저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 투자는 어렵고, 좋은 투자자는 위험 통제와 사이클 위치 판단을 동시에 잘해야 한다. 투자는 쉽다고 포장하면 안 되며, 여러 요소를 동시에 저글링해야 하는 어려운 일이라는 점을 강조한다. 사람들은 치과나 자동차 수리는 전문가에게 맡기면서 투자는 누구나 할 수 있다고 생각한다. 핵심 요소 중 가장 중요한 두 가지는 위험 통제와 시장 사이클 내 현 위치 파악이다. 위험 통제가 전문성의 표지이며, 상승장에서는 누구나 돈을 벌 수 있다. 좋은 시기에 수익을 내는 것만으로는 차별점이 되지 않는다. 우수한 투자자는 좋은 시기에 위험을 통제하며 수익을 내고, 환경이 나빠질 때 손실을 감당할 준비가 되어 있어야 한다. 시장이 10% 오르고 12% 오른 것, 10% 떨어지고 12% 떨어진 것은 의미가 없다. 미래를 예측하기보다 현재의 사이클 위치를 이해하는 것이 중요하며, 이는 미래를 결정하는 확률 분포에 대한 정보를 준다. 미래를 정확히 맞출 수는 없지만, 가능한 결과들의 확률 분포를 더 잘 이해하는 것이 우수한 투자자의 조건이다. 미래 투자 성과는 복권 통이 비유처럼, 당첨 티켓 비율이 70%일 때는 공격적으로 투자하고 30%일 때는 조심해야 한다. 차이를 알 수 있다면 좋겠지만 어려운 일이다. 확률을 유리하게 만드는 것이 좋은 결과를 보장하지는 않지만, 우리가 할 수 있는 유일한 일이라고 강조한다. 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
you know i would find myself sitting in a client's office and i would say the most important thing is controlling risk and five minutes later i'd say the most important thing is buying cheap and the five minutes later i'd say that you know the most important thing is is uh knowing where we stand in the cycle or something like that so i wrote this first a memo around 023 called the most important thing and then this book and you know there are so many things that you have to juggle at the same time to be a good investor that i wanted to share that with people you know and i think i said in the introduction that i am not writing to make investing easy i would rather write to show how hard it is because there are so many things that have to be juggled simultaneously but if you take an area like investing and you try to make it seem easy you're really doing people a disservice if we if we said to people you know you if you really spent some time on it you could do your own dentistry or your own legal work or fix your own car you know we wouldn't be doing people a favor and the same is true with investing for some reason while nobody does their own dentistry or auto repairs everybody thinks they can be an investor and if they're going to try i'm at least going to give them some of the considerations so one of the things in that 21 was knowing where we stand in the cycle now i think there are two among the 21 most important things i think two are really the most important except for the others and and they are number one risk and controlling risk because i think that re controlling risk is the mark of a professional anybody can make money when the market goes up and most of the time the market goes up and anybody who in who takes above average risk can do above average when the market rises so achieving returns is not a point of distinction in good times in my opinion the distinction of a superior investor is achieving returns in good times with the risk under control because you never know when the environment is going to shift from favorable to unfavorable and the question is are you prepared you know somebody who if the market's up 10 and you're up 12 and the market's down 10 and you're down 12 you didn't accomplish anything the question is can you make more in the good times than you give back in the bad times and then i think the other thing that's most important is the cycle and where we stand in it i don't believe in predicting the future we never know where we're going we should understand the present and where we are in the present where the market is relative to its cycle tells you something about the odds that govern the future doesn't tell you what's going to happen tomorrow but i believe that we can only understand since the world is an uncertain place filled with randomness we can't know what's going to happen in the future but those of us who see the world more clearly than others can have a superior understanding for the probability distribution that governs the future which what things can happen which are most likely which are somewhat likely which are unlikely if you have that consistently you are a superior understander and you can be a superior investor so i think the question is what today is the probability distribution that governs the future and and one of the things i say in the book which i which i'm happy with is that the future investment performance in particular for me is like a bowl full of lottery tickets you never know which ticket's going to be chosen sometimes the bowl has 70 percent winning tickets and 30 losing tickets sometimes it has 70 losing tickets and 30 winning tickets wouldn't it be nice to know the difference i think it's possible but you want it when when it's 70 winners and 30 lose you want to go all in you want to invest heavily in aggressive securities and you reach into the bowl or maybe the gods of fate reach into the bowl and they pull out a ticket and it's a loser so you know as my best friend bruce newberg says out in california when we play backgammon which is a game that's dominated by dice there are probabilities and outcomes we can get the probabilities on our side that does not ensure a favorable outcome but it's it's the only thing we can try to do so and that's what the book is all about you
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