TSLA OUTPERFORMS the market on a flat day as investors await answers to questions! #TSLA

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테슬라 주가가 223달러 지지선에서 횡보 중이며, 최근 급락 후 대형 자금이 채권으로 이동하고 포트폴리오 매니저들이 관망 중이라고 진단. 10월 CPI(예상 8.1%)·PPI 발표와 11월 FOMC 금리인상 가능성, 중간선거 등 거시 불확실성을 강조. 유럽 모델Y 판매 1위 등 수요는 견조하다고 보나 중국 수요는 확인 필요. 기존 자동차 업체 마진 악화 대비 테슬라 우위를 주장하고, 2023년 말까지 불확실성 지속 후 금리 인하 시 강세 전환 가능성을 제시. 개인적으로 수요 절벽은 아니라고 판단.

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01. oracles will test the stock outperforms the market on a flat day with a lot of questions that still need to be answered that are out there so Gary black over on Twitter was discussing how there's a lot of portfolio managers right now just waiting for some answers to go on with Tesla Elon Twitter a whole lot of different things that are sitting out there so there's a lot of waiting going on before anybody makes a lot of Buys so we have seen over the last week the stock has plummeted quite a bit and it's been a lot of higher volume coming in there's been a lot of big money that's been moving over to bonds there's a lot of people who are uncertain thinking that hey if Elon does end up having to sell more shares the stock price could end up pulling down further so they were selling last week and just waiting for this stock to finally hit a bottom and settle today we didn't move at all today we were at 223 dollars for pretty much the majority of the day we fluctuated up and down a little bit off of that number but as we had discussed before 223 dollars was this level of support that we were discussing so now we're sitting at this and we're kind of just a waiting to see what goes on so in the macro environment right now we do have the PPI data coming out on Wednesday CPI data coming out on Thursday this in turn could affect the way the FED handles the situation with inflation maybe they end up going more hawkish maybe the market reacts to this I don't know how much more the market is going to price in rate hikes or a more hawkish fed we've seen quite a bit of a sell-off market wide all across the board so if we end up coming in with a higher than expected number for inflation because right now expectations are 8.1 percent if we come in higher than that maybe the fed's going to say hey we're going to go with a one percent rate hike in November and then people are going to lose their minds now don't forget the next rate hike is coming at the end of this month November 1st and 2nd are going to be the next fomc meeting so we are going to be getting a rate hike in the next few weeks as well and before we get into things I want to wish all of my Canadian subscribers a Happy Thanksgiving they are all celebrating that up there so I hope you guys are enjoying yourselves with that I also got some news on my model y today the delivery date was November 3rd to December 8th that has been pushed up to October 28th to November 11th I am still going to be finding out if I can push this off until next year and if I would still qualify for the EV tax credit over on Twitter someone had mentioned to me that if you had made your order prior to August 16th you would then be qualified for whatever EV tax credits were available prior to that date and that's if you had a binding contract so I need to find out what is going on I've got a lot of questions I need to ask Tesla themselves because I mean I just have the 250 put down it's not really a binding contract for that so I will get some details so if any of you guys have that question I will get this answer out to you now sometime this week either tomorrow or Wednesday depending on which day I get my son I will be doing a live stream on here doing another chart chat we are going to be going through all of the different charts that we see I'll show you guys what I'm looking at in the charts as well you know all the levels that we've got and anyone who is a member or Patron this weekend I will be doing a live stream with all of you guys to show you how I come up with all the levels that I see so if you guys were like to become a member or a patron you can check that out in the pinned comment down below and if you guys appreciate content like this please hit the like button and share with others as it helps the algorithms to get this out there to more people so the next few weeks are going to be kind of turbulent maybe really for the next month so laying out the next month that we have going on for Tesla and the macro environment we've got CPI and PPI coming out this week next week we're going to be having earnings we are going to have the Twitter deal going on on October 28th to finalize things there if it's not finalized before then we are going to have the fomc meeting at the end of the month we have the midterm elections coming on November 8th there's a lot of uncertainty and turbulence going on not to mention Russia and Ukraine is still going on over there talks about the nuclear war all sorts of crazy things that are going on right now that are just really causing quite a pensive Market at the moment we also have questions coming out for Tesla when it comes to demand is there a demand issue going on with Tesla well today we had gotten news out of Germany saying that the model Y is the best selling vehicle over their B out the VW Golf Now a lot of conversations I have with you guys on here and I still hope that they are true that the golf type of vehicle and that size is the ideal size vehicle to have over in Europe and now seeing the model y outperforming that size vehicle in Germany alone leads me to believe that we are going to see more of this happening all over Europe and then just wait till we get a Tesla version of the golf coming out over there we're going to have a compact car wait till you see those sales going on if the model Y is already beating that when we get that compact car coming out watch out demand will be going through the roof at that point now we are also seeing that demand across the board and other countries around the world is going up as well you know there's a lot of countries where it is new so you know demand is going up over there we see Australia and New Zealand looking at you know a 26 to 34 week lead time in those two countries so that to me tells me that there is a lot of demand it may just not be in the same areas that we had seen it before so does this mean that we should be having some questions about like China is there a demand in China well we shall see what goes on the Q3 earnings perhaps they're going to discuss some of that I have no doubt somebody is going to be asking that question over there and that is one of the reasons why a lot of portfolio managers right now are just waiting to see what's going on they're waiting for Elon to sell some Twitter shares they're waiting to see some answers about what is going on with demand have we hit a demand Cliff that a lot of people are talking about personally I do not think so I think we are also looking forward the market looks forward six months so if the market is looking to perhaps an earnings recession going on maybe demand coming down if we get into a deeper recession overall as well maybe they see that sales are going to be lower for Tesla and everyone in general you know when we're looking at the Legacy Automotive makers and we're looking at the overall Automotive Market maybe sales do end up coming down so this is going to lead us to a point where maybe we have too much inventory coming in for Legacy auto now don't forget we are making this transition over to EVS this EV transition is happening faster than many people had anticipated so as we're moving into this Legacy auto is going to run into the problem where they may be producing too many ice vehicles that may not sell at all they may have to sell those below cost just to move their inventory out this could be a potential problem that goes on for them meanwhile Tesla's not going to have that problem and if Tesla does happen to come into the situation where demand is coming down due to a recession they can bring prices down on their vehicles now when it comes down to it in a situation like that when it's a recession and we've had many conversations about this about how is Tesla going to handle a recession coming up well two things one the majority of the buyers that are purchasing Teslas are on the higher end of income makers so when we have higher income earners they usually don't get affected by a recession as much or it takes a long recession before them to actually get affected by it so they have their customer base is more solid than some of the Legacy Automotive makers as well now if we do get deeper into it and Tesla needs to come down on prices don't forget the Tesla is the one who has the biggest margins so when you're looking at who is going to survive a recession better than anyone else take a look at the costs of vehicle to produce so when you're looking at the cost of the vehicles you look at the margins what are all the people in Wall Street going to be looking at profits they don't care about how much you're selling your vehicle for if you're selling your vehicle for sixty thousand dollars but it costs you sixty thousand dollars to make you made zero dollars in profits off of this it is going to come down to EPs and profits for when it comes to next year if we do end up getting into a deeper recession which the market seems to be pricing in now and so when you're looking out six months if you're looking at a Tesla saying hey maybe margins do come down a little bit maybe the recession hits them and they have to drop pricing so maybe margins come in at 25 instead of 30 percent but you've got Legacy auto coming in at three to five percent versus coming into eight to ten percent that is going to be a massive difference coming in because just that five percent it's not like you're going to be cutting it in half that five percent is a very small margin of error that they have over at Legacy auto when it comes to their ice vehicles and their EVS aren't even profitable yet they're in even more of a difficult situation because as we transition over to eevs they may again be sitting on these ice Vehicles without being able to make profits on those either so if they can't make a lot of profits on their ice vehicles and they're not making profits on their EVS it's going to come down to a lot of service and parts that they're going to have to move out there to try and build all of this up don't forget as we go down the future in time EVS aren't going to require all of this service and parts so Legacy Automotive is going to be significantly struggling so looking at earnings that we could be seeing and the way the stock price could be moving over the next year the next six months going into what could potentially be a recession we're going to see some turbulent times this is not a question this has been out there we've been discussing it all year long that most likely till the end of 2023 we're going to see some uncertainty but as we're probably getting to the Q2 earnings of next year we're going to get a little more clarity when it comes to the macro environment what's going on with inflation whether we're actually going to be pulling out of this or not and what time we would be pulling out of this we could be getting some earnings coming in across the board that aren't you know as good as we could potentially see them but we might actually get some rallies coming out afterwards very similar to what we had seen over the last couple of years somebody comes out with bad earnings but they've got good guidance so the stock ends up going up afterwards we could potentially see that because they could be expecting earnings to be coming in low you know maybe we get to that point with Tesla again I don't know if this is going to happen but just running a scenario here maybe Tesla does come in with 25 margins in Q2 but if that had already been priced in because they were expecting this recession to get worse when we get to that point if Tesla comes out and says hey we're expecting these numbers to go up and we have the FED saying that we're probably going to be coming down on interest rates we could be seeing a quick turnaround right at that point where the stock could be jumping back up again so if they're expecting maybe 25 margins and they come up with 26 margins and a good forecast coming out and good guidance we could see a good rally in the stock after that that's just a scenario that I'm playing out in my head with a potential recession getting worse as it is but again I'm still playing this day to day who knows what's going to happen next year and so to get into some of the questions that we do need to answer in the near term one of the big questions that these portfolio managers are asking is you know is Elon going to have to sell more shares for Twitter and so today we got some confirmation from Sequoia capital and binance those were two of the original Financial backers for Tesla coming out saying that they do plan on upholding their end of the deal and they will continue to back this so that secures that funding there so again we still don't know if Elon does have to sell any more shares he did tell us back in August that he's sold some just in case he has any Financial backers that do not end up coming through so these are two more that are secured so we are now going to wait and see but again we don't know and we probably won't end up finding out about this until after Q3 earnings so again this is just a reason why people are going to wait and purchase especially when it comes to big money and portfolio managers and then on the demand end of things again we will find out more information on Q3 earnings about China but we are also seeing the model S and model X plaid possibly coming over in November to Europe we have also seen pictures of the model S plowed over in China so perhaps that's an indicator that we are going to be seeing deliveries happening over there soon as well now of course the model S and the model X are of course a lower volume vehicle for Tesla higher margins but to see them coming over to these areas is really nice and now one thing to look forward to as well especially when we're looking six months down the road at what could potentially happen in the market is when the FED does end up deciding that they are going to lower interest rates that is usually historically the signal that the market is going to enter a bull market again now things that we can see going into a bull market versus what we see now we are in a bear Market a lot of big money is putting their money into bonds versus into equities we also have a lot less margin that is out there right now because nobody really wants to be in margin during these times because a margin is expensive and with the volatility that is out there you can lose everything really fast so not Financial advice but I do not recommend margin at all during these times margin is always highly risky no matter what Market we are in but especially during this Market it's even more risky so as we come out of this not only will we see a lot more big money coming into equities alone but we will also see a lot more margin coming in driving the stocks higher than they really should be now margin could end up putting some padding on top that maybe shouldn't be there but when you're in a bull market it's a little bit safer to do that because you have a little more room to grow and a lot less chance that you know things are just going to have the bottom drop out of them so overall with the stock the RSI is still around that 27 level because we held flat today we will still monitor this the volume was a little bit lower today at 67 million shares trading hands so again going into the CPI and PPI this week I think we're going to have just a little bit of uncertainty who knows where we're going to move at this point but with the RSI being so low we might kind of either sit flat maybe have a little bit green you know we could still come down a little bit again I don't know for sure but we are definitely very oversold at the moment so I am anticipating some buying pressure to come in at some point soon let me know your thoughts in the comments below do you think Tesla is having a demand issue where do you think that they are going to be resolving this do you think we are going to get those answers on the Q3 earnings call and where do you think we are going to see the stock moving in the next couple of weeks when do you think we are going to get this buying pressure coming back in and I just noticed that I did not update my board with all of the price changes for the day so if you guys noticed that before I did congratulations thank you so much I will get that updated now 101 again