A 10% rally by year-end is still on the table, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

요약 보기

한 줄 결론: 2018년 말 단기적으로는 S&P500 약 10% 반등 가능성을 보지만, 2019년 전망은 신중하며 연말 변동성 자체를 경계. 단기 시장 전망: 2018년 남은 10거래일 동안 S&P500이 10% 반등할 수 있다고 주장. 5일간 200포인트 하락 등 급변동 속에서 매도 심리(AAII 강세-약세 지수 2016년 2월 이후 최악)가 바닥 신호일 수 있다고 봄. 수급 근거: 고객 다수가 중립 또는 현금 보유로 전환했으며, 이는 사이클 후반 인식 때문. 시장 참여자들이 과도하게 숏 포지션에 몰려 있어 긍정적 뉴스가 나오면 큰 반전이 가능하다고 설명. 섹터 전망: 반등은 품질주 중심으로 나타날 것. 넷플릭스보다 월트디즈니, FANG보다 가치·대형 우량주 선호. 2019년 전망: 주식에 특별히 좋은 해로 보지는 않으나, 침체를 논할 시점은 아니라고 봄. 비트코인: 2018년 시장 하락 속에서도 가치가 과소평가됐다고 주장. 지갑 사용자 증가와 활성 주소 수를 기준으로 한 공정가치 모델을 근거로 제시하며, 2018년 들어 이 모델과 가격이 괴리됐다고 설명. GE(제너럴일렉트릭): 120년 주가 이력과 배당 대비 밸류에이션을 근거로 역발상 매수 관점. 주가가 S&P500 대비 약 70% 할인된 수준이고 기관 보유 비중이 낮다고 언급. 차트는 추하지만 악재가 상당 부분 반영됐다고 주장. 신용default스프레드가 과거 대비 축소된 점, 주요 사업부(터빈) 가치 약 900억 달러 추정도 긍정 요인으로 제시. 리스크: 연말 단기 반등 이후 2018년 초처럼 급락 가능성을 경계하며 '엘리베이터 상승, 에스컬레이터 하락' 패턴을 언급. 이 때문에 연말 변동성에 깊이 관여하지 않으려는 입장. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 반등 낙관, 2019년 중립적 신중론, 비트코인·GE 역발상 긍정.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. well with stock sitting in negative territory for the year and only ten trading days left in 2018 it's not looking good take a look at the market Tales from the Crypt the sp500 has only been negative three out of the past 15 years but our next guest says not all hope is lost a 10 percent rally is still on the table before year end let's bring in fun strats Tom Lee Tom you're really bullish but now sitting next to Carter it's so in what form will this 10% rally look like of what sectors will take us there well it's a you know obviously we're working with a really short timeframe yes but we know that markets have been moving very quickly in the last couple of months right when five days we've lost 200 points I think to me anything that happens between now and your end is a lot more about positioning than macro developments you know like a AII sentiment Bulls - bears it's the worst since February 12 2016 like days before the market bottoms and from all of our conversations with clients our clients aren't worried about a bull rally and missing out a bull rally they're worried about how much of a drawdown they're facing so we we think most of our clients have gone neutral or even into cash I think that they've made a determination this is late cycle so I think that there's a bullish scenario hutches everyone's offsides and if there's any positive ailments Dan you mentioned a couple I think these are catalysts and ten days could you know see a significant reversal so is it going to be the tech sector is there gonna be financials I mean what sorts of what what's the quality of that 10% rally this is going to be tougher but I think the markets is graph change towards quality so it's more like Walt Disney over Netflix you know some more resis go over Fang and I think maybe that's how people want to be positioned anyways but I think that's a stuff they're willing to sort of buy up I'm curious how all your life have you been called an optimist by nature because you're sounding I mean with given this short time frame for that for your SP 500 call and you're also standing pat in terms of bitcoin saying the markets got it wrong on Bitcoin Bitcoin should actually be valued higher in the markets there's a disconnect there I mean you're you're really sticking by your guns here well you know work we're contrarian at the extremes it actually as markets make more extreme moves we tend to look more contrary I don't necessarily think 2019 is a great year for equities but do I think people should be bearish and we should be talking about you know a recession I think it's too early to make that judgment and I see positioning so that makes us bullish on on crypto again I think the story there is just about adoption in wallets and that's grown this year and to us that's determined fair value for last eight years you know ninety-three percent of the move bitcoins just been explained by active addresses and activity per user this is the only year where they've really diverged so I'm not saying the markets wrong I'm just saying the thing that has driven explained crypto for the last eight years hasn't explained the market this year okay here's another contrarian call General Electric yes so bad it's good III yes we actually just punished to be so we looked at 120 years of price history for GE it's back its ratio to the dad's back to 1920 and a lot of bad news has been priced in and I think one of the most significant develops this week is actually Steve to says upgrade not because he's moved the market but it's it's just evidence that a lot of bad news is priced in and it's like the least institutionally owned it's price to sales is now setting so 70% discount to the SP it's the least like among the industrial so to us the risk reward is there but it's an ugly chart our RTI Rob Slimer who says he doesn't see any evidence is it on the chart but hold that's all data sight at the lows you know 9 there was a large contingent of players who believed that gene was a zero right that it was upside down in terms of its leverage and that if not for the bailout it would have been a zero is it any better now I am asking cuz I don't know I don't yeah yes what is the situation so there's a lot written in fact Journal had an article today about GE you know number one the CD s is like 240 wide now when the GE was last $7 it was a thousand wide so credit saying hey I'm a little more comfortable there's a lot of estimates that some of their flagship businesses like their turbines are worth ninety billion the stocks at fifty six billions right away else and they had change that's right a new management so maybe little things have to go right and then good things happen with you I hope you're right Tom in terms of the markets I'm Happy Holidays to you tom has been really enjoying the holiday he's been in full holiday spirits of lates holiday tree yes see they're using Photoshop no that's real right Tom come on real that's real you've got some really good points it I mean excellent that's one word a fun strat I think it's excellent oh you don't Mel I see the I think the most important thing is it's not what happens between now on the end of the year it really is this set up like last year we were ripping after those tax cuts in the end of December into the new year and it kept on going and what did it do it's set up for a 12% straight line down so we escalator it up elevator down that's what makes me nervous about any shenanigans late year and it's not something that I want to kind of get really involved in one way or another you