저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
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레버리지 의존 기업과 기술혁신 투자는 피하고, 소비재(소액·비내구재), 설치기반 서비스, 프랜차이즈 같은 예측 가능한 현금흐름 기업에 투자한다. 기술혁신은 가치를 창출하기보다 파괴하는 경우가 많다는 주장. 예시로 항공산업 누적 이익 0, 신문·분류광고 붕괴 등을 든다. 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 전망은 없음.
다듬은 글
what else are we looking for for good companies we won't invest in any company that requires leverage to make its returns um if a company requires leverage to make its returns there are a couple of things which are true if you can borrow money to invest in something like this building at certain points in the cycle when debts very freely available the marginal buyer for this building will be willing to pay a price that roughly equates the yield on the building to the cost of debt because their equity's portion is so small that they'll make a big return on Equity because they're mainly investing the bank's money that means that at some points the yield on on assets like this building will get down towards the yield on debt that's not good enough we don't want the return on debt we want a return on Equity the other reason why we won't invest in anything with significant leverage requirements is at some point credit is withdrawn with disastrous effects as we saw in the credit cycle if you have got to have leverage in order to be in business you can be dead at that point in the cycle so we never invest in anything that requires leverage to make a return some of the companies we invest in have leverage for sure but they don't have to have it to make a return and if they do have it it has they have to have a very high fixed charge cover they're Cash cover for the interest that they pay and any rents that they pay has to be about four or five times uh safety is the first virtue we won't invest in anything that's subject to technological innovation we don't understand it most people don't understand it actually most technological innovation doesn't create value it destroys value there's that wonderful statistic which is true that between the R Brothers doing the first controlled power flight on Kittyhawk in in 1903 and to date the airline industry's total profits are zero It's a Wonderful Innovation that's changed the way that we travel in our entire lives it's never made any money the internet has made money for a few people who've invested in the right things it's destroyed far more value in traditional media Industries go and have a look what's happened to newspaper stocks since the Advent of the internet have a look what's happened to classified advertising since the event of the internet technological innovation is something we don't understand and therefore we don't invest in what we do invest in is companies that have got certain advantages typically they have uh one of two or three things they're either in what I what you might call Consumer Staples well I prefer a different term for them small ticket consumer non- durables small ticket it's something that when you buy it you buy it like this you take out your wallet and you take out a bank note and you buy it it's not a life-changing experience it's an everyday repeat purchase and you don't need credit to do it so small ticket consumer it's sold to you and me okay we don't like companies that sell to other companies if a if a company sells components or ingredients or services to other companies companies employ full-time purchasing departments whose job is to beat them up on price beat them up on payment terms and then renag right it's very tough selling to other companies it's easy to sell to us the consumer we're typically brand loyal and we have no opportunity to negotiate on price next time you're in the supermarket and you're buying your deodorant or your cosmetics or your uh your household cleaning products or your soft drinks or your snacks try negotiating on price and see how you get on you have no opportunity negotiate on price you're a price taker so small ticket sold to Consumer and non-durable once you consumed it once you consumed your drink or your snack or your pet food or your Cosmetics you have to go buy some more we don't like durables I have a six-year-old Volvo car next year it will be a seven-year-old Volvo car frankly providing I get it service it will still be good to drive around um people if they haven't got much money or feel a bit hard up can put off replacing durable goods with things that you consume you can't put it off so we like small ticket consumer non- durables that's not the only things we like and we also like companies that have got an installed base of equipment they may manufacture things but they make all of their profits out of servicing that installed base of equipment if you have a look next time you're in an airport or a shopping mall or a an office building and have a look at who makes the elevator it will be one of three people right it'll either be Otis or it'll be con or it will be Shindler those are the big three you might find the odd te and crook B for Jitsu one but they're very rare um all of those people once they've got their lifts and their elevators and their escalators installed in buildings have service contracts when they break down which they do with monotonous regularity people come from the same company to service them they make all their money out of the service and Spares and I like companies where a small event predictable event every day creates that demand every day every three days the population of the world travels on an Otis Elevator and escalator every three days 6 and a half billion people travel on Otis elevators and escalators and every time we set foot on those we click the service clock along towards needing that service that they pay for that's why they make a 45% return on Capital they've got a captive Market in that installed base I like franchise ORS I like people I know Niger Ray was up here earlier talking about Domino's Pizza I own dominoes it's a wonderful business because basically it doesn't put up any Capital the franchise he's put up the capital it gets a royalty from their sales it's a wonderful business uh and so those are the sort of companies that uh that we like
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