저자: OracleTim · 외국인
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테슬라 주가 급락 원인 분석. 중국 모델 가격 5~9% 인하가 핵심 이슈로, 가격 인하 후 초기엔 수요 지연 후 반등 가능성 주장. 일론 머스크의 주식 매도 여부는 Form 4로 확인 필요하다고 봄. 트위터 인수 자금 마련 우려와 $200 지지선을 주시. 장기적으로 2025년 $1000 도달을 전망하며 하락 시 추가 매수 의향 표명.
다듬은 글
hello oracles Tesla stock is plummeting early is Elon selling his shares today judging by where we are at at the time of this recording we are already at 25 million shares trading hands and we are down seven percent so we also have news coming out of China that they have cut prices so we'll discuss some of that right now sorry for the delay in the video this morning I got it at three o'clock in the morning after watching the Yankees game with my son last night they lost it was a great time totally worth it but I'm now recovering here and then I wake up to a lot of nut drama and news all about the prices being cut over in China the 10q is out so I wanted to make sure I went through that before I got into the video today so lots of information and a lot of drama that is going on so we're going to decipher a lot of this and what it means for the stock going forward so looking at what we have for the prices right now so Troy test like broke this all down looks like Tesla has dropped the prices uh about five percent for both the performance model 3 and the standard Range model 3 and 5 for the model y performance it dropped nine point four percent for the model y long range and 8.8 percent for the model y standard range so these prices are all coming down they have a few vehicles that we're not qualifying for what they have for their basically their EV tax credits over in China so they dropped those accordingly so of course with all of this you know this explains why there was a lot of demand being delayed over in China because the fact that you know they saw potentially this coming sure enough here it is a lot of speculation as to why Tesla had waited to do it now could be because of the earnings call that's what Troy test like thinks so either way this is now where we're at the prices are coming down so of course the market is selling up because the market wants to see prices going up probably the market wants to see that going up because usually price is going up means more profits to the bottom line when you bring your prices down to there's less money to the bottom line but as Gary blackhead mentioned back in 2020 Tesla had dropped the prices of the model 3.
so when they dropped the prices of the model 3 orders actually went up and their stock price went up 699 since then and Gary also sees that the increase in demand from this price drop will actually increase EPS by five cents so when it comes to this price drop here we're going to see something similar now you have to remember that Elon had mentioned that he thinks the prices of their vehicles are embarrassingly high their whole entire goal has been to lower the cost of their vehicles so they could lower the price of their vehicles and Tesla even mentioned the cost reduction efforts over in China in part of their 10q discussing how this is what they want to do they're looking to reduce the cost and this has allowed them to bring down the prices over in China now they also did mention that over in China they are doing other things to incentivize people to be able to get them uh bring sales back up and brand awareness over there so this is something that they're not doing anywhere else in the world but we do know that there's a lot more EV competition over in China than we do see in the US and other parts of the world so this is something that they're doing over there we know that they do advertise a little bit over in China and so this is something that they're looking to push over there but I think this is going to be a market that is going to teach Tesla how to be able to handle the rest of the world as well as we move forward in the aea Revolution and he did say that when you lower the price of your vehicles it's not a direct correlation not like if you drop your price ten percent the volume of your sales are going to go up by 10 no when you drop your price of vehicles by 10 the volume of sales is going to go up exponentially the initial reaction is going to be a lowering of sales so that's because when you see the price is going to be potentially coming down people will wait until that price actually comes down this is something we've talked about on this channel all year long about price drops coming where you will initially see that drop where it's counterintuitive because you would think price coming down demand would go up and it will but the initial reaction is going to be the opposite but with news that we had gotten over there because of the fact that they dropped the prices on this the sales ordering page over at Tesla in China crashed because there were so many people who are trying to place their orders for fear that they might actually go back up on the prices at some point so we are going to see this demand picking up significantly this is exactly what Tesla had wanted and they just had to do it carefully along the way because they have to make sure that they can handle all of the different reactions and I wonder if personally now again this is just my opinion wondering if maybe they initially dropped that rumor intentionally just so they could get some of the reactions so they can understand what the reaction of the true price drop was going to be when it comes to the actual drop which they just did so I wonder if they did that just to get a feel for how the reaction was going to be you know sometimes human emotion and human reaction is a bottleneck that you just cannot predict so Elon can predict bottlenecks when it comes to lithium and other different supply chain issues that are going on but when it comes to human emotion and human reaction that could be unpredictable so perhaps they dropped that little bit of information just so you can get an inkling information on how that was going to be as a reaction and now we have seen it so we have seen that reaction happening I have no doubt we're going to see this globally around the world prices of all the vehicles over in China are significantly lower than the prices of their vehicles all around the world so I have no doubt we will end up seeing the prices of the vehicles around the world coming down again this is what Elon has wanted this is exactly what their goal is they are lowering the costs of their vehicles they're lowering the costs of production and as they do so they can lower the price of the vehicles so now when it comes to this again as far as competition goes don't forget Tesla is making 30 margins on its Vehicles when it comes to Shanghai and Fremont alone Austin and Berlin will end up getting there within the next year most likely so 30 percent margin cushion with the EV tax credit coming in the U.S next year gives such a massive advantage to Tesla whereas competition basically their EV margin is going to be based upon the EB tax credit in the US next year and that's it they are not making any money on their vehicles outside of that so Tesla has the ability to come down on the prices and make them at a range where you know they're going to be more more affordable for people people are going to choose Tesla over all their competition and then competition is going to have to in turn lower their prices to try and entice more people to come in and take a bigger hit on their vehicles and lose even more money so this is where we are looking right now when it comes to lowering of the prices I personally think this is a good thing this is the place where Tesla has been trying to go anyway so this is not bad but there's been a lot of drama going on around this in the Twitter sphere mainstream media is pushing it out there so other reasons why Tesla stock could be dropping today is the fact that over in China they have just elected uh president XI for the third term and the market does not like this the market does not want to see him over there they would prefer that he not be over there it's detrimental to tech stocks Neo down about 10 percent at the time of this recording as well that is the only Chinese stock that I have but just seeing all of this pulling down there's two things that are in relation you know both between the the situation that's going on over in China they also came out with their GDP numbers and their GDP growth was up 3.9 percent over last year but at this point in the year they were looking to be at 5.5 and year to date there at three percent so they are not in the place that they wanted to be as far as growing their economy but it is still growing just not as fast as they had wanted it to but of course the covid lockdowns definitely put a lot on that and I think the market is frowning upon that because of the fact that President XI is the one who has been very restrictive over there and so we don't want to see that so that could affect a lot of the Tesla stock as well so we're continuing to drop now at down five percent so I will be getting off of this video shortly and adding more to my position and of course the biggest seller we could potentially have this week is Elon judging by the charts this morning I know Mike shorts over on Twitter and I were discussing I personally didn't know because of pre-market movements whether this was going to be Elon selling but it definitely seems based how much volume is already coming in Elon is most likely selling shares right now so as Gary black had mentioned that we have seen prices get cut over in China and the market did not react like this to it so this has got to be something on top of the China prices being dropped so most likely it is Elon selling we will find out later with the form 4 filings Elon has 48 hours to file those form fours and judging by what Farzad had mentioned last week when he was working over at Tesla seems like it was the Monday after the earnings calls when that window opened up again for them to be able to sell and trade shares and so with Elon most likely selling shares today that would mean that this Twitter overhang has been lifted if this is indeed what is happening right now so this could also guarantee that Elon is buying Twitter so this would answer that question so whether they're actually going to get to the court date this Friday or not or if they've come up with a deal before then we will find out hopefully this week as well but if Elon has sold all the shares he needs to today maybe between today and tomorrow I don't know if he's going to do it in a one day stint but we will see what's going happen as Gary black had mentioned before this is just a one percent float that is going on so he thought we would only see a two percent movement in the stock clearly that is a lot more than that if this is indeed the case of Elon selling and so if Gary Black's figures are correct and Elon has five billion dollars left that he needs to raise for the Twitter deal that would mean 25 million shares need to be sold by Elon to come up with that money based upon a 200 stock price and now we just continue to bounce around that 200 level so we're finding a very strong support there so we're balancing there so again if Elon is selling we will find out for sure in those form four filings and for me I love buying Elon shares if indeed he is selling you guys can let me know in the comments below if you think he is selling shares today but either way once we get the answers to that we will end up having buyers coming back in and then I think timing wise at that point we're going to have the next interest rates going up looks like the fomc looks like the fed's going to be raising those rates by 75 basis points that's pretty much guaranteed and then a week after that we're going to have them midterm elections so once those two things are completed we will be past the Twitter overhang will be past some of the big macro questions that we have going on at the moment and then Tesla can come out and the second half of November with positive news new gigafactory openings hey here's the order page for the Cyber truck you know a lot of good stuff I think we're going to have going through the rest of Q4 but in the meantime at least for the next week and a half it could be a very rocky road and very ugly and one of the things I recognized from the game last night was hecklers lots of hecklers my son and I were in the bleachers for the first time and if anybody has been to a Yankees game where you're in the bleachers it's a totally different world than being anywhere else in that Stadium it's just like the whole bleacher area is just full of hecklers but as we were watching the game the more the Yankees were doing well the stronger the hecklers were as soon as the Astros came back and tied the game up they shut up this is what Tesla Q was doing and what they're all about I have seen some Tesla balls doing the same thing so it's you know we're guilty on both sides but teslaq right now is at a point where their team is winning and they are being extremely loud about it we have recognized this all over the place and all they need to do is continue to do this we have even gotten to the point where we saw some dissension in the ranks Troy teslick and Rob Maurer two of my favorite people to follow when it comes to Tesla you know Troy had blocked to Rob he unblocked him you know that drama is hopefully clearing itself up but you know this is where we're at right now there's a lot of high tensions going on in the Tesla Community we just need to keep it together folks right now we are all in this together we are on the same path on the same team fighting for the same mission that everybody else is so do not let Tesla Q Heckle your way into being upset and really just getting to your emotions that is exactly what their goal is to is to get to your emotions and get that emotional reaction from you so keep yourself out of this focus on the mission all of this stuff right now near-term drama it's all this tiny minutia that really does not mean anything in the long term Focus long term as Tesla economists had mentioned look at what we're looking at long term we're looking at a thousand kilowatt hours of battery production for the future we are heading towards a much larger place than we are at right now so any of the little stuff that is going on are blips on the radar Troy test like saying that we may have lost 10 000 sales over in China 10 000 deliveries is going to be a small drop in the bucket compared to the larger picture down the road so yes maybe it's going to affect Q4 numbers we won't know that until we get to the end of Q4 but either way it is only Q4 numbers that number is going to be such a small amount in the future that is just going to be a fraction of a daily delivery number that we are getting out of Tesla so small small numbers to pay attention to right now that are going on so let's not focus on that let's focus on the long-term Mission and not just be arguing with each other because of this tensions are high again Focus long term and now with that said I will be having Farzad on the channel Channel tomorrow evening at 6 PM eastern time we are going to be discussing a lot of that we're going to be discussing a lot of the demand over in China we're going to be discussing the price drops Logistics in China cost cutting a lot of the different things that Farzad saw when he was working over at Tesla so we'll get to discuss a lot of that and his feelings on this going forward and lots of other things as well so you guys can let me know in the comments below anything you guys want to ask him so we'll be on for probably about an hour and just as usual I'll be going through all the comments with you guys to have our discussions you guys can ask on the fly so what I'm going to be paying attention to in the charts today is that 200 level again we had mentioned it last week where we have bounced off of it two maybe three times right now depending on how you're looking at the charts and how you want to judge it and how close we were but that third bounce is going to determine whether we bounce off and come back up or if we're going to break through and fall lower so again nobody knows what's going to happen with all the drama we have going on this week especially now with the prices getting cut over in China and the drama coming out of that we might see us breaking that 200 level again and we're bouncing down just I've been watching this as we're recording this and we keep on pulling down the 202 level and coming back up so we keep on bouncing we will pay attention to this closely as the week goes on personally in my opinion if we drop below it I am going to be adding heavier remember look long term look at least 20 25.
when we get to that point in 2025 I think we are going to be at a point where we're hitting over a thousand dollars in the stock price so regardless of whether we go up from here or whether we pull down even further I still think we are going to be hitting that thousand dollar stock price if we get to that point at a thousand dollars the return on your investment will just be larger the more we pull back I know not everyone has dry powder left to add to their stock portfolio I do some of you do if you don't you just write it through if you can sell something in your house and buy more Tesla stock and you want to not Financial advice but go ahead and do it you know I think these are going to be the times we look back at and and say I wish we had bought more during that Peak fud and Peak drama that was going on and so I had mentioned before that the Catalyst that could drive us below that 200 level would be Elon selling so if he is indeed selling today and we keep holding up strong at that 200 level that could bode well for the future and we may not fall below that still have the rest of the day to go so we will monitor this we'll see if he did indeed sell today so we're going to follow this pay attention to it again the Gap below here is 187 and if we do break below 200 we have a strong support at 191 so we may hit 191 fill that Gap and balance there just things to pay attention to and we will discuss that later tonight let me know in the comments below how do you guys feel about the price drops coming in China do you think we are going to see them globally as well and how do you think this is going to affect demand going forward do you think this is going to affect a man in a massive way and we're going to get even more demand coming out of China both
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