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hello oracles well today wasn't the most pleasant of days we were read across all of the indices with the nasdaq down just over two percent and tesla was down almost five percent so what caused the sell-off today well part of the sell-off was due to the fed coming out and stating that they are you know a little sounding a little more hawkish and i think that is what caused the whole market to sell off entirely so you know them talking about you know perhaps going with a 50 basis point hike in the future or them running off their balance sheet a little bit sooner is news that we had heard before and then it kind of sounded like they were going a little more dovish the last time and so they're kind of swaying both ways and and i got to be honest you know they're in a very difficult position and so they're trying to just see how things are flowing and then making decisions accordingly so whereas before we thought we were going to get a 50 basis point hike potentially in may that kind of got pushed to the wayside so then the market rallied now those thoughts are coming back and that is what caused the market to sell off a little bit more today so we will know for sure on the may 4th and 5th as to what they are going to do whether it's going to be a 25 point or a 50 basis point rate hike at that time and and again going by the timing but what we've been talking about is that could potentially be the second bottom of the market and whether we hit the the lows that we hit before or just coming down close to it and then coming back up we'll obviously have time to tell on that one but i think what's going to happen is between the cpi data in april and may we might actually get a downtrend started so we might see about a month or two to three weeks of a downtrend that starts and i don't think today is the start of it you never know i mean last time i thought it was going to start in mid-february and it ended up starting in mid-january so you know sometimes big money is ahead of the game you know they're the ones who kind of lead the way and then they wait to see where the retailers are going to follow because retail always lags behind big money big money makes the moves the algorithms make the moves and then all of a sudden retail follows afterwards like we're time to sell off and so everybody sells off on top of what big money is selling and again this goes in the opposite direction as well whereas we've been on an uptrend and you know we've been going up and up and up and you know discussions can be had as to whether we've pushed beyond where we need to be just looking at the charts alone rsi you know especially for tesla was over 70 yesterday so that would be an indicator that we are overbought and should sell off and with the sell-off today of almost five percent that brought the rsi down to 64.
so tomorrow now that you know the fed discussion has been had we heard what they had to say about the rates perhaps going up faster or perhaps about the balance sheet getting run off sooner that there has now been baked in and priced into the market and so tomorrow might be a flat day uh we'll kind of see how that plays off we did have to have a sell-off into close so that usually is an indicator that tomorrow could start off ugly but you know we've had so many turnarounds we were up two percent yesterday down two percent today we're still in a situation where it's wild swings both directions there's still not a lot of volume that is coming through in the market right now so that just means that when the market does move it usually moves more because there's lower volume and so for tesla in particular we saw even more of a sell-off today tesla usually moves more than the broader market does anyway but we did have a nice little run yesterday so a little profit taking today is totally normal and natural this is not anything that concerns me as far as the five percent drop today not a big deal a bigger concern for me is the shanghai reopening it could potentially open up on august 11th with the latest date opening on august 18th that is significant because that is more than half of the month of april being shut down so that is a significant chunk somewhere around 40 000 vehicles of production not happening and berlin and austin are not at the point right now where they can make up for that and fremont can't either so i look at it in two different ways when it comes to that it could be you know a godsend because hey you know what supply chain issues are already holding them back so they were going to be held back anyway now they can kind of let supplies build up all those supplies and some of the stuff that they're getting are coming from those areas that are affected as well so could potentially spiral and make it even worse either way that to me is a major concern so we'll have to monitor that and see how that goes but that could have been also another reason why we sold off a little bit more today i think tomorrow because we sold off so much today might actually be flat might be a little buying at the end of the day knowing that we have the cyber rodeo going on thursday so i would look for you know maybe an ugly start to the day perhaps a little bit of a run up into close with the anticipation of the cyber rodeo on thursday the cyber rodeo thursday i have a feeling we're going to have a green day we're probably going to get a cyber truck unveiling of some sort maybe the latest prototype maybe the pre-production prototype we shall see what happens and then we'll probably get other inside information as to what is going on for the future of uh giggle austin which is similar to what we got out of giga berlin so that could cause a nice green day on thursday for tesla and then on friday a little uncertain you know depending on how much we run if we run on thursday might get a little bit of a sell-off might get continued running on friday based on the news that we get on thursday and then going into the weekend you never know maybe we sell off so friday's kind of uh an up you know a coin toss for me i'm really not sure yet which way we're going to go on friday looking at next week i think next week is where we could start to see things get ugly uh just because we have cpi coming out we know that it's going to be high inflation we have now gotten a little indicator from the fed that they could potentially be raising rates 50 basis points again so with that being said if inflation is coming in higher and we know it's going to come in high that could be a little signal for the market to sell off some more and that might be the turning point where we start to sell down now for tesla we do have the q1 earnings call coming up on 420 so that's not short afterwards i mean that's only a week after the cpi data comes out so i'm really not sure how much tesla's going to sell off because if their numbers come in really well they might kind of ignore some of the macro environment that's going on and continue breaking through this because we might get on that earnings call more information about the split because then we'll get the proxy afterwards which is going to be the uh official announcement and news about what's going on with the split when the annual meeting is going to be because we have an assumption that once we get the annual meeting it'll be shortly thereafter that we are going to get the split so a lot of that information should be coming out in the next couple of weeks and so the way i'm looking at it is with conflicting sentiment going both directions with the macro sentiment being a lot more negative but tesla sentiment being positive if tesla does sell down due to the macro environment pullback i am going to be buying heavy heavy heavy uh because i've been saving up cash i've been selling off a few of the unwanted stocks that i have waiting for this moment to be able to dump more in and again i don't know if we're going to pull back to 700 where we were previously on that dip but we might pull back down into the 900s under a thousand again and at that point i'm in because i think once we get past the may 4th and 5th fomc meeting that is when we are going to start going back up again very similar to what we saw in mid-march where it was a sell the rumor by the news we may end up getting the same exact play out going this time around as well where you know we're thinking about their fed raising rates 50 basis points and and what's going to happen i think if we get to that meeting and they only raise at 25 basis points we can really take off because uh seems like the market is anticipating right now a 50 basis point hike so if we get 50 basis point hike in may we might actually rally a little bit out of it because that's what we expected or we might be flat but if we get a 25 point basis hike we could really take off and i think from that meeting going through the majority of the summer we are going to get a massive rally going on and now that's not to say that we're out of the woods because we do still have very high inflation we have the fed who's going to be raising rates most likely for like the next year and a half or so to get us back into line to where we need to be then we also have potential recession fears which kathy wood had spoken about you know with you know a lot of times the recession happens after the fed stops raising rates so that could come sometime in late 2023 so we've got a lot of different things that are going on but if we can get a nice two to three month rally over the summer that could be a great opportunity to again sell off some of your unwanted stocks and then consolidate that money into your high conviction plays awaiting to see what's next in line because then we do have the midterm elections coming and usually starting about mid-september through the end of october we get a lot of selling off with the uncertainty as to what is going on so that can be another buying opportunity and volatility going on at that point but for the majority of the summer probably won't be much impeding us so we could have a great opportunity to run and tesla could take it to all-time highs at that point especially with a split coming and so again today did not worry me one bit our five percent sell-off not a big deal i did not buy today other than my normal daily allotment i am still waiting to see what's going to go on uh i am still um not trying to time the market but making a a an educated guess that we are going to get a second dip coming coming towards the end of april so i'm going to be saving money until then but this is also why i still dollar cost average every day because if we don't end up getting that dip i'm still buying in and now i'll just have some more cash on the sidelines to be able to toss a little bit more in here and there so just my strategy to keep myself agile and play it on both sides let me know your thoughts in the comments how do you feel about today i know we've been rallying quite a bit over the last couple of weeks so it's kind of disappointing to see a big sell-off like this today but again we're still just under eleven hundred dollars and this is kind of where we were consolidating last week so for me if we're going to consolidate around this place still not a bad thing you know we're under 70 rsi if we consolidate that keeps us down at that point so let me know your thoughts in the comments let me know how you're feeling about this thank you all so much for watching i appreciate all of your support and feedback if you have not subscribed please do so down below sign yourself up for notifications i am over on twitter at oracle101 i share all the latest tesla news pertinent stock market information and all of my daily trades thank you so much have a great one
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