 기술주로 봐야 하며 현재 매수 관점이다. [투자의견·목표가] 목표가 440달러(12개월 이상 관점), 2025년 주당순이익 약 22달러를 근거로 제시. 5~10년 관점에서 주가가 500달러대까지 갈 수 있다고 언급. [이익 전환] 3분기 실적이 기대 이상이었고, 흑자 전환(수익성 전환)이 게임체인저라고 강조. 과거 악재였던 머스크 리스크(CEO 교체 가능성)는 예상보다 낮은 영향이었다고 평가. [자금조달 리스크] 약 30% 확률로 약 20억 달러 규모 자본 조달이 필요할 수 있다고 보지만, 수익성 전환이 이뤄지면 추가 자금조달은 없을 것으로 판단. 자금조달 우려가 주가의 먹구름이었다고 설명. [생산량·수요] 모델3 생산량은 현재 주당 약 6,500~7,000대이며, 1만대 도달 가능하다고 봄. 유럽·중국 판매 확대와 상하이 기가팩토리 가동을 긍정 요인으로 제시. [밸류에이션·관점 차이] 자동차 회사로 보면 밸류에이션이 과도하지만, 2007년 애플급 파괴적 기술기업으로 보면 정당화 가능하다고 주장. 서비스 및 설치기반(3.5억 대 가정 언급) 확대가 핵심이라고 설명. [주가 반응] 기술주 전반이 급락하는 상황에서도 테슬라는 3·4분기 강한 실적 흐름을 보여주고 있다며 위험은 남아 있으나 악재는 주가에 상당 부분 반영됐다고 판단. [출연자 전망] 테슬라 매수 유지 입장이며, 장기 성장 스토리에 무게를 둠.
다듬은 글
they and great to have you with I would to be here could you have published the same notes basically prior to the tweet the infamous tweet I mean was anything different in your view Oh guys Indy risked in any way after it's gone through that process I think it has been the risk in terms of when you looked at what potentially could happen especially with Musk potentially not as CEO I think define you know that was sort of ultimately lower than expected I think now it's really about them turn the corner and profitability I mean that's been the game changer you look what happened 3q look based on our analysis and when we mild us out 2030 we believe this is the comments gonna transform autos very similar as Apple has transformed smartphones and I just view this as a pivotal inflection point in the Tesla story what if the company has to raise money do you think that's out of the picture we know is that part of your 440 thesis yeah so we have about a 30 percent chance that they'll have to raise call it about two billion in our opinion ultimately based on our model right here and the profitability is they turn the corner we do not think that a capital raise on the horizon and that's something that's been a dark cloud over the stock and you're just you're starting to see investors now you look out the next 5-10 years where can this stock go and in our opinion you know 448 things for starters because you you get these bottlenecks cleared you look at China you could start looking at a stock with a five in front well I was looking for the earnings piece of this to get to the 440 dollar price target so you think 22 dollars of earnings power by 2025 that's looking a long ways out you look from a disruptive technology perspective very similar how we viewed Apple many years ago if you look at Tesla in 2019 2020 earnings you don't buy the stock here no you have to have a much more normalized earnings where this goes with model 3 production especially with Europe and China is starting to hit the ground running and everything we're seeing out of Fremont Giga and China in our opinion it's all the talons right now as investors see the forest for the trees in the stock do you believe that they're producing a thousand model 3 is a day yeah so right that's sort of key right to believing that the free cash flow is there to believing that there won't be a raise necessary etc yeah I mean all of our checks you know from Giga as well as free men we continue to think based on normalized production right here it's it's right now about 6500 7000 per week ultimately the question is can they get to 10k we think they can get there especially as you start to see Giga 3 in Shanghai but right now is about as comfortable that we fell in the Tesla store and I think I look out you look at sort of why the stocks reacting the way it is in a tough tack tape it's because you look at the model 3 production where this thing could go in our opinions the stock that rear eights higher with risk still there meaning the fact that it's having a great third quarter fourth quarter even as everybody else in tech has been slamming it and what is your perspective on this stock mo talking this is a moment ago but there's a split between whether it's viewed as an auto company or a technology company you have to view it as the ladder to justify these kinds of price tories yeah as an auto you who view is over valid and you think that there's no way you own it I view it as a disruptive technology and in our opinion as disruptive a technology company as we've seen since Apple go back 2007 and in the next decade this is going to be a game changer stock and that's why it's all about that free cash from profitability we look out five six seven years by the way you mentioned Apple you're buying it here but we continue to believe it's all about it's all about the serve but all about the install base 350 million we believe ultimately 10 million units came out of China that didn't come in ultimate I think that star and B fact on the street numbers we be buying that continued here and I think the bad news is baked in as as we've seen with the street numbers you
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